Bernie will be statistically fucked on May 5th

Author: Imabench ,

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  • Imabench
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    Thanks to the suspension of future primaries until later dates + finalized totals from states that already voted but were taking their sweet fuckin time allocating delegates, we not have a super accurate standing for both Biden and Bernie in terms of delegate math and can play around with scenarios for future states. Lets dive into this

    Total number of delegates = 3,979
    Total needed to win = 1,991

    Total already given out = 2,302

    Biden = 1,217
    Bernie = 914
    Others = 171 combined 

    Total still up for grabs = 1,677

    Bernie needs 1,077 delegates to clinch the nomination, 64% of all that remain 
    Biden needs 774 delegates to clinch the nomination, 46% of all that remain 

    (The totals add up to 110% because of the chunk of delegates that were won by other candidates before they dropped out) 

    =========================================================================================================

    Now that we have the numbers set up, we can start diving into future primaries to sort of paint the picture of how things play out. 

    OHIO = 136 

    Ohio was supposed to have a primary back on the 15th but moved theirs to June 2nd. Multiple polls in that state taken before the primary was supposed to take place had Biden leading Bernie by a vote of 57.5% to 35.0%

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-6873.html

    If those numbers hold by the time Ohio does vote, Biden would get about 78 delegates, Bernie would get approximately 58 

    Biden = 1,295
    Bernie = 972 

    ===========================

    GEORGIA = 105 

    Georgia is a deep southern state which is an area that Biden does very well in, so its no surprise that the one poll held for the state had Biden leading Bernie 66% to 22% (11% undecided according to the poll) 


    If we stick to just the 66%-22% that does have a preference for right now, Biden would get about 69 delegates, Bernie would get about 23 delegates 

    Biden = 1,364
    Bernie = 995 

    (The undecided 11% comes out to about 13 delegates left over) Considering Biden's advantage in southern states, lets give him 7 and Bernie 6 

    Biden = 1,371
    Bernie = 1,001

    ===========================

    PUERTO RICO = 51

    538 has Biden's support in the state at 58% while Bernie is closer to 35% Bloomberg is expected to get 2% thanks to early write-ins but that will be disqualified for not meeting the threshhold to win delegates, with the other 5% undecided 



    If we stick with the 58-35 numbers again, Biden would get 30 delegates, Bernie would get 18. The other 3 that would be left over we can give Biden 2-1 so it would be Biden + 33 and then Bernie + 19 

    Biden = 1,404
    Bernie = 1,020

    ==========================

    ALASKA = 15 
    HAWAII = 24 

    Alaska is pretty close with Biden up over Bernie 53-47%
    Hawaii is also close with Biden up over Bernie 56-44%


    Because both states are small and pretty close to near even in polling, we can do some quick maths and split delegates almost evenly with Biden getting a slight advantage.... Biden + 8, + 13..... Bernie + 7, + 11..... 

    Biden = 1,425 
    Bernie = 1,038 

    ================================

    LOUISIANA = 54 

    Biden has a massive lead in this state, 76% to 20%, which makes sense given its a southern state with a massive African American base who Biden does very well with. 

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/louisiana/

    If we follow the numbers Biden would get 41, Bernie would get 11

    Biden = 1,466
    Bernie = 1,049 

    ================================

    Wyoming is so utterly irrelevant with 14 delegates that with Biden leading 58-42, Ill just split it 8-6 to both candidates since its not worth the analysis 

    Biden = 1,474
    Bernie = 1,064

    ================================

    WISCONSIN = 84 

    Biden leads the state 56% to 42% 

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/wisconsin/

    If the numbers hold, Biden would get 47 delegates, Bernie would get 35 

    Biden = 1,521 
    Bernie = 1,099 

    =================================

    Let me pause right here to go over a few things. 

