Instigator / Pro

1294

rating

debates

18.0%

won

Topic

#1371

China will be the dominant power of the 21st century

Status

Finished

The debate is finished. The distribution of the voting points and the winner are presented below.

Winner & statistics

Better arguments

Better sources

Better legibility

Better conduct

After 1 vote and with 3 points ahead, the winner is...

Trent0405

Tags

Politics

Parameters

Publication date: 09.08.2019 12:35PM
Last updated date: 09.18.2019 07:27AM
Type: Standard
Number of rounds: 5
Time for argument: Two weeks
Max argument characters: 10,000
Voting period: One week
Point system: Multiple criterions
Voting system: Open

Contender / Con

Trent0405

1711

rating

debates

84.85%

won

Description

China has been growing so fast for so long and the train it wont stop going no it wont slow down no way to slow down, and we are gasping our last arrogant racist breath of eurocentrism

Round 1

billbatard

09.09.2019 05:11AM

Pro

China has found a winning system , it wasn't Communism that failed but most agree that whatever they are doing it isnt traditional western Free market capitalism, depending on your point of view it is either a state directed form of Capitalism, or a market driven form of Socialism, i think they are one in the same, a bit Capitalist a bit Socialist and rolling along like a rocket https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WKLskz1w9k&t=226s

Trent0405

09.09.2019 09:02PM

Con

My opponents points are irrelevant to the resolution, if he disagrees he is free to state why.

Also, I'd implore my opponent to state his case and do rebuttals in R2, although you're under no obligation to do so.

I'll be saying there isn't enough evidence to prove China will be the dominant power of the 21st century because of America's spot as the strongest nation in the world. As a result, I'd implore the voters to believe the BOP is on Pro.

Looking to the future

Population

The Chinese population is only the 159th fastest growing population, with a fertility rate of 1.62, meaning the future of China will be very old as a result.

Economic growth

The Chinese economy is vastly over rated, the average American growth rate is about 3.22%, but it grew by a staggering 4.1% last, if we compare this to China, there average growth rate is 9.61%, but now it's fallen to 6.7%. You may say china has got the edge, but lets do some math(down below). Also, China is very much reliant on it's exports, contributing to just under 20% of it's GDP, well seeing that China has started exporting less after years of increasing exports, it's clear this could result in some problems for it's economy. Also, remember my 6.7% GDP growth figure I pointed out, well just recently this growth dropped to 6.2% from January 2019 to July 2019, Chinese growth is still continuing to fall.

MATH

The American Economy was 19.39 trillion dollars large at the time when a 4.1% growth rate was applied, while the Chinese was at 12.24 trillion(Source).

Okay, what's 4.1 percent of 19.390 trillion? Well it's 794,990,000,000.

Now what is 6.7% of 12.240 trillion, well it's 820,080,000,000.

So an incredibly small difference.

///////////////////////////////////////

So, what does this show you, the American growth is going up while Chinese growth plummets, this slight lead for China will be gone if this keeps up.

So my question to Pro is, how is a declining economy that's currently smaller than a growing one, going to come out on top?

OIL

Oil is a big reason why Britain was no longer a superpower after WW2, they just couldn’t compete with America and the Soviet Union on that front, well I can guarantee this will be a decisive factor in the conflict between America and China as well, and it won’t end well for China seeing how they produce 11 million more barrels per day.

Civil Unrest

China is in the top 10 nations most vulnerable to extreme civil unrest. Note how America is absent from the list.

Military

America's military is and will be, better than the Chinese military. The Chinese population continues to age and the Chinese government was forced to lower it's standards to broaden the amount of people they can recruit, although Americans aren't the healthiest at least when they join the military they get proficient equipment. A Chinese solider gets $1,532 spent on it's equipment, but an American solider gets $17,500 for it's euipment.

Innovation

America is way more innovative than China, this will further assist the Americans in the future economically.

I'm afraid I'll need to cut this short, but I've explained why the Chinese economy won't pass the American economy and the problems with the Chinese military

In R2 I'll go deeper into the military of China, and acctually right 10,000 charachters.

Round 2

billbatard

09.10.2019 01:32AM

Pro

The people of the united states are at each others throats, America compared to it heyday is in decline , China's economy has slowed However it still grows at a rate about double ours U.S. GDP growth will slow to 2.1% in 2019 from 3% in 2018. It will be 2% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. That's according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 19, 2019.

US Economic Outlook: For 2019 and Beyond - The Balance

https://www.thebalance.com › us-economic-outlook-3305669

Statistics
GDP
$14.2 trillion (nominal; 2019 est.) $27.3 trillion (PPP; 2019 est.)
GDP rank
2nd (nominal; 2018) 1st (PPP; 2018)
GDP growth
6.7% (2016) 6.8% (2017) 6.6% (2018e) 6.2% (2019f)
GDP per capita
$10,153 (nominal; 2019 est.) $19,520 (PPP; 2019 est.) actually about 3 times as fast really, face it we are toast

Trent0405

09.10.2019 05:13AM

Con

My opponents link doesn't state anything he has claimed, but I'll address it.

Looking toward GDP forecasts isn't smart.

One example of this failure was when we at some point projected Japan would pass America economically, it turned out to be completely wrong, there is no reason they couldn't be wrong here considering we're projecting China to pass America by 2030.

Note many economic measures where America destroys China-

China ranks 88th when it comes to a citizens disposable salary after taxes and after accounting for cost of living, while America ranks 13th.

America Also ranks 13th for GDP per capita, while China is 79th, further proving we can't be sure they'll pass America, China is heavily reliant on it's population.

