Democratic Primary will effectively be over by March 17th

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  • Imabench
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    Now that Super Tuesday is over and Biden has jumped to the front of the race (Delegate count is 566, Bernie is at 501, all others at 128 combined) the next batch of states hold key influence in deciding who becomes the nominee. The following states will hold primaries between now and March 17th:

    Michigan (125)
    Missouri (68)
    Washington (89)
    Arizona (67)
    Florida (219)
    Illinois (155)
    Ohio (136)

    Other states will also vote, but the 7 listed above are the only ones where more than 50 delegates each are up for grabs, meaning that they are the states that actually matter..... These 7 states combined have about 860 delegates up for grabs.... Not as much as the 1357 delegates that were available on Super Tuesday, but its the next closest thing and is still gigantic in size and scope. 

    Michigan: Biden leads Sanders 29%-23%, but Bloomberg who has dropped out and endorsed Biden held 11% in recent days, which mostly will add to Biden's numbers. Warren hovering south of 7% so even if she drops out and endorses Bernie, Michigan is leaning Biden https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-6835.html

    Missouri: Only available polling back in late January had Biden at 39%, Bloomberg at 14%, Warren at 9%, and Sanders at 7% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mo/missouri_democratic_primary-6930.html Given Bloombergs endorsement of Biden and the shockingly low numbers from Warren and Bernie in the state as of now, one can conclude that Missouri is leaning heavily toward Biden

    Washington: Bernie does really well in the western states so a win here normally would sound expected. Last polls showed Bernie at 21% while Biden was closer to 10%, but Bloomberg had 15% in the state and has withdrawn. If Biden keeps up the momentum from the conquest of Super Tuesday, he may be able to snatch the state away from Sanders. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wa/washington_democratic_primary-7005.html Admittedly, Sanders THRASHED Hillary in Washington in 2016 (71% to 27%) so Bernie still has to be considered the frontrunner in the state regardless of how much of a boost Biden has going into the state. 

    ArizonaLast polls to come out of Arizona were back in fucking November so we are flying blind here. In 2016 though Hillary won the state with a healthy margin of 56% to 41% over Bernie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Late_March_and_early_April so if we follow the pattern that Biden will do well in states Hillary did well in then he could probably clinch Arizona. 

    Florida: This will be an ass whipping. Biden had 34% of the vote just a week ago while Sanders only had 13%. Bloomberg, at 25% support, now out of the picture will almost certainly add most of that to Bidens count by the time the primary rolls around. Biden will win this state, easily, the question is now will Sanders do shitty enough to not even hit the 15% threshhold in the state. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-6847.html

    Illinois: This is a state with a lot in common with Washington in terms of how it can go. Sanders leads with 22%, but Bloomberg was at 17% while Biden was at 14%. If Biden absorbs much of Bloombergs base following his exit from the campaign, Biden could situate himself to win the state. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/il/illinois_democratic_primary-7036.html A look back at 2016 showed Hillary eeking out a win here 50% to 49%, Bernies odds of winning this state are better than his odds at winning others

    Ohio: The last big state up for grabs before late March is Ohio, which has only seen one poll cover the state since October https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/2020-great-lakes-poll-full-FINAL.pdf Scroll to page 12 and you see that most Ohio voters would choose Biden first with 32% of the vote, while Sanders was down near 21%. In 2016 Hillary carried the state 57% to 43%, so its forseeabe that Biden will get a win here. 


    Of these 7 massive states, Bernie has decent odds of winning just two of them: Illinois and Washington, and thats only under the massive assumption that Biden doesnt absorb the base Bloomberg has recently forfeited....

    Biden on the other hand will almost certainly win Florida and Missouri, and has decent odds of also carrying Ohio and Michigan. 

    The biggest tossups at the moment are Arizona (due to the complete lack of polling) and Illinois (looking tight) Since both candidates will likely get at least 15% in those states though any win by a razor thin margin will not provide much wiggle room for one candidate to pull away from another, since other smaller states such as Mississippi, Idaho, or even North Dakota could erode any gains made by one side. 

    If Bernie cant turn his campaign around and become more competitive in other states, then the states that will vote some time over the next two weeks will effectively hand Biden the nomination, due to their size, delegate count, and polling that seems to favor Biden who has just come off of a massive Super Tuesday win + consolidation of the moderate vote behind him. 



  • n8nrgmi
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    --> @Imabench
    thanks for the salient political analysis
  • ethang5
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    --> @Imabench
    If all of this is true, why are so many democrats worried about a contested convention?
  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Imabench
    Illinois is going Bernie. As someone from Illinois, we will be way more progressive. I will be casting my ballot for Biden. I think it will be close, but Bernie will pull away
  • ethang5
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    --> @SupaDudz
    Are you a democrat?
  • SupaDudz
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    Republican, but I am surrounded by Dems
  • Imabench
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    --> @ethang5
    If all of this is true, why are so many democrats worried about a contested convention?
    Democrats were worried about a contested convention prior to this point because of the candidates who were still in the race.... Bloomberg with his unlimited finances could buy votes all the way up to the convention if he wanted to commit to it, Klobuchar showed flashes of potential after finishing 3rd in NH, Buttigieg won Iowa and had long been a fundraising king of the candidates still running, Biden revamped his campaign with a win in SC, all while Warren and Bernie were still fighting over the progressive vote. 

