Prediction: Warren will end campaign within a month

Author: Imabench ,

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  • Imabench
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    Following the fuckfest that was Iowa where the clear winners were Bernie, Buttigieg, and Paper Ballots, the next four contests are as follows:

    1 - New Hampshire (2/11)
    2 - Nevada (2/22)
    3 - South Carolina (2/29)
    4 - Super Tuesday (3/3)

    New Hampshire looks like it will end up being a clean version of what Iowa was supposed to be, with Bernie and Buttigieg being the winners while Warren and Biden finish in the second tier. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html This shouldnt come as a surprise since Sanders has pulled away in the state since Jan 23rd, though Buttigieg leapfrogging Biden thanks to his win in Iowa is noticeable and spells problems for any other candidate looking for a bounce back. If Buttigieg manages to pull off a clean win there, he could make a legitimate case as the candidate for moderate centrists and really challenge Biden

    Nevada is now a tossup, only because Bob Steyer being the fuckstick he is by trying to buy the nomination himself now has 10% support in the state which can really fuck with the rest of the candidates who actually have a shot at winning the nomination. Whether they will flake from Steyer following a drubbing in NH remains to be seen, but with 2-4 points separating Sanders and Biden in the state that doesnt vote for another 2 weeks, its anyones ball game there

    South Carolina Will be the definitive early win Biden needs to legitimize his candidacy, he can thank the large African American vote in the state for that much. Whether he wins by a smidge or by a massive margin could determine the validity of his campaign going into the next stretch of the primaries, but he will almost certainly be able to get a W in SC barring some sort of massive fuckup by his part

    Super Tuesday........ Here's where shit really gets interesting...... With Super Tuesday taking place just 4 days after SC, a lot of candidates may be willing to surrender the state to Biden and campaign elsewhere to pull out some upsets. FOURTEEN states are up for grabs, some of which are major prizes

    Alabama
    Arkansas
    Colorado
    Maine
    Massachusetts
    Minnesota
    North Carolina
    Oklahoma
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah
    Vermont
    Virginia

    Some of these states will almost not even be competitive..... Based on polling and whether or not its someones home state, I reorganized the states listed above into groups based on who they are likely to be won by bases on polling, and which are genuine tossups


    Texas = Likely Biden, Southern State and he polls well https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/texas/
    Virginia = Likely Biden, Southern State and he polls well https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/virginia/
    Alabama = Likely Biden, Southern State
    Arkansas = Likely Biden, Southern State
    Tennessee = Likely Biden, Southern State


    Massachusetts = Likely Warren, its her home state


    Utah = Likely Sanders, recent poll gives him 12 point lead https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/utah/
    Vermont = Likely Sanders, it's his home state
    Colorado = Likely Sanders. No polling available but Sanders carried the state by 20 points against Hillary during the 2016 primary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#March_1,_2016:_Super_Tuesday


    Maine = Tossup between Biden, Bernie, and Warren. All three within 5 points of each other https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/maine/
    Minnesota = Complete Tossup. Klobuchar's home state but there's no polling available and Bernie won hard there in 2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#March_1,_2016:_Super_Tuesday
    Oklahoma = Tossup, no polling available but sanders won it 52%-42% in 2016 so he might have an edge there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#March_1,_2016:_Super_Tuesday

    With Warren likely not going to pull out a surprise win in either New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina, her big moment will have to come in some of the many states up for grabs on super Tuesday.... But even then, the only ones that look like they can be clinched are Maine, Minnesota, and Oklahoma..... A big win in Maine or Oklahoma isnt going to convince anyone that Warren at this stage can hang in the rest of the primaries against Biden or Sanders, and Minnesota might not even be available given the strength of Bernie's performance in the state last time in 2016 + Klobuchar having it be her home state, which eliminates virtually all of Warrens options.... 

    Barring an almost record collection of close second place finishes in the states above, Warren won't be able to justify staying in the race after Super Tuesday since there isnt a single state she can safely or even aggressively target to win. Biden has the Southern states, Sanders polls very well in three others, and on top of that Buttigieg may worm his way into the race if he can translate strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire into national strength. 

