Will the Bears Win The Division(NFC North)

I thank my opponent Imabench for accepting debate, He agrees to the rules below and we start

As much as it pains me to say it I don't think the Bears will win the NFC North this year. 

Nagy is a college type playcaller who's plays are complex. But they don't work, it doesn't cater to Trubisky, a medium pass scrambler who like running and RAC. He doesn't run the ball, a key part to this Bears offense. His playstyle really doesn't the team

The Packers Game: Nagy passes the ball up 17 in the 4th. This is time to drain the clock with a weak run GB run defense and a strong running core. Instead he runs screens that cause short gains that lead to 4th downs, setting up Rodgers to win the game. He runs a zone defense when he should be blitzing the ball with his deadly rushing core. he ran a 3 man rush. It was effective because they are beasts, but they should put more pressure.

Another example, the Cardinals game. The Cardinals would blitz to force pressure on Trubisky, so he run a PA play in the end zone. He keeps running PA's event though they result in in-completions and Trubisky has proven to under throw balls like in Week 2 vs the Seahawks. He consistently throws the ball in needed situations. This is an example of a college type coach, who has too much confidence in Trubisky. Let him do what's comfy, then we can throw deep with him.

Concluding, while the Bears have a fearce rush defense, it doesn't stand with other NFC North teams. Looking forward to your args as a Bears fan ;)

To argue why I believe the Bears will win their division, I will break down my arguments into 4 main categories..... The strength of the Bears offense, the strength of the Bears defense, the overall weaknesses of the teams in the Bears division (Packers, Lions, Vikings) and the overall strength of schedule for each team in their division.... 

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1) The Bears Offense

As Con mentions, the Bears have the 12th best Rushing offense in the league. This is important and valuable for a team to have, because a credible rushing threat forces defenses to plan for it, which in turn opens up the ability for the Bears to 1) Throw the ball when they want to since defenses will be more concerned about the run, and 2) Control the game clock by maintaining time of possession and keeping the opponents offense off the field..... In contrast, teams that have only a good passing game without a good running game have historically been underachieving if not outright terrible. In order to have a successful playoff run and good ability to win the division, you need to have a formidable or at least decent rushing attack, which the Bears have.  

As evidence for how even a semi-decent rushing game helps a team win games and perform well, lets look back to 2017... The teams that threw the ball the most often and had the highest percentage of passing plays compared to running plays were the Dolphins (64%), Lions (62%), Buccaneers (62%), Giants (62%), Browns (62%) and the 49ers (61%)....... Of these teams, Only the Browns had a semi-decent rushing attack (18/32 in the NFL in total rushing yards) while all the other teams simply could not run the ball at all (Giants ranked 26/32, Bucs ranked 27/32, Dolphins ranked 29/32, Lions ranked 32/32)

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-yards-per-game?date=2018-02-05 

How did the teams with the worst rushing performances and the highest pass-to-run ratios do in the league? Not only did NONE of these teams win their division, they didn't even come close, with NONE of the teams making the playoffs. Teams that had the worst rushing offenses combined went 29-67 (Lions were the only team that did half decent at 9-7). 

What about teams that did have a good rushing attack in 2017? Of the top 3 teams that had the most rushing yards last year, 2 of those teams were the Jaguars and the Eagles, one of which just hammered the Patriots at home in Jacksonville, and the other having beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/year/2017

In summary: A solid or even half-decent rushing attack is a great thing for an offense to have, and evidence from last year indicate that teams that have even decent ability to run the ball are far more likely to reach the playoffs than teams that rely almost entirely on throwing the ball..... The Bears have a decent rushing attack, and while its true that a team cannot have only a decent rushing game in order to win their division, the Bears do not have ONLY a decent rushing game, which brings us to our next category. 

