Instigator / Pro
11
1495
rating
47
debates
48.94%
won
Topic
#736
In season 8 of Game of Thrones, Euron Greyjoy will probably betray Cercei Lannister
Status
Finished
The debate is finished. The distribution of the voting points and the winner are presented below.
Winner & statistics
After 2 votes and with 3 points ahead, the winner is...
oromagi
Parameters
- Publication date
- Last updated date
- Type
- Standard
- Number of rounds
- 3
- Time for argument
- Three days
- Max argument characters
- 30,000
- Voting period
- One week
- Point system
- Multiple criterions
- Voting system
- Open
Contender / Con
14
1922
rating
117
debates
97.44%
won
Description
No information
Round 1
Euron stated from the beginning that the queen he wanted was Danaerys, not Cercei.
Euron had a horn in the books which was capable of controlling dragons, if this is implemented in the show it supports my claim by virtue of the fact that he has an end game plan at play wherein Cercei does not fit into the picture. At that point it would be clear he is only using Cercei to get at Dany's dragons and the iron throne.
Euron wants to be in control, and if he sticks with Cercei and doesn't somehow get rid of her she will continue to sit on the iron throne and be the primary ruling figure.
Thanks, Sparrow, for a Thrones debate in honor of the arrival of Winter.
For readers unfamiliar with Game of Thrones, Euron Greyjoy is a minor character, who killed his brother, a King and father to two more major characters. Euron usurped that King's office, the Salt Throne. There is no reason to suppose Pro or Con has access to special sources of information. We are both speculating about the potential of one plot development, drawing from the HBO television series and to the a lesser extent, the book series written by George R. R. Martin.
The BoP is clearly on Pro. Pro asserts a probability without any compelling warrant.
Euron stated from the beginning that the queen he wanted was Danaerys, not Cercei.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fQqbgycLRg
Well, sure and who can blame him but Danaerys would never accept Euron as consort.
1. Euron is of insufficient stature to consort with the Dragon Queen.
2. Euron objectifies women but the Dragon Queen mostly smites men who objectify women.
3. Euron is a declared enemy of Daenerys Targaryan. Euron has killed many important allies of the Dragon Queen and destroyed many of the ships precious to the Dragon Queen's campaign.
Since Danaerys is in no way a realistic objective for Euron, Euron's sexual interest in Daenerys does not increase the probability that Euron will betray the Lannister cause.
Euron had a horn in the books which was capable of controlling dragons, if this is implemented in the show it supports my claim by virtue of the fact that he has an end game plan at play wherein Cercei does not fit into the picture. At that point it would be clear he is only using Cercei to get at Dany's dragons and the iron throne.
1. If we pay attention to the YouTube video, we should note that even the books have not established that Euron's horn is capable of controlling dragons. So far, the books have only established that the horn kills any blower. Euron's magician has inferred such a capability from the artifact's name "Dragonbinder" but the magician's proposition is entirely untested, even in the books. Pro's point is supposition upon supposition upon supposition and in the book series, magicians are often proved incompetent and wrong.
2. Unfamiliar readers might not know that the television series varies dramatically from the book series. Many, many plot elements supplied by the books are ignored or resolved in ways designed to surprise the book readers. By itself, the information that some narrative element is found in the book does nothing to increase the probability that narrative will resolve similarly in the TV series.
3. The YouTube vid submitted as evidence speculates about the introduction of the Dragonbinder horn in Season 7, not the present and final season, Season 8. You don't have to be a fan of the series to understand that the introduction of some new, powerful, magic artifact that completely reverses the narrative in the last episodes of the series would offer too blatant a MacGuffin for fans to endure. Since the writers of the TV series have so far proved fairly savvy about which book elements will be best enjoyed en masse and which book elements are best set aside, Con argues against the probability the writers of the TV series would commit such a mistake.
Euron wants to be in control, and if he sticks with Cercei and doesn't somehow get rid of her she will continue to sit on the iron throne and be the primary ruling figure.
