Do You agree with these electoral scores for 2020?

Author: Dr.Franklin ,

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  • Dr.Franklin
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    Yes, well mostly of them should be different, Minnesota should be a tossup.

    Last, NC should be Lean Republican and NEw Mexico should be Likely Democratic, bush won it once so it could be competitive

  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    I took a look at the states you mentioned. If you disagree, please let me know why. 

    Minnesota should be a tossup.
    Minnesota was a tight election in 2016. But in 2018 the democrats were up by over 11 points, 55.13% 43.68%.

    Trump's polling numbers are pretty heavily underwater too. His job performance approval in Minnesota is around 41% while his disapproval rating is staying around 55%

    The head to head polls suggest all of the democratic front runners would beat him by 9 to 17 points (9 being sanders, 17 being klobuchar)

    The polling does not suggest that is is a tossup.

    NC should be Lean Republican
    In the 2018 election the republicans got 50.39%, the dems got 48.35%. That's a difference of about 2 points.

    Trumps approval to disapproval seems to stay at pretty much 50/50.

    That sounds like a toss up to me. The republicans don't seem to have much of an edge there at the moment. 

    NEw Mexico should be Likely Democratic, bush won it once so it could be competitive
    In the 2018 election the dems got 58.25% to the republicans 38.20%. That is a difference of 20 points. 

    Trump's approval rating is about 41% to about 56% disapproval. 

    A 20 point lead for the dems in the latest election and trump being 15% underwater on approval rating seems like solid dem to me. 

  • Dr.Franklin
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    The polling does not suggest that is is a tossup.
    The polling did not show trump winning in 2016 either, look at the better facts: 1.Hillary barely won,2. GOP gained house seats in minnesota, rare for a midterm


    In the 2018 election the republicans got 50.39%, the dems got 48.35%. That's a difference of about 2 points.
    Which is a lean republican

    Trumps approval to disapproval seems to stay at pretty much 50/50.
    Who cares? Approval meaning doesnt mean anything if the democrats cant provide a democrat

    A 20 point lead for the dems in the latest election and trump being 15% underwater on approval rating seems like solid dem to me. 

    I agree, I cahnge my mimd
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    The polling did not show trump winning in 2016 either, look at the better facts: 1.Hillary barely won,2. GOP gained house seats in minnesota, rare for a midterm
    The most recent election has the republicans down by 11 points. That isn't a poll. That is an election. Those are solid indisputable numbers of who turned up to vote for each side. The republicans would need to do a fair bit better in this election than in the last one in order to be competitive. That certainly doesn't mean it is a lock for the dems. But the stats show it is leaning that way. 

    Which is a lean republican
    2% is a tiny margin. If you think that should mean that we read that as leans one way, then Arizona should be leans dem, Pennsylvania should be leans dem, and wisconsin should be leans dem. They all had a wider spread than 2% for the dems in the 2018 election. If you want to put 3 more states in leans dem so you can have that one, sure i guess. 

    Who cares? Approval meaning doesnt mean anything if the democrats cant provide a democrat
    1) it means half the state doesn't approve of what he is doing as president are are therefore likely to vote against him.
    2) what does "if the democrats cant provide a democrat" mean? There will be a nominee. Has anyone suggested that there won't be?


  • Dr.Franklin
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    T  

  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    2% is a tiny margin. If you think that should mean that we read that as leans one way, then Arizona should be leans dem, Pennsylvania should be leans dem, and wisconsin should be leans dem. They all had a wider spread than 2% for the dems in the 2018 election. If you want to put 3 more states in leans dem so you can have that one, sure i guess. 

    Theyre tossups because of 2016, NC has always been red

    The most recent election has the republicans down by 11 points. That isn't a poll. That is an election. Those are solid indisputable numbers of who turned up to vote for each side. The republicans would need to do a fair bit better in this election than in the last one in order to be competitive. That certainly doesn't mean it is a lock for the dems. But the stats show it is leaning that way. 
    How did they flip two house seats then budddodoododd
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    Theyre tossups because of 2016, NC has always been red
    Dems got the majority of votes in NC in 2008 and in 2012. 

