Clash Of Clans Mafia Day Phase 1

Author: Lunatic

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#421
ILikePie5
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@Barney
I will tomorrow.

I don’t see it  as yet in towns best interest to do a mass full claim. For one thing, the mystery messes with scum.
It’s not a mass claim. You’d only be the third person to full claim.
#422
whiteflame
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I'm catching up and looks like it might take me a while. I'll give responses tonight.
#423
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@ILikePie5
Why?
Because he is a good little capitalist boy that will not fall for your commie nonsense.
#424
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@whiteflame
I guess it's probably time to be fully transparent even if it ruins the utility of your role. 
#425
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@Mharman
My mind doesn't think their defenses are tenable, but my gut hates the prospect of lynching someone who says they can self-confirm and someone who is a claimed an un-CC'd cop.
Why is your gut being more rational than your mind here? A few games ago, I was an un-cc'd cop, and it's because I was actually the cop. What reason would you even have to suspect us, separately from not being 100% convinced by these claims? Why would you rationally want to lynch an un-cc'd cop or a confirmable player day 1? It makes no sense.

This explanation seems pretty scummy, ngl. You're advocating for lynching two bad lynch prospects on day 1, and your explanation about your gut and mind still doesn't make much sense.
#426
Savant
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@whiteflame
@WyIted
I guess it's probably time to be fully transparent even if it ruins the utility of your role. 
No, it is not. Only a negative IQ town would lynch whiteflame right now or demand that he give more information to scum.

Whiteflame, hold out. It's not like the town is going to lynch you because you keep quiet.
#427
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
Information. I think a lack of a conclusion to this DP would be harmful to us. We’d fail to get the information from a lynch meanwhile mafia will have wiped a townie out of the pool. Sure, we’ll have night actions to look at, but mafia will have just used their own to help with their agenda. It won’t be much but a new flavor to the same discussions.

Barring something like a 3v1 MYLO, if I have the chance to lynch mafia at the risk of mislynching town, I will take it. Ideally we’d see mafia get lynched this DP so that we have their numbers reduced along with the information to along with it, but if we lynch and are wrong, at least we didn’t stand there and do nothing while the scum team dictates the flow of the game.

Sure, town has PRs they can use in the night and mafia has things they can say during the day. But the fact remains that town is strongest playing around the day phase and mafia is strongest playing around the night phase. Let’s play to our strengths.
#428
whiteflame
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The bases for sussing me that I'm seeing haven't changed much. I think the issues with my justification are a balance of trying to read what Luna would and wouldn't do with the role, but in a game where there is no theme split, I can understand why there would be so much focus on issues like this. What is odder to me is that Mharman seems to believe the setup for the game itself excludes a Cop, which I don't really understand. I get that this is an experimental game, but assuming that certain roles are or aren't present is much further than I'd be willing to go. I've done it before, I understand why Mharman's doing it, but it's burned me more often than it has helped.

I also sincerely do not get why trying to keep elements of my role hidden makes me more likely to be scum. Claiming Cop already put a target on my back, so either I'm dead this DP or scum are likely to try to manipulate or stop my action in some way. Leaving scum in the dark about when I could use it could at least have made them less certain about when I could use my role, potentially wasting RB's or other roles they could use. That's not possible anymore, but since I might be lynched before then, it won't matter anyway.

As for whether to lynch me or Savant, I think either one of us is a mistake. Savant claims he can confirm himself if given a chance to get through NP1, and I think he should get the opportunity to do so. I won't be confirmed by my result, but at the very least, lynching me next DP instead of this one gives you either a Cop result or at least a distraction for scum, since they'll have to do something about me that they won't be able to use on someone else.

I've got my issues with the VTNL, mainly because I do think there's value in seeing another flip, but as I said before, I think there's value in getting a claim from either Barney or Casey, who have largely coasted through the DP. If Barney claims tomorrow morning like he says (I'd prefer to keep it to three full claims at most), then we can make the call.

#429
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
Information. I think a lack of a conclusion to this DP would be harmful to us. We’d fail to get the information from a lynch meanwhile mafia will have wiped a townie out of the pool. Sure, we’ll have night actions to look at, but mafia will have just used their own to help with their agenda. It won’t be much but a new flavor to the same discussions.
What information would a lynch bring? For example, let’s say we lynch Whiteflame. What information would you gain from that besides his character and role?