    With Super Tuesday less than a month away (25 days), Warren could very well be pushed out of the nomination within a month (30.5 days) and have to concede.... Even endorsements from the dropping out of other lesser candidates like Yang, Bloomberg, Tulsi, and Steyer might not be enough to salvage operations 









  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Imabench
    I really didn't think Warren would fuck it up so badly.

    I was 100% sure the DNC would shoe her in over Biden.
  • bmdrocks21
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    --> @Imabench
    Honestly, I figured she would get a huge lead being the "compromise candidate", but she blew it. If Biden stopped telling everyone to vote for someone else, he might be able to pull off a win.

    Just for fun, if Sanders won the nomination, would you vote Trump or Bernie? (Just completely ignore third parties like most Americans for the sake of the question).



  • Imabench
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    If Biden stopped telling everyone to vote for someone else, he might be able to pull off a win.
    He admittedly is starting to make me worry about that. If he has too many of those moments he could def cough up the nomination or even the general election. He's super fucking fortunate that Pete Buttigieg doesnt have a lot of high level experience and that Klobuchar isnt doing well in the polls, otherwise he might be fucked after NH this week. 

    Just for fun, if Sanders won the nomination, would you vote Trump or Bernie?
    In pure honesty, if that had been the matchup in 2016 I wouldnt have even voted..... Both candidates to me represent such extremes within the two parties that as a result, neither of them would be able to pass any sort of legislation of substantial importance through Congress that couldnt be immediately nullified by the next president after them..... The GOP wouldnt approve anything Bernie wants, Dems fight Trump on just about everything he wants. It would be partisan gridlock no matter which you pick, so in 2016 I wouldnt have even voted for one and maybe just stayed home. 

    Now though, as a moderate democrat, I would lean Bernie. The same partisan gridlock still applies to domestic legislation either way, but the tiebreaker is foreign policy...... Trump is very inconsistent and arguably haphazard with how he levies tariffs to other countries and blocs, to the point that even threats of trade tariffs dont have much effect since one or two weeks later Trump could very much change his mind about things and not follow through.... Bernie I imagine would be more consistent and follow through better, where if he made threats of trade tariffs to other countries he would certainly back it up and not change his mind on a whim after about a week. 

    Conduct in foreign policy is literally the only tiebreaker though. Policy wise theyre both down shit creek without a paddle. 

  • bmdrocks21
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    Hehe, I respect the honesty.

    It could be because I am a conservative, but I don’t really view Trump as being extreme, outside of maybe refugee status. He hasn’t really reduced spending. His abortion reforms are non-existent. Taxes got lowered, but not radically. Deregulating faster than regulating. Seems like a standard moderate Republican.
  • Imabench
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    After a poor showing in NH, some high level supporters of Warren have conceded that she may be finished in 2020, and argue that a new factor may accelerate her exit from the race that hadn't been considered before: Amy Klobuchar. 

    After nearly winning 20% of the vote in NH (Klobuchar finished just shy at 19.8% compared to Warren's 9.3%) some are theorizing that Warren may be being pushed out of the liberal vote by Sanders, but also is being pushed back from the center by Klobuchar, who as a female senator like Warren is now presenting herself as a legitimate and viable candidate. A strong debate performance prior to the NH vote combined with multiple endorsements from NH newspapers may propel Klobuchar into national consideration among voters. 

    Considering that she got more votes in New Hampshire than Warren and Biden COMBINED, thats not a big stretch to imagine. 

    Buttigieg campaigned hard in Iowa and NH dumping almost everything he had into the races. There is not another race in the future where he is projected to win as of right now. If he slides hard when Nevada and South Carolina vote, but Klobuchar manages to stick around and do well, she could siphon off not only voters from Buttigieg and Biden, but also those still supporting Warren who value her for being a woman and also not being as liberal as Bernie. 

    Before Warren was being squeezed out of the race by Biden and Sanders, now it may end up being Klobuchar that puts the final nail in the coffin. 
  • WaterPhoenix
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    --> @Imabench
    Ugh god, the sooner warren's out the better. I think she'll drop out even sooner though, she sucked in iowa and will likely suck in all the other states.
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Imabench
    Buttigieg campaigned hard in Iowa and NH dumping almost everything he had into the races. There is not another race in the future where he is projected to win as of right now. If he slides hard when Nevada and South Carolina vote, but Klobuchar manages to stick around and do well, she could siphon off not only voters from Buttigieg and Biden, but also those still supporting Warren who value her for being a woman and also not being as liberal as Bernie. 
    That's a pretty big if. Klobochar has little support outside the 1st two states. I think the last national poll I saw put her at 0% support among black people. Unless something radically changes for her, she has no path to winning. 

