Technological Singularity is Not Inevitable

Author: Discipulus_Didicit ,

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  • Discipulus_Didicit
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    Discipulus_Didicit
    Also not necessarily a bad thing.

    But most importantly, not inevitable.


    For those with interest in the topic but not enough to watch a video over half an hour long, basically the idea that a technological singularity is inevitable is broken down into several sections which are discussed in-depth and a conclusion reached in each case:

    Part one: Computers are getting faster
    Conclusion: True. This cannot continue forever because physics, but will continue into the foreseeable future.

    Part two: The rate of improvement is accelerating (Moores Law holds now and will continue to hold)
    Conclusion: Outright false.

    Part three: Superhuman AI is possible
    Conclusion: We can't be sure but most likely true.

    Part four: Superhuman AI is capable of creating a superior version of itself.
    Conclusion: Possibly true but far from guaranteed for a number of reasons.

    Part five: The design of the second superhuman AI by the first will be faster than the design of the first by us.
    Conclusion: Most likely false

    Part six: The cycle continues to accelerate. The second AI designs the third faster than it was designed, the design of the fourth even faster still... etc.
    Conclusion: Almost certainly false.

    The video is not an attempt to prove that a technological singularity is impossible - in fact it most certainly is not impossible - but rather to shatter the common misconception that it is inevitable once a superhuman AI is made and to question the idea that it is necessarily a bad thing. Some interesting philosophical points are brought up in this regard, such as questioning whether a superhuman AI that is secretly malevolent would actually be hostile. There are a number of logical reasons that they might not attempt to harm humanity even if they wished to and were capable of doing so.
  • zedvictor4
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    --> @Discipulus_Didicit
    1) Chance or purpose? 

    2) Therefore, is material evolution pre-ordained or not?

    3) Therefore, do we actually have a say in the matter?

    If one chooses purpose then one would be inclined to answer Yes and No to questions 2 and 3. So under these circumstances, technological singularity would seem to be inevitable. 

  • Discipulus_Didicit
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    --> @zedvictor4
    Chance or purpose?

    It is not clear what you are asking here.

    If one chooses purpose then one would be inclined to answer Yes and No to questions 2 and 3. So under these circumstances, technological singularity would seem to be inevitable.

    Again unclear as to what you mean by 'questions 2 and 3'. Are you referring to something from the video or the premises in the OP? The premises in the OP are just a breakdown of claims made by people who claim the singularity is an inevitable result of creating a superhuman AI, all of which must be true for these people to be correct in that conclusion, so you saying that one or more is false but the conslusion is correct would be contradictory. If you are not reffering to the OP please cite what it is that you are referring to.
  • zedvictor4
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    --> @Discipulus_Didicit
    The existence of matter.

    Is it chance or is it purposeful.

    Therefore might the evolution of matter as it has occurred, be an inevitable process.

    if so, do we have any real say in the process or are we just a part of an inevitable evolutionary sequence?

    Is technological singularity the ultimate God?

    The God that reinitiated the sequence and the God that we will help to recreate and the God that will once again reinitiate the sequence.