Suppose there are 600 people with fatal disease A. You have to choose between

treatment 1 - 200 people will be saved

treatment 2 - there is a 1/3 chance everyone is saved, a 2/3 chance everyone dies

Now suppose there are 600 people with fatal disease B. You have to choose between

treatment 3 - 400 people will certainly die

treatment 4 - there is a 1/3 chance everyone is saved, a 2/3 chance everyone dies.

What choices do you make?