Pokemon Mafia D2

Author: warren42 4 years ago

Posts

Total: 652

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:15AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:15AM

-->

@Wylted

Oh well I was just analyzing that one post you made when you asked for it, I can analyze the chance of scum if you lay out the evidence and what not like you did in the other post, I need all the hypotheses and the possible evidence that we get from lynching, as well as all of the evidence that we already have

Debates: 34

Posts: 5,754

3

4

11

08.03.2019 03:19AM

3

4

11

08.03.2019 03:19AM

I know you are likely wondering why I can't just give less than 100% but as hard is this is to believe debating seriously takes a lot out me. I get physically scared to see my opponent's arguments and refuse to read their last round. I get scared when posting mine of how stupid I must appear for my shitty essay. I have a panic attack almost everytime I face a strong debater while reading their rebuttals. I have some form of OCD which results in extreme perfectionism. I honestly have to fight the urge to put a bullet in my head for being imperfect. I feel like I am not worthy of love and that to avoid being hated I must be perfect. I let my true self out here a bit, but I can not do that conpletely

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:22AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:22AM

-->

@Wylted

Is water a path you would explore lynching?

POE lynches are best when they eliminate someone that is under some suspicion. Ultimately, then, I don't see water as a better alternative than Mhar or Club unless neither of those lynches can be feasibly secured.

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:31AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:31AM

I am on page 18 right now as I catch up. Not liking Pie's tunneling on Club. Club isn't the only player worthy of scrutiny right now.

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:31AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:31AM

-->

@bsh1

Not sure why you're asking grey, I'm the math guy here lol

Hypothesis: Club is town (50%)

Evidence: Mharman is town (100%)

P(H|E)=P(E|H)/P(E) * P(H)

So we just need to know what P(E|H) is, or what the probability Mharman being town is given that club is town. I'm going off of Wylted's outline here. If Club is town, he likely isn't lying about poison doctor, but Mharman could protect him as either scum or town, so that doesn't tell us much. However, if he was scum, I don't think that he would be arguing with literally everyone over Club. That, in my mind, would be about 75% assurance that he's town in that case.

P(E|H) = 75%

P(H|E)=.75/1 * .5 = 37.5%

So there is about a 37.5% chance of Club being town if Mharman is proved to be town

If you disagree with my evaluation of P(E|H), you can figure with it and come up with a different answer

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:32AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:32AM

-->

@Mharman

Can you blame Club for trusting only me when the other two asking for claims are the ones he believes are scum?

Yes, I can. Because if Club is town, he should be acting in town's best interests, and not ingratiating himself to those who advocate his innocence.

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:32AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:32AM

-->

@Speedrace

I am asking Grey because I want to know his subjective assessment. I am in interested in what he is thinking, not what the actual math is.

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:33AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:33AM

fiddle with it*

Almost edited the post lol

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:34AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:34AM

-->

@ILikePie5

No, Mharman can be confirmed backup next time someone is poisoned. We have to lynch Club to be able to exonerate Mharman

Why does this read to me as a ploy to get rid of a protective role? Better to risk losing a UB than a PD, IMHO.

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:37AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:37AM

-->

@ILikePie5

If Mharman is leading him then if Club flips innocent then it proves there was zero planning with their comments and it was pure coincidence. Now if Mharman is the backup and that’s a big if, he can be confirmed by saving the next Poison victim.

Explain/rephrase please.

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:40AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:40AM

-->

@ILikePie5

It makes sense, but you have to factor in that Club is effectively useless at this game.

You're way too eager for this lynch, as is Grey.

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:43AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:43AM

-->

@Speedrace

So, like Wylted said, we learn a bit more from a Mharman lynch

I have just one thing to say...

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:48AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:48AM

-->

@bsh1

Math rules the world dude lol

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:51AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:51AM

-->

@Speedrace

Math is the devil in written form.

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:53AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 03:53AM

-->

@warren42

Vote count, por favor?

Debates: 4

Posts: 23,035

3

4

10

08.03.2019 03:56AM

3

4

10

08.03.2019 03:56AM

-->

@bsh1

read post #497. I have some sketchy logic pointing toward Club as town, and Mharman as scum riding on town coattails.

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:58AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 03:58AM

-->

@bsh1

Math owns my heart <3

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:00AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:00AM

-->

@Speedrace

Gayyyyy

Debates: 4

Posts: 23,035

3

4

10

08.03.2019 04:00AM

3

4

10

08.03.2019 04:00AM

-->

@bsh1

If loving BSH is wrong, I don't wanna be right.

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:02AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:02AM

-->

@Greyparrot

I have some sketchy logic pointing toward Club as town, and Mharman as scum riding on town coattails.

And the significance of this is...?

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:03AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:03AM

-->

@Greyparrot

<3

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:04AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:04AM

Here's another evaluation (not mathematical though)...

So about Pie, he does seem to want the lynch to be over, and has been hammering Club for a while

Grey claimed Vanilla when two people have already claimed it (me and Wylted), however, given the high volume of towns, I don't think that's indicative of being scum

I'm thinking that Pie is scum as well, although I won't suggest that we lynch him just yet, but I think he should be our next choice

Also, I don't think I've seen Mharman or Pie disagree all that much...although I know Mharman and Grey have, just saying

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:05AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:05AM

-->

@bsh1

aRE yoU asSuMINg maTH's GEndeR?

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:08AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:08AM

-->

@Speedrace

Math is obviously genderqueer.

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:10AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:10AM

-->

@bsh1

Hypothesis: Math is genderqueer (50%)

Evidence: bsh said so (100%)

P(H|E)=P(E|H)/P(E) * P(H)

P(E|H): Math being gender queer has no reflection on whether bsh said or not AKA 0%

P(H|E)=0/1 * .5 = 0%

The math says otherwise ;)

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:12AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:12AM

Baye's Theorem is my new superpower XD, where has this been all of my life

Debates: 14

Posts: 2,589

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:13AM

5

5

8

08.03.2019 04:13AM

-->

@Speedrace

That makes no sense...

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:17AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:17AM

-->

@bsh1

Lol

Debates: 4

Posts: 23,035

3

4

10

08.03.2019 04:30AM

3

4

10

08.03.2019 04:30AM

-->

@bsh1

Did you read my post? What are your collective thoughts on 497? I value your opinion.

Debates: 63

Posts: 6,283

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:34AM

4

9

11

08.03.2019 04:34AM

-->

@Greyparrot

If it's worth anything, I agree with it