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2) The Bears Defense 

Con argues that the Bears have a weak secondary, implying that by extension the Bears have a weak defense overall for teams that have a solid pass attack, however, that is ignoring the Bears front line which is the -BEST- in the league.... The Bears are 2nd in the entire league in fewest Rushing Yards allowed per game (just 65 yards per game) and also 5th in the entire league in TOTAL yards allowed per game (289 Yards Per Game). http://www.nfl.com/stats/team 

It also is worth pointing out that having a strong Front 7/Pass Rush does help out a secondary that has some 'weak' spots, as evidenced by how despite having a 'weak' secondary, the Bears still have the 11th best pass-defense in the entire NFL: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

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3) Weaknesses of the Lions, Packers, and Vikings

The lone loss the Bears have so far in the season has come at the hands of the Packers, where a sure-fire Hall of Fame quarterback named Aaron Rodgers led an admittedly impressive comeback over the Bears. Beating Rodgers in Green Bay is always a Herculean task for any football team to pull off, so it can't be held against the Bears that they didn't pull it off (especially since they lost by only 1 point, and it was the 1st game of the season).... Apart from that game, the Bears have not had any other losses and their defense has looked tremendous almost every time they came onto the field..... In the meantime though, the other teams in their division have shown some pretty glaring signs of weakness....

- The Packers lost to the Chiefs in Week 2 by a score of 33 to 21. Now, the Chiefs appear to be the hottest team in the NFL at least on offense, and look like they could win every game this year, but then again, that looked to be the case last year when the Chiefs won their first 5 games.... Then they fizzled down, barely made it into the playoffs, then got swiftly eliminated by a Titans team that went 9-7: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Kansas_City_Chiefs_season#Regular_season..... So while losing to the Chiefs may not look very bad on paper, we've seen the Chiefs appear far stronger than they actually are in the very recent past, so losing to them is not entirely forgivable...... More importantly though, a quick glance at overall rankings and the Packers' rosters reveals that Aaron Rodgers does not have many weapons around him to use. The Packers are currently just 14th in the NFL in Passing Yards per game, and 24th in Rushing Yards per game [1] http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1 [2] http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1. Because their defense is pretty unremarkable, the performance of the Packers depends entirely on how well Aaron Rodgers does. While he was able to overcome the Bears in week 1 at home in Green Bay by a single point, he won't be able to carry his team every game because he simply doesn't have the help around him he needs to do so (see Andrew Luck of the Colts, or Russel Wilson of the Seahawks, or Tom Brady of the Patriots as evidence for this)...

So while its only been 3 weeks into the NFL season so far, the Vikings and the Lions have some MASSIVE issues that have already reared their heads, and the Packers have pretty much no help for Rodgers who will have to carry his team every single week. They (Rodgers) may have beat the Bears once already, but it was in Green Bay in the first game of the season.... Once the Bears have played a few more games and host the Packers in Chicago, things probably wont go easily for Rodgers, or anyone else who the Bears get to play, which brings us to our final argument..... 

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4) Strength of Schedule

One of the best ways to guess which team will win the division is to see how well the teams they are expected to play are doing. Based on last years records, the Bears are already tied for 8th in terms of hardest matchups, where teams the Bears will play had a combined record of 133-123

 - Patriots (Just lost to the Lions who were winless, also can't run the ball and rely entirely on passing) 
 - Jets (1-2, rookie Quarterback)
 - Bills (1-2, rookie Quarterback) 
 - Giants (1-2, atrocious offensive line)
 - Rams (Admittedly this one will be tough, but this one is also in Chicago, which might make the difference)
 - 49ers (Just lost Garoppolo for the season) 

Packers Opponents:
 - Also face the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, and 49ers

 - Rams (This one will be IN Los Angeles, whereas the Bears face them at their home field)
 - Seahawks (Its at Seattle, we've seen the Packers choke against them before) 

 - Cardinals (Packers will probably win this one)
 - Falcons (Terrific offense, capable defense)

Packers and Bears have 5 of the same non-division opponents. If we judge both teams to be about equal based on the score of their game (22-21), the Falcons and Rams games will be incredibly hard for the Packers to win. However, this team depends entirely on Rodgers, so if he falters against in a game against any of these other teams, the Packers won't have anyone to fall back on to bail them out, and they will probably lose. 

Vikings Opponents: 
 - Also play the Jets, Dolphins, and the Patriots.

 - Rams (In LA, their next game after getting torched by the Bills, so good luck)
 - Eagles (In Philly, Defending Champs, good luck)
 - Cardinals (Winnable, though they lost to the Bills so anything is possible)
 - Saints (Saints beat the Falcons who are a lot like the Bills)
 - Seahawks (In Seattle)

Lions Opponents: 

 - Also play the Dolphins and the Bills
 - Cowboys (Winnable)
 - Seahawks (At home, also winnable)
 - Panthers (Have only lost to the Falcons so far, they look pretty good)
 - Rams (They threw 4 interceptions against the Jets, they wont do good against the Rams lets be honest)
 - Cardinals (Winnable)

The Lions look like they have the easiest schedule out of any team in the NFC North now that we've seen a few games be played, but the issue is that the Lions themselves are look really inconsistent.... How do you beat the Patriots in Boston by 16 when 2 weeks earlier you lose 48-17 to the Jets? If the Lions are inconsistent against teams that are struggling, they're not going to do good against teams that have their act together like the Panthers and the Rams, and will probably lose a handful of other winnable games along the way. 

