Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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Casey_Risk
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@Mikal
Your instant reply felt like you were waiting to be mentioned before posting. 
If that was the case, I would have responded right when Savant tagged me, and not a couple hours later.
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@Casey_Risk
I mentioned it above. He is actively posting but has not given anything informative or taken any hard stances with more than enough content to do so. He is also one of the people more likely to fuck up a fake claim, or be inconsistent as scum. 

Lack of taking a stance, pushing anyone, thoughtful analysis or doing anything to move the game forward seems like coasting or scum behavior 

Mix that in with, I think if he is scum, he is one of the scum to likely slip. 

I think he is the best target. 
Mikal
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@Casey_Risk
Savant had you as null, I was the first one suggesting we pressure you or earth if I recall. 
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@Mikal
In the past, and as shown in this game, earth hasn’t gone very in-depth and usually gives short responses. That kind of play could come from either town or scum, but it's hard to get a solid read without more active engagement. Mafia can win games by coasting, and while earth has been consistently contributing, he hasn’t taken any hard stances or pushed his own reads. It feels like he’s saying “I’m here,” but not “I’m locked in.”
You're right about all of that, but at the same time, that's why Earth is one those easy pushes in general - the ones that mafia like to try and push because they can often do so without seeming very scummy. That's why I also tend to lightly scumread the players who do so. Case in point, in CoD mafia, I myself pointed out that Moozer is another one of those players, although knowing that my scum partner (Mharman) was actually planning on making him a mislynch. It didn't end up going that way, but the mafia won anyway in the end.

Not that I'm saying your reasoning is bad or anything, and I'll cut you a little slack because you haven't played here in a while. But also, you do know Earth’s general playstyle as you yourself just said.

As for Banana, I still lean town on her for reasons I've already explained: her behavior hasn't noticeably deviated from her typical town play, but it is different from what I would expect of her as scum.
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@Mikal
How dare you? I think my scum play I had when I was last scum 10 games ago was fine. If you want my claim, just say so. Were you tunneling this hard last game?
Casey_Risk
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Okay, now #215 does make me raise my eyebrows. I don't think I've ever seen Earth act this genuinely offended before as town.
Savant
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@Earth
@Mikal
@Casey_Risk
Something I noticed, makes Mikal tied for my #1 town read: Mikal tends to be more confrontational as town (here, here, here, here) and more laid-back as scum (here, here, here).
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@Mikal
Savant had you as null, I was the first one suggesting we pressure you or earth if I recall. 
Technically true, but when Savant tagged me for the first time, he said this:

I want to see yall post before I give my first set of reads. What do you think of the players that have posted so far?
If I had just been lurking and waiting to be mentioned, I would have shown up then.

Also, it's worth bringing this up: the DP was only about 4 hours old when I showed up. It's not like I was really that much of a latecomer.
Mikal
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@Casey_Risk
Inactives or lack of content is always an easy push. As mafia or town, but if you don't address the issue early it makes it harder late game. 

How would you solve it? 

You don't pressure him, and he just sticks around to the end of the game without ever taking a hard stance and then you are trying to decipher whether he is town or scum with nothing to go off of and it's lylo. 

He is exhibiting behavior that is not towny, and on top of that is not actively taking stances. That is where you put pressure early so it's

1) easier to solve late game
2) easier for him to slip if you lock him into something early


Casey_Risk
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Also, I just want to say that I love the amount of effort Savant is putting into this game (sincerely).
Earth
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@Casey_Risk
Why does everyone seem to misinterpret my jokes? That was clearly tongue in cheek.
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@Mikal
How would you solve it? 
I guess I was just looking for something a little bit more than "Earth is acting like Earth", especially since I myself have had false scum reads on him in the past, multiple times. That being said, I'm actually leaning scum on him now as I just mentioned, so I'm okay with joining this wagon.