    But i'm not certain the history of the state that far back is all that relevant, they are leaning dem right now. Who they supported 10 years ago isn't all that important. 

    How did they flip two house seats then budddodoododd
    The republicans won the 3 lowest population districts. The Dems won the 5 highest population districts. 

    The democrats also flipped 2 for a net change of 0. Meaning the dems control 5 of 8 districts.

    But the fact that they got 11 points more support is a significant shift in their favor. 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    Dems got the majority of votes in NC in 2008 and in 2012. 

    Romney won the state, DUH 2008 was just a landslide, I mean fucking indiana voted blue that year

    The republicans won the 3 lowest population districts. The Dems won the 5 highest population districts. 

    The democrats also flipped 2 for a net change of 0. Meaning the dems control 5 of 8 districts.

    But the fact that they got 11 points more support is a significant shift in their favor. 
    just the city turnouts, plus in 2020, trump is differenbt
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    Romney won the state, DUH 2008 was just a landslide, I mean fucking indiana voted blue that year
    I was just highlighting that they are not always red. They have voted majority democrat twice in recent history. But again, historical voting is much less important than recent voting, which is 11 point dem lead. 

    just the city turnouts, plus in 2020, trump is differenbt
    I agree that trump is different. His approval is in the toilet. He is in the middle of getting impeached. I mean just today we heard from a senior military official who said that he was so concerned about trump's actions on that call that he reported it to his superiors. Trump got alot of support by claiming he would drain the swamp. To alot of people, he has proven that he is just as bad, if not worse, than everyone else in the swamp. To people who love trump this won't matter. But that is only about 35% of the country. To everyone else, it will matter. 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    I was just highlighting that they are not always red. They have voted majority democrat twice in recent history. But again, historical voting is much less important than recent voting, which is 11 point dem lead. 
    So?


    I agree that trump is different. His approval is in the toilet. He is in the middle of getting impeached. I mean just today we heard from a senior military official who said that he was so concerned about trump's actions on that call that he reported it to his superiors. Trump got alot of support by claiming he would drain the swamp. To alot of people, he has proven that he is just as bad, if not worse, than everyone else in the swamp. To people who love trump this won't matter. But that is only about 35% of the country. To everyone else, it will matter. 
    Talking about his appeal to blue collar
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    So?
    You claimed they were always red. I proved that isn't true. I also proved that at the moment they are leaning dem. This would seem to justify them being ruled as "leaning dem". I don't understand what you mean by "So?". 

    Talking about his appeal to blue collar
    You think that blue collar people want an impeached criminal as their president? There is about 35% who are so far in his corner they will never be swayed. about 50% want him impeached and removed from office right now. the other 15% are open to being convinced. And there have been a couple of damning witnesses already with more to come. 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    fake stats
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    fake stats
    If you mean the electoral stats, I gave the links. They are very real. 

    If you mean his approval/impeachment, here is a link showing support for trumps impeachment and removal at 51% and trumps job approval rating at 39%. 



    Here is a link to a fox news poll showing support for impeachment and removal at 51% and his job approval rating at 43%

    The fact is that at this very moment, about half the country wants trump impeached. How many people are so far gone they will never connect with reality is a question without a firm answer. The floor for his approval has been about 33-35%. So I would say that is a good number for the amount of people who are such rabid supporters that they either can't acknowledge he is a criminal, or simply don't care. 

    That leaves about 15% of the population who neither want to impeach him yet, but aren't so disconnected that they will never look at the evidence of his guilt. 

    If you think part of that is fake, please be specific about what.
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    T   
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    I'm not sure what "T" means. 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    Trump will be relecetd
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    Trump will be relecetd
    Do you have any facts to back up that claim? This topic started with a discussion of a document that would suggest he wont. I proved the document's descriptions were accurate. When presented with facts and statistics you appear to have just reverted to giving your opinion instead of actually engaging with what is going on in the US. 

