Could Donald Trump win re-election?

Author: Exile

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Imabench
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Point me to a source that says on ELECTION DAY not inaugural day.
1) Trump's presidency began on his inauguration day not on election day itself. Popularity on election day and any point before the actual inauguration day itself is irrelevant, especially before the person in question has even stepped foot in the White House..... 

2) Your sources all compare Trump's favorability to that of Hillary Clinton's from the election day polls, not a neutral baseline standard for which popularity is to be measured, which you promptly failed to understand and wrap your brain around in addition to a vast majority of everything else in this conversation. 


You clearly do not know what a honeymoon period is. You can’t quantify it cause it varies for each President
Sure you can quantify it. A honeymoon period for a president is the period of time at the beginning of a first term that normally varies anywhere from six to months to a year where the general public shows higher approval of a president in terms of job performance, before shifting back towards 50% as the term proceeds..... For Obama it was about a year, for Bush W it was 3 years (though the 9/11 attacks completely reset the starting points early on in his term), For Bill Clinton it was 8 months (https://news.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx) for Reagan and Carter it was about a year, and for Ford it was about 3 months  (https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx)

Trump meanwhile out of the gate started with disapproval ratings above 44%, which promptly jumped up to 50% in barely a month, and from that point on has always been underwater. 


 The point I made was that the numbers are inflated on inaugural day compared to what the people actually think about the President
That's not the case though..... It's simply your belief that those numbers are inflated and that Trump is more popular than what current polls imply because of your lack of understanding on where to begin measuring his popularity and how to measure it properly to begin with
ILikePie5
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1) Trump's presidency began on his inauguration day not on election day itself. Popularity on election day and any point before the actual inauguration day itself is irrelevant, especially before the person in question has even stepped foot in the White House..... 
So you concede that I was right when I said Trump is more popular today than on Election Day 2016 right? Glad we agree.


2) Your sources all compare Trump's favorability to that of Hillary Clinton's from the election day polls, not a neutral baseline standard for which popularity is to be measured, which you promptly failed to understand and wrap your brain around in addition to a vast majority of everything else in this conversation. 

And if you look back I specifically said that Trump has to keep his opponent’s approvals underwater as well. Glad we agree on that as well.

Sure you can quantify it. A honeymoon period for a president is the period of time at the beginning of a first term that normally varies anywhere from six to months to a year where the general public shows higher approval of a president in terms of job performance, before shifting back towards 50% as the term proceeds..... For Obama it was about a year, for Bush W it was 3 years (though the 9/11 attacks completely reset the starting points early on in his term), For Bill Clinton it was 8 months (https://news.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx) for Reagan and Carter it was about a year, and for Ford it was about 3 months  (https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx)

Obama and Bush were more popular than Trump on Election Day hence their approval on inaugural’s day would be significantly higher than Trump’s. 50% has no meaning since their approval rating were well above Trump’s inherently Trump’s are gonna be lower than those two since he was less popular in Election Day. 

Trump meanwhile out of the gate started with disapproval ratings above 44%, which promptly jumped up to 50% in barely a month, and from that point on has always been underwater. 

Cause his approvals on Election Day were crap, he’s bound to have less approvals than Obama or Bush or the others.


That's not the case though..... It's simply your belief that those numbers are inflated and that Trump is more popular than what current polls imply because of your lack of understanding on where to begin measuring his popularity and how to measure it properly to begin with

Im saying the honeymoon period numbers are inflated, which you clearly agree with lol.

Youve conceded that Trump is more popular today than on Election Day. Checkmate.
Imabench
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@ILikePie5
Jesus Christ, you're completely fucking illiterate arent you?

I cant imagine how much of an utter dumbass you have to be in order to view challenges + complete takedowns of your arguments as somehow being concessions and agreements, but somehow you have managed to achieve the right combination of both ineptitude and stupidity to pull it off. 

Do yourself a favor, along with the rest of society, next time you think you know what you're talking about for once in your life, just stick to coloring books and other activities that help develop basic cognitive skills, because you need all the help you can get. 




