Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
There's a player here whose play I've been a little bit disappointed in. I wonder if everyone knows who I'm talking about.
Don’t know about you, but Wylted has been disappointing for me. But he’s also trying to improve his life
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@Mikal
Survivor is certainly new and I am not sure I buy into a certain year split but I do wonder based on my show if it’s older shows vs newer or something like that
If you believe this, however, you should also think that I'm scum because I'm also post-2000. Savant is as well iirc (might be wrong about that, I haven't checked).
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@ILikePie5
I’ll post a Poe list after work but that’s not directed at anyone specific because I don’t remember everyone who has defended him or why. Just posted as a note for me to read back on later as a reminder. There is motivation to leave him alive for the scum team. 

I still think his behavior is scum sided or as I mentioned, at best anti town. He’s still currently at the top of my Poe but want to look at motivations deeper about why people are defending him and if the logic is consistent. 

I’m really curious about who is null reading most people without a stance on anything. 




whiteflame
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@Mharman
@Casey_Risk
It was indeed Mharman. I was going to wait for him to show up to see how he responded to me, but we have less than 24 hours left at this point and we need to move towards a lynch. I think we should consider Mharman, largely for the reasons that you just stated. He's been on the sidelines, his reads are unremarkable and have progressed little, and if Mikal's theory about scum trying to just let the Earth lynch happen is true, it would seem to implicate him.

It would also implicate Wylted, who I'm not super happy with. The one thing I've liked about his behavior was when he came up with that possible theme split early on - that felt fairly genuine to me. But I haven't seen anything else from him that I've liked. 

Between Mharman and Wylted however, Wylted has at least given me something to townread him, however small. Mharman hasn't. I want him to weigh in more. 

VTL Mharman 
Damn, you beat me to it. I'm good with getting a claim from either or both of them at this point. I believe we have two full claims on the board (Earth and Austin), so it's not excessive yet, though I don't want to start pushing for too many more. I agree with Mikal, though, that we really have to make moves at this point. We won't benefit from bringing this close to the end before we start pushing.

I'm good with joining you on this one.

VTL Mharman
Mikal
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@Casey_Risk
I am not entertaining it yet. It’s a thought I want to put out there for later and is just additive on top of my other reasons of sussing him. It’s the last thing I am analyzing in depth but more of a mental note 

And I’m not sure if new or old does what I’m thinking justice and may be worded poorly. I just don’t think of Survivor as like what I could consider a game show. Granted that’s subjective. 

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I can’t read through all this coherently atm but want to put out before we full pressure someone. We should absolutely make sure they are in a heavy lynch pool. If we start doing this shit where we push and all the claims start sounding good or well worded. Which I believe pie has already said about the two out there, we are going to take the risk of jumping between people and having to many claims come out. If much more come out this dp and we don’t commit to someone, we are giving mafia a huge advantage at night. 


We need to lock in on someone but need to lock in on behavior. Specially if there is a fake claim. I just can see this happening. We go person by person and every claim sounds good and then we’ve given up to much. 
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@Mikal
And I’m not sure if new or old does what I’m thinking justice and may be worded poorly. I just don’t think of Survivor as like what I could consider a game show. Granted that’s subjective.
Fair enough, I can see where you're coming from, though I will say that my own character isn't exactly what I think of as a 'traditional' game show, though it's closer to it than Survivor.

My shift at work is starting soon, so I'll be low activity for the rest of the day.
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My gut is still on earth and Anna with Mharm and wylted leaning more null but they would likely be on my list just by Poe. I want to make a list later and actually read back over the idea of earth being kept around intentionally like I said. 

My point is that whoever we pick. Needs to be the pick and we need to pick that off behavior because we likely can’t trust claims or roles to much. Unless it’s a damn good one. Behavior is always a better indicator. 
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We need to lock in on someone but need to lock in on behavior. Specially if there is a fake claim. I just can see this happening. We go person by person and every claim sounds good and then we’ve given up to much.
This is a really towny concern for Mikal to express, especially considering I've seen this happen before. I'm actually starting to lean town on Mikal.
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Okay, gotta get to work. I'll post when I can, whether that be on break or just when I have a free moment.
WyIted
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@Savant
 - A lot of posts with little substance.  Not always alignment indicative from Wylted, but I think getting lazier near the end of the day phase is more likely if he’s scum.
Now analyze my last game as town..

