Jim Swalwell dropped out of the race on July 8th, and Tim Ryan recently suspended his campaign following the Dayton mass shooting in his home state (He says its temporary, but I have my doubts https://www.tribtoday.com/news/local-news/2019/08/ryan-suspends-his-campaign/). Last year in 2016, Rick Perry was the first person to drop out of the GOP primary race (September 10), so we may now be entering the period of time where the lesser known candidates in the primary start dropping off.
Based on your own gut feelings and current poll numbers, who do you think will be the next candidate to drop out, and if you had to guess, who will follow after them? With 12 different candidates polling at 1%, its a pretty big crapshoot to really narrow own who will drop out when, but maybe someone will nail it and then get bragging rights for the next four years.
(RCP polling for reference: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html)
So, in what order do you think the Dem candidates will drop out? Here's my guess:
21 - Ryan (Recently suspended campaign)
20 - Steve Bullock (Genuinely forgot he was even running in the first place)
19 - Hickenlooper
18 - Bennet
17 - De Blasio
16 - Williamson (Author, she'll drop out whenever she feels like it)
14 - Gillibrand
13 - Delaney
12 - Steyer (Billionaire who recently entered the race, he'll stick around for a bit)
11 - Klobuchar
10 - Castro
9 - Gabbard
8 - Yang
7 - Beto
6 - Booker
5 - Buttigieg
4 - Warren
3 - Harris
2 - Sanders
1 - Biden becomes the nominee
If you look at results showing who Dem voter's second picks would be after the main candidate they support drops out, there is a candidate who benefits the most: Biden.
Of the voter bases that support Sanders, Warren, Harris, Beto, Booker, and Klobuchar, only Warren's voter base's second choice is someone other than Biden (They would prefer Sanders more, to no one's surprise).
The fact that Biden already has a massive polling lead among more centrist-leaning Dems, combined with polls showing Biden is close to everyone's second favorite pick after the person they currently support, suggests that once candidates start dropping out, Biden will be the one who benefits the most from it...... With Sanders and Warren splitting the more left-leaning base deep into the primaries as well, and Harris kind of between the left wing faction and the more centrist faction, I don't see anyone putting together a base that can rival Biden's in time for the end of the primaries.
So what do you think will be the dropout order if you had to put together a list?