Sorry for being inactive, been busy today. Give me a moment to catch up
Terraria Mafia #1 - DP2
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@ILikePie5
I think we leave Ceru alive for now. Tomorrow if there’s not a message then it’s even more suspicious.
I don't really see the benefit here. Like I said, assuming Ceru is town, it's highly unlikely that the scum team poisons somebody tonight. Otherwise, Cerulean could easily confirm his role, which just hurts the scum team even worse. Only way someone gets poisoned tonight is if Ceru himself is the NK. Letting Ceru live isn't informative here like it would be for a claimed DP3 Innocent Child, for instance.
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@Lunatic
What if he had hammered you, you flip town, and it was later revealed that vader was scum anyway?Then how bad does he look? Voting Vader here was his once chance to earn town cred, but he still did it after showing no progression of how he came to that conclusion after hard defending supa blatantly 5 times in a row.
I don't think it would have looked that terrible for him, especially given that I was basically the default pick for a number of other people at the time. I won't argue that his behavior before that point was looking a bit off, and I see your post detailing the reasons why, but the decision to hammer meant missing out on a pretty easy mislynch target and losing out on at least one NP with Vader in play. Maybe he saw it as worth gaining a little bit of towncred for the loss, I'm not dismissing that, but it's a lot to give up with little risk.
Going to need it clarified what happened before I start sussing this. I’m unclear what Ultra meant by this and even less clear what that would mean for Luna in terms of what he should know about said visit.
There's a few different roles that Ultra could be hinting at here. I think I know roughly what kind of role he is. I will say that it is possible that he is being guided in what to say by his partner. It's a little tough to read him based on how little he's been posting, but what little is there does give me towny vibes, and it would still be a risk to claim something confirmable like that.
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@Mharman
I am willing to sheep lunatic for a while. It went well last dp
unvote vtl ref
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@Casey_Risk
There's a few different roles that Ultra could be hinting at here. I think I know roughly what kind of role he is. I will say that it is possible that he is being guided in what to say by his partner. It's a little tough to read him based on how little he's been posting, but what little is there does give me towny vibes, and it would still be a risk to claim something confirmable like that.
I agree that there's a risk involved, but especially if scum have some insight into other player roles (like a Role Cop or a Stalker for example), they could mitigate the risk of claims like this. Not saying that's the most likely instance here, but I can't really determine the degree of risk he's taking with what he's softed so far.
I feel like ultra is claiming messenger or friendly neighbor. But if that’s the case why is no one saying they can confirm his action? Even if mafia Poe targeted him would they redirect or move his action to themselves. It doesn’t make sense.
I wana know Lunas full role as it will tell us what happened with that because it’s odd. I think it’s likely not a buss but we can’t rule it out either.
I still order ceru
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@Mikal
But more than that, ima just say it because it’s not outing anything that scum don’t know at this point. Ana basically hard claimed doctor or bp and it’s because she doesn’t game, that she would not see how her character ties to that.I think Anna is town so the next question is do we need a doctor and a healer? That means mafia would have 2 nks. You would not put a healer to counter balance 1nk that positions. That doesn’t make sense. It would have to be consistent or a few x poisons and I don’t think that role would exist to counter just tv.
This is a really interesting point. I actually think that balance analysis is one of the strongest tools the town has in closed setup games. Having both a Healer and what Banana likely is doesn't make much sense to me unless the Mafia can poison and NK during the same night. Given that this obviously didn't happen and no one can explain why, (I thought my role would explain it but it doesn't,) it doesn't look good for Ceru.
Are we still on Lunatic from the last dp?
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@Mikal
I feel like ultra is claiming messenger or friendly neighbor. But if that’s the case why is no one saying they can confirm his action? Even if mafia Poe targeted him would they redirect or move his action to themselves. It doesn’t make sense.
Yeah, it's very weird and I don't know what to make of it. But I also don't think that Luna would likely lie about not receiving whatever it was that he was supposed to receive as scum. What's the upside for him?
