2022 midterm predictions

Author: thett3

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ILikePie5
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@thett3
Another respected polling outlet showing Biden posting terrible numbers in deep blue states, this time in New Jersey. 43% approve, 49% disapprove. The state level polls point to a much bleaker picture than the national polls do. Biden needs to find a way to fix this or 2022 is going to be a complete bloodbath 
A greater and greater number of Americans are starting to realize that inflation is becoming a bigger and bigger problem. I doubt Ciatarelli wins in New Jersey, but if Youngkin wins in Virginia, I’d be mighty scared if I were a Democrat.


thett3
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@ILikePie5
A greater and greater number of Americans are starting to realize that inflation is becoming a bigger and bigger problem. I doubt Ciatarelli wins in New Jersey, but if Youngkin wins in Virginia, I’d be mighty scared if I were a Democrat.
I have my doubts that these state polls showing absolutely atrocious approval for Biden are accurate but we’re going to have a giant clue next Tuesday. I can hardly wait…
thett3
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I have my doubts that these state polls showing absolutely atrocious approval for Biden are accurate but we’re going to have a giant clue next Tuesday
For what it’s worth, the exit poll in Virginia had Biden approval at 45% approve and 54% disapprove. That’s about in line with what the pre-election polling was saying and suggests that his approval nationwide is even worse than the polling for dems. 

Bright spot for dems: the Republican candidate only won by two points, meaning that a lot of people who disapproved of Biden still aren’t ready to vote for even a very good Republican candidate like Youngkin. However losing a state Biden won by double digits a year ago can’t be spun as good news in any way 
Greyparrot
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@thett3
I am convinced McAuliffe would have easily won if he didn't make the race about a guy that wasn't on the ballot.
sadolite
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I don't trust the integrity of the election process so I cant make any predictions other than Democrats winning just enough to stay in control of power.

74 days later

thett3
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Whats everyone think now? I’ve changed my prediction to 53 GOP senate seats and 235 house seats 

191 days later

thett3
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Bumping this. Only three months to go! What does everyone think now? Crazy to think that on Earth II Trump narrowly won re-election with the weakest trifecta in history, got nothing done, and Republicans are facing a historic blowout
Double_R
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@thett3
Republicans will definitely hold the house. The political climate and party-in-power effect give them the advantage, but the part the Dems won't be able to overcome is the gerrymandering. Funny how the party claiming elections are rigged maintain a systemic advantage.

I predict the Dems hold the Senate. The republican candidates in the crucial races are complete whack jobs and polling shows this.
Double_R
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@thett3
Republicans are facing a historic blowout
Is this what they're saying on right wing media?
FLRW
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Voters in Red state  Kansas delivered a win for abortion rights activists on Tuesday with 58.8 percent voting "no" in a statewide referendum on removing abortion protections from the state constitution. With 95 percent of votes reported, the "yes" vote came in at 41.2 percent.
thett3
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@Double_R
I predict the Dems hold the Senate. The republican candidates in the crucial races are complete whack jobs and polling shows this.
Polling usually favors dems in the summer for some reason but I agree they have a chance which I didn’t think they did until recently. GOP continues the trend of throwing away seats on bad candidates lol

Is this what they're saying on right wing media?
I don’t know since I only get my news from Twitter lol. But imagine Trump in office right now. It’s not like the inflation wouldn’t have happened, the Afghanistan withdrawal probably would’ve been just as chaotic or more, gas prices might not have gotten as bad but still would’ve gone up a lot. And he would still be pulling his ridiculous antics, having lost the popular vote twice in a row and by a bigger margin the second time. He would be so unpopular. In politics I say it’s universally better to win than to lose but if you HAD to take an L 2020 was probably the year 
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@thett3
 53 GOP senate seats and 235 house seats 
Might be more depending how the markets react to investment tax hikes.

Cause nothing says "recession relief" quite like investment taxes.... loud and clear.

87 days later

thett3
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Final call bros, place your chips I say 

52-48R senate 
235 R house 
Generic ballot R + 3.5
thett3
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If his approval follows the same pattern as Trumps it will recover to around that number by November 2022, and on the higher end. Maybe 45-46%. There’s no telling if he will follow Trumps pattern but Trump was also at an all time low around this time in 2017
This take has NOT aged like fine wine, Biden’s approval is still stuck around 42-43% 
thett3
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Based on the spending and early vote Dems seem to be collapsing in Florida, New York, and California which other than Florida I wouldn’t have expected. Those are all enormous states so if true it’s possible they are holding up okay elsewhere. It would be weird if that collapse didn’t impact neighboring Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada but it’s possible 


Big caveat: the spending of both parties indicated a blue wave in 2020 that never happened. The parties have access to better information that the rest of us but they can still be wrong 
SirAnonymous
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My guess is the Republicans take the house with 230+ seats and the senate with 52-53 seats. This will create political gridlock, which is my favorite type of political situation. I find the competition interesting. I'm not a fan of either team, so I'll have some popcorn ready and watch the fun!
thett3
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@SirAnonymous
I’m not a fan of the Republicans but I really dislike the Democrats so I’m rooting for the GOP. I also really enjoy watching the competition. I actually took the day after the election off work lol because I know I’ll be up all night 
RationalMadman
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I predict propaganda and groupthink get the job done.

