Trump at risk of losing reelection because of his own retarded supporters

Author: Imabench ,

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  • Imabench
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    The Coronavirus, once it really took hold in the US, gave Trump the best opportunity to secure reelection.... Nothing else before matters now, because we've never seen anything like this , certainly not in our lifetimes. His affinity for Russia doesnt matter, his haphazard feud with China doesnt matter, his alienation of Euro allies doesnt matter, not even the Ukraine story matters anymore. The number one issue that historically has decided if a president gets another term is economic performance, which the Coronavirus absolutely put on life support. 

    But here's the thing: When the Coronavirus put the economy on lockdown, it made the response to eliminating the coronavirus the single most important issue in America. Success would be curtailing the virus and reopening the economy, Defeat would be fucking it up and causing lots of deaths while the economy sputters. Trumps entire struggle of winning re-election has been effectively reduced to a test where there is only 1 question and the two answers that can be picked are basically true/false. For one option, practice social distancing and have states issue stay-at-home orders to limit the spread of the virus hard. The other option, fuck about and risk letting the virus spread further and faster just so things can stay sort of normal. 

    Despite the easy decision, Trumps's supporters are actively fucking Trump out of being able to select the correct choice, risking his chances of being able to win reelection. 

    Support for Stay-At-Home orders is very high across the country. 81% support a NATIONAL stay at home order while only 17% do not:

    68% of Republicans also SUPPORT a national stay at home order according to the same poll (Independents 80%, Dems 95%) Voters across all political ideologies are giving the administration a free pass to shut down the economy in order to defeat the virus. The President's own party, the GOP, favor shutting down everything just to defeat the virus, at 2 to 1 support as well!!!

    Only the dumbest faction of the GOP are against the idea of a national stay-at-home order, yet they're the ones who are pushing governors to reopen the country. Because they thing shutting down the economy makes Trump look bad, or because they believe some dipshit conspiracy theory that the coronavirus is not meant to be taken seriously, this retarded 1/3rd of the GOP base is pushing governors to end stay-at-home orders. Governors have in some cases buckled under the pressure and allowed reopenings, and its seriously damaging to the GOP..... Below is a link showing the approval rating of governors in states hit hard by the coronavirus.


    DEM governors who are in states that are safely Dem in elections is not important. GOP governors in states that are safely GOP in elections are also not important either.....What is important though are the following: 

    1 - Swing states with DEM governors have shown an increase in support for the DEM Governor 
    2 - Swing states with a GOP governor have shown an increase in support for the Governor when that governor goes against Trump and sticks with social distancing 
    3 - Swing states with a GOP governor have shown a DECREASE in support for the Governor when that governor sticks with Trump and allows economic reopenings. 

    In Ohio, Republican Mike DeWine was one of the first Govs to lockdown the state, close schools, and basically shutdown everything when Trump was downplaying the threat of the virus. DeWine's popularity has soared as a result, from 49% to 80% even though he was a republican who broke with Trump. 

    In Michigan and Wisconsin, states with Dem governors that Trump won, Governor Evers (Wisconsin) and Governor Whitmer (Michigan) went hard with lockdowns and school closings even though they govern swing states that broke for Trump in 2016. By going sharply against Trump in their Coronavirus handling, their approval ratings within their states have risen from about 43% to about 66% 

    But if you look at Florida and Georgia, which are Red to Purple states with Republican Governors who stuck with Trump. The approval rating of governors have shit the bed. DeSantis of Florida has lost 7 points to go from 58% to 51%, while Kemp of Georgia is even lower at only 43% approval. 
    https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/internal-gop-poll-points-troubling-signs-for-georgia-republicans/hb6wfmQ7sQSkuHKXiipZdN/

    Kemp is exceptional because he went with what Trump recommended so hard that it forced Trump himself to tell Kemp he is going too far!