Barring something like a 3v1 MYLO, if I have the chance to lynch mafia at the risk of mislynching town, I will take it.
That’s different that mis lynching a possible Cop. My problem here is that Luna said the game was swingy meaning it could be over after 1-2 DPs. That’s concerning to me.

Ideally we’d see mafia get lynched this DP so that we have their numbers reduced along with the information to along with it, but if we lynch and are wrong, at least we didn’t stand there and do nothing while the scum team dictates the flow of the game.
I don’t think we’ve sat here and done nothing. We have meaningful information. Savant is supposedly confirmable. Whiteflame is possible a Cop. At the very least tomorrow, we will know if Savant is town or not

Sure, town has PRs they can use in the night and mafia has things they can say during the day. But the fact remains that town is strongest playing around the day phase and mafia is strongest playing around the night phase. Let’s play to our strengths.
We are strong, but thematic analysis isn’t possible without a split. That’s the main reason why I think a No Lynch makes sense here. 
#430
ILikePie5
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I need to read WF’s justification again
#431
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I wasn't sure if I wanted to reveal this yet, but the Game is unlikely to make it to dp 4.

I asked whiteflame to explain his role more thoroughly because I wanted to know what type of cop. A weak cop and I just shut my mouth. A strong cop and then I have a CC. I just asked him to be transparent and he has denied the request so here is my CC and my full paraphrased role. 


baby! Every night, you can grab some schmuck and make 'em part of your crew. If they got the stones to join, they get an invite to your private little clubhouse on Discord, where you can shoot the breeze and plot all night long.

Now, listen up! If you snag a mafia, you ain't gonna know. But those sneaky bastards are gonna get a leg up each time one of their dirtbags slips into your gang. On the third night, you get to ask me if there’s any of those rat bastards in your crew. I'll give ya a straight yes or no, unless you get blocked or whacked. You're in it to win it with the town, so don’t screw it up!

So obviously I am okay recruiting a single town member to confirm the role, but would prefer to recruit nobody to deny scum the opportunity to get whatever benefits me recruiting them would have. 

I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt here, but I don't like that whiteflame is being elusive. 

Also when lunatic says the game can end NP1, I am a little hesitant about letting g them buy an extra day.

unvote VTL whiteflame
#432
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@ILikePie5
I have a bit of a  CC. I was hoping he would full claim so I could keep it to myself but there it is. 
Topic's author
#433
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Whiteflame- 3/5- Mharman, DD, wylted
Barney- 1/5-  pie
iLikePie5- 1/5- savant
420- 1/5- Barney

#434
WyIted
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420.posted this thread and still is mostly absent here

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/11314-if-the-following-statement-is-true-then-the-next-statement-is-true?page=1&post_number=11
#435
Discipulus_Didicit
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@ILikePie5
@WyIted
Alright dinner done now to argue against the no lynch as promised. I only remember wylted and pie floating this so I will address them directly.

Pie:
I don't like the no lynch idea. Even lynching a townie gives us info.
I’d usually agree but Luna said the game is very swingy meaning the game could be over very fast.
I cannot think of any combination of roles that could end it on NP 1 in a town victory. Most likely he means either a big or a bomb make it possible that scum could lose NP 1, I think us townies have nothing to fear.

Wylted:
I would be most comfortable with a mharman lynch this DP, but prefer a no lynch. 

Not really giving a reason here so I assume your reasoning is similar to pie in which case see above.

For my part a big part of why I do not want to no lynch is in general town obviously benefits from lynching as a mechanism of gaining info via analyzing the lynch and also removing players that are more sussed by town so we don't have to worry about them being mislynched at a critical MyLo or LyLo moment but there is another thing to consider that makes lynching the better move here. That thing is the odd vs even numbers of players.

Every DP-NP round results in, usually, two deaths. One lynch and one kill. If we assume that there will be at least one mislynch at some point past NP 1 and we assume that the town chooses to no lynch in a MyLo scenario then we have the following scenarios.