In summary: If I'm nice and say the Bears lose against the Buccaneers and the Rams, the Bears could easily win the 5 other non-divisional games they play this year.... The Packers meanwhile would also probably lose to the Rams, and their offense is not elite in either passing (14th [1]) or Rushing (24th [2]) [1] http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1 [2] http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1, meaning that the Packers won't win all of the rest of their games since they don't have many weapons for Aaron Rodgers, and they don't have a high caliber defense to fall back on to compensate for their average offense the way the Bears can..... In the meantime, the Lions have proven themselves to be wildly inconsistent against even mediocre teams. They will probably lose to the Rams + Panthers, and find a way to lose other games along the way (as evidenced by their implosion against the Jets 48-17)... The Vikings meanwhile face very powerful opponents like the Rams, Saints, and Eagles, all of which look like very tough games they could easily lose after completely choking against the Bills at home. 

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In conclusion: 

1) The Bears have a respectable Run Offense. This allows them to control the clock, open up the passing game, and other teams with good running defenses have done well in the past, while teams that rely more heavily on passing have done horrendous.

2) The Bears defense is terrific... Any perceived 'weakness' in their secondary is compensated for by their front 7, which has allowed them to shut down the running game, almost shut down offenses in general, and has put up numbers that are consistent with previous teams that have won both Divisions and Super Bowls in the recent past

3) Their divisional rivals all have visible signs of weakness.... The Packers rely entirely/exclusively on Aaron Rodgers to win games for them, and he will inevitably falter in one of them. The Lions are wildly inconsistent, and the Vikings just had a historical loss to the Bills and now face the powerhouse Rams and Eagles in back to back weeks

and 4) The Bears have an edge on strength of schedule because they either face easier teams, or have home games against harder teams, whereas Packers face additional tough matchups that more often then not will be on the road, while the Lions and Vikings are inconsistent and will probably lose additional games to beatable opponents in addition to the ones they are already expected to lose to really tough opponents as the season continues. 

