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@Vader
what changed to make them that wayMy reads have shifted to the point where I think you are town
Virt's Mafia DP3
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Total:
68
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@Barney
@PressF4Respect
It's crunch time guys, we're gonna need a bit more activity from you two today if we wanna solve this thing.
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@David
@drafterman
Can you see if drafter can replace supadudz?
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@Vader
Yes you were. I recall it too your unvote
Yeah, cause he answered the question correctly
Ragnar wasn't excess. It took 5 to lynch. it was luna, warren, supa, press and the hammer was ragnar. math math
Look at the rules it's whoever has the most votes gets lynched
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@Lunatic
I have accepted, just waiting for modfirmation.
Drafterman is subbing in for Supa
Okay. Reading up on the DP.
FOS Supa
Wait...
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@drafterman
What do you think? Should we ask vig to claim today so we can POE the remaining four players? Or No lynch?
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@Lunatic
I haven't received my role PM yet. I don't know my affiliation. Answer pending, ;)
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@Lunatic
I don't think we should no lynch.
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@WaterPhoenix
Why were you so convinced grey was town? Especially after getting the vanilla wording wrong?
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@Lunatic
I was just convinced you were wrong, no offense.
I'm vanilla. I looked over last DP and warren's interactions. I think he was avoiding the Grey DP deliberately to gain town cred and push for a mislynch. He was FOSing ragnar and press, so I'm inclined to lean town on them.
Lunatic is being very peppy and friendly, so I think he's either vig or scum trying to look town.
That leaves:
VTL Water
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@drafterman
Dude, can you at least give a reason? And what scum doesn't try to look like town?
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@WaterPhoenix
I... I gave my reason. I think warren was planting the seeds for a future mislynch on press or ragnar.
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@drafterman
I'm vanilla. I looked over last DP and warren's interactions. I think he was avoiding the Grey DP deliberately to gain town cred and push for a mislynch. He was FOSing ragnar and press, so I'm inclined to lean town on them
This was my thoughts exactly. It's also kind of why I am suspicious of water, I felt like both him and warren were staying away from the GP lynch because it would give them town cred. That's actually why I told vig to lynch warren there at the end, because warren was trying to use the greyparrot lynch to his town cred.
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@drafterman
And I'm doing that too?
So if we are going to lynch today, I guess vig might as well come out now and assist with POE. I am the vig. If I don't claim now I run the risk of getting night killed tonight, and if we are lynching, vig doesn't get another kill anyway. If we were lynching today my vote would be for water, so since drafter's on board let's run that plan instead of the no lynching plan. If we are wrong, we still should be at LYLO tomorrow which I think will favor town.
Mafia can't CC me today, but they can tomorrow, so today might be best for me to come out anyway.
VTL waterphoenix.
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@WaterPhoenix
No....
Btw, I targeted speed NP1 because I felt it was the safest option. I knew their was a risk of Speed being town vanilla trying to draw the nk, but it would have been flat out stupid to hedge my bet on that, if we actually was scum trying to draw the vig. Also I didn't really suspect ragnar DP1, I was trying to buddy up to speed so I could avoid being NK'ed because I was paranoid he knew it was me, and also to analyze the wagon (that's why I asked him what his reads were towards the end.
Warren I suspected since mafia didn't target speed, and he was like the only person in DP1 floating the idea that speed was trying to draw the NK.
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@Barney
@PressF4Respect
Where are you guys on water? I really wanna hear from you two.
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@Lunatic
@drafterman
@WaterPhoenix
I'm thinking we should VTNL.
If we lynch someone, there is a 1/5 chance of getting scum.
If we don't get scum, then we're left with 4 players going into the night.
Vig has 1/4 chance of hitting scum.
If vig doesn't hit scum, then scum will NK another person and we will be left with 2 players.
At that point, we lose.
If we instead chose to VTNL this round, we would be left with 5 players going into the night.
If vig gets scum (1/5 chance), great. If not, then we go on to next DP.
By the next day, we would have 3 (one scum kill and one vig kill).
The chance of lynching scum is now 1/3.
In summary, the odds of hitting scum is higher if we VTNL than if we lynch today.
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@Lunatic
I'll have to re-read the last DP closely for clues from WaterWhere are you guys on water? I really wanna hear from you two.
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@PressF4Respect
Too late, I am the vig and already claimed. I'm not making it another np, we need to try and find scum now. If we mislynch we still have a LYLO situation tomorrow which is a good thing.
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@PressF4Respect
We have an UnCCed vig claim. Odds of hitting scum are 1/4, not 1/5. If we mislynch, vig necessarily dies tonight and probably won't vig for the reason you specify. We end up at 2v1 lylo tomorrow anyway.
Jesus Christ, I'm vanilla town and not mafia. We can't afford a mislynch guys pleaseeeeeeee.
wait nvm we can
I shall die for the good of the town.
VTL WaterPhoenix