Let me preface this by saying that if I was the one seeing this headline in the poltiics thread, I would have immediately dismissed it as bullshit without giving it a second thought.... If you're skeptical about the bold claim being made, I completely understand, I find it difficult to forsee happening myself
Just hear me out.
Warren and Bernie have been competing for the more liberal wing of the Dem party. I dont think anyone really disputes that. If you consider Bernie is further to the left of Warren enough to really establish himself as the representative of the far left is one thing, but at the end of the day the only two candidates who could even make an appeal to the liberal wing of the party was Sanders and Warren..... For that reason, its easy to conclude that should one drop out, they would almost certainly endorse the other. With Sanders now the frontrunner and Warren down to 4th, you could conclude that Warren would likely drop out and likely endorse Sanders
Heres the counterargument.
#1) In 2016, Warren never endorsed Bernie over Hillary.
In 2016 we had a clear 1v1 faceoff between a very centrist establishment candidate (Hillary) against a leftist outsider opponent (Bernie) in the primary. Shit, a lot of people wanted Warren to run against Hillary as the leftist representative but instead Bernie was the one who jumped in and carried the torch. You might think that because of how much the two had in common and the legitimate race between the two, Warren would have endorsed Bernie over Hillary since Warren was not campaigning, the primary was a close race, and Bernie clearly was closer to her ideologically than Hillary.... But Warren never endorsed Bernie...... Warren waited until the race was practically over before endorsing Hillary, so even though Warren offered high praise for Bernie all throughout the campaign, she still endorsed Hillary instead.
Maybe though she just knew Hillary would win, or that it was more important to unite behind whichever candidate won to defeat Trump in the general election. Fair theory, fair conclusion.
#2) Following this election, Warren's political career will likely be capped/over thanks to Sanders
In 2018, Warren handily won reelection to the Senate in Massachusetts by an almost 2 to 1 margin. While her Senate term doesnt expire until 2024, right when the next presidential election would be taking place, at that point she would be 74 years old. While the oldest current senator is Dianne Feinstein from California (86 years old), the ability of ANY candidate to win votes in a presidential contest at that age would become a stark problem that would be borderline impossible to overcome..... If Trump loses in 2020 and a Dem takes the White House in 2020, then the next opening for Dems to jump in would be 2028, where Warren would be approaching 80 if she tried running then.
To summarize, this election and this run for President was arguably Warren's last good shot where she had decent odds to actually win the nomination. Assuming she doesnt win at this point, she will not get a better opportunity to win in the future and will be relegated to being a Senator for the remainder of her career barring a VP selection of some sort. If this is the end of the road for a run for president, which it very well appears to be, then SANDERS would be the one most responsible. Not Biden, not Hillary, not the DNC, not the media or some sort of scandal or flip-flop on a policy issue, it would be Sanders. Sanders has flat out eaten her base of support and united the progressive wing of the party behind himself and away from Warren..... If Warren is salty enough at missing out on her shot to be President thanks to Sanders taking over her base, she could endorse a more moderate candidate out of spite.
Maybe though she is not that type of person. Maybe she wouldnt sink to that level over something as petty as spite, that being president was not the only thing in the world she cared about, and losing because Sanders took her base wont upset her in the long term. Fair theory, fair conclusion.
#3) Bernie and Warren have butted heads in the past.
If you watched that last shit-slinging of a Dem debate, 3 things happened. #1, everyone was yelling. #2, Bloomberg sucked a fat dick. #3, Warren was firing shots at EVERYONE, including Bernie. Warren has shifted to total war in the campaign in just about every stage, and that has included against Bernie who is the closest ideological comparison to her in the race.
- She has lumped Bernie together with Biden and Bloomberg in ads for her campaign as "politicians and billionaires won't cut it"
- She has claimed that Bernie "consistently calls for things he fails to get done"
- She has infamously claimed that Bernie told her "A woman cannot defeat Donald Trump" which Bernie fiercely denies
- She has pledged to fight all the way to the convention, ignoring calls to drop out and endorse Sanders to unite the progressive wing
- Theres the infamous debate moment where Sanders went for a handshake at a debate and Warren refused
- Staffers on both Sanders and Warren's campaigns haev complained over dirty tactics used by the other side
If the competing shots between Sanders and Warren is more then just political chess-moves to try to win the progressive base of the party, the two may have at some point crossed the line from being supposed allies with much in common to being any other rival in the Dem primary. If thats the case and that line has supposedly been crossed, then Warren would not owe any allegiance to Bernie just because they are ideologically similar. If the campaign has really left its mark, Warren may endorse Biden or another candidate over Bernie if the strategic benefits in doing so outweigh the benefits of uniting the progressive base behind the best option.