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@Casey_Risk
If you want me to vote ceru than explain why . Explain to me like I am both an idiot and a person who can not quite keep up with the game and who is completely lost and unsure of what is happening
Gonna be honest, I don't buy the Luna bus theory right now. DP1 busses are rare, and I don't think Luna would have tried to deflect the early wagon that was forming around him onto his partner.
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@whiteflame
I don't think it would have looked that terrible for him, especially given that I was basically the default pick for a number of other people at the time. I won't argue that his behavior before that point was looking a bit off, and I see your post detailing the reasons why, but the decision to hammer meant missing out on a pretty easy mislynch target and losing out on at least one NP with Vader in play. Maybe he saw it as worth gaining a little bit of towncred for the loss, I'm not dismissing that, but it's a lot to give up with little risk.
If you were scum in this scenario, knowing you were town, and that you could vote whiteflame who was still 4 votes away from being lynched (theres a chance this lynch doesn't even happen with how little time was left) or do you hammer before someone else can? Because at this point anyone could have hammered vader. If you were scum would you take the chance and pray you get another 4 votes for a mislynch, or do you count it as a loss and take any town cred you can get at this point? I think a lot of people would choose the latter, but maybe you wouldn't. Just curious.
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@WyIted
If you want me to vote ceru than explain why . Explain to me like I am both an idiot and a person who can not quite keep up with the game and who is completely lost and unsure of what is happening
He's claimed Poison Healer, but no one was poisoned and no one can explain why a scum Poisoner would have failed. Banana would seem to be some form of a protective role, possibly a doctor based on her claim (yes, openly speculating is anti-town but it's pretty obvious and I'm not the first one to say it anyway), which is an odd way to balance this game if scum can't NK and poison on the same night. It's a lot of town protective power compared to scum killing power. I don't see scum skipping out on poisoning someone last night if they had the option. Behaviorally, there's also the fact that he's mostly been playing in the background, weighed in very little on the Vader lynch except to defend him (I don't remember whether he was on the wagon or not, I'll have to check), and just hasn't been doing much to move this game forward imo.
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@Lunatic
If you were scum in this scenario, knowing you were town, and that you could vote whiteflame who was still 4 votes away from being lynched (theres a chance this lynch doesn't even happen with how little time was left) or do you hammer before someone else can? Because at this point anyone could have hammered vader. If you were scum would you take the chance and pray you get another 4 votes for a mislynch, or do you count it as a loss and take any town cred you can get at this point? I think a lot of people would choose the latter, but maybe you wouldn't. Just curious.
That's a fair question. I've been in similar situations before and I think I've made both calls to varying degrees of success. Knowing that my partner would be lynched either this DP or next would influence that decision, and I think Vader was basically guaranteed to be lynched either DP1 or 2, depending upon whether I was lynched in the first. If I was anticipating literally anyone else logging on, I'd probably VTL Vader too or simply hang out offline and wait for someone else to do it, so I get your point. I'll give it some thought.
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@Mikal
I wana know Lunas full role as it will tell us what happened with that because it’s odd. I think it’s likely not a buss but we can’t rule it out either.
Since you are still on this, I'll just say it. I am a vanilla. The loom mostly crafts things using mostly silk and the items are usually vanity based, thus I am vanilla. It's a huge part of the reason I wanted to lynch supa day phase one after savant CC'ed him. I still buy savant is a vanilla, but three vanillas was kind of a lot to buy. I also thought I could bait a night kill with strengthener without much risk of CC'ing town with another role. I am probably going to regret saying this because now Pie and Ref are going to use this argument against me to say I am scum and I really didn't want to go down this rabbit hole. If your gonna lie as town, I feel like you gotta roll with it, fake it til you make it. But with Ultra saying he visited me I honestly have no clue unless I was blocked or something, because I don't have an active role.
what does poison healer do
I just thought of an interesting question. Who here would be bold enough to try and NK Toaster after his claim?
So, the reason I asked this question earlier is because I was suddenly reminded of ERB Mafia, a game which I modded. Pie was the Even-Night PGO, but claimed to be an unflavored PGO. However, the scum team killed him anyway. I remember Pie being absolutely shocked that the scum team would be so bold as to attempt to claim the claimed PGO, and he immediately deduced that Luna had to be scum, as Pie thought he would be the only one who would actually be willing to take such a risk. In fact, it was actually Whiteflame who came up with the idea (he thought Pie was lying about his role), but Luna was his partner and agreed with the plan.
