Why violent protests can be effective at achieving political goals

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Some studies have found that nonviolent protests are more likely to extract government concessions than violent protests.

Critics will often suggest that to be effective, protests must at least have the threat of violence behind them. Presumably, if politicians are scared that you might riot, then they will do whatever you want. What's never explained is why any politician would care about violence that doesn't affect them. Why would a politician care if I burn down a random person's car? Usually politicians just care about votes, and violent protestors have worse optics.

However, three potential justifications for violent action instantly come to mind:
(a) Burning down cars makes other people agree with your political positions.
(b) Politicians are scared of random people's cars being burned down.
(c) The violent protestors are planning to do something that actually threatens politicians, like overthrowing the US government.

I don't see much historical support for (a) and (b). Specifically with (a), burning down cars might in some sense raise awareness, but if most people disapprove of the violence, it would be an overall political loss. In the United States, the odds of overthrowing the government seem rather slim and not even like the aim of the protests, so that justification doesn't make much sense either.

So, despite all this, why do I say violent protests can be effective? It seems rather obvious that everyone has been going about this the wrong way. Protestors would be effective if they violently protested for causes they disagree with. Perhaps some already are. Why shoot yourself in the foot when you could shoot your opponent in the foot?
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@Savant
Protestors would be effective if they violently protested for causes they disagree with.
Hitler's strategy, yes. He would make one of his groups do violence and then claim it was commited by other group, the enemy. Violence has overthrown governments before, as well.

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Domestic terrorism propaganda and Whiteflame, Barney and David will do what?
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@AdaptableRatman
Domestic terrorism propaganda
I didn't say "go be violent," I said violence can be effective in rare cases. Is that not true? Plus, the entire post is about how current violent protestors are so ineffective that they'd do better trying the exact opposite of what they're doing currently.
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@Savant
Problem isn't you is it?

If someone reads this and goes out and acts based on it, then what?

Should a site brainwash the vulnerable into dangerous ideas?
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Domestic terrorism propaganda and Whiteflame, Barney and David will do what?
Europe and USA sponsored similar violence all over the world...
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@AdaptableRatman
Problem isn't you is it?

If someone reads this and goes out and acts based on it, then what?

Should a site brainwash the vulnerable into dangerous ideas?
Any information can be dangerous if used by the wrong person. A computer manual can be used by a hacker, for instance. Most people on this site are opposed to domestic terrorism, so them having this information probably does more harm to the domestic terrorists than good by revealing certain tactics.
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@Savant
(d) Cause so much chaos that people can't take it anymore, zone out, do the #fatigue, and your side can fill the power vacuum and pretend like a compromise with the extremists is the fastest way to "calm things down" when the compromise is equal to or beyond what could possibly have been accepted by trying to convince people peacefully.

It's a small mirror of the dynamics of war.

In war every injury only strengthens the resolve of the injured up to the point when their morale or capability breaks.

Their morale breaks when they no longer believe they can win, after which every injury feels avoidable.


That is why it is entirely irrational to "attack a little bit". The only (informed) people who set out to "send a message" or make a "proportional response" are the ones who want the conflict to last longer and to make more enemies.

Nations, movements, and individuals should speak softly, carry a big stick, and be the type that never raises his voice so that when the rage comes it is feared.

Not because it is "cool" or "moral" but because it is the minimum of avoidable suffering. If it's a cause worth violence, you better be ready to kill everyone in your way if you can. If you can't do that, then don't start the fight.

The people burning down cars aren't thinking this through, they are just making enemies they aren't willing to kill. Hoping to break their morale through disruption was always a long shot. This country has gone to war with itself rather than back off perceived intimidation. Most people are like that.



Protestors would be effective if they violently protested for causes they disagree with. Perhaps some already are.
Yea some are.

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@ADreamOfLiberty
Cause so much chaos that people can't take it anymore, zone out, do the #fatigue, and your side can fill the power vacuum and pretend like a compromise with the extremists is the fastest way to "calm things down" 
i.e. overthrowing the government. I think we're on the same page with that not being a realistic goal (or a goal at all) of the protests.
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@Savant
I completely agree. 

Grocery businesses keep inflating their costs to ridiculously expensive prices. Perhaps people robbing and vandalising their stores might get them to drop their rates. 
Boycotting and leaving negative yelp reviews are clearly insufficient

/sarcasm

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 A computer manual can be used by a hacker, for instance
But computer manuals usually operate on the neutral side, always encouraging people to follow a code of ethics. 