Maybe this is just part of campaigning for president and that these spats and sparring will not leave their mark. Maybe Warren will be able to forgive all of this and still stands firmly with Sanders if she cant represent the progressive wing herself. Fair theory, fair conclusion
#4) Warren's interest in beating Trump may, well, trump her interest in supporting the next ideological candidate
The predominant fact of Dem primary is that voters care more about selecting a candidate best able to beat Donald Trump in a general election than it is to select a candidate that most closely represents ones political beliefs.... While more candidates than ever have run for the nomination and represent many different political stances, in this primary voters just want someone who can beat Trump...... While Biden's position of appealing to centrist and undecided voters unsatisfied with Trump is a pretty easy sell to make, Bernies position of beating Trump by exciting non-voters to come out and support his candidacy is by default riskier. It is just as likely that someone who likes Sanders as a candidate supports him as it is for a centrist and undecided voter to not like Sanders and instead just tough it out with Trump for the last 4 years..... A majority of Dems care more about having someone capable of beating Trump then it is voting for someone that shares their values, we have to consider that Elizabeth Warren might be one of them.
If Warren figures that helping Biden to beat Trump will likely be more successful than if she decided to help Sanders to beat Trump, then she would go with Biden.
She did the same thing in 2016 with Hillary over Bernie
#5 Biden might respect Warren as a VP candidate more than Bernie would respect Warren.
Biden sat out the race in 2016 despite calls for him to enter the race, though he did toy with the idea of entering the race while the opportunity was present. While deciding to jump in or not, Biden made some calls to talk to people about whether or not they would support his campaign over Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. One of the people he turned to, and was actively considering having as his VP on the ticket, happened to be Elizabeth Warren.
Biden values Warren, both her voice and her stances, to the point that from the get-go he was considering having Warren be his VP on a 2016 ticket. Warren's hard stance against Wall Street and subsequent legislation on banking regulations really caught Biden's eye when he considered entering the race, and he actively sought out Warren as a possible VP candidate to see if it was worth running in 2016. based on reports, Warren liked the idea but was still skeptical since Hillary effectively had the moderate/centrist vote on lockdown, leaving Biden with a very difficult path to even winning the nomination to begin with. Even when Hillary was campaigning people thought Warren should VP for her, since it would supposedly unite the moderates and progressives in the Dem party behind one ticket.... Warren liked THAT idea too because she figured it would give her some leverage in pulling Hillary more to the left on certain issues in order to secure her agreement to be VP.
Biden values Warren, and Warren could strategically pull Biden to the left on certain issues if she was VP while also uniting the party behind one ticket to beat Trump.
Thats not the case with Sanders though. If Sanders was the nominee and Warren his VP, then she doesnt get to have much of a say at all. Sanders as the face of the progressive movement would be able to go with whichever policy or agenda he feels is right since voters have made him the representative of the progressive faction in the first place. Sure, Warren would likely agree with Bernie's policies more regularly than Biden, but thats assuming that they get to the White House in the first place. Preaching purely to the left wing faction of the base to drive out fanatical levels of support is what Bernie is basing his entire argument that he can beat Trump on. Thats a very risky strategy that could very well fall short considering how conservative many swing states in the country are and will be..... Biden's strategy on the other hand would be to appeal to centrist and moderate voters more easily swayed away from Trump while Warren becomes the advocate for the progressive faction in an administration, which has better odds of succeeding just from the nature of politics in America.
To summarize, Warren might endorse Biden over Bernie even though Bernie is ideologically closer to her.
1 - Warren went strategy over ideology in 2016 by endorsing Hillary over Bernie
2 - Her political future as of right now appears to have hit its ceiling thanks predominantly to Bernie
3 - Warren and Bernie have not gotten along recently in the campaign
4 - If Warren's biggest goal is to defeat Trump, Warren may again put strategy over Ideology and endorse Biden over Sanders in 2020
5 - Warren would have more of a voice and boost chances of winning as Biden's VP compared to being Sanders' VP