I think you brought me down 2 percentage points but you don't have to tag me in this try harding  I town read you I am glad you are putting these out but honestly the scum pool just isn't that large for me and I don't agree with much of it so my focus is on eliminating my scum pool. Moozer should claim if he hasn't already
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Austin- 1/6- savant
Earth- 1/6- Mikal
Moozer- 2/6- Wylted, Banana
Mharman- 2/6- Casey, whiteflame
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@ILikePie5
It’s a Freudian slip. Moozer shouldn’t know that everyone else is a mislynch but he should know that he is a mislynch
I am still not caught up completely. I am currently trying to get his claim though because he's definitely in my scum pool. Not sure why he isn't at L1 at the moment or anything I feel like once this claim is out of the way we can easily start comparing notes and coalescing around a lynch
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@ILikePie5
Don’t know about you, but Wylted has been disappointing for me. But he’s also trying to improve his life
Taking inventory and setting up systems, which involves not much free time and I am continually breaking down systems and replacing them. Trying to get a strong foundation to build off of. 

I am calling it System Zero. I am just going to give it to others when I am done. Not the system itself because it's only useful to me, but the mentality and tips for doing the same thing for others. 

I know I have been saying this the last few games but I think this is the last game. At least for a while unless I can find a way to make it serve my larger purpose. If I get creative perhaps I can but as you can see I am also considerably less active on other parts of the site and my personality has shifted.
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@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
There is a lot to read can you guys explain your mharman reads. I am essentially giving up on reading the 5 pages I missed
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@Moozer325
When are you confirmable?

Is it by next DP or something? Or is there another mechanism for making you confirmable?
iamanabanana
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@Mikal
Point out specifically how I have been not consistent and not logical. I responded to Casey in depth about why I moved them to town, so I’m not going to go back over that 
I have actually multiple times. Your entire point is that I volunteered information to gain town credibility right? What information have I offered that literally every other player hasn't offered at this point? I gave a bare miminum of baseline information and only because I was suggesting every other player in the game do it. It's hypocritical to suggest every player claim something and not claim something yourself.

And If you mean my read on earth. The only argument people are bringing up against that read is that earth just acts this way normally. Pie even agrees the behavior is scummy as shit but is giving a pass atm because it is earth. 
That's the point though, earth isn't even as scummy as he has been in other games, but you are using this "common argument" that people like pie have against him because you know it makes him an easy target.

As for you, I’ve conceded it’s a gut  feeling off the initial post multiple times. I still think it seems like you were buying town cred. I have to read through what casey posted about it being meta later. Maybe it’s NAI but it still reads me as weird. 
You say you "concede" but literally every time you bring up your scum reads, you have me and earth on them. So you are clearly lying about this in order to give the appearance of actually considering things.

Really a large majority of anything related to me or my reads about her is still just omgus.
Except I am suspicious of you for targeting people who you think are easy mislynch targets, I am not just suspicious of you for going after me. Earth and casey were also in that pile until you got intimidated away from casey when you realized she was a strong female who could shut you up. Dismissing my whole argument against you as omgus is extremely ridiculous and you know that.


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@Moozer325
I’m on my phone so I’m just posting things as I see them instead of one long post. Right now I’m on Banana’s reads

I know I am town, so why should I have to spend so much of the day phase trying to defend myself, especially when the reasons just aren't very good to begin with.
This triggers some alarm bells with me. Aside from it being the worst defense ever, it seems like it could go one of two ways, a horrible scum play, and a town slip. I’m still not sure what I think is more likely.
Whats wrong with it? Mikals reasons are pretty horrible. His whole basis for scumreading me was that "I volunteered too much information for town cred". The only information I volunteered was the soft claim lock in, again something we have done in every game. That's by definition a horrible argument.
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@Casey_Risk
I don't see this as being AI for Austin in particular; he often uses a lot of self-analysis in his posts, both as town and as mafia.
Maybe you are right, but I would have just assumed all that stuff as true if he didn't point it out, so that's the only reason I thought it was odd.
Mharman
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Catching up