Yeah, but Cercei is one the series' two primary antagonists (the other being the Night King). No well told fantasy lets some late-arriving minor character take out the primary antagonist, right? Euron is best understood as Cercei's sidekick and in this season, Euron will almost certainly be eliminated by a sidekick on the protagonist side: Yara and Theon, Euron's niece and nephew are the most likely candidates since they have suffered the most harm by Euron and also stand enjoy the greatest benefit, the Salt Throne.
The most likely outcome will be that Cercei will die according to prophesy, “You’ll be queen, for a time. Then comes another, younger, more beautiful, to cast you down and take all you hold dear.” This may be Danaerys but given that Arya Stark has been promising to kill Cercei for all 8 seasons and for all 8 season has been developing the assassin's skills necessary to take out a Queen as treacherous as Cersei, I expect Arya is the likliest candidate to end Cercei's life and reign.
I look forward to Pro's response.
Round 2
Well, sure and who can blame him but Danaerys would never accept Euron as consort.1. Euron is of insufficient stature to consort with the Dragon Queen.2. Euron objectifies women but the Dragon Queen mostly smites men who objectify women.3. Euron is a declared enemy of Daenerys Targaryan. Euron has killed many important allies of the Dragon Queen and destroyed many of the ships precious to the Dragon Queen's campaign
She doesn't need to accept him for him to betray Cercei. Euron clearly believes he has a chance and she fits into his overall plan more so than Cercei according to his own words.
1. If Euron were to betray Cercei and take the iron throne he would then have sufficient stature.
2. Euron does not need to survive the end game or be accepted by Dany in order to make an attempt that involves betraying Cercei. He does not even need to succeed against Cercei to have betrayed her.
3. Euron appealed to Cercei through leverage, not through friendship or affection. There is no reason it would be any different with Dany and once again she was the one he was after from the beginning according to his own words. He would not aim so high without some kind of plan, which suggests he has something up his sleeve which has not yet been revealed on the show.
As for the Dragonbinder, it is true that this is not something that has been established in the show and could very well make no appearance in the show. That however is not a nail in the coffin, or indeed even a plank of it. It is essentially just a potential plot device which could be used to make Euron a bigger threat, or to eliminate him with a bang if the horn fails him. He still has made it clear he wants Dany primarily, not Cercei. He also still could betray Cercei without actually succeeding in anything he attempts, which will probably be the case since he has no real loyalty to Cercei but is not truly a main character as you pointed out.
Yeah, but Cercei is one the series' two primary antagonists (the other being the Night King). No well told fantasy lets some late-arriving minor character take out the primary antagonist, right?
You are somewhat correct about the latter statement but it could be defied, especially in a series like GOT where Rob Stark can be offed by some elderly pedophile and Eddard Stark can be offed by an inbred pre-teen who was defeated by a little girl and a puppy. I never actually expected Euron to take over as a primary antagonist, only to attempt to elevate his own position by betraying Cercei before being killed. He will almost definitely fail ultimately and never reach primary antagonist status, but he will also almost definitely try.
Thanks, Sparrow, I am enjoying this discussion.
Let's remind readers at this point that Pro's standard of evidence is "probably" not "possibly."
1 : supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption but not proof a probable hypothesis [1]
In the second round, readers should note that Pro's arguments exclusively appeal to possibility rather than probability. Con will concede that many surprising outcomes are possible in a fictional TV show but those are not the terms of our discussion. What makes Pro's theory more probable than some other surprising outcome? Pro has not given us anything particularly persuasive in answer.
Danaerys
In the first round Pro argued that Euron Greyjoy had a plan to wed Queen Danaerys as evidence that Euron would betray Queen Cercei, his present consort. I countered that Euron never had a chance at Danaerys for reasons of stature (minor king), temperament (objectification of women), and fortune (Danaerys & Euron have resolved as enemies since Euron's declared plan).
Pro now argues that Euron doesn't need Danaerys to betray Cercei which, while true, undermines Pro's supporting argument( although Pro also backtracks on this by suggesting that Euron may yet produce some means of leverage over Danaerys, perhaps by taking the Iron Throne himself).