    If you think Trump will win, and I am not discounting that possibility, then please provide evidence to support that opinion. 
  • Imabench
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    This looks pretty accurate just from a quick glance. Virginia is definitely trending in the Blue direction while Ohio went HARD red in 2016 and seems to be shifting more that way, especially compared to other states traditionally considered swing states. I still have two main disagreements:

    1 - Wisconsin should be Leans Democratic instead of Toss up
    2 - Arizona should be Leans Republican instead of Toss up

    Hillary almost won the state of Wisconsin in 2016 without even stepping foot in the state up until maybe the last week. Any competent Dem candidate that fields a decent ground force in the state should be able to walk away with it in 2020, especially against Trump this time around. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html

    Arizona on the other hand im still skeptical about. Granted Trump only won the state by about 4 points in 2016 which is a far slimmer margin then some other swing states in 2016 (Ohio), but it still seems like solid GOP territory. Senator Jeff Flake retired from the state as a member of the GOP, but I think that was more due to his objections with Trump redefining the GOP around himself rather then fears of not being re-elected, and whoever wins the GOP nomination to replace him I think will win the seat due to demographics of the state.... Maybe 2 or 3 more cycles from now Arizona will definitely be a swing state, but this time around I still think it leans Republican and isnt a tossup compared to NC or FL. 




  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Imabench
    Arizona should be Leans Republican instead of Toss up
    As you pointed out, in 2016 the dems were pretty close. The 2018 elections had the democrats winning the popular vote by almost 2 points, 50.37% to 48.66%.


    Trumps approval rating is also slightly underwater, 50% disapproval, 47% approval. 

    This part I have little evidence to support, but since a charge chunk of their population (31%) is Hispanic, I don't think trump's racism plays as well as it does in other areas. If the republicans were running a generic presidential candidate it would likely be leans republicans. With Trump on the ticket, that seems much less clear. 

    Arizona is historically a republican area, but at the moment it is looking like it could be a toss up. 




  • Imabench
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    It's certainly closer to being a toss-up state more than it ever was in the past, and the hispanic part surely plays into that to some degree. I concede that much. I just am skeptical of a state going from as reliably red as it was in the Obama years to being a pure toss-up state just two election cycles later.

    Admittedly the numbers indicate it is a tossup state and I even said before that any state where the margin of difference is below 5% puts a state purely into toss-up status, Im just hesitant right now to put it as anything other then 'lean Republican' due to its voting history even recently. The state voted 9 points for Romney over Obama in 2012 and 8 points for McCain over Obama in 2008, for there to be an almost 10% demographic shift in favor of the Democrats in under 10 years is just far-fetched for me to believe.  
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Imabench
    The state voted 9 points for Romney over Obama in 2012 and 8 points for McCain over Obama in 2008, for there to be an almost 10% demographic shift in favor of the Democrats in under 10 years is just far-fetched for me to believe.  
    Fair enough. I think it is perfectly warranted to be skeptical. I suspect it is more about trump than about democrats or republicans. Trump is a repugnant man. In a state where 1/3rd of the population is Hispanic, that means that a very large percentage of the population is going to have a personal connection to Hispanic people. So calling Mexicans rapists and drumming up fears about a "caravan" might play well in some states. I don't think it does as well in Arizona. 

    If trump is on the ticket in the next election, then I think the state is a toss up. If trump for some reason weren't on the ticket, it would probably be leans republican. 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    Why does one block just to still communicate with him??
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    Why does one block just to still communicate with him??
    In a previous debate he engaged in a string of ad-hominem attacks. I am happy to debate with him as long as he is remaining civil. For the moment that is the case. If he were to return to his attacks I would stop communicating with him. 

  • Dr.Franklin
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    thank you come again, HAVE A NICE TIME