Is Trump a strong candidate?

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#1
thett3
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Seeing what people think because this is something I go back and forth on. 

The argument for Trump being a weak candidate politically is obvious. He’s obnoxious, has always had low favorables, is constantly getting into immature and bizarre fights with people, constantly takes obvious bait etc. 

On the other hand…the presidency is the most coveted prize in all of politics. Most politicians don’t have the guts to even try and for those who do it usually ends in frankly pretty humiliating defeat, either not even making it to the voting stage or having to drop out after getting 1% after spending months pandering to people in Iowa. If you’re lucky enough to make it to the nomination you have a 50/50 chance of losing to someone who went through the same grueling process on the other side. 

Trump’s primary record is 3-0 and his general election record is 2-1 for the highest prize of all. Thats objectively an extremely strong record.  Would a different Republican nominee have done better? It seems obvious that they would…but one could also say his electoral record speaks for itself. I honestly don’t know 
#2
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@thett3
It is not the smart ones which get liked, but the entertaining ones.
#3
AdaptableRatman
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@thett3
He is a sexual degenerate serial cheat that coaxed his most vulnerable followers mentally to commit domestic terrorism and didnt even back them up saying he supported it but chickened out entirely.

Great friends with Epstein, at least 2 documented visits to his 'parties'.

His racism somehow is a lesser issue.

3rd marriage, narcissistic, whatever

I guess he represents conservatives well... In America.
🤦‍♂️
#4
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@thett3
I think the fact that he’s not a traditional politician made him win. Middle America has perished due to the career politicians. Trump was smart enough to channel that energy and a great people person. People love an underdog story.
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@thett3
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by 2.2% and 4.5% in 2020, but won it by 1.5% in 2024. It was in PA MI and WI where he won by 0.72%, 0.23% and 0.23%, respectively, that gave him the electoral votes to win in 2016.
#6
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@thett3
Trump’s primary record is 3-0
Well in 2020 he was the president, so I'd give him a 2-0 record here. He deserves some credit for that but that's kind of it, I think anyone would have close to 50% odds of winning the presidency once they win a primary. Nothing convinces me he did better than a generic Republican would in a general election.

one could also say his electoral record speaks for itself
He could never get more than 50% of the vote. His record is hardly unprecedented. Are we just pretending that presidents like Bush, Obama, and Reagan never existed? Trump is a rich TV personality who invested his name branding in winning a Republican primary in a crowded field after Democrats had the White House for 10 years and made voters tired of them. Then a bunch of inflation happened under Biden. It's not much beyond that.
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@Savant
Well in 2020 he was the president, so I'd give him a 2-0 record here. He deserves some credit for that but that's kind of it, I think anyone would have close to 50% odds of winning the presidency once they win a primary. Nothing convinces me he did better than a generic Republican would in a general election.
This is true, one of those was a freebie. 2024 was…weird. On the one hand as an ex POTUS you’d think he should win in a walk away but he also had denied the results of the last election, was facing four different criminal issues three of which were serious but then easily wins in a landslide. I always think it’s weird to remember that the GOP had a primary costing tens of millions with debates etc and the guy who didn’t bother with any of it won easily 

He could never get more than 50% of the vote. His record is hardly unprecedented. Are we just pretending that presidents like Bush, Obama, and Reagan never existed? Trump is a rich TV personality who invested his name branding in winning a Republican primary in a crowded field after Democrats had the White House for 10 years and made voters tired of them. Then a bunch of inflation happened under Biden. It's not much beyond that.
This is true, but the popular vote isn’t relevant, 270 is. We don’t know what campaigns/politics would look like if it was decided by the popular vote…but I’m definitely not saying he’s an electoral juggernaut by any means. I’m just curious how badly he’s hurt the Republican Party electorally or if he was actually a positive. We can’t know but it’s interesting to think about

It’s just extremely unusual for someone to skip politics entirely and then run and win the presidency 
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@ILikePie5
I think the fact that he’s not a traditional politician made him win. Middle America has perished due to the career politicians. Trump was smart enough to channel that energy and a great people person. People love an underdog story.
I think this was true in 2016 for sure, especially at that time people were sick to death of the establishment types that don’t really exist anymore 

and yeah I’ve seen hardcore liberals admit that (unfortunately) he’s one of the most personable people ever with average folks, has perfect comedic timing, etc 
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@AdaptableRatman
lol I don’t mean a good person just a good candidate. Like I said it’s weird bc he self sabotages a lot but 2-1 for the presidency of the United States is not nothing 
#10
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@Savant
Well in 2020 he was the president, so I'd give him a 2-0 record here. 
Lol being president isn't a primary autowin. See Biden 2024.

