I thank my opponent for his arguments. I shall move to rebuttals to his claims
First off I would like to mention that my opponent does not talk about Nagy and his style, therefore my opponents concedes the Nagy debate so extensions for that
-Nagy does not fit Trubisky's playcall
-Nagy's collegian level plays do not work in today's nfl
-Nagy doesn't focus on the Bears solid run game
-Nagy is not a good enough coach in his first year to guide the Bears to an NFC North Division win
Vote CON for Nagy
Anways onto the the rebuttals
I. The Offense AT
My opponent talks about how running game being a vital target. While I agree that run game is vital, the passing game is critical in it's sense as well
Let's look at the teams with the worse pass offense. Chicago, Indy, Buffalo, Baltimore, Carolina. Buffalo ranked #6 is run offense, yet was destroyed by a team with a better run offense, true. But they ALSO had a better a pass defense by a landslide. A pass game is key to winning games with a good rush defense, and that is not simply going to go an do it in a game. That is an example of the pass prevailing over the run
Here are the stats for that game
Taylor 17/37 0 TD 1 INT
Peterman 0/3 0 TD 1 INT
Bortles 17/23 1 TD 0 INT
The weaker running game in this was believe it or not the Jags as Fournette ran 21 carries for 57 yards while McCoy ran 19 times for 75 yards. You clearly see who did better, but who won. It was the team with the better pass offense
Let's dive deeper. New Orleans had the a top 5 pass offense while Carolina had a top 5 worse pass offense, a dramatic difference. With 2 elite QB's, Brees wins this wild card matchup 31-26. Let's look at stats.
Cam Newton 24/40 2TD, 0INT
Drew Brees 23/33 2TD 1INT
All of the Panthers rushes added up for a total of 26 carries for 107 yards while New Orleans had only 19 carries for 44 yards. Yet who still one? The Saints
Yes the saints did score a rushing TD, but one was to a fullback that only ran it 1 yard, fullback being a forgotten position now a days and one from a lucky Panthers miss.
You clearly see teams with consistency are the teams that end up performing better. The most balanced team right now is Detroit right now offense vs defense. If Detroit keeps up the consistent run->pass efficiency, they will take the lead in the division. While the Bears have a top run, that isn't enough to propel them and even in some cases, Rodgers will still be Rodgers and with his insane QB awareness, will find a way to come back.
Every division leader has a QB that is viable as well. Trubisky has the weakest passer rating. Dolphins have Tannehill, Chiefs have Mahomes, Bengals have Dalton, Titans have Mariota, Rams have Goff. These QB have some top tier. Trubisky hasn't proven top tier yet so we can not say he will win the division
II. Defense AT
My opponent argues that a pass-rush would be enough to claim a division title. While that may be true, it needs to be perfected, which Nagy hasn’t done yet. Even if the most extreme cases, a good secondary is key to winning games. They stop big TD’s and make athletic plays. Look at the 2017 Vikings vs Saints game, the rush defense versus the Saints was average being ranked 16th in rush yards allowed, there pass defense was ranked #15, so they were a middle team in general.
The passing game was on fire for Brees
Brees: 25/40, 284yds 3TDs and 2INT
Keenum 25/40 318yds 1TD, 1NT
If we looked at passings TD’s alone, who would win. The Saints right
Wrong, the Vikings did. Off one play that cost the game. The best secondary misses a tackle badly and let’s Stefon Diggs go for a TD. The Saints would have won this game and things would have went differently. But instead, a key collapse in the secondary causes them to lose.
Secondary is key to a pass defense. Rushing a passer may get to a quarterback's head. An experienced QB will be able to handle pressure, shown in the 20-3 choke in the 4th quarter. Did you know all the turnovers were from Kizer, a really bad rookie? None where from Rodgers, a confidence in pocket QB with a wide range of skill sets. The pass rush couldn’t stop in
The secondary can stop a big gain or force key turnovers on short passes. A dropped interception changes the game, even an interception shifts the game. Missed tackles shift games. In that Bears game, 2 secondary collapses happen. The Davante Adams joke that caused a mismatch and the 75 yd Randall Cobb TD after a miss tackle.
There is no denying that a better safety would have made those tackles and intercepted the ball, and that is what wins games.
Even in the Super Bowl, both teams had bad pass defenses each QB having 3 TD’s. In an equally bad secondary match, then it comes down to pass and run defense, where the excel at.
The Vikings have a better secondary so than the Bears, so as evidence proves, they will the division.
III. AT Weakness of Other NFC North
My opponents next argument is the weakness of these teams.
The Packers lost 33-21 in the PreSeason of this year before playing the Bears. The preseason doesn’t really matter unless a major injury happens, so really, anything can happen. They did not lose to them in Week 2, they tied the Minnesota Vikings. Since the PreSeason cannot be applied to how the PRO wins the NFC North clinch, this argument is invalid.