You point to how fast it's growing, well that's only part true, the reason why China's GDP and GDP per capita are growing at higher rates is because the economy is just smaller, if we look at the real numbers it's a different story.

In 2017 the GDP per capita was $59,927 for America, well it rose from there to $62,641, a growth of $2,714, China's rose from $8,759 in 2017 to $9,770, a growth of 1,011 dollars, So even though Americans improved more, it doesn't matter, to assume these growth rats will keep up for China in the future is sort of similar to saying India will continue to grow by 7%.

This period of time for China can be compared to America in the 80s, America was growing by 5, 6, 7 percent consistently until there economy became so big that growth wasn't sustainable, we can't rule out this not happening for China as we see their growth plummet the same way we saw America's plummet in 2001 and 1985.

The people of the united states are at each others throats

Well it must be way worse in China considering there civil unrest as seen in R1.

So, there just isn't enough evidence to conclusively state that America will be surpassed by China.

Round 3

billbatard

09.10.2019 07:40AM

Pro

Millions of millionaires: China will be a top 10 nation for uber-rich by 2020

A million more millionaires by then, forecasts report, as growth in number of super-wealthy outstrips all other economies over past year I'll stick my neck out once again

and i might add this is pretty good for a "socialist' nation and a good sign of confidence in the Chinese economy

The Credit Suisse report said the mainland's middle class had continued its rapid expansion. The report said its 109 million middle class people now held US$7.3 trillion in financial assets and real estate - a jump of about 330 per cent since 2000. Chinas middle class is exploding i can think of nothing more evocative of success and prosprity than a healthy thriving middle class https://www.scmp.com/news/china/money-wealth/article/1867321/china-be-top-ten-nation-us-dollar-millionaires-2020

Trent0405

09.11.2019 06:34AM

Con

I can actually use your source to help my point.

In the same time that China gained 1 million millionaires, America gained 4.9 million despite a much smaller population, this growth for China isn't impressive, China gained 1 million millionaires in the same time France did, and Japan did, and note that both Japan and France have more millionaires and less people

The Chinese Middle class

You state,

middle class people now held US$7.3 trillion in financial assets and real estate - a jump of about 330 per cent since 2000

Using percentages isn't ideal, one example of percentages being misleading is with Chinese wages which did rise 64% from 2011, but only to $3.60 hourly, percentages can be misleading, your source observing the year 2000 is also interesting seeing that that was near the beginning of China's rise.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The Chinese populous isn’t all that well off despite it’s growth, 11.2% of the Chinese population lives off less than $1.90 a day, while 27.2% live on less than $3.10 a day, this is much better than in 1981 where 88.3% of China lived on less than $1.90, but this improvement doesn’t tell me they’ll pass America, just that they've improved, but the world overall is getting wealthier.

Corrections

2 mistakes I made I want to correct, I said

well I can guarantee this will be a decisive factor in the conflict between America and China as well, and it won’t end well for China seeing how they produce 11 million more barrels per day.

I meant America produced 11 million more barrels per day, my source backs this up.

I went on to say.

America was growing by 5, 6, 7 percent consistently until there economy became so big that growth wasn't sustainable, we can't rule out this not happening for China as we see their growth plummet the same way we saw America's plummet in 2001 and 1985.

I meant we can't rule out this happening to China, not we can't rule out this not happening to China. My apologies for the mistakes.

Round 4

billbatard

09.11.2019 07:01AM

Pro

the growth of chinese millionares from what it was 5 years ago however is impressive no where else in the world is it growing so fast and benifiting such a large population

Trent0405

09.11.2019 07:14AM

Con

the growth of Chinese millionaires from what it was 5 years ago however is impressive no where else in the world is it growing so fast and benifiting such a large population

Well there is a problem with just looking at the rate somethings increasing by, In order for America to keep up with China's growth rate they would've had to increase there millionaires by about 12 million millionaires instead of it's actual growth of 4.9 million millionaires. So, in order for America to keep up with China's growth rate than America would have to grow 1,200% more than China(Source).

Round 5

billbatard

09.11.2019 07:19AM

Pro

if you look at the stats i porvided you will see they are catching up and very fast i might add

Trent0405

09.11.2019 07:27AM

Con

#10

But in terms of actual growth they are falling behind, it should be especially concerning that China with a larger population can't beat out America and falls behind them consistently.

My opponent hasn't proven that China will pass America as the strongest nation world wide, I have proven that we aren't sure if China will pass America and dominate the 21st century.

Barney

09.11.2019 10:15AM

Criterion

Pro

Tie

Con

Points

Better arguments

3 point(s)

Better sources

2 point(s)

Better legibility

1 point(s)

Better conduct

1 point(s)

Reason:

BoP is on pro, but his opening was relevant.

For this type of debate, the contender's job is the cast doubt. He missed the obvious thing of introducing say India as a potential country to become dominant; this leaves the debate as just China v. USA in terms of growth rates...

This debate could have been better with some more direct comparisons (fertility rate in China is low, how is it in the US or India?), and the implementation of better forecasting techniques. The oil issue was a pretty good one for the USA (the explanation of Britain in particular). The GDP growth of China was remarkable, but the rate of slowing suggests it is not sustainable to carry it past the USA. The civil unrest is a valid threat to any predictions about China's future, particularly with the source putting it side by side with knife attacks in Palestine. And finally the number of millionaires (which con countered with a population comparison, making it a problem of greater inequality brought on by the communist system) even if unchallenged, would not override everything else.

In short, con used evidence to cast sufficient doubt on the prediction.