    Ever since SC though the fear of a contested convention have plummeted because candidates started giving up...... Buttigieg dropped out to later endorse Biden, Klobuchar followed suit, leaving the field down to four. Then after Super Tuesday where Biden pulled out some surprise wins and swept the south, Bloomberg backed out and endorsed Biden, making it three and uniting the moderate base behind Biden...... With Warren doing poorly and Bernie the only other candidate who has won a race, it is now effectively down to a 2 person race when not even a week ago there were 6 who had a respectable shot.

    Since everyone other than Sanders and Biden only have 140 delegates locked don of like 3,700 up for grabs, the odds of a contested convention happening between two main candidates is not effectively zero thanks to the events of this week. 


  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Imabench
    Sanders also does not have the support of MSM, and Trump's rally crowds consistently choose Bernie as the weaker choice between Joe and Bernie. It's really unlikely with all the consolidated support behind Biden that Bernie S. can pull this off.
  • fauxlaw
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    Regardless of what happens in March, July is the tale of the tape, and brokered is the inevitable end of both Biden and Bernie. Happened in 1952 to Estes Kefauver, who had a deciding primary season victory and the nomination sewn up. Who was Estes Kefauver? I rest my case.
  • Imabench
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    Update on a few states now that more polls have come out 

    Michigan is now squarely in Biden's camp, new polls has him up by 6 over Bernie (29% to 23%) Poll still included Bloomberg as a candidate at 11%. Assuming most of his support transfers to Biden, he'll have a solid lead in Michigan which votes in just 4 days. 

    Missouri on the other hand has swung far back toward Bernie, current polling has him trailing Biden by only 4 points (48-44). Fuck knows how this big of a swing took place but Missouri is far from safe Biden-territory as previously believed

    Florida has somehow grown far more in Biden's favors then last time. He is up 61% to 12% over Sanders, and this poll had Bloomberg at 14% which would give Biden an ABSURD margin of victory in the gigantic state. 




  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Imabench

    Florida has somehow grown far more in Biden's favors then last time. He is up 61% to 12% over Sanders, and this poll had Bloomberg at 14% which would give Biden an ABSURD margin of victory in the gigantic state. 

    I'd be surprised if Sander's Castro comments allowed him any support in Florida.
  • Imabench
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    --> @Greyparrot
    He pulled some similar shit last time in 2016 as well and ended up losing the state to Hillary 64% to 33%.

    The fact he didnt learn to keep his mouth shut yet again is a testament to how stubborn and unstrategic he could be
  • bmdrocks21
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    --> @Imabench
    Honestly, someone should just ask him his opinion of Hitler and it would be game over. 

    "I think it is unfair to say everything Hitler did was wrong. The Autobahn was great!" 
  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Imabench
    Sanders is +5 spread according to SIU. Buttigeg and Bloomberg are 2nd and 4th in the state. Huge additions to threw weight. I know Dems in my state that were for Buttigeg and Bloomberg flip to Biden. Waiting to see the poll, but Illinois will be a really close race. Still think Sanders wins, just by history and Chicago sadly being more progressive, with the election of JB Pritzker and the Dems slowly getting more traction in the state versus the Republican wave in 2015
  • SupaDudz
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    Washington Poll: 

    Who do you trust to lead in a major crisis:

    46% Biden
    27% Sanders

    BIG POLL
  • SupaDudz
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    Washington is tied at 32.7%. If he genuinely loses Washington, it's game over
  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Imabench
    Recent poll by Ogden suggests that Biden defeats Sanders in Illinois. GG for Bernie if this is the case and a huge L for him. He won't come back if he loses Illinois
  • Imabench
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    --> @SupaDudz
    Washington is tied at 32.7%. If he genuinely loses Washington, it's game over

    The fact that Washington is even close is horrible for Bernie since the west coast was supposed to be his firing wall. If he cant win in the West Coast then there isnt any place else he will have better odds since the South clearly belongs to Biden, the midwest is also not within his grip, and the NE is too depopulated to rely on to carry him to the nomination.

    A big win for Biden in Michigan really knocked Bernie on his ass tonight, if he loses in Florida and Ohio and Illinois on the 17th then he will be completely and utterly fucked


  • TheRealNihilist
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    --> @Imabench
    How can Bernie win?

    I don't see a chance. 
  • Imabench
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    Theres only two ways Bernie can win

    1) Biden drops dead

    2) Bernie somehow pulls off massive come-from-behind wins in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Arizona one week from now


  • TheRealNihilist
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    Drops dead seems like the more likely option. 

    I think the Bernie shills really overestimated their "grassroots" support.
  • Imabench
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    --> @TheRealNihilist

    I think the Bernie shills really overestimated their "grassroots" support.

    There is a question of what percentage of Bernies support in 2016 were from people who believed in his message and policies and what percentage were supporters who just really didnt like Hillary Clinton..... Bernie has for the most part not changed a single thing about his campaign in 2020 than the one he ran in 2016, but he is dropping the ball all over the place now that he has another 1v1 vs Biden. 


  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Imabench
    77% in

    35% Biden
    33.2% Bernie

    Is this the end for Bernie?
  • ethang5
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    It's the 17th, and again, you called it.
  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Imabench
    Biden destroys Sanders in Illinois. This race is effectively over. Old people went out to vote while young people self quarantined and didn’t show up. It’s done for Bernie