Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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#61
Mharman
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@Savant
Taking a page out of my book I see.

I have a first impression on someone, but like you I want to wait and see a little pit as well.

I guess I’ll say I have a first impression on someone. Guess who 
#62
Mharman
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A little bit *
#63
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@Mharman
Guess who
WyIted?
#64
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@Moozer325
Hi 

VTL Moozer
Topic's author
#65
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Official Vote Count:

Casey- 1/6- Wylted
Whiteflame- 1/6- Mikal
Austin- 1/6- Whiteflame
Moozer- 1/6- Mharman

#66
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I assume mharman has his reasons

Unvote VTL moozer
Topic's author
#67
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Official Vote Count:

Whiteflame- 1/6- Mikal
Austin- 1/6- Whiteflame
Moozer- 2/6- Mharman, Wylted 


#68
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And just like that, the lobby slows to a crawl, after a hot start…
#69
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I'm just going to post my reads now. Don't see a point in waiting if things are going to be low otherwise.
#70
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@Earth
@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@Mikal
@iamanabanana
Reads List 1.0
Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town starts at 70%, since there are 7 town players besides me and 3 scum players. Hence, even a player with scummy behavior can have >50% odds of being town (in fact, early on, they usually do).

Based on a Python simulation that may or may not be accurate, each eliminated player generally needs to be more likely scum than not (even slightly better than 50%) for town to have the advantage. This is harder than it sounds, because each individual player has a high default probability of being town. But it should be easier in later phases of the game. (This is not to suggest no-lynching, of course, which usually hurts town even more than an uncertain lynch.)

One interesting fact is that small, consistent differences actually matter a lot more than you’d expect. If each eliminated player has 60% odds of being scum, town has a 68% win rate. If each eliminated player has 40% odds of being scum, town has a 32% win rate.

iamanabanana
  • Lean Town (74%)
  • #7 - LT - Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
  • #33, #41 - T - I don’t see scum Banana coming out and giving info about her role without being asked. She’s played a few games, so it’s possible for this to be a tactic, but I think scum wouldn’t play this risky.
iLikePie5
  • Lean Town (74%)
  • #48, #49, #51 - LT - I like that Pie’s first posts are immediately about the game, no attempts to gain cred just through agreeableness.
  • #55 - T - This feels like a town slip. Pie doesn’t realize scum have only one fake claim. Could be a scum play to feign ignorance, but Pie is a fast and instinctive player, that kind of strategy wouldn’t fit his MO.
Mikal
  • Lean Town (73.5%)
  • #16 - LT - An early post where the vote seems more substantive than for “joke” reasons, even if the goal is just to get someone’s attention, it’s not presented alongside a quip.
  • #18, #25, #27 - LT - Ticking off another player like this would be an odd move coming from scum. Really I only see it biasing people against Mikal, hence I’m inclined to town read it. WIFOM, I know, but I just don’t see Mikal banking on being town read for being annoying.
  • #34, #57 - LT - I like that Mikal is taking the lead, however he was already making some bold moves challenging WF so this doesn’t change my read too much
  • #36, #38 - LT - Confronting another player out the gate is good, and Mikal is asking something I was curious about as well. This is pro-town at the very least.
Earth
  • Lean Town (71%)
  • #35 - LT - For an infrequent poster, drawing attention early without a need comes across as more instinctive to town than to scum.
Mharman
  • Lean Town (71%)
  • #60, #61 - LT - Strategizing that doesn’t give off any red flags. There’s a question posed to Pie that could be manipulative but seems more like an attempt to get a read, and I like that. Don’t know that scum would have thought to do that.
AustinL0926
  • Null (69%)
Moozer325
  • Null (69%)
Casey_Risk
  • Null (69%)
Wylted
  • Lean Scum (65.5%)
  • #3 - LS - I know it’s WIFOM, but if this post is alignment indicative (not convinced it is), I think the intent is to appear unafraid of gaining attention and hence towny, especially since WyIted is usually given a pass for such posts. Which in turn makes it a strategic move for scum.
  • #45 - LS - I don’t love that WyIted immediately qualifies his claim with a fun fact about reality shows. If he gave that information separately, it would be fine, but I think that when people are being deceptive or discussing information they don’t want revealed, they have a tendency to immediately answer the question and then change the subject.
whiteflame
  • Lean Scum (64%)
  • #16 - LS - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
  • #17, #21, #23 - LS - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste.
  • #28 - LS - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
  • #32 - LT - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
“The scummiest player is unlikely to be scum. Every other player is even less likely to be scum, so you should eliminate the scummiest player.” - Wayne Gretzky
#71
Savant
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@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
@Moozer325
See above
#72
Savant
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One note I should add is that most posts so far have been towny, which slightly increases the probability of non posters being scum.
#73
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Happy savant engaged. I’ll post a read list once I get to a spot where I can take some time and do it. Going out to eat. But yeah once it starts crawling, all you can really do is sit around and hold your dick while people get on.  I will say ideally lack of activity is usually what makes scum win. So if we have people that are just not engaging, we will need a solution for them. Some of the worst players win games by choosing to post fluff or nothing at all 
#74
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Actually going into Walmart before we eat and wanted to go ahead and do this while my mind was churning so I didn’t lose some of my thoughts. Posting them to journal where my head is at now 

Lean town 

Pie - Pie is engaging and following his normal meta. I don’t think he has posted fluff or tried to detract with theme analysis or other vague concepts. Usually scum pie will lead the town on a goose chase and the fact he isn’t taking us in a single direction and just giving thoughts that are game related make me think he is town 