    The implications of this are pretty clear. In states where Governors have gone against Trump's outlines for what states should do, Governors have risen sharply in popularity. Republican Governors who go against Trump have risen in popularity, Republican Governors who follow Trump have lost support. Many of these shifts are in incredibly important states that will decide the 2020 election..... Michigan and Wisconsin are heavily supporting their Dem Governor, while Florida and Georgia are barely 50-50 on their GOP Governor. Only in Ohio has a GOP governor in a swing state rose in popularity, and he did so by going AGAINST Trump..... 

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    TLDR: This should have been an easy decision.... Once the early opportunities were missed and the Coronavirus became a global pandemic, this still should have been an easy decision. Lockdown everything to defeat the virus, or fuck around and keep things as normal as justifiable. 81% OF VOTERS HAVE GIVEN A FREE PASS TO LOCKDOWN THE COUNTRY AND CRASH THE ECONOMY, they UNDERSTAND the threat and that it has to be defeated at any cost..... The outcomes of these two choices are in favor of Trump as well if he picks the right decision..... If the virus is defeated or curtailed even if the economy takes a hit, voters are fine with that and would probably hand Trump re-election. If the virus is not defeated and these last few months were essentially wasted, Trump will lose reelection........ Yet even then despite such an EASY ASS DECISION, a fraction of GOP voters, the slim minority that are outnumbered by reasonable and sensible Republicans 2 to 1, the slim faction of the party who are as loudly vocal as they are immensely retarded, are pushing Trump and the GOP to keep the economy open and risk letting the disease fuck around, and Trump is listening to them. Because Trump is listening, the GOP 90% of the time is forced to listen as well, and those who are caving have seen their popularity in swing states plummet. 

    Trump is at risk of losing reelection because of his own retarded supporters. Not all of his supporters are retarded, a good majority of them are not and correctly understand that things should be locked down until there is full control over the virus. But because Trump is instead listening to the loud retarded minority of GOP supporters, his party is losing influence in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Florida, in Pennsylvania, and in Georgia. To make things even worse, the Republican Governor in Ohio is doing well preserving his job going into 2020, but he has done this by going against what Trump recommends, which does not bode well for Trump's odds in Ohio for 2020.  Many of these states were ones that Trump barely carried in 2016 when he won the election, making any loss of support almost catastrophic to his chances of winning in 2020. He is losing ground in nearly all of them, and the loud minority of dipshits in the GOP base are the reason why. They are pushing Trump to reopen the economy on the basis of liberty and freedom, which will only fuck Trump and a chunk of the GOP out of power in 2020. 

  • Greyparrot
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    News isn't going to be talking about this in October.

    Fake news spinning and media panic gaslighting have a very limited shelf life at the moment, especially with the failure of the Mueller Report promises. It's the main reason why Ukrainegate was shuffled along in a matter of months instead of an actual legitimate investigation taking years like the Mueller report.

    Cloroxgate and Lysolgate are already starting to reek.

    MSM did it to themselves.
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @Imabench
    Governors are just another piece of the whole game-the fact is when trump and biden get on the stage, biden will get rekted

    the real bulk of political power in the states are state legislatures where republicans have historically dominated
  • oromagi
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    --> @Imabench
    I agree that Trump missed his first real chance at popular support and winning an election by majority by inaction and misunderstanding for the first 8 or 9 weeks of the pandemic in US.

    Even now, Trump seem to placing all of his chips on inaction when his own experts tell him the odds are good this thing will come roaring back just in time for elections.  If Halloween is cancelled due to COVID, I give Trump zero chance of an honest win.  I think the odds are better that Trump will try to cancel or postpone the election than that he will win by honest vote. 

    Have you seen this article from Admin Theory and Praxis?


    This is from 3 weeks ago now but Johnson, et al argue that Republican's more liberal approach to COVID is already cutting deep into the thin electoral advantages that won Trump WI, MI, PA, etc in the 2016 election.