Although I get you’re playing devil’s advocate. 
Encouraging violence through statistics attributes a degree of moral responsibility………
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@Savant
Cause so much chaos that people can't take it anymore, zone out, do the #fatigue, and your side can fill the power vacuum and pretend like a compromise with the extremists is the fastest way to "calm things down" 
i.e. overthrowing the government. I think we're on the same page with that not being a realistic goal (or a goal at all) of the protests.
Well not really. No more than every election is "overthrowing the government."

I'm saying in a democracy you don't need to convince people you're right or insert unelected leaders, you just have to confuse the pubic so much that they'll vote for whoever claims to "make it stop".

It requires a strong presence in media and a strong intellectual laziness in the public, because if they get a clear moral narrative they'll just go with that.

One could argue the abolitionists won this way. They made such a ruckus in every sphere that just about everybody was convinced they were behind everything that happened.

Lincoln didn't have to tell anybody he was going to free slaves before the election, the abolitionist being rabidly for him was enough to convince the entire south (and half the north) that emancipation was exactly what his goal was.

Given how it played out, the notion that Lincoln was conspiring with abolitionist is plausible and yet he presented himself as a unifier and a calmer of tensions.

Meanwhile John Brown is running around blowing people away and staging insurrections.

In the end, the south called the bluff; but if they didn't, I think it's obvious that what would have happened is a 'compromise' that the south would never have agreed to if there weren't so many people tired of the constant chaos... chaos caused by paramilitary abolitionists.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
compromise' that the south would never have agreed to if there weren't so many people tired of the constant chaos
This is always a strange take to me. People wanted to end slavery so abolitionists would stop rioting? The reasons for wanting to end slavery were partly economic and partly moral, but I'm not sure any pro-slavery people were flipped to the other side because of riots. Like, everyone expects other people to respond this way to their riots, but is there any policy you thought should be passed to appease rioters? Most people understand that appeasing terrorists invites more terrorism, so if it was a policy I was on the fence about, I'd be inclined not to appease the rioters.
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@Savant
compromise' that the south would never have agreed to if there weren't so many people tired of the constant chaos
This is always a strange take to me. People wanted to end slavery so abolitionists would stop rioting?
No!

People wanted to appease the abolitionist by throwing them a bone.

It would have taken another generation to abolish slavery without violence.


but I'm not sure any pro-slavery people were flipped to the other side because of riots
I don't know what's hard to understand about this.

If rioting flipped people it would be case (a), I said (d) because there is a case you didn't describe.

It doesn't convince anyone of anything except that they want normalcy back and that pressure alters the political landscape allowing politicians to offer previously radical appeasement as compromise.


but is there any policy you thought should be passed to appease rioters?
I am not a normie.

Normies watch 5 minutes of TV or listen to 5 minutes of radio and they think they know what's going on. Those are the people who can be shifted out of apathy by riots. In 1860s they read a newspaper once a week.

It's not convincing them of any particular policy, it's just making them react. The copperheads and Constitutional Union Party were a party characterized by the attitude "can you all please sit down so I can go back to making money".


Most people understand that appeasing terrorists invites more terrorism
Looks pointedly at all the pro Hamas demonstrations.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
People wanted to appease the abolitionist by throwing them a bone.
By trying to secede from the union?

Normies watch 5 minutes of TV or listen to 5 minutes of radio and they think they know what's going on. Those are the people who can be shifted out of apathy by riots. In 1860s they read a newspaper once a week.
You think normies see a riot and say "we should compromise with domestic terrorists"? That's certainly not how they reacted after the BLM riots, or after January 6th. The longer the violence went on, the less support that faction got.

Looks pointedly at all the pro Hamas demonstrations.
Do you think pro-Hamas violence is what made people want to compromise with Palestinians? Like, Israel invading Gaza after October 7th was Israel's way of throwing Hamas a bone? People being pro Hamas causes pro-Hamas violence, not the other way around.

When Palestinians want people to throw them a bone, do they focus on Israeli violence or Palestinian violence?
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@Sir.Lancelot
Grocery businesses keep inflating their costs to ridiculously expensive prices. Perhaps people robbing and vandalising their stores might get them to drop their rates.
If you want to cause them bad press, you would have to dress up as a grocery store owner before you riot.
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@Savant
People wanted to appease the abolitionist by throwing them a bone.
By trying to secede from the union?
No, by electing Abraham Lincoln who positioned himself as someone who would appease the abolitionists while keeping the union together.


The longer the violence went on, the less support that faction got.
Because the riots did not break the morale of the people, but in theory it is possible and it has happened before and elsewhere.


