Michigan can show if media outlets finally figured out how to poll correctly.

Author: Imabench ,

Topic's posts

Posts in total: 4
  • Imabench
    Imabench avatar
    Debates: 6
    Forum posts: 922
    3
    4
    9
    Imabench avatar
    Imabench
    Ill keep this brief cause im tired as fuck 

    2016, as we all know, became known for the inaccuracy of polls conducted by numerous outlets. Hillary had leads in multiple states right up to election day and then lost nearly every state that was even marginally close, sometimes with final results being almost 8 full points different than what was predicted by polls leading up to election day. 

    One of the biggest ones to miss the mark was Michigan. 


    In the 2016 Dem primary, Hillary vs Bernie, 7 polls in the month of March taken before Michigan went out to vote had Hillary ahead of Bernie by an average of 57% to 37%..... When the results came in though, Bernie ended up pulling out a win, 50% to 48%, in a dramatic almost 10 point turnaround. Since Michigan was the biggest state to be won that day, the surprise win bought Bernie a new lease on life campaign wise and allowed him to stay in the race much longer than before. 

    Today, Bidens lead in the state is nearly exactly the same as what was predicted for Hillary 4 years ago, 


    With an average lead of 58% to 33%, which is damn near identical to what happened in 2016, Biden is projected to cruise to victory in the state. The state primary takes place tomorrow, and it remains to be seen if polling outlets adjusted from their missed forecasts last cycle and will hit the mark this time around, or if they evidently learned nothing and are as unreliable as ever. 

    A surprise Sanders victory could indicate we're still as blind as ever in seeing which candidates are actually doing well. A Biden victory though by numbers being projected would indicate that polling outlets finally got their shit together, and that going into the general election 2020 will not have as much mystery to it. 
  • Discipulus_Didicit
    Discipulus_Didicit avatar
    Debates: 9
    Forum posts: 4,040
    3
    4
    10
    Discipulus_Didicit avatar
    Discipulus_Didicit
    People are still calling Hillary's loss a surprise four years later? That is fucking hilarious.

    That said I am not sure that Bernie can take it again this year. It is really too close to call and I wouldn't put money on him winning or losing Michigan this time around. I would however put money on him getting a lot more than "33%" of the vote.
  • Greyparrot
    Greyparrot avatar
    Debates: 2
    Forum posts: 8,865
    3
    3
    8
    Greyparrot avatar
    Greyparrot
    --> @Imabench
    It wasn't too far off.
  • Imabench
    Imabench avatar
    Debates: 6
    Forum posts: 922
    3
    4
    9
    Imabench avatar
    Imabench
    --> @Greyparrot
    It wasn't too far off.
    Im surprised it was this spot on this time around..... RCP had it 55.7% to 33.3% in favor of Biden, the current vote tally is 52.9% to 36.6% 

    While not perfect, a 3 point miss is way the hell closer than the 10 point miss in 2016