    "The COVID-19 pandemic could have a particularly direct effect on the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 3, 2020. All members of the U.S. Congress, one-third of Senators, and numerous state and local elected officials are up for election at this time. Given the gravity of the pandemic situation, it is likely to have a profound impact on the election (e.g., Cillizza, 2020).

    This research note models the potential effects of the COVID-19 virus on the political landscape of the U.S. past election projections have not accounted for the vast loss of life that is currently being projected as part of the COVID-19 response modeling (COVID ACT NOW, 2020). Should these dire projections hold, the political shifts in the nation could be dramatic based on the change in demographics alone

    Recall that individuals in this age group are more likely to vote Republican, which explains why Republican voters in this category are projected to be lost in greater numbers than Democratic voters. In looking at Table 3, if the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania continues to use only social distancing to combat the latest coronavirus, they could potentially lose over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters, in the 65+ age category. Even with a shelter-in-place order in effect, states such as Michigan and North Carolina could see significantly greater losses of Republican voters in this age group. These results suggest that when considering nothing other than the loss of life due to COVID-19, the demographic shifts alone, could be enough to alter the political landscape of the United States.

    As an example, if the results of the calculations noted in Table 3 were applied to the outcomes of the 2016 presidential election, a significant narrowing of the results in the closest contests would occur. For instance, Pennsylvania is implementing a social distancing action showing a projection of 190,000 adult fatalities including across the three age categories 18–49 (7,600), 50–64 (30,400), and 65+ (152,000). After accounting for voter participation, the calculations show that among age group one, 953 more Democratic voters than Republicans voters would lose their lives. In age group two, 1,824 more Republicans than Democrats would potentially perish while in age group three 13,680 more Republicans would potentially perish. Cumulatively, 14,551 more Republicans than Democrats would perish under these projections, a significant change given that Trump carried the Commonwealth by 44,292 votes. Michigan is also implementing a social distancing action and projections show that the estimated loss of life is lower than in Pennsylvania. However, Trump carried the state by 10,704 votes with the narrowest margin in the nation. The calculations suggest that 11,145 more Republicans than Democrats would potentially perish, suggesting that Michigan would be more difficult for Republicans to maintain their narrow win in 2016 for future elections."
  • Imabench
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    --> @oromagi
    I have considered if one side benefits electorally from certain segments of the population suffering from the coronavirus, but since Biden's support in the Dem primary was built a lot on older white voters I'm still skeptical of how much of an edge any one side would have, if you look only at whose voting bloc would be more inflicted by the virus. 

    Trump 100% won in 2016 by framing the election as a referendum on the 'Washington Machine', and even then a few thousand votes shifted the other way in certain locations would have cost him victory. If his conduct and haphazard economic policies havent erased that edge he had, then his bungling of the Coronavirus will do it for sure. Im just amazed that hes allowing his dumbass supporters to drive him to bungle this easy decision. He would rather lose and be popular with a loud minority than win and be popular with those who begrudgingly tolerate him. 


  • Imabench
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    the real bulk of political power in the states are state legislatures where republicans have historically dominated
    Nah. The Courts are where its at. National politicians can try to convince the country to steer a certain direction, but courts are the ones that can greenlight policy or stop it dead in its tracks. 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @Imabench
    SO the senate
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    Crowder exposed the fake scientist that fed the panicporn to the media for top dollar.

  • Dr.Franklin
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    --> @Greyparrot
    makes sense
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Imabench
    Nah. The Courts are where its at. National politicians can try to convince the country to steer a certain direction, but courts are the ones that can greenlight policy or stop it dead in its tracks.

    Only if it hits constitutional roadblocks, like Michigan's sorry excuse for a Governor.
  • Imabench
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    --> @Greyparrot
    You're proving my point pretty effectively by being a fantastic stand-in for the general type of retard I was referring to in the OP 
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Imabench
    This post won't age well by October.
  • Imabench
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    --> @Greyparrot
    Your last prediction was that Warren would win the nomination because the Dem establishment would rig it in her favor.