I thank my opponent for his arguments. I shall move to rebuttals to his claims
First off I would like to mention that my opponent does not talk about Nagy and his style, therefore my opponents concedes the Nagy debate so extensions for that
-Nagy does not fit Trubisky's playcall
-Nagy's collegian level plays do not work in today's nfl
-Nagy doesn't focus on the Bears solid run game
-Nagy is not a good enough coach in his first year to guide the Bears to an NFC North Division win
Vote CON for Nagy
Anways onto the the rebuttals
I. The Offense AT
My opponent talks about how running game being a vital target. While I agree that run game is vital, the passing game is critical in it's sense as well
Let's look at the teams with the worse pass offense. Chicago, Indy, Buffalo, Baltimore, Carolina. Buffalo ranked #6 is run offense, yet was destroyed by a team with a better run offense, true. But they ALSO had a better a pass defense by a landslide. A pass game is key to winning games with a good rush defense, and that is not simply going to go an do it in a game. That is an example of the pass prevailing over the run
Here are the stats for that game
Taylor 17/37 0 TD 1 INT
Peterman 0/3 0 TD 1 INT
Bortles 17/23 1 TD 0 INT
The weaker running game in this was believe it or not the Jags as Fournette ran 21 carries for 57 yards while McCoy ran 19 times for 75 yards. You clearly see who did better, but who won. It was the team with the better pass offense
Let's dive deeper. New Orleans had the a top 5 pass offense while Carolina had a top 5 worse pass offense, a dramatic difference. With 2 elite QB's, Brees wins this wild card matchup 31-26. Let's look at stats.
Cam Newton 24/40 2TD, 0INT
Drew Brees 23/33 2TD 1INT
All of the Panthers rushes added up for a total of 26 carries for 107 yards while New Orleans had only 19 carries for 44 yards. Yet who still one? The Saints
Yes the saints did score a rushing TD, but one was to a fullback that only ran it 1 yard, fullback being a forgotten position now a days and one from a lucky Panthers miss.
You clearly see teams with consistency are the teams that end up performing better. The most balanced team right now is Detroit right now offense vs defense. If Detroit keeps up the consistent run->pass efficiency, they will take the lead in the division. While the Bears have a top run, that isn't enough to propel them and even in some cases, Rodgers will still be Rodgers and with his insane QB awareness, will find a way to come back.
Every division leader has a QB that is viable as well. Trubisky has the weakest passer rating. Dolphins have Tannehill, Chiefs have Mahomes, Bengals have Dalton, Titans have Mariota, Rams have Goff. These QB have some top tier. Trubisky hasn't proven top tier yet so we can not say he will win the division
II. Defense AT
My opponent argues that a pass-rush would be enough to claim a division title. While that may be true, it needs to be perfected, which Nagy hasn’t done yet. Even if the most extreme cases, a good secondary is key to winning games. They stop big TD’s and make athletic plays. Look at the 2017 Vikings vs Saints game, the rush defense versus the Saints was average being ranked 16th in rush yards allowed, there pass defense was ranked #15, so they were a middle team in general.
The passing game was on fire for Brees
Brees: 25/40, 284yds 3TDs and 2INT
Keenum 25/40 318yds 1TD, 1NT
If we looked at passings TD’s alone, who would win. The Saints right
Wrong, the Vikings did. Off one play that cost the game. The best secondary misses a tackle badly and let’s Stefon Diggs go for a TD. The Saints would have won this game and things would have went differently. But instead, a key collapse in the secondary causes them to lose.
Secondary is key to a pass defense. Rushing a passer may get to a quarterback's head. An experienced QB will be able to handle pressure, shown in the 20-3 choke in the 4th quarter. Did you know all the turnovers were from Kizer, a really bad rookie? None where from Rodgers, a confidence in pocket QB with a wide range of skill sets. The pass rush couldn’t stop in
The secondary can stop a big gain or force key turnovers on short passes. A dropped interception changes the game, even an interception shifts the game. Missed tackles shift games. In that Bears game, 2 secondary collapses happen. The Davante Adams joke that caused a mismatch and the 75 yd Randall Cobb TD after a miss tackle.
There is no denying that a better safety would have made those tackles and intercepted the ball, and that is what wins games.
Even in the Super Bowl, both teams had bad pass defenses each QB having 3 TD’s. In an equally bad secondary match, then it comes down to pass and run defense, where the excel at.
The Vikings have a better secondary so than the Bears, so as evidence proves, they will the division.
III. AT Weakness of Other NFC North
My opponents next argument is the weakness of these teams.
The Packers lost 33-21 in the PreSeason of this year before playing the Bears. The preseason doesn’t really matter unless a major injury happens, so really, anything can happen. They did not lose to them in Week 2, they tied the Minnesota Vikings. Since the PreSeason cannot be applied to how the PRO wins the NFC North clinch, this argument is invalid.
Moving on…
