Game Show Mafia DP2

Author: Lunatic

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Savant
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@AustinL0926
You and only you should add a vote to Moozer. Then I will hammer when I get the chance.
Moozer325
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@Mikal
The fact that you're just expecting us to blindly trust you makes me scum-read you more. Your not in a position where we can trust you that much. You're behavior hasn't been super town, and I've got no reason to blindly write you off as town.

Mharman
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@ILikePie5
The Price is Right was the oldest American TV show to obtain major success, therefore, gramps. 
Savant
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And by hammer I mean add a fifth vote.
ILikePie5
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@Savant
If scum have the politician, then we lynch Earth
If Mikal and WF are both town we auto lose if Earth has the politician
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@Moozer325
The fact that you're just expecting us to blindly trust you makes me scum-read you more.
Mikal is claiming he can solve the game and we can lynch him tomorrow if he's lying after he tells us everything. Also, revealing the plan to scum will likely ruin it. Either Mikal is scum and we lynch him tomorrow, or he's town and has a very good plan.
Savant
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@ILikePie5
If Mikal and WF are both town we auto lose if Earth has the politician
How?
Mikal
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I’m going to stop begging for it and yes I’m asking you to blindly trust me because I can Poe the game down and explain why I’m asking for it. If don’t make sense tomorrow you can kill me. I would not be saying this as scum because I’m offering myself up tomorrow 

I’ve all bit spoken to pie in Spanish at this point. He should be able to decipher what I’m saying and why I’m asking. 
Mikal
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@Savant
Yes. I can’t promise with certainty it works because roles always exist that alter it but I at a bare minimum can promise you I am 100 percent the safest person to have that item. 

With a very high chance I can narrow down the game
With it outside of fuckery. Assuming i don’t get yeeted which I have a plan for 
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
*Oldest American TV game show
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@Savant
How?
7-2 right now
Lynch WF it’s 5-2
Lynch Mikal it’s 3-2 
Use politician, scum have 3 votes 

Assuming both are town
Savant
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@Moozer325
Town has the numbers advantage right now. We can afford to take this chance. It's not like Mikal can end the game in one night.
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@ILikePie5
7-2 right now
Lynch WF it’s 5-2
Lynch Mikal it’s 3-2 
Use politician, scum have 3 votes 

Assuming both are town
Why would we lynch Mikal if he tells us everything tomorrow and he's telling the truth?
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@Savant
Why would we lynch Mikal if he tells us everything tomorrow and he's telling the truth?
It could be hot garbage and he has “results” or something along the lines that force another mislynch 
Savant
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@ILikePie5
I town read him though, more than I town read you
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@ILikePie5
Actually nvm, I do town read you more.
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@ILikePie5
@Mikal
You two argue this out. I do think Mikal said he'd defer to you if he doesn't convince you.
Mikal
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If he wants it he can have it. I’m not going to try and argue with pie. He’s to stubborn and it’s annoying. I’ve softed a shit ton to him already 

And there is no world where I’m lying and it makes sense.  It’s dp2 and we got scum dp1. I can tell you with 10000 percent certainty. That item is safe with me and I know how to solve the game assuming mafia don’t have a werid role which I doubt they do for balance. 
Moozer325
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@Savant
Okay, fair enough
Mikal
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Tells me he’s fine with me having it and then backpedals when I say I have a good way to use it. It’s comical. 

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@Savant
I didn't realize he had offered himself up as the Lynch if he was wrong. Must have missed it, my bad.
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@Mikal
Tells me he’s fine with me having it and then backpedals when I say I have a good way to use it. It’s comical. 
You can have it. Just know that you need to full claim first thing tomorrow and say what you did. I also won’t be 100% sold on any “results” you may have so just know that. I’m going to treat tomorrow like MYLO
Mikal
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@ILikePie5
That is fine. 

Results always vary anyway but I think we can use them for Poe. can’t promise there isnt shit that fucks with them 

But I can promise I am the safest person to have it and I can justify that with no doubt. 

But depending on certain things. There is very good chance of a solve. 
whiteflame
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Alright, so first off, I apologize for my exasperation earlier. I wasn't in the best frame of mind. I think I'm likely to get lynched anyway, but I won't join it. That will be up to all of you to execute.

If really believe that I'd look at the prizes from this and the previous DP, all of which could easily have been CC'd by several players who had not yet claimed, copy-paste them into a Wheel of Fortune setup I softed all the way back at the start of the last DP, and just claim it straight up, then clearly I'm worse at fake claiming than I thought. I do a shit job at fake claims, but I don't just steal ideas from the mod's setup and repurpose them like this. You can prove that to yourselves if you wish, I'd just prefer you give me the opportunity to give you more information to go off of when you do. If it's about getting that information before scum have the opportunity to use that Politician, then I guess I get it, even if I'd prefer we aim for scum rather than just being fine with the trade-off if I'm town.

As for the reads I promised, here are the basics:

I still think Mikal and Savant are town. Nothing's really changed from my reads last DP, even though I've been frustrated.

I'd say Moozer is pretty solid at this point as well. Assuming for a second (I don't believe this to be the case) that Earth is faking receiving his Cop role and is just hanging onto the 1X Politician, he still has no incentive to tie himself so closely to his remaining partner by faking an innocent result. Much as I think it's valid to test his Popular claim, I can't see much reason to believe he'd be scum.

