Now I normally dont get into UK politics due to how differently things are done there and how arbitrary it can appear to be. (Case in point, elections can be ordered at almost any time requested by the prime minister, whereas US elections for legislative bodies of Congress take place every 2 years regularly), but some crazy shit has gone down over there that I feel should be discussed.
Recently: A bill was passed by both houses of Parliament (House of Commons and the House of Lords) that would bar the UK from exiting the EU without a deal in place for the country to exit the EU should they go through with it. Previously, that outcome was a possibility since the EU's terms to the UK should they leave were not accepted by the UK government, meaning that they would have to either stay in the EU or exit with no trade deal to fall back on and effectively be on their own.
Now though, the UK is in a position where they can only exit the EU if other terms are agreed upon, or they cannot exit at all.
Thats normally where this story would end, but it gets crazier:
1 - That whole law passed requiring an exit agreement to be in place in order to formally leave the EU, that was passed with members of the party that holds control of the government: The Tory Party (UK Republican Party).... The Tories were pretty hellbent on exiting the EU regardless of whether or not a plan was in place at the time of withdrawal, while every other opposition party that has any power is not.... Those opposition parties combined power with 21 Tory legislators to pass a bill making it illegal for the UK to undertake Brexit without a deal being in place upon exiting.
2 - Because 21 Tory party members went against their own party to require there being some deal in place should the UK go through with exiting the EU, Boris Johnson (PM + Tory Party leader) kicked them out of the Tory party, essentially for defecting to the other side even though some of them may indeed support exiting the EU as long as a deal is in place should they exit.
3 - As a result of ousting 21 members of his own party, Boris Johnson now does not have a majority in Parliament to do his bidding. He can no longer call for new elections because the majority that is now the opposition will reject such a measure, he cannot undo the law forbidding Brexit without a deal being in place to transition into since legislators just voted to create that law, and he likely will be unable to ask the EU for more time or to renegotiate conditions since theyve already made their terms clear and are in a position of power in regards to the UK.
As a result of those 3 developments, Boris Johnson and the tory party have basically painted themselves into a corner with only two options:
- 1 - They can abandon their drive to carry out Brexit, which would be borderline suicidal since they are the party that currently represents the portion of the population that wanted Brexit to happen
- 2 - Boris Johnson can resign, which will force power to be handed over to a coalition of opposition parties who would select an interim Prime Minister from their own ranks, and then the next time elections are held try to make a comeback and get the numbers to make a new push for Brexit in the future.
And thats it. Those are the two options that the ruling Tory Party in the UK is currently facing. Give up on the top issue facing the UK where they represent the entire side in favor of leaving the EU, or they can stand down from power in the hopes that they will play their cards right better than the opposition and in the next round of elections increase their numbers in Parliament to take up the issue again.
Either way though puts them on the track towards staying in the EU, since option 1 basically gives up on pursuing Brexit, while option 2 temporarily puts power into the hands of opposition parties that are heavily against exiting the EU. This dramatic shift in the future of the UK regarding Brexit was all caused by a recent vote where a number of Tory defectors sided with opposition parties to require there be a deal in place for Brexit to occur. Beacause of that, The Pro-Brexit ruling Tory party now lacks the ability to go through a no-deal exit from the EU, lacks the numbers to call for new elections to maybe get more numbers on their side in Parliament to pursue Brexit further, lacks the ability to convince the EU to allow for more time or renegotiate terms of a Brexit, and basically lacks the ability to pull out of the EU since previous terms offered by the EU were soundly rejected by Parliament back when Theresa May was the prime minister.
So, barring any crazy development where a number of legislators suddenly deflect back to the Tory Party and to support a no-deal Brexit policy, the UK appears to be heading towards remaining in the EU, and Boris Johnson could be effectively forced to resign and hand power over to the opposition