Pro and Con agree that Euron's interest in Danaerys is irrelevant to the Euron's capacity for betrayal, so let's throw out Pro's first argument "Euron wanted Danaerys, not Cercei."
Dragonbinder
In R2, Pro concedes that the late appearance of a Dragon-controlling artifact is not probable, only possible: "could very well make no appearance in the show. That however is not a nail in the coffin."
Pro and Con agree that Dragonbinder is not likely to appear in the TV show, so let's throw out Pro's second argument "Euron might have a horn that controls dragons," as possible but not probable.
Euron's ambition
Pro argued that Euron is sufficiently ambitious to stage a coup and assume the Iron Throne himself. I countered that this would make for terrible story-telling. Queen Cercei Lannister has been the proximate or real power behind the Iron Throne for a full seven seasons. To substitute a late-comer bad guy at the top of the antagonists power base this late in the game would make for a dissatisfying climax.
Pro concedes "You are somewhat correct, " but Pro argues that surprising plot twists are commonplace on Game of Thrones. While true, Pro is arguing at possibility here, not probability. The ambitions of a minor evil character are not likely to derail the ambitions of a major evil character.
Pro adds that Euron need not succeed at betrayal or indeed survive an attempted betrayal in order for Pro's statement to prove out. That's so, but without Euron, Cercei loses her navy and the means to transport the Golden Company from Essos which makes Cercei less of a threat in the last few episodes. Doesn't the villain typically increase in power and ability just before the climax? Crippling Cercei's power before any of our heroes have a chance to be threatened by her at maximum would make for a less suspenseful narrative.
I hope readers will agree that all three of Pro's R1 arguments have now been sufficiently refuted/conceded to deny Euron's betrayal as any likely or "probable" plot point.
A few extra arguments towards my case:
Euron's character did not appear in Episode 2 (aired last night) at all....if the writers of this series were planning some major reversal or plot point from Euron's character, wouldn't the principles of good narrative demand some upkeep on Euron's character this week? [2]
Cercei is clearly on the lookout for betrayal. Let's remember that Euron pretended to abandon Cercei when he learned the truth of the army of the dead but we learn later it's a ruse to cover Euron's transport to and from Essos. [3] Euron must be cognizant of the threat Cercei poses to his life and it would seem inconsistent with Euron's character to roll the dice with some conspiracy when the odds would be so clearly stacked against him, whatever his true ambition.
Euron alone on the Iron Throne without a Lannister support system is far weaker than Euro as present consort to Cercei. Euron must be aware of this so would it be likely for Euron to choose total authority over much less power or preserve present shared authority over far more power? Which state is more likely to satisfy Euron's ambition? I'd argue the latter.
Theon's character has substantially improved in stature and likability over the last few episodes. If Theon survives the army of the dead (which seems like all of next week's episode), he stands to be the likeliest protagonist to resolve Euron's story, not Cercei. If Theon dies next week, look to Yara as the next likeliest protagonist to resolve Euron's story, again not Cercei.
Round 3
Pro now argues that Euron doesn't need Danaerys to betray Cercei which, while true, undermines Pro's supporting argument( although Pro also backtracks on this by suggesting that Euron may yet produce some means of leverage over Danaerys, perhaps by taking the Iron Throne himself).
Now you are misinterpreting and/or misrepresenting what I said. If Euron attempts (which is his stated plan) but fails to get with Dany, he still will have betrayed Cercei. Therefor he does not need to actually succeed in his attempts to have betrayed Cercei. I haven't backtracked on anything.
and Con agree that Dragonbinder is not likely to appear in the TV show, so let's throw out Pro's second argument "Euron might have a horn that controls dragons," as possible but not probable.
That one is not so clear cut, because who knows what they might do. I will give you this, it is not definitively "probable" but the possibility of it is one more factor making it probable that Euron will betray Cercei in general.
