Recycled Roles Mafia V2 Day Phase 3

Author: Lunatic

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whiteflame
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Alright, finally got some time to sit down and catch up. Here are my thoughts so far.

I think I necessarily should be in the PoE pool. I'd sus my claim too, and since it's not confirmable unless the person I'm connected with is NK'd, I don't blame anyone for thinking I'm a potential lynch.

That being said, I've apparently been RB'd (I didn't get notified, but Casey Tracked him to me) during NP2, and Casey Tracked me NP1 and found that I didn't move. I can be scum and both of those things can still be true, but that also means we have more information on me than anyone unless we're sussing one or both of their claims. I have no reason to sus Casey at this point based on his claim and results, though I am sussing Earth at this point. The JK in particular came off as strange to use flippantly on a player with no claimed role up to that point, though I understand the RB since he probably susses me.

We have every reason to believe Savant is the Doc, since the NK was prevented last DP, so he's effectively confirmed town. JoeBob demonstrated his role, so he's confirmed town.

That just leaves Moozer who, like me, has a role that is currently unconfirmable. He has also said a few things that just don't make sense. He said it was plausible that he was JK'd last DP, despite only receiving "confirmed" in response to his submission. He has also now said twice that he selected Savant as the likeliest person to be lynched. As someone who claimed to be "hard confirmable" in DP1 and then claimed Doc in DP2 after preventing the NK, I don't get either of these choices. It's not a "jerk move," it's hedging his bets on someone who is not at all likely to be lynched two NPs in a row.

Like I said last DP, I'm fine with being lynched for PoE, but it's between Earth and Moozer for me. We're at 4-2, so this might be the time to consider a VTNL. I'm not sure why some of you are saying that someone will die at random if we do - that was only the case when JoeBob's Gladiator was active. Nothing in the DP1 OP or any subsequent OP has said anything about VTNLs resulting in a random person dying. I've messaged Luna just in case, but considering it could reduce PoE and give us more information during the NP (not to mention give Savant a chance to prevent the NK as well), this might be our best option.
Moozer325
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Here’s my reasoning for Savant.

1. He claimed to have stopped the NK on NP1, but that could also have been Earth right? I still think it is plausible that I just wasn’t notified of the roleblock. 

2. My PoE has it down to Me, Savant, Earth and WF. I would say that instead of me and Earth being in opposition, I would have it be Earth and Savant. One of them stopped the NK, but it doesn’t confirm Savant, and could be either. 

So I’m fine lunching me or Whiteflame based on the PoE, but I don’t think it’s good to confirm Savant when I technically could also be Earth. I might have missed something, so tell me if did.
Earth
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Savant is essentially cleared town. I highly doubt he is scum. Even you had to have seen how basically no one thought Savant is scum, and you never pushed hard for his lynch.
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@Earth
Can you remind me what he claimed for his NP1 action?

Savant
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@Earth
@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
@Moozer325
Whiteflame not moving on day 1 definitely helps his case. However, he's still my top scum read. Here's why:

1. Note that we haven't seen scum do anything yet other than night kills, so they likely have a 1x role or a day role. Or Whiteflame is the Janitor and couldn't visit anyone n1 because no one was killed, then couldn't visit anyone n2 because he was role blocked.
2. We haven't lynched scum yet, which means there's likely a very skilled player on the scum team. Whiteflame is the most experienced player left.
3. His message is what I would expect him to post as scum. This is mostly intuition from playing with him as scum. His tone is the same as scum and town, but as scum, he doesn't have a choice: he has to put the spotlight on other players as suspicious and give us a reason not to suspect him as quickly as possible. That's exactly what his first message is doing. As town, he might have focused his message on something else like the one player he thought was most suspicious. Idk if this is making sense, but looking at the message just reminds me of exactly how he played as scum. It's also the type of argument that would appeal to this crowd: we're mostly new so he's relying on us going "oh, that seems logical" and buying the rest of what he says. Accusing 2 people instead of 1 would also be a good move for scum. Narrow enough that it gets attention on those people but it also buys whiteflame more time since it allows for 2 mislynches before attention gets directed back to him.
4. Pie died instead of me, when I clearly have the more powerful role and scum knew I was defenseless. Pie was heavily sussing whiteflame for his role claim before he died, and nobody else has brought that up. So who gains the most from Pie's death? Whiteflame, obviously. Scum would have benefitted most by getting rid of the doctor, but in WF's case, he needed to get rid of Pie to avoid getting lynched.

