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@drafterman
Then how is it a 50% chance?
Survive The Killer Mafia DP1
Posts
Total:
462
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@WaterPhoenix
An SK loses if we lynch them. That's 1-in-12.
There are two, so that's 1-in-6 of lynching an SK out right.
An SK also loses if we lynch one of their targets. Each SK has two targets. So a 1-in-6 chance of lynching one of an SK's target.
Two SK's so that's a 1-in-3 change of lynching an SK target.
Combined, that's a 1-in-2 chance of lynching either an SK or one of their targets and voiding their win-con. Which, as the mod says, eliminates their ability to kill which helps everyone in the long run.
In short, VTNLing is pro-SK
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@drafterman
Ok, I agreed to not vtnl when disc asked me bout it I'll do it right now
Unvote
Reads:
Disc-town: Has been playing pro town most of this game trying to get a lynch which wouldn't really make sense if he was a serial killer
Drafter- Lean Lean town: He's basically town except for that weird part at the beginning where he said for role blockers not to use their role blocking abilities which sounded kind of serial killer like
Speed-Null: Invactive
Pie-Null: Invactive
Arose-Null: Invactive
SirAnonymus-Null: Invactive
Oromagi-Null: Invactive
AvoidDeath-Null/Lean scum: Jumped onto the vtnl train pretty quickly but I'll leave it down to inexperience
Press-Lean Scum: Has done nothing but vtnl, but he's not online so I'll comment further when he's replies to disc's question
Greyparrot-Lean Lean Scum:
VTNL is best because survivors gotta survive ;)
Started vtnl wagon and gave that reason also hasn't full claimed which is something that he does as scum or town so I guess it's not really taht important, but still
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@drafterman
There is no reason to vtl right now. Like Water said, if we vote it would probably be completely random.
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@AvoidDeath
There is no reason to vtl right now. Like Water said, if we vote it would probably be completely random.
Agreed, that is what this is. It is a RL.
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@WaterPhoenix
Drafter- Lean Lean town: He's basically town except for that weird part at the beginning where he said for role blockers not to use their role blocking abilities which sounded kind of serial killer like
I don't remember saying this.
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@drafterman
An SK loses if we lynch them. That's 1-in-12.There are two, so that's 1-in-6 of lynching an SK out right.An SK also loses if we lynch one of their targets. Each SK has two targets. So a 1-in-6 chance of lynching one of an SK's target.Two SK's so that's a 1-in-3 change of lynching an SK target.Combined, that's a 1-in-2 chance of lynching either an SK or one of their targets and voiding their win-con. Which, as the mod says, eliminates their ability to kill which helps everyone in the long run.
This seems to make a lot of sense.
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@drafterman
Banking on doc protections, role blocks or bus drivers seems like a bad gamble.
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@drafterman
An SK loses if we lynch them. That's 1-in-12.There are two, so that's 1-in-6 of lynching an SK out right.An SK also loses if we lynch one of their targets. Each SK has two targets. So a 1-in-6 chance of lynching one of an SK's target.Two SK's so that's a 1-in-3 change of lynching an SK target.Combined, that's a 1-in-2 chance of lynching either an SK or one of their targets and voiding their win-con. Which, as the mod says, eliminates their ability to kill which helps everyone in the long run.
Thanks- too small of a chance to VTL a SK straight out...
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@WaterPhoenix
I'm not suggesting that roleblockers don't use their abilities, I'm simply saying survivors shouldn't hold out hopes that they will be saved by a lucky roleblock.
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@AvoidDeath
What % would you be comfortable with?
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@drafterman
Over 51% lmao
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@AvoidDeath
Well, from any non-SK POV, it is.
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@drafterman
what? i dont get it
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@drafterman
Can you explain the chances again?
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@AvoidDeath
The numbers I provided are independent of POV. When you look at it from a specific, non-SK point of view they change.
Instead of the probability of hitting an SK being 2 in 12, it's actually 2 in 11 because you wouldn't count yourself.
This makes the overall odds of ruining an SK day 2/11 + 1/3 or 51.51...%
I get that this isn't much comfort to you, being the target of a VTL, but from an objective standpoint it is a solid argument for a RL. If you have a better target, maybe we can agree on that.
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@drafterman
Yeah, that's why your lean lean town not just lean town but lean lean town. I thought it was probably a hiccup too but you know it is mafia after all gotta be as paranoid as possible
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@WaterPhoenix
Hey, it's mafia, not survivor lol
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@drafterman
Instead of the probability of hitting an SK being 2 in 12, it's actually 2 in 11 because you wouldn't count yourself.
You would still have to count yourself because you could be an SK target.
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@drafterman
Ohhh, I get it now.
The chances are slightly over 51% in the Survivor's point of view. Well that changes my "VTL chance" to over 52%.
The chances are slightly over 51% in the Survivor's point of view. Well that changes my "VTL chance" to over 52%.
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@SirAnonymous
You would still have to count yourself because you could be an SK target.
That's why the +1/3 doesn't change. You discount yourself from the "hitting an SK" calculation which changes it from 2/12 to 2/11.
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@drafterman
@WaterPhoenix
I'm not suspicious of anyone right now, cause obviously most people aren't active.
I just realized something that makes a random lynch even more attractive. We would also have a chance of killing mafia. If we take out both of them, our odds of winning increase.
That's why the +1/3 doesn't change. You discount yourself from the "hitting an SK" calculation which changes it from 2/12 to 2/11.
Ok, I get it now.
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@SirAnonymous
But aren't the chances of killing mafia in a Random Lynch pretty low? I say we VTNL until NP1 passes, and see who dies in the night.
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@AvoidDeath
Killing mafia only matters if you're town or sk.
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@drafterman
you know what? i don't even know how this game goes. just continue and i'm gonna silently weep in a corner full of shame and embarrasment for not knowing how to play.
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@AvoidDeath
This is a fairly interesting setup. We're going to have to design a brand new play book.
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@drafterman
Yeah, I'll try to get better as the game goes on.