Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP4

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Cerulean
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A lot of this turns on whether or not Mharman's defense of WyIted on Day 2 came from a place of TMI or not. He came in defending WyIted pretty much instantly there...

Granted, so did I. Although this:

I just don’t think there’s any reason to say Wylted’s scum, not even in the slightest.
Was much stronger than what I was saying.

My eyes are starting to hurt staring at this website. I'm going to sleep and come back to this in the morning. Right now, I'm in a position of wanting to lynch ADOL, but I'm not quite ready to commit to that.
whiteflame
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@ADreamOfLiberty
[whiteflame] There’s no priority from me aside from my statement that you come off as the clearer lynch.
Well I'm not going to vote to lynch myself so there is no action to take on that. Just sit around and then lose.
That's not the point. You intentionally wrote that post to make it seem like Mharman was the preferred lynch for me, which he isn't, framing it as though that was the natural conclusion to take from Austin and my reads. Obviously, you would prefer we lynch anyone else, but since my argument wasn't "you should just vote yourself," this is a particularly strange response.

In that case, at this moment, I would side with Whiteflame and Cerulean for admittedly weak reasons. If you want to put a number to it, it would be like 51% chance Mharmen is scum because I think the role/theme assignment is weirder.
I'm trying to parse this. Walk me through it because I don't think I've seen you walk through the "role/theme assignment" justification for lynching Mharman. Your initial justification for VTLing him last game was "I've got nothing, but maybe this will convince Whiteflame we aren't a scum team," and your justification this DP up to this point has been focused on "distrust" between you, Austin and Mharman, which you claimed was the cause of you all collectively refusing to go after us (doubly weird since Mharman has been more than willing to sus us) with the explicit aim of ensuring that we "can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen". So yes, I'd like to know where your sus comes from. Hell, it's notable that you haven't come up with a reason to sus Austin at all beyond PoE.

The only justification I've seen for deciding not to sus Cerulean and I that I can find in any of your posts is "It would be a long con indeed if they were scum", which parrots my argument. Is that what you meant by "admittedly weak reasons"?

whiteflame
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@Cerulean
My eyes are starting to hurt staring at this website. I'm going to sleep and come back to this in the morning. Right now, I'm in a position of wanting to lynch ADOL, but I'm not quite ready to commit to that.
I think ADOL is the right choice, but there's no harm in waiting. I'm fine giving him a chance to respond to both what Austin and I have said. From where I'm sitting, while I can see how Austin might be his partner, I just don't think it's as likely as Mharman. I understand the uncertainty regarding Austin, but there's a lot more rubbing me the wrong way about Mharman.
Mharman
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If I am scum I don't defend Wylted as hard as I did. He was an easy mislynch for someone in my position. I could've flipped on him when Lunatic was cleared, I could've let Lunatic "convince" me over the course of the DP, or I could've voted him at the end just to have a lynch. I didn't.

Wylted was town and it was obvious, I still don't understand why yall wanted to lynch an-unCC'd cop who just cleared someone and made one of the dumbest possible decisions in targeting Lunatic if he was scum. Combine that with how he got mislynched for not SOPing miller last game, and to me it seemed completely natural that he would float the idea of claiming his role (and claim it after only one person asked) if he felt it even had the slightest amount of negative utility.

Because of how obviously town Wylted was, Wylted's mislynch is the type of lynch that only happens if scum is hard pushing for it. I refuse to believe most townies alive would actually go for it if the scum team wasn't looking to convince them. A few might, but I really think most won't.

I've done a lot of thinking on this and I'm thinking it's ADOL and Austin. I think both scum have to be on that wagon, and Cerulean and Whiteflame's behavior has more town explanations than the former two- particularly in ADOL's case in which I essentially have to derp clear him in a case where I think his behavior is more likely noob scum. However, I am not decided on who to lynch first since I think the odds of Cerulean buddying Whiteflame here are extremely low, almost to the point of impossibility. It really comes down to who I think has the stronger PR, and I haven't given that much thought yet.

