Delta >> Omicron >> Evolutionary Future

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#1
ebuc
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If you hit a paywall with this NY times article, go to tool/menu-bar ' view ' and choose ' reader view '.


...." That’s why six months ago many scientists, including us, thought the next variant would descend from Delta, which was dominant at the time. But evolution defied our expectations, and we got Omicron, which has a huge number of mutations and isn’t descended from Delta. It’s not known exactly how the virus made the big evolutionary jump that led to Omicron, although many scientists (including us) suspect the variant may have emerged from someone who couldn’t fight off the virus well, allowing it time to mutate. "...

..." Taking all this together, we expect SARS-CoV-2 will continue to cause new epidemics, but they will increasingly be driven by the ability to skirt around the immune system. In this sense, the future may look something like the seasonal flu, where new variants cause waves of cases each year. If this happens, which we expect it will, vaccines may need to be updated regularly similar to the flu vaccines unless we develop broader variant-proof vaccines. "..

..." But we do know that immunity reduces disease severity even when it doesn’t fully block infections and spread, and immunity gained from vaccination and prior infections has helped blunt the impact of the Omicron wave in many countries. Updated or improved vaccines and other measures that slow transmission remain our best strategies for handling an uncertain evolutionary future. ".....
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oromagi
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When forecasting the future, "things will continue as they have done, with some variation, and in spite of recent surprising shifts" is a pretty good approach no matter what the subject.
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Reader view is only available in Firefox unless adding an extension to chrome. 
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@oromagi
Orogami, agreed, prognostications based only historical experience can only tell us so much about various futures and less so when it comes to biologic and viral futures.

Ratman, had no idea about chromes lack of a ' reader ' view.  I just learned about it myself, and glad to know it gets around some paywalls.


13 days later

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.I say yes... " Is Omnicron Inevitable?

.." Dr. Roberts cites one study from Hong Kong (that is still undergoing peer review) showing that Omicron multiplies 70 times faster in the airway than both the Delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2 virus. But it grows 10 times more slowly in lung tissue than the other variants—several studies show Omicron doesn’t replicate as easily in the lungs, he says.

...The first finding provides a clue to why Omicron is so contagious, while the second helps to explain the lower disease severity, he says. .......

....While some have suggested that most people will eventually get the coronavirus, you should do your best to avoid infection with Omicron—there is no justification for deliberately getting infected so you have what you think will be a mild illness that will provide you with more immunity going forward, the doctors say. “It’s a gamble people shouldn’t take,” Dr. Roberts says. “Yes, you’ll have immunity from infection, but we don’t know how long that immunity is going to last.” ...".... https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-omicron-infection-inevitable#:~:text=While%20some%20have%20suggested%20that,%2C%20the%20doctors%20say.
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Part 2

..." The last surge, driven by the Omicron variant, affected Americans unequally, a pattern likely to repeat itself. The share of Americans killed by the coronavirus during the Omicron surge was 63% higher than other large, wealthy nations and peak daily deaths exceeded the peak of the surge driven by the more virulent Delta variant. Deaths and hospitalizations were not evenly spread: Black adults were hospitalized at four times the rate of white adults at Omicron's peak. Children too young to be vaccinated were hospitalized at record levels, and one in five COVID deaths among children occurred during the Omicron surge. "....https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/second-opinions/98157
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Reece101
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@ebuc
...." That’s why six months ago many scientists, including us, thought the next variant would descend from Delta, which was dominant at the time. But evolution defied our expectations, and we got Omicron, which has a huge number of mutations and isn’t descended from Delta. It’s not known exactly how the virus made the big evolutionary jump that led to Omicron, although many scientists (including us) suspect the variant may have emerged from someone who couldn’t fight off the virus well, allowing it time to mutate. "...
Omicron mutated from a single individual? 

..." Taking all this together, we expect SARS-CoV-2 will continue to cause new epidemics, but they will increasingly be driven by the ability to skirt around the immune system. In this sense, the future may look something like the seasonal flu, where new variants cause waves of cases each year. If this happens, which we expect it will, vaccines may need to be updated regularly similar to the flu vaccines unless we develop broader variant-proof vaccines. "..
Old news. 

..." But we do know that immunity reduces disease severity even when it doesn’t fully block infections and spread, and immunity gained from vaccination and prior infections has helped blunt the impact of the Omicron wave in many countries. Updated or improved vaccines and other measures that slow transmission remain our best strategies for handling an uncertain evolutionary future. ".....
Common sense. 

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@Reece101
Omicron mutated from a single individual?

I presume it begins with one  ---RNA or DNA never both----, and that one reproduces itself inside biologic --always RNA and DNA--- cell,

Back in 90s' in Fred Hoyles book The intelligent Universe, and regarding proliferation of bacteria, they reproduce so fast, that, if left unchcecked, they would proliferate so fast as to equal the mass of known Universe, in about 6 months.

They find some species of bacteria in existent in pools of radiactive cooling water where there plutonoium encased rods are regulated by the water.

Bacteria found in pools of pure sulpher, so and so on.  The info on virues in extremme enviroments is maybe harder to discern, but Hoyle believe viruses were coming in from higher altitudes above Earth and originally from passing comets.

Fuller also suggested biologic life on Earth came from extra-terrestrial source.


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Back in 90s' in Fred Hoyles book The intelligent Universe, and regarding proliferation of bacteria, they reproduce so fast, that, if left unchcecked, they would proliferate so fast as to equal the mass of known Universe, in about 6 months.
Yeah I’ve heard about that. Though covid is a virus. 

They find some species of bacteria in existent in pools of radiactive cooling water where there plutonoium encased rods are regulated by the water.
I’ve heard about that too. I wonder what research they yield. 

Bacteria found in pools of pure sulpher, so and so on.  The info on virues in extremme enviroments is maybe harder to discern, but Hoyle believe viruses were coming in from higher altitudes above Earth and originally from passing comets.

Fuller also suggested biologic life on Earth came from extra-terrestrial source.
The hypotheses is called panspermia. 
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@Reece101
The hypotheses is called panspermia. 

Been there and been posting that stuff for over 20 years now.  Here is the best site on such info. LINK

Brigs I communicated some on these ideas back in 90's. vi his site, Hoyle and Fullers ideas included.