Scenario 1 (no lynch DP 1)
DP/NP 1 - 1 kill, 8 players left (6 town 2 mafia).
DP/NP 2 - 1 lynch and 1 kill, 6 players left (4 town 2 mafia - MyLo)
DP/NP 3 - 1 kill, 5 players left (3 town 2 mafia)

As you can see this scenario comes with a total of 3 kills and 1 lynch. This means that the 3 towniest players are no longer in the game and only one highly scum read player is eliminated, meaning many other of the 3 remaining town players will be widely scum read town that made it to endgame. Considering this and the fact that perfect play is required from them on to win this is a scenario where the odds highly favor the Mafia.

Scenario 2 (mislynch DP 1)
DP/NP 1 - 1 lynch and 1 kill, 7 players left (5 town and 2 mafia)
DP/NP 2 - 1 lynch and 1 kill, 5 players left (3 town and 2 mafia)

In this scenario there have only been a total of 2 kills by the time endgame comes rather than 3, meaning less chance for scum to eliminate highly town read townies thus increasing the odds that the next lynch will be correct.

Scenario 3 is one where we correctly lynch DP 1. I won't explain why that is a better scenario because it is obvious.
#436
Mharman
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We have a train, but we also have 15ish hours. Do not hammer here, you will look scummy. If we all wake up at around 7-9 in our respective tome zones, we’ll be able to gather our final thoughts and make a decision in time.
#437
Discipulus_Didicit
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@WyIted
Alright I started writing that last post of mine before you voted for WF and I didn't check for updates before posting it. Help get pie on board now please.
#438
Discipulus_Didicit
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We have a train, but we also have 15ish hours. Do not hammer here, you will look scummy. 
This statement is false. Hammer if you want to Hammer, 15 hours is not a lot of time and even if it was there is no point waiting for the last minute unless you want something specific.
#439
420-1776
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@ILikePie5
Dark Lord.
#440
Discipulus_Didicit
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I cannot think of any combination of roles that could end it on NP 1 in a town victory.
This was a typo. It was meant to say the following:

I cannot think of any combination of roles that could end it on NP 1 in a mafia victory.

#441
ILikePie5
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@420-1776
Dark Lord.
That’s your category? I’m confused
#442
WyIted
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I almost feel like just turning this vote on 420 since he is unlikely to be of any use and in a mylo situation, assuming we can even get him to vote he may just vote with whoever begs him the most, so a big liability
#443
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
Mafia is a game of compounded knowledge. If we get poor information from DP1, we can expect to make poor decisions in DP2, and future DPs to a lesser extent. While whatever we do in DP2 gives a chance at correcting our DP1 mistakes in DP3, we will be on the back foot, and barring any significant blunders from the mafia team, every decision we makes from that point onward must be correct. Conversely, if we gain good information DP1, then we won’t be as likely to be in a bad spot come DP3.

The problem with relying too much on NP1 to gain information here is that mafia largely dictates the bulk of the information we receive from a NP- the flip. They will get to pick whoever they want out of the game, and it will either be a player whose flip gives town little relevant information, or a player who can gain town way more information in the future if they stay alive.

While mafia can influence a lynch during the day, town at least has a lot more agency over who gets eliminated when they discuss who they want lynched, and actually doing it. If we spend all day saying who we want to lynch and then lynch no one, we were all just blowing a bunch of smoke up each others’ asses. And that can make the next DP… cloudy.
#444
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
Forgot to type out the last paragraph I was thinking of.

We don’t want cloudiness, we want clarity. Actions speak louder than words, and if we want to look back at DP1 in a meaningful way, we need to lock everyone into actions that they can be analyzed for in the future. If I’m mafia and I just say something without doing it, I can come up with some WIFOM bs that justifies whatever I said in the future. If I actually did something to go along my actions, I become a lot easier for town to read. This is also true for townies, but I think the concept is more prominent when talking about mafiosos.

#445
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
@Discipulus_Didicit
Also, Disc’s explanation is pretty good, maybe better than mine

Understand now, Pie?
#446
Mharman
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In short, I want the best DP2 possible, and am willing to have a mislynch DP1 to get it. I prefer a correct lynch, but really hate a no lynch.
#447
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Gn yall
#448
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hold on tho I still disagree with disc on hammering now.

Unvote

to be safe
#449
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@420-1776
Also, stop playing scared. Tell us what you think of others.
#450
Mharman
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See y’all in the morn