2024 predictions

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#31
thett3
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@Greyparrot
The funniest thing about that guy is I’m pretty sure the 13 keys model would’ve actually held up if he had applied them honestly. I remember he said that there was no “Scandal” key for example…I would say the sitting POTUS having to drop out four months before the election because he was exposed as senile on national television and the conspiracy to cover that up ranks among the biggest scandals in history. 
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#32
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Also he gave her “no primary contest” which is technically true…but in this highly unusual case that was obviously bad for the incumbent party. They didn’t have a primary because there wasn’t enough time…because there was a scandal that forced the sitting POTUS out like three weeks before their convention. 

And he gave her both keys for a strong economy which I don’t know how I would’ve handled but it CLEARLY wasn’t how voters saw it. And a key for major foreign policy success. I must’ve missed that huge success in between all the wars and chaos that broke out. 

Yeah the model actually held up lol he was just a hack 


#33
ADreamOfLiberty
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@thett3
The funniest thing about that guy is I’m pretty sure the 13 keys model would’ve actually held up if he had applied them honestly.
Yea Tim Pool went through them, they predicted Trump victory bigly.

The poor man was simply in a propaganda bubble.

#34
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Well, he was right when he claimed he would have been correct if not for the misinformation campaign(on his side).
#35
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@Greyparrot
Better than Alan Lichtman and his 13 keys...
He got acknowledged today he was wrong and gave a prescient assessment; "the keys assume a pragmatic populace concerned with good governance". That's just not what we have in this country anymore.
#36
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@Double_R
Lol, the keys also assume a TDS person wouldn't base it off of MSNBC misinformation.
#37
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@Double_R
Him saying that while saying there "was no scandal key" is hilarious.
#38
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@thett3
Donald Trump energizes people for and against him. I kinda figured if he was gonna win, he was gonna win big.

I get the sense the country’s centrists vote as a collective on him. I’m not entirely sure if it’s sure or why it would be if it is… perhaps Trump is so provocative that they have to take a look at him and his message- there’s no room to look at him equal or less to his opponent. So if they find things aren’t going well under a left wing administration, they will all go for him.

That’s my theory anyway.

It’s worth noting that a massive part of Trump’s victory was the gains he had in the minority vote this time around.
#39
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@thett3
Another thought:

Trump biggest gains this cycle were among minority men. Perhaps radical feminism and gender ideology that told them their masculinity was a problem led them to rejecting progressives’ ideas of race relations as well.

I can easily see a black man drawing the link between the “men are keeping women down” and “whites are keeping blacks down” ideas, and rejecting the latter because he easily saw how wrong the former is.

Of course, I’ve been seeing a lot more black conservatives on the internet recently. They may not have needed such a pipeline- the oppressed victim narrative is a bit tired and pretty racist itself.

On the other hand, people really respond when they are being told society is out to get their group. It creates a cycle of confirmation bias that is quite difficult to break- any human being that falls into the trap is gonna need a wake-up call of some kind, for minority men, that call was probably when they were told their masculinity was a problem.
#40
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@Mharman
Of course, I’ve been seeing a lot more black conservatives on the internet recently. They may not have needed such a pipeline- the oppressed victim narrative is a bit tired and pretty racist itself.
That trend is the backlash against the enforced propaganda demonizing "toxic masculinity." For a few years, men tried the "low-T ally" route, and ended up poorer and lonelier for it.

Men went conservative because there literally was nowhere else for them to go. Picking Tim Walz (the posterboy of a low-T ally) was one of the most myopic campaign decisions ever.
#41
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The world predicted America would screw up in 2024 elections. They were wrong. America wanted to get screwed so they picked Trump. Trump filed 7 corporate bankruptcies, a failed airline, a failed magazine, a failed scam university, three failed casinos, a failed pandemic response, the worst jobs record of any U.S. president, two impeachments, and 34 criminal convictions, Trump was fined 464 million dollars for business fraud and is in court for paying a porn star Stormy Daniels hush money. Trump's false or misleading claims total 30573 over 4 years
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#42
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@Mharman
I get the sense the country’s centrists vote as a collective on him. I’m not entirely sure if it’s sure or why it would be if it is… perhaps Trump is so provocative that they have to take a look at him and his message- there’s no room to look at him equal or less to his opponent. So if they find things aren’t going well under a left wing administration, they will all go for him.
I think people underrate how incredibly radical and divisive the Biden administration was. There’s a reason he’s been extremely unpopular for three straight years. They what, quadrupled immigration (entirely low skilled) unilaterally, were completely open about using the USG as a racial spoils system, an obviously failed foreign policy (just look at the results!!) and while they backed off from it because it backfired (and flipped extremely important players like Musk and other tech elites to Trump) there was an effort in 2021-2022 to use the administrative state and friendly industry to effectively repeal the First Amendment and destroy freedom of speech forever. And then the inflation. While this was unavoidable to some extent they did make it worse by passing huge spending bills that weren’t needed. 

