Town is winning a lot lately

Author: Lunatic ,

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  • Lunatic
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    Lunatic
    Pulled the last ten games and 3 months of data (exluding mharmans and bears game) and this is what I found:

    Riddle Mafia- Town win
    Avatar Mafia- Town win
    uWu Mafia- Town win
    Technology mafia- Town win
    Arrowverse mafia- Mafia win
    BAMF mafia- Mafia win
    Civil war generals- Town win
    Naruto mafia- Town win
    Bastard states- Town win
    Stormlight Archive- Town win

    8/10 of the last games are town wins. My question is: What's up with this? I remember multiple complaints on Debate.org all the time how town rarely won, mafia tended to go on huge win streaks. Looking at the general balance I'd say most of these games were pretty fair and balanced, with maybe slight variables, or arguments that some are swingy, but in general I don't think those aspects would effect mafia skill all that much. I have my own theories and ideas for what's going on, but I am genuinely curious what some of your thoughts are on this trend.
  • Speedrace
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    Speedrace
    Mafia kept quitting, but a lot of those gave mafia large disadvantages like in Avatar mafia
  • Speedrace
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    --> @SupaDudz
    When you have the only mafia win in the last ten games B)
  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Speedrace
    I’m not good at being mafia lmao. 
  • SupaDudz
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    --> @Speedrace
    I’d argue Avatar was definitely a swingy game, but Lunatic blatantly worked for town versus your team so that’s why you had a disad 
  • Lunatic
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    --> @Speedrace
    Mafia kept quitting, but a lot of those gave mafia large disadvantages like in Avatar mafia
    Even the two mafia wins though were very close. BAMF, supa survived by a miracle despite doc not making sense with a flipped jailkeeper, and me and sir won arrowverse on a lucky gambit that paid off, but could have easily backfired and killed both of us had intelligence not quick hammered. 
  • Speedrace
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    --> @Lunatic
    Even the two mafia wins though were very close. BAMF, supa survived by a miracle despite doc not making sense with a flipped jailkeeper, and me and sir won arrowverse on a lucky gambit that paid off, but could have easily backfired and killed both of us had intelligence not quick hammered. 
    Every mafia win is close lol
  • Lunatic
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    From the DDO archives list:

    Town won 103 games of 283.

    Towns total win percentage was 36.4%.

    From the Dart archiveslist:

    Town won 17 games of 37 (minus concept games that aren't actual mafia) 

    Towns total win percentage is 45.95%


    Now obviously this data doesn't mean much considering the length of DDO vs DART, but I am interested in streaks and trends and the reasons behind them
  • SirAnonymous
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    --> @Lunatic
    It's probably because most scumteams lack the sheer awesomeness that we had.
  • Speedrace
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    Funny that everyone complains about lazy town here
  • Speedrace
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    --> @SirAnonymous
    It's probably because most scumteams lack the sheer awesomeness that we had.
    +1
  • warren42
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    Town is usually OP because everyone on this site hates VTs so they give way too many roles and then mafia is up against a town with 6 PRs and 3 other people have passive roles
  • Lunatic
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    To prove my point on how bad some of these scum win trends on DDO were

    DDO's had some insane scum streaks usually maxing out at ten, but not getting a whole lot better in between. The worst period was this:
    Epic DDO, Fire and Ice, American politics, School Districts, Battlestar Galactica, HvV, Harry Potter, Christmas Mafia, Philosopher Mafia, Steampunk mafia
    After steam punk there was only 2 town wins between that and the next 10 games. After the Rosario Town win, there was ONLY 1 Town win between that and the next 10 scum wins.
    Out of 30 games, town only won 4 games lol. This was the the worst trend for town victories on DDO history. 
    For a while it evened out a bit.

    Mafia went on a another big streak between civilization mafia, and  movie characters Mafia, with town only winning 3 games out of 15. 

    So yeah DDO was known for some pretty big  scum streaks. I find it very interesting and rare for people from Dart/DDO to see such a big town win streak. This is kind of record breaking in context to how this is almost never seen, which is why I am so curious and think this is fascinating.


  • Speedrace
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    --> @warren42
    Good point
  • Speedrace
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    I may have polluted with my rolemadness only games ;-;
  • Lunatic
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    --> @warren42
    Town is usually OP because everyone on this site hates VTs so they give way too many roles and then mafia is up against a town with 6 PRs and 3 other people have passive roles
    This was also a problem with DDO though. It was rare to see more than one vanila townie per game. I remember a time where if there was 2 Vanillas it was considered a counter claim and one of them would almost always get lynched lol.
  • Lunatic
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    --> @Speedrace
    Funny that everyone complains about lazy town here
    My theory is that the majority of the players are lazy, which hurts mafia almost more than town in most cases since the chance that one of the few non-lazies will become scum seems much lower. While their are plenty of non lazy's on the site, it's rare to get all of them in the same game. We usually end up with like 2-3 sometimes 4 non lazies per game.
  • warren42
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    --> @Lunatic
    I don't remember that but you played longer than I did
  • Lunatic
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    --> @warren42
    I don't remember that but you played longer than I did
    Pretty sure you joined in the golden age of DDO where players were maturing and games were a lot less one sided. We started fixing a lot of those silly trends. We also just had some pretty decent players around when you joined.