Packers: Rodgers is able to carry the team by himself. They even beat the Bears in this. When Rodgers was on the field for that game, he didn’t turn the ball over, however when Kizer turns the ball over 2 times causing the Bears to dominate. Rodgers changes the tempo of the game. He is like Khalil Mack to the Bears defense. Every around him needs to perform better than him. He was down 20-3 in the third and he still managed to pull off a win, proving as long as he is still in, the Bears will not find a way to stop him
Even so...Rodgers is having a phenomenal season and even better than he has had in the prime 2014-16 days. He is coming off a passer rating of 104.5 with 6 TDs and has a higher pass % than ever and also has nearly ¼ of his passer yards already in Week 3. Rodgers is not slowing down unless he gets injured, so I highly doubt he will get worse
http://www.nfl.com/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/careerstats
He’s even showing sign of a prime Rodgers. With the Packers playing much easier teams, he will for sure have an MVP like season, even playing on practically 1 leg
Vikings: Yes, the Vikings did lose a pretty bad game to the Bills, I am shocked myself. The offense completely shut down. However I don’t think that will define them in the long run. We saw many upsets in Week 3. The Bills also have an average pass defense that can get the job done. It isn’t awful, but it isn’t god tier.
Buffalo won because of the run defense. Without Dalvin Cook, the Vikings best rusher, they were unable to do anything. Buffalo also is #5 for run defense, so they aren’t a trash team is that stance. Also with Kelvin Benjamin and Josh Allen as a good passing duo, they aren’t a bad team in general. They just needed the right time to prance. They lost to some pretty good teams.
The Chargers have faced 2 top 5 teams and put up one hella of a fight with them. They are not an easy win for opponents. The Bills put up points against them too. The Bills have been playing bad and made decisions
Even the Ravens, they have a solid team to start. They lost to a 3-0 Bengals team and beat a solid Broncos team. They are not a bad team in any sense. They are 2nd in the division and right now contenders to win the division.
Remember, Buffalo also has a solid run game when McCoy is not hurt. The O-Line is workable and can make holes and McCoy is a power rush. This just proves when fully healthy, this is team is pretty good.
The Vikings also beat a healthy 49ers team, where they had a solid chance of having a wild card, of course, this is down the toilet with the Jimmy G ACL Tear, they were competitors. When Dalvin Cook comes back, Cousins will have a deadly receiving duo and a good RB with a Top 10 defense. Vikings can easily shut down the Bears defensively. Once Cook is back, momentum will return. The Vikings play Thursday Night vs the Rams. If they find a way to win, I believe this team is a force and for sure will clinch.
Lions: While very unlucky to win, they showed everyone Sunday Night that they can start stuff. And they aren’t a bad team at all. They are a consistent good offensive team that have good receivers and a good RB. They even have the best pass defense in the league right now, giving up the yards
However, they are dead last in run defense, which hasn’t affected them too much. They even have had good games against good teams. The Jets game was to forget.  Even though they are a mildly good team, a brutal loss is unacceptable. They also lost a solid 49ers team AT THE TIME. They put up a good too and the 49ers had a good corner in Sherman, and they performed fairly well.
The Patriots game was to speak for themselves. It was beautiful. They stopped Brady and thumped in pass.
They are still contenders if they fix the broken run game.
IV. Schedule
I don’t fully understand this, as 14/16 games we play are the same team, but i’ll respond anyway as you only do a part of the schedule
For the Bears, I will give my in depth analysis on the teams provided
Bucs(FitzMagic did lose, however he made a WTF comeback that almost beat them. They won in NOLA and they are a (1-0) away)
Pats(it’s Tom Brady, he will torch their secondary)
Jets(agree)
Bills(agree, but don’t count out)
Giants(agree)
Rams(a tough team in no way will they win. The defense and offense is too much. 3 amazing receivers, this game might be less close than we think)
49ers(unless they find a solid qb to replace, this is an L)
Dolphins( I hope they win and they might. If Tannehill plays like this, he could beat us)
Packers
Seahawks(yea they are known to choke, but the Seahawks are dramatically worse this season I have them winning)
Falcons(agree)
Rams(will get smoked)
Cardinals(win)
Dolphins(pretty sure they will win, cmon, they are going to run out of steam, Bears play them when they are going to be shaky)
Vikings
Rams(This could go either way, but they are going to lose if Cook is not healthy
Eagles(I don't know but I don’t think they play them soon. They were close last year. I think they will take the reins off an win with a good QB this time)
Saints(win here too, I think they can pull off a win vs a ehh saints d)
Panthers(win, too inconsistent)
Seahawks(win)
And Lions same thing as you.
Overall the Packers have a schedule that they can win. I think it is possible that they pull of a division win. The Vikings can win all these games mentioned too
I thank my opponent, looking forward to round 2