I'll try to force myself to be more in-depth on this in the morning, but right now, I'm going to sleep. No promises, but I will try.
Mharman
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Who has the stronger PR between Austin and ADOL that is. I’d say I’m at 60-40 in favor of ADOL rn. I don’t know what their characters are for sure, but if they’re not fake claiming characters, Arya does sound stronger than Oromis I think.

ILikePie5
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Approximately 6.5 hours remaining
whiteflame
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@Mharman
If I am scum I don't defend Wylted as hard as I did. He was an easy mislynch for someone in my position. I could've flipped on him when Lunatic was cleared, I could've let Lunatic "convince" me over the course of the DP, or I could've voted him at the end just to have a lynch. I didn't.

Wylted was town and it was obvious, I still don't understand why yall wanted to lynch an-unCC'd cop who just cleared someone and made one of the dumbest possible decisions in targeting Lunatic if he was scum. Combine that with how he got mislynched for not SOPing miller last game, and to me it seemed completely natural that he would float the idea of claiming his role (and claim it after only one person asked) if he felt it even had the slightest amount of negative utility.

Because of how obviously town Wylted was, Wylted's mislynch is the type of lynch that only happens if scum is hard pushing for it. I refuse to believe most townies alive would actually go for it if the scum team wasn't looking to convince them. A few might, but I really think most won't.
I don't really love this as a defense of yourself. As someone who was very much on the fence about this lynch even when I voted the effective hammer, there were clearly town players on that lynch. Hell, one of them led the lynch. The people who pushed hardest for it by far were Luna and Austin, and while the latter is up in the air, the former has already flipped town. If ADOL ends up flipping scum, as I think he will, he was by far one of the least involved in pushing for that lynch despite being on the wagon. Hell, everyone has Austin and I separated in their reads this DP, which means one of us was town and also involved in the lynch. So the notion that scum absolutely had to be "hard pushing for it" with both members on the lynch doesn't necessarily follow. There was clearly value in his lynch, but that doesn't mean scum necessarily would take the bait, especially since I clearly promised to make a decision in those waning minutes of the DP. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if scum saw me as a mislynch opportunity if I ended up not pulling the trigger.

So much as you are basically parroting WyIted's logic from the end of that DP, I'm still not sold on it. I believe at least one scum was on that lynch. I don't believe both necessarily were.


Mharman
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@whiteflame
That's why I said, most, not all. I'm aware there's some townies who would've gone for that. However, the decision is so ridiculous that I think there has to be scum on that wagon. I don't see how in a given pool of only townies, Wylted gets lynched there. Therefore, scum had to have been present in that lynch. Regardless, it doesn't  change the fact that I had every incentive to be opportunistic in that lynch if I were scum, regardless of what townies did or didn't support it. Given the previous DP, there was a very real chance of another no-lynch, and I decided I was okay with it because I townread Wylted that hard. As mafia, I would have been incentivized to keep us in evens by lynching him.
whiteflame
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@Mharman
That's why I said, most, not all. I'm aware there's some townies who would've gone for that. However, the decision is so ridiculous that I think there has to be scum on that wagon.
You said that there had to be both scum on the wagon. That’s where I disagree. I think scum had incentive to push for the lynch. I don’t think that achieving the lynch necessitated the participation of both scum. Excluding Earth, we know there were at least two townies on that lynch. Why is it such a stretch to believe there were three? Because the lynch didn’t make sense to you? What kind of reasoning is that?

Regardless, it doesn't  change the fact that I had every incentive to be opportunistic in that lynch if I were scum, regardless of what townies did or didn't support it. Given the previous DP, there was a very real chance of another no-lynch, and I decided I was okay with it because I townread Wylted that hard. As mafia, I would have been incentivized to keep us in evens by lynching him.
I already said I can see WIFOM reasoning to stay off the lynch. Scum didn’t know my role at the time, so perceiving an opportunity to get me lynched DP3 if I waffled and didn’t commit to anything would have made sense. WyIted would have either been killed by NK or RB’d, so the risk to scum was negligible at best, not to mention a NL was almost inevitable at some point (we did it DP3) after the NL in DP1, so scum was always going to lose the opportunity to score another mislynch, it was just a matter of when.

