Now that corona virus vaccines are being administered, how will we be able to tell if they are working? The current survival rate without it is 99.6%. One has to assume nothing is 100% effective as nothing is or ever was. So that leaves .04%. How can one even tell if it had any effect because .04% would be a margin of error in calculating or counting anything. Add to that that the vaccine is only 95% effective. How will we gauge its effectiveness? Less and less people were dying from it already, less and less people were being hospitalized already before the vaccine. Testing positive clearly means nothing. Some experience no symptoms at all, some just get mildly ill. There has to be tens of millions that are positive and not tested. I've never been tested and I had a runny nose for a couple of days a few weeks ago. Whos to say that wasn't covid? I really don't see how in any real scientific manner its effectiveness can be measured and separated from nature just taking its course and heard immunity being what works. I am told that the vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting covid it supposedly makes the symptoms less severe. How will they determine that the vaccine is doing that when the vast majority show no symptoms or just mild symptoms anyway without the vaccine?
Corona virus vaccine
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@sadolite
Now that corona virus vaccines are being administered, how will we be able to tell if they are working?
Fewer people get infected.
The current survival rate without it is 99.6%.
Johns Hopkins estimates the present US mortality rate at 1.8% although we should note that the excess death rates for the year are much higher and we are only beginning to understand how much damage this disease does to the heart and lungs, even in some mild and undetected cases. We probably need 20 or 30 years of data to get a proper estimate but some papers are already estimating an average 13 years decrease in life expectancy of US males infected with the virus. Let's keep in mind that more than of all Americans infected with the virus are not included in Johns Hopkins estimate because more than half are only just infected and no outcome has yet been determined. Nor does this survival rate account for the people who died from substandard or absent healthcare as an indirect result of hospital overburden. I would characterize the current COVID survival rate at 98% and dropping in the US.
Less and less people were dying from it already, less and less people were being hospitalized already before the vaccine.
In fact, deaths from COVID are up 39% over the past 14 days. And hospitalizations, which have been at record highs for a month, increased 16% over the past 14 days. We are seeing reports this week of patients being medivac'd from Montana to Seattle, Washington because there are no available ICU beds any closer. We are seeing reports of patients being treated in ambulances in the parking for 12 hours for lack of room in the ERs.
I've never been tested and I had a runny nose for a couple of days a few weeks ago. Whos to say that wasn't covid? I
In fact, the present odds of somebody not masking up and social distancing contracted the virus is quite a bit higher than getting a cold. You may very well have been infected.
really don't see how in any real scientific manner its effectiveness can be measured
Measuring infection rates seems pretty informative.
nd separated from nature just taking its course and heard immunity being what works.
Sweden reports that its experiment with herd immunity was a failure
Sweden's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country.
“The issue of herd immunity is difficult,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, said at a news briefing, according to Bloomberg News.
“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now," Tegnell said.
Sweden has seen a resurgence of the virus in recent weeks, with the rate of new infections more than doubling from earlier this year.
I am told that the vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting covid it supposedly makes the symptoms less severe.
You have been told wrong. The COVID vaccine does not use a live virus and cannot infect you with COVID-19.
How will they determine that the vaccine is doing that when the vast majority show no symptoms or just mild symptoms anyway without the vaccine?
Same way as any other virus. Smallpox and polio infection rates have declined by nearly 100% in the past 60 years. In 1962, 500,000 people/year would get the measles (I lost much of my hearing to measles as a kid) In 1992, that number was down to 89 measles cases per year.
"You have been told wrong. The COVID vaccine does not use a live virus and cannot infect you with COVID-19." I didn't say the vaccine would infect you I said it would not prevent you from getting covid.
"Dr. Fauci: First COVID Vaccines Will Aim To Reduce Symptoms, Not Infections" Which brings me right back to the question, how will you be able to determine its effectiveness at reducing symptoms when the vast majority show no or few symptoms anyway without the vaccine
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@sadolite
Wait and see.
I personally won't decide whether to have a vaccination or not, until I have waited and seen.
And sadly or wisely, I am certainly not prepared to accept everything that experts and politicians tell me.
Testing positive for corona virus in of itself is meaningless. Basing decisions on this is at best speculative irresponsible and unscientific. The sick should be quarantined not the healthy. Isolating sick people is a quarantine. Isolating healthy people is tyranny.
The problem is that a lot of the time you don't know if someone is sick or healthy.
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@Crocodile
Sadolite neither knows nor cares what incubation periods or asymptomatic presentations are.
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@Crocodile
What is sick and what is healthy?
At any given moment, how many people are 100% healthy.....Maybe a new born, for a brief moment......But even then?
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@oromagi
Oromagi, why do you attempt rational, logical common sense communication ---not to mention facts and truth-- with a rolling stone/rock of such density?
A quiet rock/stone sits in meditation and allows biological life to grow on it if lower density will allow biological life to seep inside and have potential for more complex consciousness and some day evolve to a more complex biology that accesses intelligence.
A rolling stone/rock is constantly knocking off anything that would attempt to plant seeds of biological life ergo conscious life and the potential for intelligence to evolve on it.
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@drafterman
What you know about corona virus is what you are told to believe. You know even less than I
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@sadolite
What I know is that you apparently root your sense of security by assuming strangers on the internet are less informed than you are.
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@drafterman
I am not the one who started it, follow your own advice.
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@sadolite
You literally are the person that started it.
D-man..."You literally are the person that started it."....
More rational, logical, common sense from 'Spock", uhh, I mean 'Scrooge', or, is that 'Grumpy' the short dwarf?