    Biden = 1,521
    Bernie = 1,099
    Others = 171

    Total won so far = 2,791 
    Remaining = 1,190 
    Needed to win = 1,991 

    After Wisconsin votes on April 7th, Bernie will be 892 votes short of winning the nomination, which of the 1,190 remaining means at this point he would need to win all remaining states by 75%. Thats about on par with what he has to do right now

    Biden, at 1,521, needs only 470 more delegates to win the nomination.

    After Wisconsin votes, the next primary vote take place on April 28th where 6 states cast votes: 

    Delaware = 21 delegates 
    Rhode Island = 26 delegates 
    Connecticut = 60 delegates 
    Maryland = 96 delegates 
    Pennsylvania = 186 delegates 
    New York = 274 delegates 

    Total delegates up for grabs = 663 ...... This is is where Biden pulls into the range of winning the nomination 

    If we look at polls of the 3 biggest states, MD, PA, NY: 

    Biden leads in New York 56 to 26........ 56% of 274 is 153 delegates 
    Biden leads Pennsylvania 68 to 30...... 68% of 186 is 126 delegates 
    Biden leads Maryland 70 to 29............ 70% of 96 is 67 delegates 

    From those three states alone, Biden would get 346 delegates, Which is 124 short of the nomination.... The 3 remaining states combined only have 107 delegates remaining, meaning that Biden will not be able to win the nomination when these states all vote on April 7th. 

    If Biden gets about 60 of the other 107 delegates from the smaller states, he still needs about 64 more to finally win 

    Kansas and Guam after that have about 46 votes 

    And then there is Indiana: 82 delegates 








  • Imabench
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    TL;DR VERSION: 

    If polling goes the way it has been going, Biden will be within 100 delegates of winning the nomination after multiple states vote on April 28th.... After that, the next biggest state that votes that could put Biden over the top will be Indiana, which votes on May 5th and has 82 delegates up for grabs. 

    Therefore, if all goes as predicted, Mike Pence's home state of Indiana will be the one to statistically fuck Bernie out of the nomination and hand Biden the outright victory, assuming Bernie doesnt do something sensible like withdrawing before then
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Imabench
    TL;DR version, we're all fucked and Trump is getting a second term because Joe Biden is a dumpster fire of a candidate. 

  • SupaDudz
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    I would like to thank the African American community for showing up in the primaries to take out the dangerous candidate in Bernie Sanders who would destroy our countries small business with crippling tax. At least Biden knows how to run a country properly

  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @SupaDudz
    At least Biden knows how to run a country properly
    lol by passing laws to destroy the middle class and lock up poor people. Oh yes, he knows how to run a country so the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. At least he used to. I'm not sure he even knows what state he is in these days, let alone how to run a country. 


  • SupaDudz
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    That's literally Bernie Sanders. Sanders will destroy all the middle class with taxes and put them in large sums of debt. Let's destroy the middle class and give it all to the South Side of Chicago where mass killings happen. That will fix America won't it?


    And good thing so now Trump will be president and the middle class can be saved instead of being screwed by hypocrites
  • SupaDudz
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    Bernie bros have been attacking Whoopi Goldberg with terrible racist and sexist terms. The tolerant left of the Bernie bros really showing itself. Bernie should be in the Senate fighting Covid, not spreading his communist agenda to the election, just proves how selfish he really is. Man owns 3 houses and claims the elite are controlling the USA when he is part of the elite
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @SupaDudz
    That's literally Bernie Sanders. Sanders will destroy all the middle class with taxes and put them in large sums of debt. 
    that is the exact opposite of Bernie Sanders' plan. The current system crushes the middle class by corporate greed. Hundreds of thousands of people per year declare bankruptcy because of medical bills. If bernie sanders' plans were realized that number would be pretty much 0. No one would need to sink themselves is 10's or hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt in order to get an education. Sanders' plans would save the middle class

    And good thing so now Trump will be president and the middle class can be saved instead of being screwed by hypocrites
    but things aren't getting better for the middle class. They are getting worse. Predatory companies are squeezing the life out of people while trump and the other billionaires sit back and collect all the money. He is running the economy into the ground.