First things first: I apologize for my mistake I made last round citing the Packers-Chiefs game in the preseason where the Packers lost... I somehow mistook that game for the Packers-Redskins game that took place in week 3, where the Packers lost 17-31, as evidence for why Aaron Rodgers cant simply will his team to win every game in the season....

Second: I do drop the Nagy argument made by Con because the terms of the debate were that whoever accepts the debate can only make 4 arguments. I wanted to introduce two of my own, and therefore decided to respond to Con's 2 strongest arguments and concede the third since the third argument is based mostly on personal opinion rather than tangible facts and statistics. 

Lets continue :D

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To boil down this argument: 

- Con agrees that a running game is vital, but argues that a passing game is also critical to win the division. 

- I concede that a passing game is nice to have, but prove its not ultimately necessary to have one to win the division if you have a terrific defense to compensate

As evidence for why having a great passing game isn't always necessary to win the division, lets look at the 2017 teams that had highly ranked passing offenses

Chargers = #1 in Passing = Did not win division, did not even make playoffs
Buccaneers = #4 in Passing = Did not win division, did not make playoffs

Lions = #6 in Passing = Did not win division, did not make playoffs

49ers = #9 in Passing = Did not win division, did not make playoffs

Opinion..... The Bears pass rush ability alone has been enough to put the Bears into the top 5 teams in the league for overall defense, which is more than good enough to help them clinch a division title. 

In 2017, of the top 10 teams in the league in overall defense, half of them went on to win their division (Vikings, Jaguars, Eagles, Steelers, Falcons).... Of the teams that didn't, 3 of them failed to because there was another divisional rival that also had a top 10 defense (Cowboys -> Eagles... Bears -> Vikings.... Panthers -> Falcons) http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2017&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=true&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&qualified=false

That means only TWO teams in 2017 had a top 10 Defense but didn't win their division in which they clearly had the best defense in their division.... Considering that half of the teams with a top passing attack in 2017 couldn't win their division, this indicates that teams with better defenses do far better in clinching divisions than teams with great passing attacks, which works against teams like the Packers and more in favor of teams like the Bears. 

The main flaw in Con's argument that the Vikings have a better secondary than the Bears is that he cites instances from just a single game to prove his point. Applying instances from an individual game to a team for the entire season is just not practical in determining how the team will perform.... Players have bad games, nagging injuries they are still recovering from, while others over perform and have the games of their lives. In order to get a good idea of how a team will actually perform as the season goes on, the better metric to use is evaluate team stats from the 3 games completed so far, which offers a larger sample size with better accuracy for how teams actually are. 

Furthermore, lets examine teams that have the best secondary's and see how they ultimately did in winning their division. 

Top 10 teams from 2017 for fewest passing yards allowed per game (aka Best Secondary's) and how they finished the season:

Jaguars = Won Division.......... (Ranked 6th in total Offense)

Vikings = Won Division.......... (Ranked 11th in total Offense and also ranked 2nd in Rush Defense)

Chargers = Lost Division, Missed Playoffs

Broncos = Lost Division, Missed Playoffs

Steelers = Won Division 

Seahawks = Lost Division, Missed Playoffs

Bears = Lost Division, Missed Playoffs

Bengals = Lost Division, Missed Playoffs

Redskins = Lost Division, Missed Playoffs

Ravens = Lost Division, Missed Playoffs

You cant just ignore games in which teams do bad, or rather horrific, just because it undermines your argument. They lost to a fairly bad Jets team (ranked 29th in previous link) by a whopping score of 48-17. That cannot just be ignored..... It indicates that the Lions as a team are inconsistent at best, and that they will probably lose both to teams firing on all cylinders like the Rams while also finding ways to lose other games to more beatable opponents. The Bears meanwhile do not have a bad loss this far into the season, which if they keep up gives them great odds to win games against the many average teams they will face this year. 

- Vikings

We can't just hope/assume teams will improve in the long run though, we have to look at them for how they are now. The Vikings lost to the Bills, considered the worst team in the NFL, at home by a score of 27 to 6.... You're not going to be able to win the division if you only put up 6 points against the Bills in your own stadium.  

The Vikings are ranked 21st in total defense and couldn't even shut down a Bills team that was starting QB Josh Allen in his very first game..... If they can't hold back a Bills team still getting on its feet, they are not going to 'easily' shut down the Bears offense, especially since the Bears rank better than the Bills in both Rushing, Passing, and Overall Defense (Bears rank 12th in Rushing and 28th in Passing...... Bills rank 19th in Rushing and 30th in Passing).... 

So if the Vikings can lose to a Bills team that is 5 ranks worse than the Bears on both Offense and Defense by 3 touchdowns, they will not 'easily' beat the Bears by any metric.... If their game against the Bills is anything to go by, they'll probably lose to the Bears by an even LARGER margin, since the Bears are better than the Bills in every metric, and the Bills just throttled the Vikings IN Minnesota. 

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Since we are on Round 3, we will do an overview of the topic(no rebuttals just finals short & concise statements to summarize the debate.