VTL Earth
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@Earth
Why does everyone seem to misinterpret my jokes? That was clearly tongue in cheek.
Sorry, it wasn't very obvious to me.
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@Mikal
Alright. Follow up question, why put inactives on the list and above the very slightly sus? Moozer and Austin haven't even been on yet at all.
You didn't answer this question btw.
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@Casey_Risk
I did. Sorry back on my phone and running to town for a while. But if you scroll up. I outline it pretty I. Depth. 


Can’t scroll back here but it outlines why I am using that Poe 
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@Casey_Risk
Okay, now #215 does make me raise my eyebrows. I don't think I've ever seen Earth act this genuinely offended before as town.
In my experience, Earth tends to be more guarded as town and even catty at times (though probably in good fun). I looked at his old games to confirm this. Look at his first two posts as town in Call of Duty mafia here and here. Meanwhile as scum in Recycled Roles, he gave a compliment early on and was fairly polite.
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@Mikal
I did. Sorry back on my phone and running to town for a while. But if you scroll up. I outline it pretty I. Depth. 
Are you talking about #209? Because you didn't really answer the question there. You do explain pretty thoroughly why you have Earth, Banana and I listed in the order we're listed, but you don't address the inactives (Moozer and Austin) at all. Lurking is scummy, sure, but being a complete and total no-show is NAI imo, and that's the category they fall into. That makes them null reads by default. If you're trying to PoE lynch, then it makes sense to try and push players you don't have a solid read on otherwise, but that's not the sort of reasoning you're using here. It's also still unclear to me why you have them above me in your priority list.
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@Savant
In my experience, Earth tends to be more guarded as town and even catty at times (though probably in good fun). I looked at his old games to confirm this. Look at his first two posts as town in Call of Duty mafia here and here. Meanwhile as scum in Recycled Roles, he gave a compliment early on and was fairly polite.
Okay, that's actually a decent point. The other game I can think of where Earth was scum was Ace Attorney. I'll look back at DP1 of that one, but I actually already re-read it not that long ago, and that behavioral analysis does line up with what I remember of him in that game.
Casey_Risk
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Hmm, posts like this one, this one, and this one do feel a little bit 'catty' to me, so maybe that's not such a good towntell for Earth.
Savant
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@Casey_Risk
Hmm, posts like this onethis one, and this one do feel a little bit 'catty' to me, so maybe that's not such a good towntell for Earth.
Yeah, you got a point.
Mharman
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Will catch up later
whiteflame
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Alright, I'm behind. I'm going to catch up and sketch out some reads before I call it a night.
Earth
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I suppose I'll reread the past few pages and draft up some reads too I guess.
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Mharman 

He's largely engaged on the usual level, which is to introduce ideas and get feedback while sort of sitting back and soaking in the responses and behavior of other players. All that makes sense for him, though I'm hesitant to call it indicative of his alignment, especially since he seemed to be sussing Mikal a little bit, only to take a step back on that as well. No clear reads as of yet (not that I'm one to talk, at least before writing these) so it's hard to get a bead on him. Doesn't help that I've recently been fooled by him behaviorally. Null.

Mikal

Frustrating as the early interaction was, the more we got into it, the more it did come off as a reaction test. It's been a long time since I last played against a scum Mikal, so he might do this kind of thing as well, but I do think he'd be more likely to at least try to fish for information wherever he could get it, and it's not like he had absolutely no support in play for pushing for my claim (esp. given Savant's responses to my posts). For now, I've got a slight town lean on him, if only because I think he'd be more opportunistic than this as scum.

Austin and Moozer

No posts as of yet. Pure null.

Earth 

There's just not a lot to go on with these small posts. He mentioned posting a set of reads and I'll be interested to see those. The cheeky responses don't really do anything for me, either. I've played as scum with him a couple of times and he does tend to use these there, but they are common to his play in general. The thing that makes me want to townread him most is his statement about just outing his show, though absent any follow-up on that, I'm null on him.