    Bernie bros have been attacking Whoopi Goldberg with terrible racist and sexist terms. The tolerant left of the Bernie bros really showing itself. 
    the bernie bro is a common misconception. It isn't a real thing. Bernie has alot of supporters and they are very passionate. Some of them are abusive online. But there are abusive people online about literally every topic. You can find people being abusive over my little pony. So pretending like people being jerks online is, in any way, unique or different for bernie sanders' campaign is a lie intended to discredit people who are trying to help people instead of sell out to the rich. 

     Bernie should be in the Senate fighting Covid, not spreading his communist agenda to the election
    lol nothing about his plan is communist. 

     just proves how selfish he really is
    yes, because spending your entire life fighting for the working class and the poor is selfishness.... 

    Man owns 3 houses and claims the elite are controlling the USA when he is part of the elite
    The man has worked his whole life to own 2 homes and a cottage. I have no idea why you think that somehow undermines his credibility in any way at all. He has fought for the poor and working class of this country his whole life, while republicans have spent their whole lives selling out to the rich and screwing over the poor at every opportunity. 
  • ethang5
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    *They said Trump couldn't win. He did.
    *They said they'd move to Canada if he did. They didn't.
    *They said there would be race wars if Trump won. There weren't.
    *They said the stock market would crash if Trump won. It didn't.
    *They said unemployment would rise if Trump won. It didn't.
    *They said the economy would tank if Trump won. It didn't.
    *They said the middle class would shrink if Trump won. It didn't.
    *They said manufacturing jobs would not return if Trump won. They did.
    *They said we'd be in a war if Trump won. We weren't.
    *They said abortions would become illegal if Trump won. It didn't.

    Now they're saying..

    we're all fucked and Trump is getting a second term 

    *They say we're all fucked if Trump gets a second term.

    What has history shown us about their prognostications?
  • ethang5
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    --> @Imabench
    You are again, spot on. But these are calculations Sanders and his team know. So what is keeping him in?

    A spot on the ticket?
    A sweet ambassadorship?
    Sticking it to the DNC?
    A delusion he can still win?
    Power to pick some Cabernet officers?

    What?
  • fauxlaw
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    The real question isn't either Biden or Bernie, even if either them convince the Party that they deserve the nomination. Once the DNC holds in convention in Milwaukee, the party won't much care who has what delegate count. It will be either a brokered convention similar to 1952 when Estes Kefauver had the primaries sewn up, but the Party hated the idea of a Kefauver presidency. They nominated Adlai Stevenson, the then current UN Ambassador, who did not even seek the job and ran no primary campaign. He, of course, lost to Eisenhower. This looks like the exact same scenario. It's either brokered, or Bernie's, or more likely Biden's VP choice will be brokered, not a candidate choice. After all, neither candidate is likely to survive a full, single term, either by incapacity health-wise, by by action of the 25A, so the VP is a critical factor for which the Party will assume control.
  • Imabench
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    --> @ethang5
    So what is keeping him in?
    <br>
    My guess is incredible selfishness on Bernie's part based on 3 pieces of evidence: 

    1) He desperately wants power.... In 2016 towards the end of the Dem Primary, Hillary had received around two and a half million more votes than Bernie had, and statistically had enough delegates to become the nominee well before then. Despite the fact that Hillary received more votes from people, and despite the fact that Hillary won the nomination on June 6-7, Sanders continued campaigning and tried to lobby superdelegates to vote for him even though Hillary at this point had won millions of more voters than him....... Do you know how undemocratic you have to be to try to ask for the nomination to be given to you when votes clearly favor another candidate by millions of people? Bernie tried doing that for at least a week, even AFTER the contest was technically over, before finally pulling out of the race. 