Must be 'Scrooge' since they still have me blocked some year later. Go figure.
Maybe if they get the CoV2 vaccine they will feel safe{?} to interact with me, again, on the internet
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@drafterman
and I quote "Sadolite neither knows nor cares what incubation periods or asymptomatic presentations are." Who started it again?
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@sadolite
The person who started this thread.
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@sadolite
Since I was born before 1957, my bodys cell have memory of MMR diesease and needs no MMR vaccine.
I dont know if Ive ever had German measles. 'Im fairly sure that Ive never had Co-V-2. This is one reason why it is more dangerous than any flu virus, that, Ive most humans have probably been exposed to many times over their lives, ergo, my cells memory is prepared for the flu virus.
Every thing Ive read about the Co-V-2 --and (enveloped) corona virus-- is that is a mutation of non-human animal virus.
Apparrently there is some conspiracists out there who believe Co-V-2 mutation was caused by 5G technology and that is one of the concerns for why the Nashville TN sucide bomber exploded his RV next to AT&T.
...."The first link John Gregory saw pushing a connection between 5G and the coronavirus pandemic was on a French conspiracy website called Les moutons enragés, which loosely translates as “The rabid sheep.”
....A January 20 post floated that the millimeter wave spectrum used by 5G technology and Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, could be related, pointing to reports about Wuhan installing 5G towers before the outbreak.
....Three months later, conspiracy theorists making similar claims were setting cellphone towers on fire in Europe.
...Gregory, a senior analyst at the internet trust tool NewsGuard, caught an early glimpse of the 5G coronavirus conspiracy theory, but it didn’t take long before the fake news started to spread. Two days after the French blog post, a Belgian newspaper called Het Laatste Nieuws published an interview with a local doctor, who floated the unfounded claim that the coronavirus outbreak could be linked to 5G cellphone towers installed near Wuhan in 2019.
....The article was taken down within hours, but the theory had already spread to English-language Facebook pages. Gregory wasn’t surprised.".....
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@ebuc
MMR is a proven tested vaccine over decades. I question the testing of the covid vaccine and you hate that. I question all science. And when someone resorts to demonizing me because I don't immediately buy into it it I know the science is flawed.
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@sadolite
MMR is a proven tested vaccine over decades.
We agree
I question the testing of the covid vaccine and you hate that.
False
I question all science. And when someone resorts to demonizing me because I don't immediately buy into it it I know the science is flawed.
I dont recall "demoniizing " you about CoV2 vaccine. You may need to redirect that comment to some else you have in mind.
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@ebuc
I am demonized by politicians and scientists on a daily bases. That is 100% proof to me that their science is flawed. They cant convince me using "real science." For example: "So called science" tells me that wearing anything as a mask helps prevent the spread of a virus. This, according to all mask manufactures is a complete and total lie. Not one mask manufacturer will say this or endorse this claim if the mask you are wearing is not specifically designed to filter a virus. Mask manufactures can not and will not make this claim not now not ever. If is a bold face lie and to say otherwise would be grounds for immediate civil law suits and criminal prosecution to the mask manufactures. Who has better science and more believable science? Mask manufactures. Yet I am mocked and demonized by govt and "so called science" for questioning their science when all confirmable evidence says they are dead wrong.
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@sadolite
You are a confused person who only wants to believe what you think and not interested rational, logical common sense as well direct, circumstantial and anecdotal evidence of what is is truth. Sad :--( Your appear to me as to be likened to some religous fundamentalist who are not interested in truth.
I am demonized by politicians and scientists on a daily bases. That is 100% proof to me that their science is flawed. That cant convince me using science. For example: "So called science" tells me that wearing anything as a mask helps prevent the spread of a virus. This, according to all mask manufactures is a complete and total lie. Not one mask manufacturer will say this or endorse this claim if the mask you are wearing is not specifically designed to filter a virus. Mask manufactures can not and will not make this claim not now not ever. If is a bold face lie and to say otherwise would be grounds for immediate civil law suits and criminal prosecution to the m ask manufactures. Who has better science and more believable science? Mask manufactures. Yet I am mocked and demonized by govt and "so called science" for questioning their science when all confirmable evidence says they are dead wrong.
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@ebuc
You prove my case, You dismiss me as a human being, fuck you
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@sadolite
I am demonized by politicians and scientists on a daily bases. That is 100% proof to me that their science is flawed. They cant convince me using "real science." For example: "So called science" tells me that wearing anything as a mask helps prevent the spread of a virus. This, according to all mask manufactures is a complete and total lie. Not one mask manufacturer will say this or endorse this claim if the mask you are wearing is not specifically designed to filter a virus. Mask manufactures can not and will not make this claim not now not ever. If is a bold face lie and to say otherwise would be grounds for immediate civil law suits and criminal prosecution to the mask manufactures. Who has better science and more believable science? Mask manufactures. Yet I am mocked and demonized by govt and "so called science" for questioning their science when all confirmable evidence says they are dead wrong.
Do mask manufacturer actively negate the claim of scientists, or do they just not endorse it? A lack of endorsement is not equivalent a negation. And the fact is, it is prudent to not make claims that could open you up to liability.
7 days later
Where one should notice a difference is hospitalizations should drop since those that get it would have reduced symptoms like the chicken pox vaccine. Unlike myself who missed ten days of school and was covered in itchy bumps my son had a few dots and a temperature for two days. Reducing the hospitalization rate and length of symptoms would be the goal.
11 days later
there working
23 elderly died right after taking shot in norway
6 people died during testing