Rodgers is able to carry the team by himself. They even beat the Bears in this. When Rodgers was on the field for that game, he didn’t turn the ball over, however when Kizer turns the ball over 2 times causing the Bears to dominate. Rodgers changes the tempo of the game. He is like Khalil Mack to the Bears defense. Every around him needs to perform better than him. He was down 20-3 in the third and he still managed to pull off a win, proving as long as he is still in, the Bears will not find a way to stop him
Even so...Rodgers is having a phenomenal season and even better than he has had in the prime 2014-16 days. He is coming off a passer rating of 104.5 with 6 TDs and has a higher pass % than ever and also has nearly ¼ of his passer yards already in Week 3. Rodgers is not slowing down unless he gets injured, so I highly doubt he will get worse
He’s even showing sign of a prime Rodgers. With the Packers playing much easier teams, he will for sure have an MVP like season, even playing on practically 1 leg
Yes, the Vikings did lose a pretty bad game to the Bills, I am shocked myself. The offense completely shut down. However I don’t think that will define them in the long run. We saw many upsets in Week 3. The Bills also have an average pass defense that can get the job done. It isn’t awful, but it isn’t god tier.
Buffalo won because of the run defense. Without Dalvin Cook, the Vikings best rusher, they were unable to do anything. Buffalo also is #5 for run defense, so they aren’t a trash team is that stance. Also with Kelvin Benjamin and Josh Allen as a good passing duo, they aren’t a bad team in general. They just needed the right time to prance. They lost to some pretty good teams.
The Chargers have faced 2 top 5 teams and put up one hella of a fight with them. They are not an easy win for opponents. The Bills put up points against them too. The Bills have been playing bad and made decisions
Even the Ravens, they have a solid team to start. They lost to a 3-0 Bengals team and beat a solid Broncos team. They are not a bad team in any sense. They are 2nd in the division and right now contenders to win the division.
Remember, Buffalo also has a solid run game when McCoy is not hurt. The O-Line is workable and can make holes and McCoy is a power rush. This just proves when fully healthy, this is team is pretty good.
The Vikings also beat a healthy 49ers team, where they had a solid chance of having a wild card, of course, this is down the toilet with the Jimmy G ACL Tear, they were competitors. When Dalvin Cook comes back, Cousins will have a deadly receiving duo and a good RB with a Top 10 defense. Vikings can easily shut down the Bears defensively. Once Cook is back, momentum will return. The Vikings play Thursday Night vs the Rams. If they find a way to win, I believe this team is a force and for sure will clinch.
While very unlucky to win, they showed everyone Sunday Night that they can start stuff. And they aren’t a bad team at all. They are a consistent good offensive team that have good receivers and a good RB. They even have the best pass defense in the league right now, giving up the yards
However, they are dead last in run defense, which hasn’t affected them too much. They even have had good games against good teams. The Jets game was to forget. Even though they are a mildly good team, a brutal loss is unacceptable. They also lost a solid 49ers team AT THE TIME. They put up a good too and the 49ers had a good corner in Sherman, and they performed fairly well.
The Patriots game was to speak for themselves. It was beautiful. They stopped Brady and thumped in pass.
They are still contenders if they fix the broken run game.
I don’t fully understand this, as 14/16 games we play are the same team, but i’ll respond anyway as you only do a part of the schedule
For the Bears, I will give my in depth analysis on the teams provided
Bucs(FitzMagic did lose, however he made a WTF comeback that almost beat them. They won in NOLA and they are a (1-0) away)
Pats(it’s Tom Brady, he will torch their secondary)
Bills(agree, but don’t count out)
Rams(a tough team in no way will they win. The defense and offense is too much. 3 amazing receivers, this game might be less close than we think)
49ers(unless they find a solid qb to replace, this is an L)
Dolphins( I hope they win and they might. If Tannehill plays like this, he could beat us)
Seahawks(yea they are known to choke, but the Seahawks are dramatically worse this season I have them winning)
Rams(will get smoked)
Dolphins(pretty sure they will win, cmon, they are going to run out of steam, Bears play them when they are going to be shaky)
Rams(This could go either way, but they are going to lose if Cook is not healthy
Eagles(I don't know but I don’t think they play them soon. They were close last year. I think they will take the reins off an win with a good QB this time)
Saints(win here too, I think they can pull off a win vs a ehh saints d)
Panthers(win, too inconsistent)
And Lions same thing as you.
Overall the Packers have a schedule that they can win. I think it is possible that they pull of a division win. The Vikings can win all these games mentioned too
I thank my opponent, looking forward to round 2