Yes I see the pressure… hell no + piss off
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@Mharman
Yes I see the pressure… hell no + piss off
Love this reaction from Mharman... 
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@whiteflame
s for Banana, I think she mostly has some good reads this game, but... yeah, there are some surprising gaps and misreads. Maybe that's just a matter of the DP being so long and her having so much to synthesize, maybe it's the fact that I'm one of her scumreads and I just don't understand her reasoning against me.
Chances are I didn't explain it correctly, I am happy to do so though.

For example, looking at the basis she's using, she says I'm not "taking any of the mikal points in" when the central basis for my read of Earth in my post last night was balancing issues brought up by Mikal and Pie.
I did mention this actually: "Then he concludes that the claim is a "safe" role claim, and I honestly just don't see that after he just said he saw pies point. Again the only way that's a safe claim is if its the provided fake claim right?"

Maybe I am misunderstanding what you meant by safe but that seems to go against what earth actually claimed, which is something that I've been gathering is a more rare role, or one that isn't used often. That doesn't read safe to me, that reads as risky. Safe would be a tried and true go to claim, that mafia use frequently. I don't have any examples of what that might be, but soldier doesn't seem to fit that category from what I am picking up from the peanut gallery.

I am also not the only one to point out that the Soldier claim is "safe" since, if it is a fake claim, it is almost certain not to get CC'd. I did make the point that Earth would have to have been given Survivor as a fake character claim, not that he'd have to have received Soldier as a fake role claim.
So what makes it safe is how CCable it is? Let me ask, is people getting CC'ed a pretty common occurrence here? I think the last game was the first time I've seen someone actually get CC'ed. I technically CC'ed earth in russian mafia, but the mod admitted fault there for accidentally putting the phrase "first tsar" in two PM's.

That's the distinction. And yes, I made extensive mention of the fact that I have a hard time reading Earth behaviorally and left him as null as a result. He's never been top of my scumreads, but just seeing relatively normal Earth behavior doesn't shift the needle for me and I can't dismiss the possibility that he's fake claiming here. I don't see how that's odd or how the "math" doesn't add up. If leaving him in PoE makes me scummy, then that's not going to change for the time being, but that's the only thing I see here that seems basically accurate to what I've said about him. She also points out that my decision not to make a call last night on Mikal demonstrates my lack of commitment. I guess... apologies for not giving all my reads in one sitting at midnight? Also, as multiple people have pointed out, my being non-committal isn't a scumtell.
Maybe I am just being too harsh on my mikal read, but under the assumption that mikal is setting up targets he feels are easy mislynches, I am naturally going to be a little suspicious of anyone who is still scum reading earth based on anything mikal has said. When I was reading your reads last night, I saw him in your null pile and was trying to get in your head to understand how that happened, but with you agreeing with certain pieces of the pie logic, it was hard for me to wrap my ahead around how you arrived at the conclusion you did that earth was just "null" and it seemed kind of like an easy way to integrate yourself into the earth lynch if and when it may happen. I saw mharman also had left earth in the same spot, but I was looking at his thought processes to lead him there, and it didn't stand out to me as much so I didn't mention it.
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@Moozer325
Any reason you haven't claimed yet? I am leaving my vote on you until you do. You were gone for most of the day phase, even austin claimed already.
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Can someone check something for me because I’m still not off for a bit. Why is Anna’s vote on Moozer if she town read him.  I can’t remember if he was in her town block but I think so 

I am not ignoring her response. Just I have explained it till I’m blue in the face and most people seem to see how I’m drawing concussions except for her. Which is why I think her behavior is just hard as shit omgus. Again not sure that is AI. But it’s exhausting at this point going back and forth when we are talking in circles. 


I will hit this list later but I think by Poe 

Earth - behavior and reasons I’ve listed. Not going back into it all again. I will admit this may change once I review and read back. I want to read back with the mindset people are town reading him or wanting to leave him alive for a Mislynch. I have not had the chance to do that yet so I am leaving him where is is currently at in my head. 