Pro argued that Euron is sufficiently ambitious to stage a coup and assume the Iron Throne himself. I countered that this would make for terrible story-telling. Queen Cercei Lannister has been the proximate or real power behind the Iron Throne for a full seven seasons. To substitute a late-comer bad guy at the top of the antagonists power base this late in the game would make for a dissatisfying climax.
The current writers are not as proficient as George RR Martin by any means, and have clearly tried to mimic his unpredictable story telling. There is no reason to assume that scenario is unlikely because it is "terrible story-telling". They are perfectly likely to defy that sentiment in the name of highly unexpected plot twists such as "Euron kills Cercei then dragon-binds Drogon then Jon Snow faces him in a sword fight while Clegane Bowl takes place simultaneously and Dany dies in child-birth and then Bran becomes the Night King and wargs into Drogon and makes him eat Euron right before he's about to kill Jon and then Sansa has sex with Ghost and has wolf-babies".
Okay, maybe that one wasn't so likely, but you get what I mean. They could very well do things that don't work that well in the name of crazy plot twists.
The ambitions of a minor evil character are not likely to derail the ambitions of a major evil character.
There is really no reason to assume that, and even if he doesn't succeed in derailing her he is very, very likely to try or to at least betray her on some level even if it is not meant to derail her because number one it is in his nature and number two his own stated goals have nothing to do with being loyal to Cercei.
without Euron, Cercei loses her navy and the means to transport the Golden Company from Essos which makes Cercei less of a threat in the last few episodes. Doesn't the villain typically increase in power and ability just before the climax?
Typically yes, but the true Arch-Villain is the Night King and almost nothing in GOT is typical to begin with. Cercei is relying on Euron as you have just pointed out, they are both just using each other. Euron is the one with more power to gain by betraying Cercei, whereas she is in a position where she has to rely on him to maintain her position.
Euron's character did not appear in Episode 2 (aired last night) at all....if the writers of this series were planning some major reversal or plot point from Euron's character, wouldn't the principles of good narrative demand some upkeep on Euron's character this week? [2]
Cercei didn't appear in that episode either.
Euron must be cognizant of the threat Cercei poses to his life and it would seem inconsistent with Euron's character to roll the dice with some conspiracy when the odds would be so clearly stacked against him, whatever his true ambition.
Some of the main characteristics of Euron are arrogance and belligerence. The type of arrogance and belligerence that makes you do ballsy or even reckless things.
Euron alone on the Iron Throne without a Lannister support system is far weaker than Euro as present consort to Cercei. Euron must be aware of this so would it be likely for Euron to choose total authority over much less power or preserve present shared authority over far more power? Which state is more likely to satisfy Euron's ambition? I'd argue the latter.
Why does Euron want to marry the queen? So he can be the king. I agree that if he actually did become the primary monarch and a primary antagonist it might be stupid, but I don't think it's probable that he will. I only think it's probable that he will try. Cercei wears the pants in their relationship, she is the one on the iron throne. Do you think Euron wants to be Cercei's lapdog forever?
Theon's character has substantially improved in stature and likability over the last few episodes. If Theon survives the army of the dead (which seems like all of next week's episode), he stands to be the likeliest protagonist to resolve Euron's story, not Cercei. If Theon dies next week, look to Yara as the next likeliest protagonist to resolve Euron's story, again not Cercei.
One of them could still kill him even if he betrays Cercei.
Thanks Sparrow, this was fun
Let's remind readers one more time that Pro's standard of evidence is "probably" not "possibly." That is, supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption.
Now you are misinterpreting and/or misrepresenting what I said. If Euron attempts (which is his stated plan) but fails to get with Dany, he still will have betrayed Cercei. Therefor he does not need to actually succeed in his attempts to have betrayed Cercei. I haven't backtracked on anything.
Perhaps you're right in as much "backtrack" implies an intentional reversal & I have no evidence that the inconsistency is intentional.