    2) He's stubborn and has been made more stubborn thanks to his position...... Twice now Bernie has become the posterchild of the progressive left-wing faction of the entire Dem party. Whenever a politician becomes the representative of an entire faction of a political bloc, they become damn near impossible to work with or reason with because they have to represent the values they stand for.... GOP equivalents of this would be Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. One represents the ultra religious and ultra conservative faction of the party, the other represents the more libertarian faction of the party. Both of them are notorious in Congress for being uncompromising and authoring bills they no will fail just to prove a point to their own followers, and thats because they have been anointed as the posterchildren of different factions of the GOP base. Bernie is in a similar position but with the Dem base, so he has become more stubborn in giving up no ground as a result. 

    3) He's an opportunist...... With the current pandemic gripping the country, Bernie sees this less as a historic problem that unites people to try to work together to defeat this, and more as an opportunity to push his own agenda to try to convince people to flip votes to his side.... "ThIs WoUlDnT bE aS bAd If We HaD MeDiCaRe FoR aLl Or FrEe HeAlThCaRe!" Has become a pretty big rallying cry among Sanders supporters ever since the pandemic came to the US, yet they conveniently ignore how Spain and Italy have similar healthcare systems and are being fucking RAVAGED by the disease. Covid-19 has become the biggest concern among Americans, Bernie wants to try to use the disease to reinvigorate his dead campaign because the opportunity is there. 
  • ethang5
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    --> @Imabench
    So what is keeping him in?

    My guess is incredible selfishness on Bernie's part based on 3 pieces of evidence: 
    OK, wow! I didn't expect that.

    I was sure you were a Sanders supporter. You sound instead like a Bernie hater.
  • Imabench
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    --> @ethang5
    I was sure you were a Sanders supporter. You sound instead like a Bernie hater.

    Im squarely in the moderate/centrist Dem faction. So while I lean left, I supported Hillary over Bernie in 2016, and then supported Biden and to some degree Klobuchar over Bernie and Warren in 2020. 

    The biggest issues I have with Warren and Sanders is the impossibility that the platforms they campaign on could ever be implemented. While they might have some moral reasons to substantiate some of their policy beliefs, theres no way in fuck that if they ever won the presidency they could actually pas Universal Healthcare or Free College Tuition. Their blatant denial of this reality in my eyes would make them do-nothing presidents that accomplish little to anything outside of foreign policy, and so I couldnt find it to support either of them since their campaigns are built entirely around unattainable dreams. 

    If it was Sanders vs Trump in 2016 I would have stayed home  
  • ethang5
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    --> @Imabench
    OK. Makes sense.

    What are your principle gripes with Trump? Is it morality personality? Because it certainly cannot be policy/economics.
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Imabench
    My guess is incredible selfishness on Bernie's part based on 3 pieces of evidence: 
    You appear to be misreading all three pieces of information though. 

    1) He desperately wants power.... In 2016 towards the end of the Dem Primary
    in 2016 he stayed in to force her to make concessions to actually do things to try to appeal to the left. Once she made those concessions he campaigned hard for her. It wasn't him looking for power. It wasn't him trying to hurt hilary. It was him trying to get a win for the people of america. 

    2) He's stubborn and has been made more stubborn thanks to his position...... Twice now Bernie has become the posterchild of the progressive left-wing faction of the entire Dem party.
    of course he is stubborn. The democratic party has been completely ignoring the left for decades. They assume the left will vote for them because the alternative is worse. So both parties ignore them and shift right. Under those conditions, being stubborn is an absolute requirement. 

    3) He's an opportunist...... With the current pandemic gripping the country, Bernie sees this less as a historic problem that unites people to try to work together to defeat this
    this is a complete misreading. Sanders has done nothing to attack Biden. Almost all of his energy lately has been to spread awareness and fundraise for COVID causes. He has done 10 times more to help with this crisis than biden has. You want to frame this as everyone should line up and unify behind biden. But he has no plan, and even if he did he couldn't get it out in a coherent way. 
  • SupaDudz
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    That's literally Bernie Sanders. Sanders will destroy all the middle class with taxes and put them in large sums of debt. 
    that is the exact opposite of Bernie Sanders' plan. The current system crushes the middle class by corporate greed. Hundreds of thousands of people per year declare bankruptcy because of medical bills. If bernie sanders' plans were realized that number would be pretty much 0. No one would need to sink themselves is 10's or hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt in order to get an education. Sanders' plans would save the middle class
    Business has increased with the middle class. Small businesses have been making money with the increased stocks. The funding for free healthcare will come out of the pocket of millions of small business. Once that is done, they cut our military spending in half, so that a hostile country like Iran attacks the country, we will be ill prepared due to the small military we have at the moment