Ana - behavior and omgus. Most of her reads revolve around me. Reading people off how I read them, or town reading people defending her. I know Casey said she did this before with that2 but I have not had a chance to look back. But still this is just a hard gut read for me. Again I will try to read back on the game he is referring to before we end the day phase 

Mharm 
Moozer 
Wylted 

The bottom three are there from POE because I think most others are currently more town or have reasons to trust them for the moment. Austin for example. We can confirm his role but that also is not AI. But we can use that later to have him target a lynch to at least validate his claim. 

Those 5 atm would be what I am comfortable picking from. Again subject to change later after I read back but wanting to put it out there since we are discussing who to pressure and we are running out of time. 
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@iamanabanana
Let me ask, is people getting CC'ed a pretty common occurrence here? I think the last game was the first time I've seen someone actually get CC'ed. I technically CC'ed earth in russian mafia, but the mod admitted fault there for accidentally putting the phrase "first tsar" in two PM's.
There was also a CC in the last Lunatic game, Serial Killers. That2 and I both claimed Cop. The mafia wasn't given any fakeclaims in that one, and the ones they came up with on their own weren't very good. You can see some discussion of this in the Endgame thread, but it's certainly part of what led Luna to give the mafia a little bit of help in this game. Without any fakeclaim assistance, however, being CC'ed is always a real threat. 
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@Mikal
Can someone check something for me because I’m still not off for a bit. Why is Anna’s vote on Moozer if she town read him.  I can’t remember if he was in her town block but I think so 
I town read him yes, doesn't mean I know he is town. He was absent for most of the day phase, and austin was forced to claim immediately, I think moozer should be held to the same standard if he doesn't know how active he can be.

But it’s exhausting at this point going back and forth when we are talking in circles. 
Dismissing everything I say as omgus isn't talking in circles, its a lazy way for you to continue to double down instead of just admitting you made a bad read.
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@Casey_Risk
There was also a CC in the last Lunatic game, Serial Killers. That2 and I both claimed Cop. The mafia wasn't given any fakeclaims in that one, and the ones they came up with on their own weren't very good. You can see some discussion of this in the Endgame thread, but it's certainly part of what led Luna to give the mafia a little bit of help in this game. Without any fakeclaim assistance, however, being CC'ed is always a real threat. 
Is it a common enough occurence to justify the stance that more obscure roles are "safer" to claim than common ones? If so maybe I will give whiteflame a pass on that argument.
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@iamanabanana
I don’t think it’s a bad read I still think it felt like you were framing town credit. I already conceded to Casey this may be some weird site meta (I also have to check this later) but it just felt wrong. Past that you are defensive as all hell. It’s like you are offended i am scum reading you and hyper focusing on me when other people are pointing out the same inconsistencies. I notated very early on that I thought it was super weird you town read Moozer just because he was defending you (now your voting him or pushing him for a claim?)  Did your read change, if so why? Your read on earth is largely based on my perception of him. It’s not a lazy analysis. It’s literal omgus which again is not AI. But just hyper fixating and basing a a majority of your reads on me all because I found your initial post as farming town cred is odd. You do realizing forcing claims just to force them is bad right? Whoever we push this time needs to be who we kill unless there is some overwhelming claim that makes it logical not to do so. We can’t keep giving up free information. 

I don’t think I’ve been inconsistent at all. In fact I think I’ve been the most consistent person in this game. Very few of my reads have changed and the ones that have, I explained in detail why they did.  


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@iamanabanana
Is it a common enough occurence to justify the stance that more obscure roles are "safer" to claim than common ones? If so maybe I will give whiteflame a pass on that argument.
I'll put it this way: in a game like this where the mafia is given fairly minimal help, I definitely think they would be incentivized to try and claim less common roles, especially early on, to avoid a CC.
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@Mikal
At this point, I think I'd be fine with an Earth lynch. He's not my main scum read (WyIted and WF lean further scum), but I don't think we'll lynch either of those two today. Also Earth already outing his role made it a bit useless, so mechanically he's low risk to eliminate.