Moozer's actions don't really make sense to me, but his strategy isn't super ideal for scum or town, so it doesn't necessarily make him one or the other. We've mislynched a lot of people for just picking bad strategies, and they're usually town.
Savant
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Maybe it's Casey and Whiteflame, and Casey was used to clear WF night 1. Note how Casey "confirmed" his role based on what Earth said he did. Casey should be a bigger scum read than Earth right now because he revealed his hand second, but WF defended Casey.

But Moozer is still a possibility.
Savant
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Also WF said that he didn't get notified when Earth rbed him, which is a great way to sus Earth but give WF plausible deniability later. Also would Earth really tell the truth about who he visited if he was scum? If so, pretty lucky he had a role where he could visit someone without killing them.

The lack of notification susses WF, not Earth.
Casey_Risk
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Can't say too much til my break, but I'm thinking it's WF and Moozer. I'll explain later. 
Earth
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WF has been acting fairly scummy all game and even his role is odd, if you take Pie's word at face value. Moozer is either playing against his win con or is scum if he is chomping at the bit trying to get Savant lynched. 
Earth
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@Casey_Risk
I think so too.
Savant
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@Earth
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If whiteflame flips town and we all survive the night, we're still in a good position because we now know his deductions are extremely trustworthy. If he's scum, the other scum is probably Casey "Everybody say what they did tonight so I can pretend I tracked you" Risk.
Savant
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Moozer is weird but a possible scum too. I'd say it's between those three.
whiteflame
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@Savant
Alright, let's talk about these.

1. I don't really understand the first of these scenarios. Maybe Luna just does this differently, but my experience with failed NKs is that even unsuccessful NKs register as visits. But yes, if I had a role I could use during the NP, the RB would have prevented me from using it.

2. So we lynched Austin DP1 because of inactivity, and we lynched Barney last DP because JoeBob made himself and Barney the only choices, so... that somehow means there's a skilled player on the scum team? It doesn't seem like scum have had much of a role to play in either lynch aside from being on those wagons. And given that you admitted to not being able to use your role during NP2, I don't buy that scum are even likely to have a skilled player on their team, since you would have been the obvious target.

3. I don't get this one either. There are two scum left in the game. I sussed both of the players I think are on that scum team. I also said that eliminating me for PoE probably makes as much sense as eliminating either of them. If you want to get rid of me first, that's fine, but it puts the pressure on you to use your role correctly during this NP.

4. This is just WIFOM. Scum have every reason to misdirect attention and killing Pie obviously makes me look sus since he was sussing me. I understand trying to read the NK this way, but given that I was already pretty certain I'd be the lynch this DP (and frankly, I still suspect I will be), I don't know what I'd stand to gain by NKing him.
Savant
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@Earth
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even unsuccessful NKs register as visits
But would the janitor visit if the NK fails? That's what I'm doubting.

So we lynched Austin DP1 because of inactivity, and we lynched Barney last DP because JoeBob made himself and Barney the only choices, so... that somehow means there's a skilled player on the scum team?
I caught this after posting, and it does ease pressure on you a bit. But you also have to admit we spent both of those days not really agreeing on a likely scum, and as I look back through your posts, you haven't been super active in finding them until now when you need someone else to take the spotlight. Since you are a logical scum player, I fully suspect you would latch onto the legitimate mistake I made in my assessment and focus on that. (You might do that as town, but you might also take a more charitable interpretation of what I said.) In other words, you might act this way as town, but you would definitely act this way as scum.

I don't get this one either. There are two scum left in the game. I sussed both of the players I think are on that scum team. I also said that eliminating me for PoE probably makes as much sense as eliminating either of them.
I admitted this one is mostly intuition. I do think you'd sus people and defend yourself as town, but you might also focus on one and then the other. As scum, I think you would jump the gun and try and put the spotlight on someone else as soon as possible.

This is just WIFOM. Scum have every reason to misdirect attention and killing Pie obviously makes me look sus
It is WIFOM; I fully admit that. However, I believe that I know you well enough by now to know you would play it safe and kill the person sussing you. Scum absolutely have to make bold moves to win.