R1: "Euron wanted Danaerys, not Cercei." (I argue Danaerys is off the table: stature, temperament, enmity)
R2A: "Euron doesn't need acceptance from Danaerys in order to betray Cercei" (I agree)
R2B: "Euron might achieve acceptance from Danaerys by betraying Cercei, gaining the iron throne and therefore stature and leverage over Danaerys" (disagree, temperment and enmity are unrefuted)
R3: "Any attempt by Euron to achieve acceptance from Danaerys amounts to betrayal"
My read is that R2A contradicts R1, R2B and R3. If Euron doesn't need Danaerys to betray Cercei isn't that the statement most relevant to the question of betrayal? If Pro means that Euron might betray for multiple reasons, one of which could be (but need not be) compelling the Dragon Queen to boudoir then those other reasons are unstated. Why else might Euron betray?
Now, let's go back and dispose of Pro's first argument: Euron wants Danaerys.
R1: Euron stated from the beginning that the queen he wanted was Danaerys, not Cercei.
I agree that if he actually did become the primary monarch and a primary antagonist it might be stupid, but I don't think it's probable that he will. I only think it's probable that he will try.
We agree that Eurnaerys is never going to happen. What you're saying is that Euron will betray Cercei but fail and as Cercei is extracting some horrible vengeance like feeding Euron his genitals he'll gently whisper, "I did it all for Danaerys." Really? He's been in the same room for her one time for 5 minutes. I think that's just as stupid a resolution as if he succeeded.
Let's go back to Pro's supporting evidence, the YouTube clip from Season 6:
Euron: Across the sea there is a person who hates the Great Lords of Westeros just as much as we do. Someone with a large army, 3 large dragons, and no husband. I'm going to gallivant right over and give it to Danaerys Targaryen along with my big cock.
Yara: You're going to seduce the Dragon Queen?
Euron: I'm not going to seduce her. The Iron Fleet will seduce her and together we're going to take the Seven Kingdoms.
Pro is projecting that this is Euron's plan in Season 8, essentially unchanged. But none of Euron's conditions remain true.
Danaerys is now on the side of the Great Lords of Westeros and so is Euron. Danaerys' army is shrinking fast, she's down to two large dragons and she consorts with the King in the North. Doesn't it seem more likely that Euron's changed conditions would effect a change in motivation? and the only reason we viewers haven't been advised of Euron's change in motivation is that he's too minor an evil character to care about that much?
Con maintains that the whole Euron-Danaerys claim is quite unlikely because no story has been developed and any new plot element along those lines at this point in the narrative would be just as Pro has said, stupid. That Euron once wanted Danaerys in no way impacts the probability that Euron will betray Cercei. This argument remains irrelevant.
That one is not so clear cut, because who knows what they might do. I will give you this, it is not definitively "probable" but the possibility of it is one more factor making it probable that Euron will betray Cercei in general.
I am going to read "Definitely not probable" as a concession. Pro's second argument, Euron might have a magic horn, is conceded.
The current writers are not as proficient as George RR Martin by any means, and have clearly tried to mimic his unpredictable story telling. There is no reason to assume that scenario is unlikely because it is "terrible story-telling".They are perfectly likely to defy that sentiment in the name of highly unexpected plot twists such as "Euron kills Cercei then dragon-binds Drogon then Jon Snow faces him in a sword fight while Clegane Bowl takes place simultaneously and Dany dies in child-birth and then Bran becomes the Night King and wargs into Drogon and makes him eat Euron right before he's about to kill Jon and then Sansa has sex with Ghost and has wolf-babies".
Okay, maybe that one wasn't so likely, but you get what I mean. They could very well do things that don't work that well in the name of crazy plot twists.
The current writers consult Martin on every episode although he stopped writing scripts after Season 4. [1] So the claim of mimicry is unfounded- Martin is current collaborator in the telling of this story. Con does rule out sudden excursions into "terrible story-telling" because Game of Thrones has an established track record of excellent story telling: Game of Thrones holds the record highest number of Emmys for a TV show. [2]
Typically yes, but the true Arch-Villain is the Night King and almost nothing in GOT is typical to begin with. Cercei is relying on Euron as you have just pointed out, they are both just using each other. Euron is the one with more power to gain by betraying Cercei, whereas she is in a position where she has to rely on him to maintain her position.