Do you think pro-Hamas violence is what made people want to compromise with Palestinians?
Indirectly I think Hamas violence is what makes people want to compromise yes. They keep turning Gaza and the west bank into war torn wastelands and people are willing to give anything to make that stop happening.

I think they don't care about labels like "terrorist" when they're in this mode of thinking.


People being pro Hamas causes pro-Hamas violence, not the other way around.
Again you mischaracterize. I did not say violence makes people pro-violence, I said it can make the agenda of the violent more likely to suceed by virtue of the widespread impression that it is a problem that needs to be solved.

When you create the 'problem' with violence and thereby push something into political relevancy you've gained political advantage through violence.

Another example is the Stonewall riots.


When Palestinians want people to throw them a bone, do they focus on Israeli violence or Palestinian violence?
Of course they focus on their own losses and enemy attack in propaganda. That's a simple principle of propaganda and has nothing to do with the dynamic.

People who aren't engaged will decide there is a problem if there is violence even if they can't be bothered to figure out who started what or why.

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@ADreamOfLiberty
by electing Abraham Lincoln who positioned himself as someone who would appease the abolitionists while keeping the union together
Keeping the union together was about appeasing politicians and state militias, not disorganized rioters. If some group actually has a chance of overthrowing the government, that's a different situation.

Because the riots did not break the morale of the people, but in theory it is possible and it has happened before and elsewhere.
If you can overpower the government, sure. But that requires a competing state or de-facto state.

push something into political relevancy you've gained political advantage through violence
Relevancy is not an advantage if it mostly encourages people to oppose you.

Stonewall riots
Refusing to cooperate with the police and trying to rescue detainees galvanized the cause, sure. Plus the fact that the building they destroyed was owned by the Mafia, who aren't really innocent victims. But I'm not convinced that burning taxis and going after people who aren't attacking you has the same effect.

Of course they focus on their own losses and enemy attack in propaganda. That's a simple principle of propaganda and has nothing to do with the dynamic.
Propaganda is the dynamic. We're talking about how normies move to one side or the other when they see violence. If something is mainly effective propaganda for the other side, it doesn't help your cause.
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@Savant
Because the riots did not break the morale of the people, but in theory it is possible and it has happened before and elsewhere.
If you can overpower the government, sure.
No, the people.


Because the riots did not break the morale of the people, but in theory it is possible and it has happened before and elsewhere.
If you can overpower the government, sure.
When you have no attention, any attention is good attention. It's a risk that can pay off and has in the past.


Stonewall riots
Refusing to cooperate with the police and trying to rescue detainees galvanized the cause, sure. Plus the fact that the building they destroyed was owned by the mafia, who aren't really innocent victims.
None of those details mattered. All that mattered was that it made a lot of noise and when people started paying attention that was their hook in the platform of a political party.

Snow rolling downhill.

Of course the objective merits of the agenda matter, but this is a phenomenon that can happen and therefore it is not absolutely correct that political violence far short of overthrowing the government is counterproductive.
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@Savant
The people.

Who exactly are the people in question?

A. Are we talking decent, reasonable law abiding citizens.

B. Or wannabee anarchists with chips on their shoulders and their underachieving foot soldiers.

So B. fuelled by hormones and whatever else, take to the streets and burn cars.

And A, stop at home and watch TV.
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Who exactly are the people in question?
The body politic.
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@Savant
Politicians are scared of open violence because their perceived legitimacy rests in large part on the state's promise to offer security against violence. In dictatorships, failure in this area can mean a coup. In liberal democracies, it can mean that incumbents lose the next election. This is why certain strains of anarchism (the political philosophy) view terrorism, criminality, and blatant antisocial behavior as morally good things.
If the voting public consists of affluent people known to adopt luxury beliefs about crime, said fact can act as a buffer against this outcome but only to an extent. There is some hypothetical point beyond which basic self-preservation will kick in even for these people, as California's Proposition 36 all but proved.


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@ADreamOfLiberty
The body politic.

Please expand.

"The body politic" is a generalisation.

The US. body politic for example is roughly a 50-50 split of two bodies politic.

And further to that, said bodies will continue to sub-divide.

So in relation to the question, who specifically are "the body of people" that you refer to.
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@Swagnarok
Politicians are scared of open violence because their perceived legitimacy rests in large part on the state's promise to offer security against violence
As long as they oppose the violence sufficiently, they're fine. FDR got reelected three times, and he had to deal with WW2. Violence can cause people to rally around the flag.
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@zedvictor4
The body politic.
Please expand.
All eligible voters.
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@Savant
At least whacko violent protestors have the good sense to set themselves on fire... Too bad more of them are not around.