Also Teddy Roose, Peirce, and Filmore.
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lol I don’t mean a good person just a good candidate. Like I said it’s weird bc he self sabotages a lot but 2-1 for the presidency of the United States is not nothing 
In the land of the blind, the one eye man is king supreme.
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@thett3
On the one hand as an ex POTUS you’d think he should win in a walk away but he also had denied the results of the last election, was facing four different criminal issues three of which were serious but then easily wins in a landslide. I always think it’s weird to remember that the GOP had a primary costing tens of millions with debates etc and the guy who didn’t bother with any of it won easily 
I think the criminal issues helped him among his base, and the name recognition boosted him a lot. Plus the criminal issues didn't really change his public perception from how he was seen in 2016. Being a TV personality did help, which makes him a decent candidate all things considered, but a lot of it is because Trump's strategy is just focusing on winning the primary. I think luck always plays a big role. I mean look how far Elon got just being rich, if he'd been born in the US he'd have a shot at the presidency too in this environment.

the popular vote isn’t relevant, 270 is
Sure, but you can get to 270 without appealing to most people. Electoral advantage is mostly luck, which is different from being a strong candidate. Also winning 51% of a state gets you the whole state, so it makes very close races look a lot less close.

Lol being president isn't a primary autowin. See Biden 2024
Okay but Biden was a very low bar and still almost got the nomination until that disastrous debate performance. Really Biden is proof that you can still almost get the nomination even if you can't form a complete sentence.

In the land of the blind, the one eye man is king supreme.
That's fair for the most part. But I don't think it's the land of the blind so much as plenty of decent two-eyed candidates get filtered out through bad luck (not being rich, not having relatives in politics, etc.)

It’s just extremely unusual for someone to skip politics entirely and then run and win the presidency
In the GOP primaries I think being an outsider was always seen as fine. Then in the general election he had a massive political party behind him, which was enough for a decent shot. I do think all Hillary had to do for a runaway victory was not be corrupt, but she had her share of scandals too and that put Trump on a roughly level playing field.
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Remember that if you were the dumbest student a professor ever had but your father gives you $400 million you too can be President of the USA!
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@FLRW
Remember that if you were the dumbest student a professor ever had but your father gives you $400 million you too can be President of the USA!
Americans had only two choices in 2024:

1. Black woman
Or
2. Rapist, corrupt billionaire, liar, convicted felon, abuser, bully, failed as president in 2020...ect.

For Americans, clearly anything, anything is better than a black woman as president.
#15
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   Tru-dat!
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Orange is the new black.


Sorry, it's just better.
#17
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Orange is the new black.
(Well, in Iran it might be)
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lol I don’t mean a good person just a good candidate. Like I said it’s weird bc he self sabotages a lot but 2-1 for the presidency of the United States is not nothing 
Indeed, the majority Conservatives of US could not care less about character of tjeir leader and face of their cause it would seem.
#19
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I think Trump's a strong candidate when he isn't an incumbent.

One thing I heard back around 2016 was that, somewhat counterintuitively from our point of view, the Trump team did a lot of research on identifying the winning issues before he threw his hat in the ring. He is democracy in action: rather than embodying an agenda for which getting elected is merely a means to carrying it out, the Trumpian agenda conforms to the goal of getting elected. The man can and will waffle on anything.

The word pandering gets thrown around a lot, but I'd like to define what it is: the mismatch between how strongly a target audience supports X and how strongly the average person outside of said target audience opposes X, which amounts to a net electoral gain. Trump welcomed the most disreputable factions of the old left into the new GOP and built a coalition where hippie moms, disgruntled rust belters, and what's left of the conservative Christians shared a partisan tent.

The problem is, if you want to get reelected then you are expected to keep the promises you made to those whose votes got you there the first time. And when that means handing the keys of the HHS to RFK Jr., or jacking the price of everything to protect the jobs of a minority of constituents located in this or that factory town, ordinary people do start to care a lot more. Conversely, if you give those people the middle finger, but your name is Donald Trump, then the mainstream will continue to hate you regardless and that's how you get 2020.

The GOP is probably in for a rude awakening come the next midterms at least, if not in 2028 too.
#20
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Idk what the point of it is anyway. His electability is moot now. He cant run for a third term and even if he could hes liable to lose his marbles or drop dead before that would happen because hes so old now.
#21
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No use crying over spilled OJ
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Remember that Trump will be bankrupting SS and Medicare by giving tax breaks to the rich.
Shouldn't the top tax rate be 90 percent like Eisenhower had to pay of the same percentage National Debt that we have now ?
#23
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Remember Minkin called you a moron for saying something nice about Jesus.