So yes, you had the opportunity. You also had the benefit of using this to make the case that you are townie because you didn’t do it and put some distance between yourself and ADOL. So, no, I don’t buy that this somehow vindicates you.
whiteflame
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@Mharman
For the purposes of this DP, though, this is all besides the point. If you want this to be a heads up between you and Austin, I’m fine pushing that to next DP. It probably won’t be my decision since I’m very likely the NK in NP4, but I’ve made my opinion on the matter clear. If you’re good to lynching ADOL, so am I.
ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
Approximately 3 hours remaining
whiteflame
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I’ll be voting over lunch. Unless someone can give me a good reason to go another way, it’ll be ADOL.

Mharman
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Ceruelan: I don’t like his behavior day 1 where he asks us all to speculate roles and switches to character specific the second it is point we put to him that. His defense then was that he wanted people to speculate based on what characters mafia might have. Tbf he did do focus on characters plenty before defending himself on that, but that character focusing could help in determine town PRs and also retroactively justify his behavior. He did ask ADOL that question about secret hitler and Galbatorix before going on about role spec, so there’s that, although he revealed his hand on that after his spec. 

DP2, however, he was defending Wylted. Not as hard as I was (and I wonder if he would have hammered if Whiteflame didn’t) so I was thinking the argument I apply to myself should apply to him and yeah, defending Wylted there does carry the risk of losing the mislynch, even a lighter defense. That’s a major point in his favor.

This DP he did clear Whiteflame, so I’d have to conclude they’re working together if they’re a scum team. I don’t think the master plan is as hard as others say, but if Cerulean was scum and buddying Whiteflame there, odds are low that he clears him there. It’s worth noting that Oracle and Voodoo Lady do kinda CC each other, and singer as well. I have to either conclude there really is that level of redundancy in the setup, or I have to say ADOL is only weak semi/total investigative role. The Oracle role can be an excuse for being alive this long, but we did force the role out of him… at the very least, the justification isn’t horrible, although a little suspect iirc from what Lunatic said.

Whiteflame: I didn’t like his defense of Cerulean DP1 where he essentially credited some plan to manipulate the scum team as the reason cerulean was doing all that. I don’t buy that. He was on the wagon DP2, so that’s definitely against him, although he was also on the wagon late. I also hated his arguments throughout this game. 

The tide started to shift with the voodoo lady claim. Like with Wylted, it would be a stupid claim if he’s scum and it does have Ceruelan’s blessing now. UnCCd voodoo lady is not as compelling as unCCd cop though, and he is in fact CCd by ADOL’s role at the least. It’s not that having Cerulean clear him is hard, it’s the pick itself is super hard to pull off, at which point anyone with the skill necessary to pull it off would rather fake claim something else and making that work. 

The connection to Cerulean is actually helping him here because I think the case for Austin and ADOL are both stronger than for Cerulean’s- I can at least see the town case for Cerulean and by extension Whiteflame.

Austin: In DP1 he gave reasons to scumread Cerulean but then said came up with a townread of him off vibes alone. Same with Lunatic, except Lunatic wasn’t scumread or townread by really anyone because he had barely adobe anything at that point. Then after I vote for Ceruelan, he just joins the wagon. 

DP2 he was the second person on the wagon again and parroting much of Luantic’s points. Lunatic can get a clear on bad logic for being town confirmed, but Austin isn’t confirmed by anyone. Not Wylted, not Cerulean. At least Whiteflame is paired with some with a town case; Austin doesn’t have that luxury. Since then nothing has pinged my radar, but I’m not seeing any real reason to townread him.

