will China pass America economically?

Author: Trent0405 ,

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  • Trent0405
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    I'm not quite sure, China has the population but doesn't produce as much oil, we thought Japan would pass America and that didn't work out, I guess we'll see.

    There isn't enough evidence to prove either way in my opinion.

    What do you think?
  • Imabench
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    While they have the population and resource capacity to rival the US, theyre going to get turbofucked by inner government corruption and their population demographics. 

    The one child policy is going to bite China HARD when the population ages to the point that a large share of society is no longer useful. That combined with widespread environmental and urban planning failures, an economy that thrives more from knocking off US tech than innovating on their own, their tying of reforms to whoever the current president is rather then trying to de-chain themselves from centralized authority will hinder them enough to keep them behind the US for at least the next 30 years or so. 
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Imabench
    Goddamn that was spot on.
  • Imabench
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    --> @Greyparrot
    Thanks <3

    The 21st century will still belong to the US, at least the first half. Im 80% sure the second half will to depending on a few factors 

  • Dr.Franklin
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    maybe, but China will never match America
  • dylancatlow
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    --> @Trent0405

    The answer depends on how one wants to think of economic supremacy. If by this one means "which country has the largest GDP," then China has already surpassed the US, at least in terms of real GDP. But that's not a very useful measure, since not all economic activity is globally relevant. A country that is still at a stage of economic development where most citizens are primarily concerned with being able to afford basic necessities may nevertheless have a large GDP if it also happens to be highly populated. But if the majority of citizens are barely scrapping by, it doesn't really matter to the rest of the world how wealthy the country as a whole is. Such a country may as well be located on a different planet, unless it decided to use its large GDP to apply military pressure. 

    It's very likely that China will eventually surpass the US in terms of nominal GDP as well, but I think the more important question is: "Will it be an economic center on par with the US?" There too, I believe the answer will hinge on one's intereptation, since I think the US will continue to outproduce China in terms of e.g., Nobel Laureates, for at least the next 50-100 years.
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @dylancatlow
    More importantly, the USA will have the highest wealth per individual than China for the next 50 years at least.
  • dylancatlow
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    --> @Greyparrot
    Oh, well if we're talking about GDP capita, I don't think there's any guarantee or even that it's likely that China will ever surpass the US. I think the absolute best it could hope for would be to perform as well as Hong Kong, and as it stands now Hong Kong is slightly poorer than the US. Things may change as the US gets progressively "more diverse," but I just doubt that China is going to catch up before the world goes boom.