  • Imabench
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    Oh I dont think Klobuchar will have a chance to win at all either, barring some sort of unprecedented surge on Super Tuesday.... Her relevance as a candidate lies with Warren's struggles, because Warren needs every vote she can get to stay in the campaign yet Klobuchar bit off an enormous chunk in NH.... 

    Even if Klobuchar doesnt win any state primary, if she keeps siphoning off votes from Warren just by being considered an alternative, it would doom Warren who is already struggling massively  
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Imabench
    Even if Klobuchar doesnt win any state primary, if she keeps siphoning off votes from Warren just by being considered an alternative, it would doom Warren who is already struggling massively  
    I think warren is doomed no matter what. She is a candidate without any clear lane. She started out as a progressive and went on to (very briefly) become the national front runner. But then she starting taking all her advice from former clinton advisors. She came out with a healthcare plan that was widely seen as either stupid or a cop out. she started leaning heavily into "identity politics" and away from her "I have a plan for that" policy focused campaign she started with. She also took a really cheap shot at Bernie which most saw as a cynical politcal attack, which is completely against her brand.

    At this point she has lost most of her base. Most progressives prefer Bernie, most centerists prefer Biden, butigieg or klobochar. she tried to straddle the line between the two camps and lost most of both. 
  • Imabench
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    She tried to straddle the line between the two camps and lost most of both
    Yeah she definitely pulled a 2012 Newt Gingrich after shifting on her healthcare stance
  • ILikePie5
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    I’m officially a Bernie bro
  • Alec
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    Surprising, since Trump is your profile pic.  I disagree with Sanders on some things, but he's no socialist.  He wants small government on the military industrial complex, which is something I agree with him on.  I wouldn't call myself a Bernie Bro.  If Bernie does something I don't like, I would criticize him for it, but I think Bernie Bros share this trait.
  • ILikePie5
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    --> @Alec
    It was a joke😂😂. I’m just voting him in the primaries because he’d be easy to defeat.
  • HistoryBuff
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    It was a joke😂😂. I’m just voting him in the primaries because he’d be easy to defeat.
    sanders is, by far, the biggest threat to trump. He is one of the most popular politicians in the country. His ethics and morality are virtually unquestioned. If Sanders becomes the nominee, Trump is in real trouble. 

  • ILikePie5
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    sanders is, by far, the biggest threat to trump. He is one of the most popular politicians in the country. His ethics and morality are virtually unquestioned. If Sanders becomes the nominee, Trump is in real trouble. 

    He’s only popular among people who are very liberal. There’s a fracture in the Democratic Party between Moderates and these Progressives. Moderates will either stay home and not vote for either or vote for Trump. It’s essentially a battle between Socialism and Capitalism in which no Moderate will vote for Socialism.
  • HistoryBuff
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    He’s only popular among people who are very liberal.
    do you have any evidence to support that hypothesis? Polling shows he is the most popular senator in the country. His supporters are predominantly working class people who realize that the economy is designed to screw them over. These people are not "very liberal". They are just people.
  • ILikePie5
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    do you have any evidence to support that hypothesis? Polling shows he is the most popular senator in the country. His supporters are predominantly working class people who realize that the economy is designed to screw them over. These people are not "very liberal". They are just people.

    I could look up stats but I’m not going to. I’ve asked my teachers who are these Moderate Democrats. Each and everyone has said they’d have some serious soul searching to do if Bernie is the nominee because he is radical. It’s anecdotal but it’s widespread in my case. Even Moderate Republicans who dislike Trump (Never Trumpers) told me that if Bernie was the nominee they’d vote for Trump in a heartbeat because Bernie is a radical. Even if the divide between Moderate and Progressive is 20-80 and 7-8% of the 20% vote Trump it choose not to vote at all, benefits Trump.
  • HistoryBuff
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    It’s anecdotal but it’s widespread in my case.
    you have underlined exactly why your point is irrelevant. You only have a tiny sample you are using. Perhaps in your specific town/city that is true. You have no information about the other 99.999% of the country. 