ADOL: At first I was felt he was genuine but now that I’m seeing more from him, I think he was just flying under the radar. The whole need he felt to disassociate from me last DP was weird and saying it out loud is more revealing of noob scum than noob town imo. I didn’t think anything of it DP2, but his idea that Lunatic could be scum with some fuckery is really weird to me, so there’s that. Oh and he did misrepresent where I stood on things earlier this DP.

Then in this DP he says he’s gonna make the call that it’s me and Austin, then backtracks and says he’s not certain. And DP2 he didn’t fight the Wylted lynch that hard sure, but he didn’t go against it that hard either. He gave very little reason on both sides tells me it’s fencesitting where he went for Wylted once he was sure the chances of getting Wylted were good- notice he was the third on the wagon. I know noob town doesn’t have much in the way of logic to give, but neither does noob scum.

All in all there’s no town case for him other than I just have to believe he’s town from the start and derp clear him, at which point he’s just as easily scum and derping around, if anything it’s more likely given obsession with disassociating from me. I kinda get the sense he’s doing it to frame things in a way that makes me his theoretical teammate at Austin’s request.

Also, his claim of singer and justification is horrid. Ok elves sing. So what? To me Arya sounds like a protective role if town, and a powerful role if mafia given that she’s one of the main characters with a variety of skills at her disposal. She could also protect mafia in some way. If we’re going off justifications, ADOL has far and away the worse one. He doesn’t even get the argument that such a claim would be stupid if he’s scum, since in this scenario he gets to blend in off Cerulean and Whiteflame’s roles. It’s a misplay to go for it imo because there’s little room his role, but it’s not inherently horrid because he can argue it makes him fit. The part of it that truly makes it horrid is the justification.

Even in the extremely unlikely situation where Cerulean is scum, ADOL is the more likely the teammate sine Austin still voted Cerulean at the end of the day, when a lynch on him was no guarantee. No even in that rare event Austin has a town case that he wouldn’t normally have, that ADOL doesn’t.

And this is what it really comes down to at the end of the day. For Ceruean and by extension Whiteflame, they have a town case I can see. Austin doesn’t really have one right now, but in the rare scenario where Cerulean is scum and buddying Whiteflame, he gets one there. ADOL has absolutely nothing going for him.

Plus, he spends all that time on me and then doesn’t vote at all- so I wonder if he’s afraid of putting us in a situation where one of us is guaranteed scum because he’s the stronger PR. He was also the last player in the game to claim. Although thinking about it more it doesn’t matter much since the final three is almost guaranteed to be Cerulean, Austin and I. All the info on PRs has probably been gathered, and scum probably has made all the plays they can. So that one scenario where Cerulean is buddying Whiteflame matters a tiny bit more because ADOL looks just a tick worse than Austin. Cerulean seems to not want to decide between Austin and I today, so there’s that.

All in all, ADOL’s behavior is too weird, the defense is weak, the justification for his claim is horrid, and in any possible scenario he’s preferable. I’m going to go for him.

VTL ADOL
Mharman
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@whiteflame
@ADreamOfLiberty
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
1hr 30
whiteflame
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@Cerulean
I see you're online and I'm ready to make my decision. Are you good with ADOL or are you leaning elsewhere?
Cerulean
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At this point, I don't really see myself coming to a different conclusion. I think Austin and Mharman are hard unpaired and ADOL's role makes a lot of sense as an "Oh God, we need to fake claim, quick! Find an unusual role that makes sense!" claim.

I'll drop my vote now, WF should be left to hammer and give a final legacy.

VTL ADOL
Cerulean
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Well, that was convenient timing.
whiteflame
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Lol, guess so. I'm just not able to shrug off my concerns about ADOL. Austin, Mharman and Cerulean, I wish (most of) you luck and good decision-making for the final DP. You know where I'm leaning.

VTL ADOL
ILikePie5
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STOP POSTING
ILikePie5
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Final Official Vote Count:

ADOL (3/3) - Mharman, Cerulean, Whiteflame


ADOL was lynched. He was…INNOCENT. Endgame up in a bit.
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@whiteflame
Lock please