I thought that that sort of analysis might be useful here as well, but on second thought, I'm a little less sure. For one thing, losing a teammate DP1 is usually devastating. You typically have to be willing to make risky plays if you still want to win in such a gamestate. For another, as WF brought out (and I think it's a good point), killing Toaster would have been a big risk, but so would leaving the Cop alive. I think having lost a partner so soon probably would have increased the risk tolerance of any conservative players on the scum team, and maybe trying to NK Toaster wouldn't have seemed like such a bad strategy.
Also, it's important to keep in mind that Vader is still on the team. I mean he's dead now, but presumably can still communicate in the Discord. I think a long-time player like him would have been likely to figure out what sort of gambit Toaster was playing. If so, that doesn't really tell us anything
Luna claiming Vanilla is a bit sus. His stated motivations do make sense to me however
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@whiteflame
And even that is unclear since we don't know the order of operations. It's possible that a town Poisoner's role doesn't take effect because the NK happens first, which means it wouldn't necessarily be an action they could blame Irontoaster
I asked Mharman and he told me both actions would be executed simultaneously, so that's not the issue here. Curious why you didn't ask him yourself.
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@JoeBob
what does poison healer do
Going out on a limb, I'd say they heal a participant who's been poisoned. Guess you blindly target someone during NP to heal and hope they happened to be poisoned? Shot in the dark.
The catch up in this game is hell.
Came into DP2 with Casey high on the suspect list for consistent defense of Vader last phase. Can't say the Spear + Immunity combo seems very natural to me. "Asceticizer," what kind of name is that for a knockback-based immune effect.
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@Casey_Risk
What’s the downside of it for him?
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@Cerulean
Also, I have a reason to believe that an evil player was roleblocked last Night. If someone wants to claim that, they're free to do so and I can elaborate. Not 100% necessary, we're not in a bad position right now, but I just want to put that on the table.
Never saw you elaborate on this.
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@Mikal
What’s the downside of it for him?
It only makes him look suspicious here. Even if he can successfully deflect that suspicion onto Ultra instead, it only makes him look worse on the following DP, unless this is a bus. I don't think it is, though. Ultra's behavior feels genuine to me, especially the way he voted for Luna, then suddenly unvoted him.
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@ILikePie5
The Even Night Strengthener doesn’t make sense to me at all. First, it’s super convenient cause he should’ve 100% used it on Mikal.Second, Ultra says that he visited Luna and Luna should know that. Ultra doesn’t have a reason to say that as scum, so that means either Luna is lying or there is some sort of Redirecter/Bus Driver/Deflector, etc in play. That plus an every night Ascetizer, why would Mharman make the Strengthener even night only?
It's unfalsifiable because no one knows if there's a role that redirects actions. So even if Luna denies it, it could be true, and Ultra comes off sounding quasi-townie. Isn't that a good enough reason to say it as scum.
About to shut off my internet access for 24 hours because I have to cram for something. This is like 2 hours away will check in then somebody make your case.
Heading to a concert will be posting lightly from mobile but not a ton if I can help it
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@Casey_Risk
I still have not got to iso this but the things sticking out to me the most atm is the Anna Ceru, doctor vs healer split. Doesn’t make sense unless mafia can kill twice. One with a nk and one with a poison. After this dp we will see if someone dies of poison but even if they did it could be tv. Don’t buy the campfire claim and it bothers the fuck out of me.
I also just checked in depth and a campfire does not heal a poison effect in the game. It gives health regent. It doesn’t remove it. Which makes me way
more sus now having read through it mechanically.
Luna fake claiming enabler. In a 14 person game this still could get cced and he would risk outing it and it was early. Vanilla doing this strikes me as an odd choice but if he is telling the truth I understand the logic. But Luna is also the person who says a hard bus usually is a free win so it is very hard to dismiss this
I’m low-key kinda buying the underground vs not split. Ima lol so hard if it’s Luna cer super.
But atm lynch order is still ceru first.