Wylted - I don’t think wylted as scum just outright keeps antagonizing me. Both this game and last he’s just been a passive aggressive little shit and I feel like as scum it doesn’t make sense to draw attention like that 

Savant - tbf this is just a guy read and I skimmed the shit about probability. I never buy into probability in mafia just because of to man varying factors. You have the basic odds and determined by scum to town ratio and that’s it. You can’t control how people act. The post in general seems like geninue scum hunting and analyzing why people are saying and posting things. Could be feigned and don’t know him at all to know how meta but it reads in good faith 

Lean scum 

Earth - one post, was here no initial rv and no value. Could be flying under the radar

Cassie - same 

(Tbf these are weak reads but when people participate and not move the game forward, my head goes to coasting) 


Stronger Scum 

Banana - the post wanting to immediately soft claim a year and being willing to do that with 0 pressure just sits wrong with me. I do think it’s moving the game toward but something about those posts make me think it’s not genuine and was fishing for town card 


Null

Mharm - ima be real. I always have issues reading him. He did pressure vote but he bounces around everywhere and does not stay consistent with this reads and does this regardless of scum or town. I always have issues getting a read on him. Want to see more. 

WF - I don’t know if I can call him Scum yet. It’s mostly null with a potential scum lean. He deflected the pressure and offered up a soft claim. Likely to appease me. But why? Appease me to get me off his back so I don’t catch him again or appease me because he’s actually frustrated he thinks I will make a meta out of chasing him. It’s hard to tell. He played it off as genuine frustration which is my only hesitancy with saying I lean full scum but he’s also experienced enough to play that angle off. 


I’m doing this off a phone and memory as I was thinking about it but the rest have not contributed enough value yet to have decent thoughts. Unless im
Forgetting someone off memory 
#75
whiteflame
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@Savant
I appreciate the read set, even if I disagree with your read on me in particular. I'll post a set of reads myself later when I can sit down and write it out.

As for responding to the specifics, frankly, I don't have a clear strategy. I've said if people want my claim, they can push me for it, but I don't love that it's becoming the norm for Mikal to start in on me because he got me last game. That doesn't strike me as effective game strategy to just keep pushing the same person game after game, and it's frankly frustrating because, in both games, the reasoning has been that I suck at fake claiming and am active. I don't know exactly how you think I should respond to that if you think this response is scummy. I'm not going to vanish into the background so I'm inactive enough that he forgets me, and I'm not just going to surrender information on that basis. At the same time, I'm also not just going to sit here defending myself so, yeah, I put all of one post's worth of attention on one of the inactives.

None of that really matters, though. If you think what I've said so far is scummy and other people agree, I'll give my claim and we can get this over with. 
#76
Casey_Risk
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Hello, I'm here, getting caught up.
#77
WyIted
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@Savant
What are you doing? We are 3 pages in. I appreciate the effort but hopefully these aren't hard reads this early on. What decade did your show originally air?
#78
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@Mikal
It’s logical. Dayphase 1 is largely useless. Best way to play it is no lynch if even or lynch if odd. 
You think so? Personally, I'm in favor of the town almost always trying to lynch someone except possibly at MYLO. (I didn't use to feel that way, but I've come to accept it as the best strategy overall.)
#79
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@WyIted
What are you doing? We are 3 pages in. I appreciate the effort but hopefully these aren't hard reads this early on.
They're not. The probabilities are all very close to 70%.

What decade did your show originally air?
2000s.
#80
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I kind of understand what Mikal is saying about Banana, but tbh I don't agree. Banana's suggestion for softclaims to get the ball rolling feels quite genuine to me, and her back-and-forth with Mikal helps my town lean on her. It doesn't remind me of her scum play, when she seemed fairly irritable and aggressive. Granted, she's only been scum once so far, so sample size of one, but it's still a diversion from her scum play, but not her town play.
#81
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As for my, my show actually premiered after 2000. You all know the host, I guarantee it.
#82
WyIted
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@Savant
So cash cab?
#83
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
Joe Rogan?
#84
WyIted
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Joe Rogan hosted like 10 game shows so a few people likely have him
#85
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@WyIted
So cash cab?
Maybe
#86
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@Savant
Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
For another player, I might agree with this logic, but I actually don't think Banana would likely start off with a joke or something fluffy like most would. I do townread her for other reasons, though.

I know it’s WIFOM, but if this post is alignment indicative (not convinced it is), I think the intent is to appear unafraid of gaining attention and hence towny, especially since WyIted is usually given a pass for such posts. Which in turn makes it a strategic move for scum.
I feel like that's NAI coming from Wylted specifically.

I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste.
Nobody would like automatically being pressured every game tbf. I myself have said that I hate this idea and think it's an incredibly lame and boring meta. (see Sopranos Mafia DP1 for a back and forth between me and Bullish about this topic.)
#87
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@WyIted
You're free to come to your own conclusions about who I may be referring to.
#88
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@Savant
It was the only one I could think of from that era. I feel like most gameshows started before reality TV was a thing. 

But then again Joe Rogan had fear factor and a few others I guess even though I almost don't consider them game shows and of course it doesn't count as starting after 2000 if it restarted after 2000 IMO
#89
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@Casey_Risk
Half the people here are 18 so he's the only possibility nobody here knows bob Barker or pat shack or Orlando Bloom
#90
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Shack = Sajack