I've also noticed that Whiteflame asks rhetorical questions as both town and scum, but they tend to be more aggressive as scum and more confident/cocky as town. But he's good, so it's sometimes hard to parse.
Savant
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@Earth
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Oh, also don't think I didn't notice that WF posted that response to me like less than a minute after coming online. Which means he'd been offline writing it and preparing to come online and post it.
Earth
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@whiteflame
4. This is just WIFOM. Scum have every reason to misdirect attention and killing Pie obviously makes me look sus since he was sussing me. I understand trying to read the NK this way, but given that I was already pretty certain I'd be the lynch this DP (and frankly, I still suspect I will be), I don't know what I'd stand to gain by NKing him.
What exactly is your point again? I feel like WIFOMing in a time like this is scummy.
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@Savant
I didn't really notice, but that's big if true.

JoeBob
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@Savant
Which means he'd been offline writing it and preparing to come online and post it.
I’ve been watching on the side and seeing what’s going on, but that’s pushing me over the edge.

Vtl Whiteflame
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@whiteflame
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I'm gonna give him one more chance to respond, but he's probably going to be the lynch today.
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@whiteflame
oh yea, forgot to mention
Earth
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I'm thinking more and more WF should be the lynch as well. 

VTL Whiteflame
whiteflame
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@Savant
But would the janitor visit if the NK fails? That's what I'm doubting.
The NK triggers the visit. The Janitor doesn’t visit independently of it, so yes, that should trigger a visit.

you haven't been super active in finding them until now when you need someone else to take the spotlight.
I’ve been calling out Moozer since he claimed last DP. I would have said he was my scumread at the time, but considering we weren’t able to vote anyone else, I waited until this DP to suggest him as a vote. I’ll admit it took me a bit to find issues with Earth.

In other words, you might act this way as town, but you would definitely act this way as scum.
I mean, you’re giving me a list of reasons to sus me. Responding by finding leaps of logic kind of comes with the territory, but fine, this a gut read.

As scum, I think you would jump the gun and try and put the spotlight on someone else as soon as possible.
I think that would make me more likely to target one player, but again, gut read. Can’t blame you for making it.

Scum absolutely have to make bold moves to win.
Don’t know if I agree that this was a bold move, but fine. Seems like another gut read.

Oh, also don't think I didn't notice that WF posted that response to me like less than a minute after coming online. Which means he'd been offline writing it and preparing to come online and post it.
So I’m just going to straight up say this is wrong. I spent a good 20 minutes on this with the DP open and my profile online after checking your message to me. I didn’t just write this elsewhere and post it.

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@Earth
@Savant
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Doesn’t seem like there’s anything else I could say at this point. Like I said before, I think the VTNL makes the most sense this DP, but it doesn’t seem like anyone’s considering it for some reason. I made this mistake a few games back with Vader, don’t think we should make it now. I’m going to call out WIFOM where I see it, so if that makes me scummy, so be it.
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@whiteflame
I think the VTNL makes the most sense this DP, but it doesn’t seem like anyone’s considering it for some reason.
we would have to guess the scum correctly both times in a row if we VTNL today
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@JoeBob
we would have to guess the scum correctly both times in a row if we VTNL today
You have to guess correctly both times in a row if you don’t VTNL, or rely on Savant to protect the game right person.
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@whiteflame
A lot going on here and I have limited time to chat. I think one point in favor of WF being scum is trying to convince us that we can vtnl today, despite what I had Luna clarify right at the start of DP1. That, and he said he PM'ed Luna instead of tagging him in this thread. Maybe a way that he could lie to us all and make us falsely believe we could no-lynch? Maybe I'm reading too deep into it, but WF townread me for my early attempt to clarify how lynching works this game.

I sus Moozer because his actions don't really make much sense to me, and when suspicion was thrown his way, he was just like "yeah, lynch me"  on a MYLO round, which is anti-town behavior. 

Just so we're all clear here: Lunatic, if we vtnl, will someone be lynched at random? 
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@Lunatic
Forgot to tag Luna 
Savant
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@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
@Moozer325
I’m just going to straight up say this is wrong. I spent a good 20 minutes on this with the DP open and my profile online after checking your message to me.
No way this is true...you posted much quicker than that. This message was pretty quick too.

VTL Whiteflame

Regardless of how this lands, I'm fairly confident I'll be able to track down the remaining scum tomorrow. Plus we still have Barney's votes.
Savant
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Unvote
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@Lunatic
Want to make sure vtnl isn't an option before I vote actually. Luna, is vtnl allowed or will it result in a random lynch?