Key takeaways from this election

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  • thett3
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    -Trumpism is a viable electoral strategy

    -The polls were horrifically wrong, worse than 2016 by a lot. Don’t pay much attention to them next time. 

    -The “shy republican” vote was real

    -Biden’s mandate is to not be Donald Trump. If he can govern respectfully and moderately he will be popular. If he tries to go far left, he will fail. 

    -The “demographics is destiny” argument that democrats liked to make is dangerously wrong and extraordinarily toxic. I freely admit I believed in it and supported some pretty nasty things as a consequence 

    -“It’s my or the left” worked for almost every Republican in a close race and almost worked for Donald Trump himself. It’s going to work in every close race in 2022 and 2024 if Biden doesn’t temper the more violent and anti civilizational undercurrents on the left.  

    -Susan Collins is an unbeatable political goddess 

    Any others? Throw your hot takes in here! 
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @thett3
    -Biden’s mandate is to not be Donald Trump. If he can govern respectfully and moderately he will be popular. If he tries to go far left, he will fail. 
    I highly disagree with this one. The main part of Obama and then Trump's appeal was populism. Promising to bring popular reforms. Obama promised universal healthcare and won big. Then he failed to deliver it and his popularity dropped. Trump made lots of populist promises like jobs coming back. But then when elected, his actual policy was mostly cookie cutter republican bullshit and he didn't deliver most of it. 

    Biden won without making any populist promises because people were just sick of trump. But that is a one time advantage. If he doesn't try to bring populist changes, he will fail.



  • n8nrgmi
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    the only way trump can come back in four years is if biden fails as president in the eyes of most people, because most people dont want trump to come back

    trump's kids have the name and association necessary to get into politics. trump probably wants ivanka to be the first female president, and she use to be a democrat so she may be more flexible on policy, and she's more level headed than her dad. i always vote democrat but i would consider ivanka as president. 
  • thett3
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    --> @n8nrgmi
    When I say Trumpism I mean right wing populism not Trump/his family specifically 
  • thett3
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    That’s a good perspective. The left certainly won’t be happy if he doesn’t get them any major wins. It’s a pretty tight line to walk but Biden is a skilled politician (a lot more than people say) so he might be able to do it 
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @thett3
    That’s a good perspective. The left certainly won’t be happy if he doesn’t get them any major wins. It’s a pretty tight line to walk but Biden is a skilled politician (a lot more than people say) so he might be able to do it 
    based on the leaks of who he is vetting for his cabinet, his presidency will be a failure. He is vetting right wing republicans, but no progressives. 

  • SirAnonymous
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    Regardless of what Biden wants to do, he probably won't be able to do it with a Republican Senate. So if he's doomed without making any popular changes, he may very well be doomed before he even begins. Of course, I doubt someone of his age is even going to run for a second term, so it may not make a difference. I could be wrong about that, though.
  • thett3
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    The problem for the left is that a good deal of Biden voters either voted Republican down ballot, or used to vote Republican and now vote Democrat out of disgust for Trump more than policy. It’s true that politics makes for strange bedfellows but a coalition where rich white suburbanites are a key portion is going to have a hard time staying together if the party lurches to the left 
  • thett3
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    Oh I forgot my other key takeaway:

    Taking this long to count votes is completely unacceptable and cannot be allowed to happen again. All states need to take a lesson from Florida 
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @thett3
    The problem for the left is that a good deal of Biden voters either voted Republican down ballot, or used to vote Republican and now vote Democrat out of disgust for Trump more than policy. It’s true that politics makes for strange bedfellows but a coalition where rich white suburbanites are a key portion is going to have a hard time staying together if the party lurches to the left 
    there is some truth to this. but how many of the "shy trump voters" would vote for a different candidate who actually wanted do things for them? Things like universal healthcare are very popular. People want that. Even trump made claims that he was going to reform healthcare and pre-existing conditions would be covered. Trump was lying of course, but he still promised it a bunch of times. 

    If a populist politicians came out and laid out a specific plan for how they were going to make the average person's life better in a meaningful way, that would be a powerful message. One that few democratic or republican candidate could compete with. Fundamentally, the leadership of both parties like the way things work now. They don't want any significant changes to it. Biden even promised his donors that nothing would fundamentally change under his administration. But populism is why Obama beat hilary. It is why Trump beat hilary. And in 4 years, the winner is likely going to be promising alot of populist reform. 

  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @SirAnonymous
    Regardless of what Biden wants to do, he probably won't be able to do it with a Republican Senate. So if he's doomed without making any popular changes, he may very well be doomed before he even begins.
    the current reporting is that he is vetting right wing republicans for his cabinet but no one even remotely left of center. He was always doomed before he began because he is a right wing politician. 
  • thett3
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    Yeah I agree with everything you said. Tucker Carlson made a good point (I know you probably hate him lol) when he said the party that will win in the next generation will be the party that makes it easier for 25 year olds to get married, buy homes, and start families. And they’re going to deserve the win.