And to top it all off the President himself, the person we elected to run the executive branch and to deal with foreign leaders, revealed himself to be completely incoherent and possibly senile due to his advanced age. After the debate all these leaks started coming out about how the President was only functional four hours a day, that he couldn’t stay up past 8 o clock, that he no longer recognized people he had known for years. And that this had been going on since 2022 at least. They spent years covering it up! They LIED to us for years, the entire party.  

Honestly Harris over performed by a lot. I think if we reran the simulation there’s a good chance that Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota, and New Mexico all flip. 
#43
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@thett3
and while they backed off from it because it backfired (and flipped extremely important players like Musk and other tech elites to Trump) there was an effort in 2021-2022 to use the administrative state and friendly industry to effectively repeal the First Amendment and destroy freedom of speech forever.
What on earth are you talking about?
#44
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@Double_R

this likely.
#45
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@Greyparrot
You people are so delusional it's impressive.

Attempting to combat misinformation (a very real problem and very real threat to national security is not, in any way, an attempt to destroy freedom of speech. That's just stupid.
#46
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@Double_R
You would never say that if the GOP made a misinformation board.
#47
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@Greyparrot
Setting to the side whether what they were chatting was a "misinformation board"...

Creating a misinformation board =/= destroying free speech.

If you don't understand the difference been those two things you have serious issues.

#48
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@Double_R
When you have the power to regulate private business, and you have a misinformation board, you are a direct threat to the 1st amendment.
#49
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@Greyparrot
They didn't have that power genius. It was literally just an advisory board.

Do you even bother to read your own sources?
#50
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@Double_R
You people are so delusional it's impressive.

Attempting to combat misinformation (a very real problem and very real threat to national security is not, in any way, an attempt to destroy freedom of speech. That's just stupid.
America was built on misinformation. Starting with declaring the land of native Indians, America. Slavery constitutional and Vietnam a communism threat. Then Iraq a nuclear threat. Finally Trump a Christian leader because he sells bibles.
#51
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@Greyparrot
They didn't have that power genius. It was literally just an advisory board.
The people in government who create and regulate the misinformation boards are the same people that dictate how private businesses are regulated. 

Name calling doesn't erase facts and truth.
Trump will ignore their advice and recommendations.
#52
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@Shila
They didn't have that power genius. It was literally just an advisory board.
The people in government who create and regulate the misinformation boards are the same people that dictate how private businesses are regulated.

Name calling doesn't erase facts and truth.

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#53
thett3
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@Double_R
What on earth are you talking about?
The Biden admin was sending social media companies specific posts and demanding they censor them. The case went all the way to SCOTUS where it was dismissed for lack of standing, but the fundamental facts, that the USG was monitoring communication and sending companies specific things that they demanded to be removed, was never in dispute. Before Elon bought Twitter, every single social media company was on board with this. Zuckerberg wrote an open letter just a few months ago admitting that he felt pressured by the government and expressing deep regret that he acquiesced to their demands. 


There was also a broader cultural trend against free speech led by the left when they felt ascendant during the George Floyd mass riots and the early Biden Admin. Remember “free speech does not equal freedom from consequences” whenever some random unfortunate would get caught on camera performing some minor blasphemy and would have their life ruined, get fired from their job, etc? That’s more or less dead now. I’m surprised you’re acting as if you have no clue what I’m talking about because I have distinct memories of discussing this sort of thing with you in 2021-2022 and you expressing your approval.

Obviously this is only one man’s testimony but I fully believe it. It seems evident to me that there was a concerted effort to control the information flow of technology through ideology and regulation. This certainly seems like the type of thing that democrats would be on board with given their behavior with other industries. 

“ He continued, “They were taking us through their plans, and it was – basically just full government – full government control. Like this sort of thing, there will be a small number of large companies that will be completely regulated and controlled by the government, they told us. They said don’t even start startups – there’s just no way that they can succeed – there’s no way that we’re going to permit that to happen.”
 
Rogan gasped.

But Andreessen wasn’t finished. “They said that this [control of AI] is already over. It’s going to be two or three companies and we’re just gonna control them and that’s that. Like this is already finished.”

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#54
thett3
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Additional mental note: spot Trumps approval rating aggregate around an additional 3 points this time around. I was skeptical in the run up to 2024 that he would outperform his polls yet again just because past performance doesn’t equal future results but it’s happened three times in a row now.

I think it’s clear now that pollsters really do have an issue reaching an appropriate number of Trump voters and that would extend to narratives about his approval too. 
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#55
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I mean ffs the democratic nominee for vice president said on the debate stage like three months ago that he didn’t believe “hate speech” was protected speech. He said throughout the campaign that things like “hate speech” or “disinformation” were not protected by the first amendment. Their vice presidential nominee.  A stance entirely in line with how the current democratic administration behaved in office. So sick of this gaslighting that we’re ignorant or crazy to say that the modern left does have a problem with free speech 
#56
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The people in government who create and regulate the misinformation boards are the same people that dictate how private businesses are regulated.

Name calling doesn't erase facts and truth.
Business regulations and media regulations are two different things. One deals with fair business practices and the other deals with free speech and 1st Amendment rights.