What power would Euron gain by betraying Cercei? Euron has no legitimate claim to the throne. If Euron took out Cercei he would certainly lose all Lannister support, which means he loses the Iron Bank of Braavos, which means he loses the Golden Company of Essos. The King's Guard has no reason to be loyal to Euron. The people of King's Landing have no reason to be loyal to Euron- he's not even the right religion. As pointed out above, betraying Cercei makes Euron weaker not stronger and Euron is not the type of character to willingly surrender power.
Euron's character did not appear in Episode 2 (aired last night) at all....if the writers of this series were planning some major reversal or plot point from Euron's character, wouldn't the principles of good narrative demand some upkeep on Euron's character this week? [2]Cercei didn't appear in that episode either.
Well, there you go- more evidence. If the writers are preparing for some big Euron betrays Cercei scene, they have failed to offer any prequel or foreshadow of the event.
Some of the main characteristics of Euron are arrogance and belligerence. The type of arrogance and belligerence that makes you do ballsy or even reckless things.
But Euron is also deeply self interested. Euron is not likely to take an action that will weaken his power and position.
Why does Euron want to marry the queen? So he can be the king. I agree that if he actually did become the primary monarch and a primary antagonist it might be stupid, but I don't think it's probable that he will. I only think it's probable that he will try. Cercei wears the pants in their relationship, she is the one on the iron throne. Do you think Euron wants to be Cercei's lapdog forever?
As said before, if Euron overthrows Cercei, few will acknowledge his legitimacy as king. Euron would likely choose to share with much power rather than dominate with little power.
CONCLUSION
Pro has asserted that Euron will probably betray Cercei. The standard of probability has been shown to be unproven presumption. Pro has offered nothing to suggest that we best presume Euron will betray Cercei.
Pro gave us three supporting arguments:
Euron wanted Danaerys, not Cercei. Pro has stated that Danaerys is Euron's primary motivation for betrayal but that's based on statements Euron made long ago. As the series has progressed, Euron and Danaerys's stories never really intertwined, so Con argues that Danaerys is irrelevent to Euron's peresent motivations.
Pro argued that Euron might have a magic horn but concedes that this is not probable, we best not presume that magic artifact will appear in the last season.
Pro argued that Euron wants power. Con has shown that betraying Cercei results in less power for Euron, not more.
Pro has not met the threshold of presumption: we readers have not been given any reason that a betrayal by Euron is any more likely than not.
Pro's thesis stands unproven.
Thanks again for the debate, Sparrow and thanks to the voters for voting CON.
Not a great debate or anything but some people refrained from reading this then that have likely since caught up- I think the debate finished around the third or second to last episode.
What would be a good GoT subject now that the series is complete?
Bummer...
yes! minor but definite spoilers. see Comment #1.
I haven't read this. Does it contain spoilers? I haven't seen any of season 8 yet...and it's KILLING me, but I don't want to read this if there are spoilers, either.
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Vote Reported: Wrick-It-Ralph // Mod Action: Removed
Points awarded: 3 points to con
RFD: This was mostly gibberish to my ears. I'm going with con because his stuff ultimately seems more plausible..... I think.
Reason for mod action: The voter fails to meet the standards set forth by the COC here: https://www.debateart.com/rules
The argument point is not sufficient. In order to award argument points, a voter must explicitly, and in the text of their RFD, perform the following tasks:
Survey the main arguments and counterarguments presented in the debate
Weigh those arguments against each other (or explain why certain arguments need not be weighed based on what transpired within the debate itself)
Explain how, through the process of weighing, they arrived at their voting decision with regard to assigning argument points
Weighing entails analyzing how the relative strength of one argument or set of arguments outweighed (that is, out-impacted) and/or precluded another argument or set of arguments. Weighing requires analyzing and situating arguments and counterarguments within the context of the debate as a whole.
They do none of these things
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We might note that there are now a few minor Season 8 spoilers in the text of this debate, for folks who might harbor such concern.