Pinkfreud08
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@Imabench
I mean I understand that IlikePie is clearly misrepresenting your overall points and it's frustrating however there is no need to be this rude and hostile. 
ILikePie5
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@Imabench
Jesus Christ, you're completely fucking illiterate arent you? 

I cant imagine how much of an utter dumbass you have to be in order to view challenges + complete takedowns of your arguments as somehow being concessions and agreements, but somehow you have managed to achieve the right combination of both ineptitude and stupidity to pull it off. 

Do yourself a favor, along with the rest of society, next time you think you know what you're talking about for once in your life, just stick to coloring books and other activities that help develop basic cognitive skills, because you need all the help you can get. 

Womp womp. Looks like someone can’t concede. Oh and btw liberals are the ones that need safe spaces and coloring books not conservatives. Help your own people.
ILikePie5
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@Pinkfreud08
I mean I understand that IlikePie is clearly misrepresenting your overall points and it's frustrating however there is no need to be this rude and hostile. 

His overall points have nothing to do with this. My claim was that Trump is more popular today than on Election Day. You can twist it and turn it all you want, but at the end of the day that’s a fact, and I challenge you or anyone to prove otherwise. This whole argument is based upon a phrase I said - “Trump is more popular today than he was on Election Day.” 

Now you can say his approvals are still underwater compared to other Presidents. I wholeheartedly agree. But tha doesn’t change the fact that Trump is clearly more popular in swing states today than Election. 
Greyparrot
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@ILikePie5
If Trump was going to lose he would have lost in 2016 when the media had the undisputed power to gaslight most of the people into thinking the world was literally going to end the moment the orangeman came down the escalator.

After all the nothingburgers over the last 3 years, most people don't even watch mainstream media long enough to get the gaslight tingle up the leg anymore. The DNC can't rely on the msm to shill for them anymore now that they command a much smaller audience. The only people still watching the main media outlets are people who would never vote Trump even if all media was erased from the planet.
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@ILikePie5
Trump's ability to pack stadiums with people outside watching jumbotrons is a huge problem for mainstream media because every one of those people will talk to 10 other people, and some of them may wake the hell up and stop following the gaslight narratives.
Imabench
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@ILikePie5
It makes sense now that you have such a deep seeded hatred for English classes and English teachers since reading and comprehension are far and away your greatest weaknesses of the many you have..... How many remedial reading classes have you had to rightfully suffer through up to this point?
ILikePie5
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@Imabench
Oh so now I’m mentally disabled. Wow you’re ableist af. Congrats!

Imabench
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@Pinkfreud08

Stupidity deserves to be pointed out as stupidity..... If the person being stupid in the first place is too incompetent to understand their own mental shortfalls, and have no hope of being a functioning person in the future, they should at least be put on a pedestal for others to witness how not to be a complete idiot like the person in question, as has now been demonstrated very sufficiently with Pie5. 
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
Trump's ability to pack stadiums with people outside watching jumbotrons is a huge problem for mainstream media because every one of those people will talk to 10 other people, and some of them may wake the hell up and stop following the gaslight narratives.

Tell that to Mr. Ableist. 
ILikePie5
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@Imabench
Stupidity deserves to be pointed out as stupidity..... If the person being stupid in the first place is too incompetent to understand their own mental shortfalls, and have no hope of being a functioning person in the future, they should at least be put on a pedestal for others to witness how not to be a complete idiot like the person in question, as has now been demonstrated very sufficiently with Pie5. 

You’re stupid, there, I called you out for it.
Imabench
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@ILikePie5
Oh so now I’m mentally disabled

The exact words I usedto describe you were that you were illiterate and a dumbass, but if you want to out yourself as an actual retard then that once again kind of substantiates what I've been saying all along, and effectively explains everything about you as well. 
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@ILikePie5

Here are some Gallup Poll numbers to tell you what you probably already know.

354 days later

Lemming
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Seems to me like he should win, my reasoning is vague, but my reasoning is that ever since his election, the Democrats have fumbled at the track in which they operated.
Though,
I'd say it seems to me like the media expects him to overwhelmingly lose, So I am unsure.
Personally,
I flip flop between Trump and a third party candidate.