Banana is likely town. Maybe she's faking what she did, but if something different did happen as a result of her night action, Savant hasn't said anything about it. It's not a guarantee, but it's evidence from where I'm sitting that she's likely telling the truth about her role, which makes her town.

Austin's role claim makes it pretty likely he's town, even if it's not a guarantee. It might have to be proven at some point and it's not necessarily town aligned even if it is, but behaviorally, Austin's been consistent with his town play.

Pie's been more of a behavioral read throughout and he still is. I'd say he's been a townread for most of the game, even if some of his takes on Moozer and Earth earlier in the DP are hard to follow.

Earth remains a bit of an uncertainty for me. Clearing another player reduces PoE, but it also might be a tactic to gain towncred. That being said, the more I've thought about it, the more likely the Soldier claim is real. I just don't buy that Earth would go with something like that as scum. He's my slightest townread.

Mharman remains my only scumread. I wish I could say I have a trio worked out with WyIted, but I don't. I regret not targeting him during the last NP, but what was putting me off of it was his sus on WyIted, which started relatively early. Nonetheless, I've just seen him a lot more frustrated and less forthcoming this game, and I could absolutely see a world where he and WyIted were putting some distance between each other in DP1. That kind of thing has fooled me before.


Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Moozer- 3/5- pie, earth, Mikal



Earth
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I'm going to sleep. I'll unvote for now.
Mharman
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@Savant
  • #321 - SL - This post is pretty verbose, and rambling a bit is often a scum tell. Also could be planting potential seeds for a lynch without committing.
Rambling? I felt every paragraph touched on a good point. And if you wanna talk about posts like this: so many players, myself included, have done this before as town.

Here is an example of another player doing something similar as town.
And here is an example of me doing it as town.
And here is Casey doing it this very game.

This is the problem with using only the most recent town and scum game for each player. Not only do you have a sample size of 1, you also have a recency bias.


  • #799#831#886 - TL - Town reads WyIted early on, might have been trying to avoid a hammer on him but still worth a slight town read
*scumread but yeah

Btw you can use post 291 which is a lot earlier than your examples here. 301 307 and 310 on the next page are good too

  • #885 - SL - Waiting to hammer on scum while claiming he might is suspicious. And since WyIted wanted to post notes, it’s possible they decided that notes from Mharman would look less suspect
If you’re talking about 883 from wylted, 1. Reads =/= notes. 2. I had been working on those notes for hours, hence why they got cut off at post 631 cause I had to cut my reading short once I saw what was going on in thread. I’m not gonna decide that wylted posting notes would look suspect and then type my own notes in only 5 minutes lol

It’s almost as if, because I worked so hard on those, I wanted to finish what I was doing… there’s no point in me delaying Wylted’s obvious lynch for something other than this, and again, I had said I was going to vote wylted… which would’ve been after I was done. Earth simply beat me to it.

  • #911#919 - SL - Taking credit like this and retroactively adding a town read seems very opportunistic and not really honest since the credit is split among a lot of people, including the lynch train that Mharman wasn’t even on.
My vote is not necessary if my thoughts got the rest of town to sus wylted and pressure him into the mistake that got him lynched

459 Pie sees my thoughts and agrees
And later Banana and Whiteflame echo similar sentiments to what I had in the 600s

I felt like I had influenced the thought processes of town as a whole, and therefore, deserved credit for the lynch.

And again, I had one of the earliest susses, and would’ve voted for him anyway. The assumption that I wouldn’t have started a wylted train of my own if there wasn’t already one is also funny. You’d think that since I was sussing him the whole DP, I’d be inclined to do so lol. But you noticing that requires you to not interpret everything I do in the worst faith possible

The funny thing about this is you accuse me of doing some distance play that I was gonna eventually back out of, but nope. At no point did I even consider changing my read on Wylted, and you can see that going through my posts DP1.

  • #137 - SL - Misremembering role name and claiming a role that is typically scum aligned.
Idr where I pulled Oracle from, but looking at the role, it can reveal something about people visiting the pamper with the role, so that’s probably where the confusion was

If you need an example where I got confused like this as town, Paper Mario Mafia. I got tracker/watcher confused.

Oh, and I’m not sure why you’re ignoring Pie’s point about he how was a town gramps in Villainous Villains, 

  • #184#193#246#251 - SL - Mharman’s anger here is not really logical and I only see it coming from scum on the verge of losing, given how well the town is doing.
No, I get irritated when I think a read on me is ridiculous, and angry when someone doubles down on his bad read. Especially when I think I should be widely townread, if not confirmed. Check last game.
Mharman
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Ok I’m done with him.

I did finally read the rest of what was going on this DP.

Pie made an interesting point about Banana. Joe Rogan is certainly someone we all know. Problem is I do townread her behavior.

And as for Moozer and Austin. Idk. I get the sense the incentives for both would be NOT to claim the one person who didn’t answer. So the fact that one of them did knowing they would just be CCd is baffling.
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@Mikal
Oh dear god shut up And deal with me tomorrow if I’m lying. We hit scum on dp1. If Im scum and use it, it’s glaring fucking obvious you dipshit 
hmmmm. I think it will be, although not for the reasons you stated…
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*implied with what you stated