    And good thing so now Trump will be president and the middle class can be saved instead of being screwed by hypocrites
    but things aren't getting better for the middle class. They are getting worse. Predatory companies are squeezing the life out of people while trump and the other billionaires sit back and collect all the money. He is running the economy into the ground.
    The stock right now is bad due to the Coronavirus, but before then the middle class was prospering. Stock that I invested money into turned into lots of money of which I deposited. People were making money and business was going well. The economy was the best the nation had seen and the unemployment rate was falling. You see the decrease now because of the Coronavirus, but when Corona-magedon stops, then the economy will bounce back even higher. This isn't a crash that we aren't ready for. We have the plan in place to make this work

    Bernie bros have been attacking Whoopi Goldberg with terrible racist and sexist terms. The tolerant left of the Bernie bros really showing itself. 
    the bernie bro is a common misconception. It isn't a real thing. Bernie has alot of supporters and they are very passionate. Some of them are abusive online. But there are abusive people online about literally every topic. You can find people being abusive over my little pony. So pretending like people being jerks online is, in any way, unique or different for bernie sanders' campaign is a lie intended to discredit people who are trying to help people instead of sell out to the rich. 
    Bernie Bro's are the most vocal, and the most vocal get the most attacks, hence why Trump is always targeted because he is vocal. The more vocal you are, the more attention you draw

     Bernie should be in the Senate fighting Covid, not spreading his communist agenda to the election
    lol nothing about his plan is communist. 
    Free healthcare
    College for all
    Get rid of the private sector
    National govt controls everything
    The only thing non communist is the one party state

     just proves how selfish he really is
    yes, because spending your entire life fighting for the working class and the poor is selfishness.... 
    Stalin did the same thing along with Mao Zedong. Look what happened

    Man owns 3 houses and claims the elite are controlling the USA when he is part of the elite
    The man has worked his whole life to own 2 homes and a cottage. I have no idea why you think that somehow undermines his credibility in any way at all. He has fought for the poor and working class of this country his whole life, while republicans have spent their whole lives selling out to the rich and screwing over the poor at every opportunity. 
    *GASP* He owns a house he doesn't need in a COTTAGE? WOW! This is elitism! If he believes that he should fight for the working people, then he should sell that house and have it given to a family who needs it

    You see the hypocrisy. I have no problem with him owning a 3rd house, it's just hypocritical of him to do so
  • Imabench
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    --> @ethang5
    Its a little bit of all of them. 

    Morality wise Trump has made several slip ups that showed his true colors. Every press conference if a reporter asks a question he doesnt like he either attacks the reporter directly, the news network they work for, or sometimes both rather then explain why the question is bullshit, even if the question is normal and on-par for the situation....... When dealing with other world leaders there are countries we are allied with who Trump will start a spat with over the most minor issues, which is dangerous during a time when Russia and China are actively trying to increase their alliances.... There's a bunch of other little thingshe does that by themselves are not necessarily deal-breaking (I could not give less of a shit when early in his presidency he tried to push the idea his Inauguration crowds were bigger than Obama's) but the sheer number of them collectively is an issue. 

    Economics wise his massive tax cut for the wealthy meant to 'spur job creation' was wall-to-wall horse shit. All that extra money went straight into people's pocketbooks or were spent on stock-buybacks rather then any type of job growth, and the idea that tax breaks for the rich create jobs is an asinine concept that needs to die.... Eliminating things in the tax code because the loophole or tax was illogical is one thing that im fine with, but just handing massive amounts of money to rich people and to corporations is just nonsensical. 