    Even Moderate Republicans who dislike Trump (Never Trumpers) told me that if Bernie was the nominee they’d vote for Trump in a heartbeat because Bernie is a radical.
    Republicans will likely end up voting for trump no matter what. The idea that any democratic candidate could get enough republicans to vote for them to make a difference is a joke. 

    Even if the divide between Moderate and Progressive is 20-80 and 7-8% of the 20% vote Trump it choose not to vote at all, benefits Trump.
    this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how politics works. The idea that such a thing as a "moderate" exists simply isn't true. If you asked someone if they are a progressive or a moderate most people would say moderate. If you asked them what they think of specific progressive policies, most would support them. 
  • ILikePie5
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    you have underlined exactly why your point is irrelevant. You only have a tiny sample you are using. Perhaps in your specific town/city that is true. You have no information about the other 99.999% of the country. 
    Im not arguing lol. Just stating what I’ve observed from people close to me who despise Trump’s guts 🤷‍♂️

    Republicans will likely end up voting for trump no matter what. The idea that any democratic candidate could get enough republicans to vote for them to make a difference is a joke. 
    I agree Republicans will vote for Trump is Bernie is the nominee. If it’s not Bernie, they won’t vote for the Democrat, they just may not vote for Trump either.

    this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how politics works. The idea that such a thing as a "moderate" exists simply isn't true. If you asked someone if they are a progressive or a moderate most people would say moderate. If you asked them what they think of specific progressive policies, most would support them. 
    Candidates that are much much more moderate than Bernie Sanders have more people supporting them combined then Sanders and Warren combined. That’s all I’m going to say. Not to mention the fact that Democrats didn’t win the House with candidates in the mold of Bernie and AOC, rather in the mold of moderates. Moderate House Democrats are sounding the alarm over a Bernie nomination...
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @ILikePie5
    Moderate House Democrats are sounding the alarm over a Bernie nomination...

    Moderate Dems in Trump districts voted for faux impeachment. They won't hold their seats no matter who gets the nomination.
  • ILikePie5
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    --> @Greyparrot
    Moderate Dems in Trump districts voted for faux impeachment. They won't hold their seats no matter who gets the nomination.

    Probably, but the chances go much much higher coupled with Bernie at the top of the ticket 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    I agree
  • HistoryBuff
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    If you happened to watch the debate last night, she basically said she isn't going to drop out. The last question was about whether a candidate who gets a plurality of delegates but not a majority on the 1st vote should be the nominee. She was very clear that she was holding onto her delegates in the 1st vote which would mean she is staying in it to the end. 

    She has a point too. If bernie has a plurality but not a majority, the DNC will want to try to rig the convention to keep bernie from winning. They will need a candidate to crown to steal it from bernie. If they pick any of the "moderate" (corporatist) candidates they will destroy the democratic party by ensuring that huge chunks of the democratic base stay home. They might even split off a whole new party if it becomes obvious the democratic party is too corrupt to be saved which would completely doom them.

    Warren is the only one who even has a shot at keeping the party together if they rob bernie. 
  • Imabench
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    Holy shit. 

    Not only did Biden SWEEP all 6 of the states I thought he would win a month ago, he ended up picking up Minnesota, Oklahoma AND Massachusetts 

    Warren lost her home state, finishing THIRD, and couldnt even get delegates out of California, where she got just 12.1% of the vote (15% needed to actually win delegates) or anywhere in the ENTIRE SOUTH (best performance in southern states for Warren was Oklahoma, at 13.4%) 

    Warren BARELY crossed the 15% mark in Minnesota, Colorado and Utah, but apart from those states and Maine, Warren struck out, only getting north of 20% of the vote in one state. (Massachusetts, her home state, where she still came in third)

    Warren's campaign is somehow even more dead in the water than I thought it would be by this point last month. Whether or not she drops out within the next two days to make the prediction come true remains to be seen, but she and Bloomberg are effectively out of the race, making this a showdown between Biden and Sanders.