    She never won a single state. 

    If you want to get in the business of making predictions then actually analyze data, organize evidence, and use your head, because you havent done it up to this point and its pretty certain you wont start doing it anytime soon
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Imabench
    She might still get the VP slot. It aint over.


    DNC establishment still has their self-interests.
  • ILikePie5
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    --> @Imabench
    Your last prediction was that Warren would win the nomination because the Dem establishment would rig it in her favor.
    They did rig it...for the wrong candidate 🤷‍♂️
  • ILikePie5
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    --> @Imabench
    the slim faction of the party who are as loudly vocal as they are immensely retarded
    This same rhetoric won him 2016. Be careful what you wish for. Trump’s approvals haven’t gone below where he was before his peak (around 44-45%). Trump outperformed polls last time and he will do it again. If the Dem nominee was Hillary, she could win, but Biden as we all know is a disaster in the making. He’s benefited from hiding in his basement the entire time. But when November rolls around, Trump can at least argue he was trying to do something while Joe Biden was in his house arguing that he didn’t sexually assault Tara Reade.

    Plus I think there’s a common misconception. The stay at home orders were implemented to flatten the curve not bring it down to zero...to have enough hospital space and ventilators and build logistics for tests, etc. 

    With regards to Trump, I’ve observed one thing: whenever he looks weak, he always comes back stronger, whether it be the primaries, the general election, Russia, impeachment. Will the trend stop now? I don’t know. We’ll see in November. Besides, even if Trump loses, GOP easily retakes the House in 2022 and holds the Senate. Because Biden as a President would be a disaster.
  • Imabench
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    --> @ILikePie5
    How is it that you post twice and still fail to add anything substantial to the conversation worth responding to and analyzing? 
  • Nemiroff
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    --> @Imabench
    I agree with pie. Biden will get destroyed by trump in debates and general PR. He lacks trumps charisma, and lacks the focus and genuiness of bernie/pete/warren. He was a poor choice. The only hope biden has is trump continuing with his daily briefings and medical suggestions.
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Nemiroff
    Biden will get destroyed by trump in debates and general PR. He lacks trumps charisma, and lacks the focus and genuiness of bernie/pete/warren. He was a poor choice. 
    I agree, Biden will get wrecked in debates and PR. But I think his fundamental problem is deeper than that.

    His campaign is making many of the exact same strategy errors hilary clinton made. He is a running a "trump bad" kind of campaign. Making the campaign about the morality and character of the 2 candidates is a horrible idea. Joe has a long record of doing shitty things. His family has a record of using Joe's office to make money. He now has sexual assault allegations too. He is not a man whose morality and character is above reproach. While he isn't as bad as trump, a moral argument where one is is a little less horrible, is not a strong argument. 

    Given then he has virtually no ideas to actually help people (like warren or sanders have) to convince them to vote for him, he is going to end up with a low energy campaign, get low turnout in critical areas, and then lose. 
  • ILikePie5
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    --> @Imabench
    How is it that you post twice and still fail to add anything substantial to the conversation worth responding to and analyzing? 
    Idk. Maybe you think I’m right. Or maybe you think I’m so wrong that you’re a at a lack of words.😂
  • ILikePie5
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    --> @Nemiroff
    I agree with pie. Biden will get destroyed by trump in debates and general PR. He lacks trumps charisma, and lacks the focus and genuiness of bernie/pete/warren. He was a poor choice. The only hope biden has is trump continuing with his daily briefings and medical suggestions.
    Historically there’s been only one winner of the White House who has lost both the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primaries: Bill Clinton, the Comeback Kid. I don’t think Trump’s approvals will go below 44-45 no matter what he does. The 3-4 percent he needs is within the margin of error since Trump, at least in the Midwest overperformed his poll numbers.