Dr.Franklins Epic Guide to the Senate Races for 2020

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  • Dr.Franklin
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    Even though the senate race is 23 defending republicans and only 12 defending democrats, most of the Republican Senate seats are in deep-red territory. So it is important to look at the competitive races instead.

    A SUPER IMPORTANT KEY IS THE INCUMBENCY POWER- Basically, if fewer people know about you, the less your incumbency advantage you have, IT IS A HUGE factor for Senate Races.

    1.AL-Jones(D)

    Alabama is deep red territory, but Jones won because Roy Moore was incompetent of winning and the fraud sexual assault scandals actually worked instead of just a distraction, He should have handled it like Kavanaugh instead of being a massive cuck saying sorry and to BeLiEvE tHe WoMeN, like fuck no, and letting the media suck the life out of his campaign.

    His approval ratings are ok but again the main show in 2020 is Trump VS. A Democrat so it depends if the voters swing one way for Trump, but it's Alabama so anything could happen

    AZ-McSally(R)

    She lost once but replaced John Fucktard Mcain. Arizona is becoming a MAJOR BATTLEGROUND state so anything could happen, This one relies completely on the presidential Election as McSally is a typical Arizona Republican. Tossup but a slight lean republican based on Trump's numbers in Arizona.

    CO-Gardner(R)

    I'm gonna be honest, This is a Dem Flip. Colorado is a blue state now and nobody knows who Gardner is in his home state. I expect at least a Dem gain of 1 on the night from this.

    ME-Collins(I but caucuses with the Republicans)

    Another complete tossup based on the Presidental Race, nothing more to say either that Collins could be challenged in the Primary. Trump won Maine 2nd District and She is an Independent. Tossup

    NC-Tillis(R)

    NC is a tossup in the Presidental Election, so this race will be Competitive but his approval ratings are good and has a big incumbency advantage with a large number of people knowing about him. Probably a GOP Hold. 

    MI-Peters(D)

    He has a good approval rating and Michigan seems to be turning the tide back to their blue origins especially with the rising black population and the continuous decline of the automobile industry and the middle blue-collar class has this going for the Dems BUT the incumbency advancement for this guy is dog shit. So it will be competitive. Possibly a GOP flip. Who knows?

    That's it for the competitive races, now the rest of the races which no one cares about.

    SEATS EXPECTED TO HOLD DEM

    DE-Collins
    IL-Durbin
    MA-Markey(fuck this guy, I live in Mass, seriously fuck him AND Pocohonatasm and while we're at it, fuck Baker)
    NH-Shaheen
    NJ-Booker
    OR-Merkley
    RI-Reed
    VA-Warner
    MN-Smith
    NM-Open

    SEATS EXPECTED TO HOLD GOP

    GA-Open
    GA-Perdue
    IA-Ernst
    KS-Open
    KY-McConnell
    MS-Hyde-Smith
    TN-Open
    AK-Sullivan
    AR-Cotton
    ID-Risch
    LA-Cassidy
    MT-Daines
    NE-Sasse
    OK-Inhofe
    SC-Graham
    SD-Rounds
    TX-Cornyn
    WV-Moore Capito
    WY-Open

    NOTICE: If you want me to do a House race one, I can but it is too much to handle at once, so I will divide it up by regions of America. I can easily do a Governer's one and that's on the way
  • Dr.Franklin
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    This is my most quality post so don't let it flop
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    House is far more important.
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @Greyparrot
    Completely Disagree, Senate is so key to keep when especially we defend so many seats
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    no.
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @Greyparrot
    yes.
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    NOTICE: If you want me to do a House race one, I can...
    Do it.
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @Greyparrot
    ok 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    bump
  • Imabench
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    Id be fuckin shocked if the Alabama seat somehow stayed blue and if the Colorado seat somehow stayed Red. 

    The Senate race that has my attention the most is the one in Arizona. If the GOP only barely hold on to the seat or if a Democrat manages to claim it, then it 100% confirms the state is now a swing state/toss up state which is a fairly big development since the state's 11 electoral votes are nothing to scoff at..... Michigan and North Carolina are already swing states and will likely stay that way, Maine no matter which way it swings doesnt have much electoral significance behind it.... Arizona though shifting or staying is a big deal which is the one I will keep an eye on. 

    Then in 2022 the Senate elections REALLY get interesting 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @Imabench
    Id be fuckin shocked if the Alabama seat somehow stayed blue and if the Colorado seat somehow stayed Red. 
    Colorado yeah no fucking shit, but Jones is a proud Alabaman. The South Love their homeboys like Biden.

    The Senate race that has my attention the most is the one in Arizona. If the GOP only barely hold on to the seat or if a Democrat manages to claim it, then it 100% confirms the state is now a swing state/toss up state which is a fairly big development since the state's 11 electoral votes are nothing to scoff at..... Michigan and North Carolina are already swing states and will likely stay that way, Maine no matter which way it swings doesnt have much electoral significance behind it.... Arizona though shifting or staying is a big deal which is the one I will keep an eye on. 

    I agree.

    Then in 2022 the Senate elections REALLY get interesting 

    How so?
  • Imabench
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    Check out some of the states holding Senate races in 2022:


    Arizona
    Wisconsin
    Florida
    North Carolina
    Pennsylvania
    Ohio
    Georgia
    Iowa
    Nevada
    Indiana

    Almost every state that is considered either a swing state or has voted for presidents for both parties has Senate races in 2022. The Senate barely changed in 2018, it likely wont shift too much in 2020, but in 2022 it is entirely possible for the Senate to flip from Red to Blue, from Red to 50-50, or even go deeper Red depending on what happens in 2020.