If you think that refers to one side only, you are part of the problem.
Greyparrot
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@thett3
Both parties are so fractured right now with the progressive socialists warring with the neolibs and the populist freedomlovers fighting with the warhawk neocons.

You have to wonder if having a party majority with the current 2 party system means anything anymore.
IwantRooseveltagain
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@thett3
I’m not a fan of the Republicans but I really dislike the Democrats so I’m rooting for the GOP. I also really enjoy watching the competition. I actually took the day after the election off work lol because I know I’ll be up all night 
Is this another example of your stimulating, intellectually minded threads?

Greyparrot
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Is this another example of your stimulating, intellectually minded threads?
You don't seem stimulated :(
thett3
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@IwantRooseveltagain
Is this another example of your stimulating, intellectually minded threads?
Why don’t you do something interesting for once and make a prediction about next week?
IwantRooseveltagain
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@thett3
Why don’t you do something interesting for once and make a prediction about next week?
I predict you will still be a fool next week.
bmdrocks21
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@IwantRooseveltagain
I predict you will still be a fool next week.

You got so butthurt he called you out lmao
Greyparrot
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@bmdrocks21
Thett doesn't normally "own the libs" but I guess every man has a breaking point.
ILikePie5
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Oooh i need to update this
Sidewalker
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@ILikePie5
PA - Parnell vs Fetterman —> GOP Pickup

You've got Sean Parnell winning in Pensylvania, and then what, Pat Toomey stays in office and Pensylvania get's a third Senate seat, is that how they pick up one? 

Is this a new rule or something, if somebody who isn't actually running wins the election the encumbant stays in office and you get another Senate Seat? 

That's very interesting, don't tell me, let me guess, you graduated fromTrump University with a major in Politics, right?
ILikePie5
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@thett3
House goes to GOP: 243 - 192 

Senate: 

AK - Murkowski (R) vs Tshibaka (R) —> GOP Hold
AL - Britt (R) vs Boyd (D) —> GOP Hold
AR - Boozman (R) vs James (D) —> GOP Hold
AZ - Masters (R) vs Kelly (D) —> GOP Pickup*
CA - Padilla (D) vs Meuser (R) —> Dem Hold
CO - Bennett (D) vs O’Dea (R) —> Dem Hold
CT - Blumenthal (D) vs Leavy (R) —> Dem Hold
FL - Rubio (R) vs Demings (D) —> GOP Hold
GA - Walker (R) vs Warnock (D) —> GOP Pickup
HI - Schatz (D) vs McDermott (R) —> Dem Hold
IA - Grassley (R) vs Franken (D) —> GOP Hold
ID - Crapo (R) vs Roth (D) —> GOP Hold
IL - Duckworth (D) vs Salvi (R) —> Dem Hold
IN - Young (R) vs McDermott (D) —> GOP Hold
KS - Moran (R) vs Holland (D) —> GOP Hold
KY - Paul (R) vs Booker (D) —> GOP Hold
LA - Kennedy (R) vs Chambers (D) —> GOP Hold
MD - Van Hollen (D) vs Chaffee (R) —> Dem Hold
MO - Schmitt (R) vs Valentin (D) —> GOP Hold
NC - Budd (R) vs Beasley (D) —> GOP Hold
ND - Hoeven (R) vs Christiansen (D) —> GOP Hold
NH - Bolduc (R) vs Hassan (D) —> GOP Pickup
NV - Laxalt (R) vs Cortez Masto (D)  —> GOP Pickup
NY - Schumer (D) vs Pinion (R) —> Dem Hold
OH - Vance (R) vs Ryan (D) —> GOP Hold
OK - Lankford (R) vs M. Horn (D) —> GOP Hold
OK(S) - Mullin (R) vs K. Horn (D) —> GOP Hold
OR - Wyden (D) vs Perkins (D) —> Dem Hold
PA - Oz (R) vs Fetterman (D) —> GOP Hold
SC - Scott (R) vs Matthews (D) —> GOP Hold
SD - Thune (R) vs Bengs (D) —> GOP Hold
UT - Lee (R) vs McAdams (I) —> GOP Hold
VT - Welch (D) vs Malloy (D) —> Dem Hold
WA - Murray (D) vs Smiley (R) —> Dem Hold
WI - Johnson (R) vs Barnes (D) —> GOP Hold

Ask me question 

ILikePie5
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@Sidewalker
You've got Sean Parnell winning in Pensylvania, and then what, Pat Toomey stays in office and Pensylvania get's a third Senate seat, is that how they pick up one?  
I made a mistake on the pickup, which I will happily admit. At that point in time it looked like Parnell would be the nominee as well. This thread is like a year old lol.

Is this a new rule or something, if somebody who isn't actually running wins the election the encumbant stays in office and you get another Senate Seat?  

That's very interesting, don't tell me, let me guess, you graduated fromTrump University with a major in Politics, right?
Lol I would love to hear your predictions and your reasoning behind them
ILikePie5
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@thett3
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@Double_R
Which senate seats do y’all have flipping vs staying the same