Reads so far:
1. Lunatic - Strengthener - Lean town
Initial scum read was based on a lack of behavioral analysis, hyperfocusing on roles and stuff like that, and having a hard-on for Supa for what seemed to me to be spurious reasons. As I reread the DP I realized I initially scumread Mikal for the role fixation as well but was clearly proven wrong by the town confirmation. Maybe the meta has really changed since I last played. As for the Supa lynch, the fact that I was wrong about the fake claims makes Luna's position seem a lot more reasonable.
2. Mikal/Castin - Town confirmed
3. Ultra - Null/Lean Scum
I would really like to see more activity from Ultra, it's incredibly paltry.
4. Whiteflame - Null/Lean Town
His reasoning seems town-motivated and genuine overall, but it's just a gauzy impression at this point and I think he's a good enough player to fool me. Been waffling on it all day.
5. Pie - ?
Asking for feedback on Pie from players who are more familiar with his style. Is he normally so bombastic? The very brazen and decisive reads make me lean town because scum are usually more risk-averse DP1 but is this just his playstyle?
7. Casey - Null
I'm just not confident in my ability to read Casey. I've heard that he's a good player and I'm not at all familiar with his playstyle, and he's being very reserved. I do agree with a lot of what he posts but he also could be buddying me, which I'm paranoid about.
8. Savant - Lean Town
He's the only inactive with a really good excuse, and the vanilla counterclaim just strikes me as something that scum wouldn't do. You put yourself in a potential 1v1 and risk a third vanilla claim coming out of the woodwork for... what?
9. Vader - Lean scum
Now that I'm not longer eliminating the possibility of him coming up with a fake claim his behavior seems a lot more plausible from a scum motivation standpoint. I'd like to hear more from him on his claim.
10. Irontoaster - Pressure Plate - JOAT: 3x Cop, 1x Poisoner, 1x Bomb Null/Lean scum
One of the reasons that I didn't articulate at the time when I was trying to get a read on Tuff/Luna is that his claim really doesn't make sense to me alongside this one. If town has a strengthener, what is the point if the cop is also a bomb? The role is already of limited use to town, the one person you'd want to use it on is the cop, but with this role doing that would be suicide. And since when is poisoner a town role? At first I town read Iron for this very bizarre and brazen claim but what if scum was given cop as a fake claim? This would be a really good way to both dissuade investigation and explain watcher results/deaths. Unless town has a lot of non-cop investigative roles it all makes little sense to me.
That said, half this read is due to inactivity and the other half is due to me now believing that Luna is more town than Iron is. He's said he will be more active, and I look forward to being able to get a better read on him.
11. Joebob - Null
I'd really like more reads and feedback on behavior from Joebob, his activity hasn't generated a lot of that and he seems to be on the periphery of every discussion.
12. Wylted - Null/Lean Town
If I recall correctly, Wylted plays quite brutally as scum and is willing to bus scummates who aren't pulling their weight and is also not shy about pushing mislynches. Correct me if he's changed his playstyle over the years. But I can't see that Wylted going against the grain on the Supa wagon the way that he has. If Supa was scum Wylted would have bussed his ass and if he was town he wouldn't be going against the grain to tap the brakes on that wagon.
13. Banana - Null
I'd really like more activity from Banana. She did at least give reads, which was more than we've gotten from the other inactives, but if I don't hear more from her by the end of today it will start to become a bit suspicious.
14. Cerulean - Null/Lean Scum
I still think the opening post was suspicious, and I haven't heard enough to solidify a read. The quieter he becomes the more suspicious I become. I'd really like Cerulean to pipe up. He said he was catching up earlier. His early reads of Mikal did make sense to me but then the activity dropped off a cliff.
I'd prefer lynching one of the more inactive players as I think that scum is more likely to be hiding there DP1, but I would settle for a Supa lynch. I hate no-lynching DP1 because it's one less flip to shed light on DP1 behaviors during DP2. I don't care about the math.