Wylted

Nothing has really stood out as swinging either way from WyIted's posts so far. He's spent a good deal of time on theme analysis which may or may not be genuine (it would look pretty scattershot either way at this point), and putting pressure on various targets. Nothing wrong with any of that, even if it doesn't really do much to advance the DP, and nothing terribly inconsistent with his behavior. Null.

iLikePie5

Pretty much everything from him has been responses so far in an attempt to either clarify his views on certain reads and talk about how well certain tactics play in the game as a whole. I'd like to see a full set of reads from him at some point, but he's probably come up with his perspective on at least a majority of players in this game so far. I'm always hesitant to read Pie too early one way or the other, and that hasn't changed here since the lack of pushing on his part this game is a little off-putting, if not altogether improbable for him as town, especially given the amount of activity this game has been higher and he probably just hasn't felt the need to stimulate more. Null.

Banana

Not a whole lot to go off of for Banana. Pushing the softclaim thing early came off as townie. It's applying what we've done in a lot of previous games here, and though it's a little out of character for Banana to suggest it, the decision to just out her own softclaim first doesn't match what I'd expect if she was scum. Since then, it's mostly been defensiveness of that choice, but it's not the kind of frustration I've seen her display in the past. It's not a lot to go off of, but I'm still slightly townreading her.

Casey_Risk

The kind of candid responses I'm seeing to how several others have played the game so far come off as pretty straightforward for Casey in particular. The interrogation of reads, in particular, makes me want to townread Casey at this point, as does his insight into how players like Earth have played previous games. I wouldn't be surprised if Casey would do this as scum, but for now it's a slight townread.

Savant

He's putting a tremendous amount of effort into his reads and is considering a great deal of posts to do it. I certainly can't call anything he's doing cherry-picking, even if I disagree with some of his perspectives. Savant has clearly upped his read game substantially, and while he could plausibly do all this while being scum, my inclination is to put him in the slight town camp. Issues with his reads tend to crop up and get worse if he's scum, and I'm not seeing that trend.


So... yeah, I wouldn't say I'm clearly scumreading anyone right now. Most of my nullreads are for lower effort participants so far with the exception of Pie, who is null because I'm mainly mistrusting my gutread of his analysis so far. Really hoping Moozer and Austin chime in at some point, but both have been offline since yesterday and are essentially just black boxes.

Earth
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Alright. Hey Pie, I finally got some reads.

Savant and Casey are hard town for me. Banana is slightly less town for me, but still pretty town. For my null reads, its something like Pie > Mikal > Wylted = WF. I don't appreciate Mikal death tunneling me. I think its pretty stupid and his logic doesn't really pan out. But, granted, I am town so maybe I am biased. WF does similar things, even in games where I am town. Pie is playing as he usually does, but he is a touch inactive compared to his usual. WF hasn't done much yet and I almost forgot Wylted was playing. Austin and Moozer haven't posted yet, NAI for Moozer. I get Austin might be busy, but I definitely think we should get input from him. I'm obviously not going to suggest we lynch myself, so maybe if Austin will be the lynch if he continues as he is.
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@Earth
Savant and Casey are hard town for me.
Why am I hard town for you?
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Whiteflame's reads seem very... noncommittal? Lots of null players and no strong reads. I don't particularly like that.
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@whiteflame
Who is your strongest townread right now and why?
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@Casey_Risk
I was stream of consciousnessing that post.

Savant seems to be trying to solve the game in a way that I wouldn't expect him to as to as scum. My first thought was the probability shit is probably bullshit, but he's also posting with links to posts and is otherwise putting effort in. Maybe hes scum trying to get town cred but I don't so lol.

I can also see effort on your part. You don't use probability or statistics, but you are trying to read people and you had plenty of back and forths. I think I was iffy on you at first, but you come around.
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@Casey_Risk
I don't think WF having non commital reads is an issue. We are a day into DP1 and Moozer/Austin haven't posted yet. If WF continues nulling reading everyone tomorrow, then maybe we should be concerned. Otherwise its nothing.