    Policy wise there hasnt really been much passed because of the gridlock that is Congress, but the trade war/tariffs with China highlights an issue.... Tariffs against China and other nations that try to undermine the laws is a tool that can be used correctly, but the issue with what Trump is doing is that he is so inconsistent with it and doesnt plan out in advance an overall trade strategy.... For example the blanket 25% tax on imported steel made everything that was made out of steel rise in price, and then retaliatory tariffs by those countries hit agricultural products the most so farmers started losing tons of income they barely had in the first place. Those who made steel profited, but those that relied on steel suffered as well as farmers who export most of their crops overseas, so the trade war over steel has ultimately hurt US manufacturing and agriculture far more than it helped..... 

    ^ Renegotiating NAFTA into the USMCA on the other hand was a good move, where Mexico and Canada who are largely dependent on US exports were able to play by more fair rules in concessions to the US without the US having to give up too much in response. That was a good example of how tariffs can be used in favor of the US, while other larger issues like trade relations with China have been mismanaged badly. 
  • Imabench
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    "in 2016 he stayed in to force her to make concessions to actually do things to try to appeal to the left. Once she made those concessions he campaigned hard for her"
    She made like one concession about free college tuition and then hardly brought it up on the campaign trail afterwards. The truth is that Bernie shamelessly tried to plead to superdelegates to support him over Hillary, after initially starting out the campaign decrying the power Superdelegates had in the first place, and he flipped his script to currying their favor after it became clear that the majority of actual people supported Hillary over Bernie. Once all time was exhausted, the so called policy-shift on Hillary's part was made just to save face, both among Hillary supporters to the liberal left, and among Sanders to his own base as well to make it seem like something had been accomplished. 


    Under those conditions, being stubborn is an absolute requirement. 

    Opinion and a Concession to the original argument. 


    He has done 10 times more to help with this crisis than biden has. You want to frame this as everyone should line up and unify behind biden. But he has no plan, and even if he did he couldn't get it out in a coherent way. 

    Opinion and also Incorrect. Biden has released a plan for Covid 19 https://joebiden.com/covid19/ 
  • Imabench
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    --> @SupaDudz
    If a hostile country like Iran attacks the country, we will be ill prepared due to the small military we have at the moment
    Lets pause for a minute and remember that the US spends more money on the military than the 2nd to 7th most powerful nations COMBINED: 


    If you want to compare the US to Iran directly, Iran spends about $14 billion AT MOST for its military whereas the US spends $650 billion on AVERAGE 

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

    If Iran is actually stupid enough to declare war on the US, it would be pretty one sided, and if they somehow manage to beat the US military while spending 46 and a half times less on their military than we do, then frankly we deserve to lose. 

  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Imabench
    Fair enough... maybe not Iran, but China or Russia
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Imabench
    She made like one concession about free college tuition and then hardly brought it up on the campaign trail afterwards. 
    true, she was a truly terrible candidate that hard a hard time even pretending like she gives a shit about average Americans. 

    The truth is that Bernie shamelessly tried to plead to superdelegates to support him over Hillary, after initially starting out the campaign decrying the power Superdelegates had in the first place, and he flipped his script to currying their favor after it became clear that the majority of actual people supported Hillary over Bernie.
    Bernie campaigned hard to abolish super delegates entirely. Hilary's team insisted on keeping them. Why is it shameless to try to use a tool that your corrupt opponent insisted on keeping?

    Under those conditions, being stubborn is an absolute requirement. 
    Opinion and a Concession to the original argument. 
    fair enough. I concede that he, like most people, can be stubborn. However as this is a virtue, not a failing, it still doesn't really support your argument. 

    Opinion and also Incorrect. Biden has released a plan for Covid 19 https://joebiden.com/covid19/ 
    lol, so some paid staffers wrote out points that biden is completely incapable of getting across to people. The fact that his team has done the work for him and he can't even manage to read it in a way that looks like he knows what he is talking about is even more damning.