    Both parties have some good (or at least popular) policies and there’s ripe opportunity for someone who can bridge the gap. Donald Trump promised to be that person, he failed, and that’s why he’s a one term president. 
  • SirAnonymous
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    the current reporting is that he is vetting right wing republicans for his cabinet but no one even remotely left of center.
    Where did you here that?
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @SirAnonymous
    the current reporting is that he is vetting right wing republicans for his cabinet but no one even remotely left of center.
    Where did you here that?
    there's been a number of articles about it. Here is one where it discusses Biden considering John Kasich. 
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @thett3
    Yeah I agree with everything you said. Tucker Carlson made a good point (I know you probably hate him lol) when he said the party that will win in the next generation will be the party that makes it easier for 25 year olds to get married, buy homes, and start families. And they’re going to deserve the win.
    I do hate Tucker. but that is a good point. 

    Both parties have some good (or at least popular) policies and there’s ripe opportunity for someone who can bridge the gap.
    what policies do republicans have? As far as I know republicans haven't had a new idea since regan. They just keep going back to cut regulation and cut taxes over and over despite trickle down economics being a failure. 

  • Greyparrot
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    --> @thett3
    Taking this long to count votes is completely unacceptable and cannot be allowed to happen again. All states need to take a lesson from Florida 

    Do you think it will be a campaign point in 2 years for the Congress? 

    Promising election reforms to legitimize the process?
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    They just keep going back to cut regulation and cut taxes over and over despite trickle down economics being a failure. 

    As opposed to destroying competition, jobs, and opportunity. If you can't deliver those 3 things, nobody is going to give a crap what your Keynesian economic philosophy is.
  • Death23
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    --> @thett3
    The accuracy of the polls is something that's hard to gauge until all the votes are in, and another difficulty with it is that so many people voted by mail over the course of the months preceding the election.
  • sadolite
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    The election has not been called and no candidate has been legally or  officially been elected President. Just thought all you people who think the election  is over should know that.

  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Greyparrot
    As opposed to destroying competition, jobs, and opportunity. If you can't deliver those 3 things, nobody is going to give a crap what your Keynesian economic philosophy is.
    trickle down economics have been used for decades and the working class is worse off now than it has been for decades. Trickle down economics is a failure. Ironically, it is even bad for the wealthy in the long term. But they can't see past the short term gains they get. 

  • thett3
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    --> @Death23
    Not really, we don’t know the exact popular vote margin but it will likely wind up being around Biden +4. Most polls had him up double digits or very close, the only ones that showed a relatively close race were partisan R polls that everybody laughed at. 

    More importantly, the polls were wildly outside the margin of error in most critical states, and the few polls that tested deep red states were WAY off. The NYT/Siena polls, considered to be the very best, had Trump up single digits in Kansas and Alaska...didn’t happen. The only places I can think of where the polls were good were Georgia, Texas, and Arizona
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @thett3
    trickle down economics have been used for decades and the working class is worse off now than it has been for decades.

    That's objectively not true. Far more presidents have used Keynesian trickle up policies lately, most notably during Obama's term, with little effect. 22 Trillion dollars spent on trickle-up policies with no noticeable effect on the poverty level.


    All 3 of those things I mentioned didn't do so well under Obama Keynesian policies. Maybe it's time to try something else?

    Maybe try something less Keynesian that does not encourage this???


    This chart shows a substantial proportion of Americans are not following the 3 Brookings rules to reach the middle class.
    1) at least finish high school
    2) get a full-time job  
    3) wait until age 21 to get married and have children.

    Perhaps we should implement a policy less Keynesian such as this proposal:

    A more effective economic policy would aim at restoring the long-term growth rate by reducing uncertainty and restoring investor and consumer confidence.
    Here are four proposals to help get us there:

    First, Congress and the administration should agree on a 10-year program of government spending cuts to reduce the deficit. Permanent tax reduction can only be achieved by reducing government spending.

    Second, reduce corporate tax rates and expense capital investment by closing loopholes.

    Third, announce a five-year moratorium on new regulations.

    Fourth, adopt an enforceable 0%-2% inflation target to allay fears of future high inflation.

    that would achieve the desired outcome of 
    1) OPPORTUNITES
    2) COMPETITION
    3) JOBS

    Wages can't rise if the supply of jobs shrinks in relation to the labor pool.
    101 supply and demand economics.
  • thett3
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    Man, I hope so. It just isn’t acceptable to have this level of sluggishness and incompetence
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @thett3
    I've seen enough resistance to paid propaganda to know it will affect future elections to some degree. 

    The people need results, not excuses.
  • Death23
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    --> @thett3
    Yeah, just looked at them. They were off by an average of about 4 points it looks like.