I. The offense has a strong run game and it is very good itself. However good Super Bowl winning team always that great balance. The Patriots lost because they did not have a good balance of run and pass. The Falcons lost because of the pass, and the Panthers lost because of the pass. The Bears do not have an equal balance while teams like the Vikings and Week 3 Lions prove they can rely on run and pass. VOTE CON  balance

II.  Secondary is key to win games. It is a miss or score for the offense and with no key secondaries, a pass just put in there by a Brady or Rodgers like quarterback causes big yard gain-age and instant big yardage gains to change the momentum of the game. A good offense line stops the pass enough so the QB doesn't feel pressured. A secondary is key to winning games, therefore VOTE CON on secondary magnitude

III. Extend all of Nagy arguments. VOTE CON

IV. Extend the weaknesses. The Vikings most recent loss was nearly a win after a hard fought offensive performance. They put up a good fight, and with Dalvin Cook back, momentum is tracking on the Vikings side now. The Lions proved they are a team to be messed with. While the odds of them winning are low, the Week 3 game proves that Lions can be a dark horse and ruin some standings. The Packers have Rodgers. The defense could not hold strong and some even say the refs blew that game. Rodgers carried them Week 1, why can't he do it again with his MVP like numbers. VOTE CON on Probability

V. The schedule is nearly the same for each team. The Vikings had the best probability for beating the Rams in the NFC North and they only by 1 score. The rest of the teams the Vikings play are accessible wins. Even the Packers and the Lions.  The Lions just pulled off a major upset at home, proving they can stun teams at home. 

VOTE CON in this debate..

I thank my opponent and can not wait to hear it's overview, final arguments

(Quick heads up to all voters, the rankings I used from NFL dot com for all rounds up to this point were recently updated because of the games played this most recent Sunday... So for 2017 rankings, the teams may have moved up and down from where they were prior to this most recent week of games being played... Everything should be about the same to where they were before, but won't be exactly the same any longer. All arguments will still have merit to them)

As stated previously, teams with terrific passing games routinely fail to win their division, let alone make the playoffs at all. The Bears do not have an above average passing game, but they have a good rushing game they've been able to rely on every week this season, which is good enough to enable them to win their division when combined with their stellar defense..... An offense doesn't have to be balanced in order for a team to win their division, it just has to be good enough, which the Bears certainly have, since other teams in the past with worse-ranking offenses have gone on to win their division. 

Secondary is NOT the key to winning games, as evidenced by how teams with the fewest passing yards allowed routinely fail to win their division or even make the playoffs. Con completely ignored all arguments from the previous round that statistically prove a good secondary is critical to winning a division.... What HAS been statistically proven is that teams with overall great defenses routinely go on to win their divisions, and the Bears have exactly that, a great overall defense (now ranked 4th overall in the league and 2nd in rush defense in the league) 

The Vikings are now on a 2 game losing streak heading into Philly to face the defending Super Bowl champions after losing to the Rams and the Bills. They are a very inconsistent team that loses close games to good opponents and loses very badly to bad teams. No game on their schedule is an 'easy win' anymore after losing to the Bills, showing how inconsistent they are while now 2-2...... The Lions are just as inconsistent after losing to the Jets and Cowboys despite managing to beat the Patriots, dropping them to 1-3 and dead last in the division..... The Packers only have Rodgers who isn't perfect, as evidenced by their loss to the Redskins.....

The Vikings already have 2 losses and still have to face the Eagles, Saints, and Patriots IN New England..... The Lions are now 1-3, putting them dead last in the division, and still have to face the Rams and the Panthers.... The Packers have to face the Falcons and the Rams, and have also lost to an average-at-best Redskins teams meaning they will likely lose to other teams along the way as well as good teams that are better balanced than the Packers are......

Only the Bears do not have a bad loss on the season, their lone loss by 1 point to the Packers in the very first week IN Lambeau..... Since then, the Bears have not lost a game, and recently DEMOLISHED the Buccaneers who were considered a good team up to this point. That leaves only the Rams as their toughest game remaining, since all other teams on their schedule are 2-2, 1-3, or are the Dolphins who just got torched by the Patriots..... The Bears now have the easiest remaining schedule of all teams in their division, with only one game going to not be in their favor and assuming all teams in the Division split games against each other. 

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For these reasons, the Bears will win their division. Their defense is outstanding, their offense is good enough, other teams have shown to be inconsistent, and the Bears remaining schedule against other teams is now the easiest out of anyone in their division. 

Thanks for reading! Remember to vote ONLY for argument points!