Survive The Killer Mafia DP1

Author: Mharman

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#121
Discipulus_Didicit
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@PressF4Respect
Okay I have decided to adjust my strategy slightly in light of Mharmans answer to me. Rather than trying to not piss off the mafia or SKs I am going to follow what everyone else seems to be doing and be openly anti-SK. This is because I now know that the SK knows who their targets are, meaning they are unlikely to shoot me just for being against them and will probably instead shoot their targets (which might be me, but that is also a risk I take by not being anti-SK).

I still want to lynch today. VTNLing is, as others have said, extremely pro-SK.
#122
SirAnonymous
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I still want to lynch today. VTNLing is, as others have said, extremely pro-SK.
Maybe, but there is also a high risk of lynching someone who would otherwise be useful, like a doctor.


#123
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Did you read what I wrote?

#124
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@PressF4Respect
What I was saying in my argument is that the problem with random lynching is that it adversely affects us as well.

It would be very difficult to run a classic  "DDmafia scenario simulation (TM)" because of the large number of factions and the chance of killing roles choosing the same target to kill, etc. Difficult but not impossible. I won't do it now but might later.

Consider this though... There is a 40% chance that you are on a Serial Killers kill list. If they decide who to kill off of their list randomly that is a 20% chance of you not waking up tomorrow due to an SK killing you. There is also the chance that mafia might decide that you advocating a pro-SK VTNL makes it likely that you are an SK so they might shank you.

If you help secure a lynch lynch then there is a chance that we hit an SK and if we hit an SK then the chances of you being on an SK kill list drops to 20% and reduced the chance of the mafia thinking you are an SK by following an anti-SK strategy.

On the other hand I don't see how the death of anyone that isn't you would 'adversely affect' you. Could you be more specific by detailing a potential scenario as I just did?
#125
Discipulus_Didicit
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@PressF4Respect
Did you read what I wrote?

Yes, and was in the process of writing my response when you sent this lol.
#126
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Catching up now
#127
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@PressF4Respect
Let me also make it clear that I am very rarely in favor of random lynching and this is one of the times that I am not. I am in favor of lynching but not randomly.
#128
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@drafterman
My understanding is that the Survivors don't win or lose as a team, you win or lose individually. Survivors have no incentive to protect or kill any other survivor unless they pose a threat. I would say that deliberately going after the protective roles and siding with the killing roles puts all survivors in danger.

+1

The problem here is that survivors aren’t affiliated with town, mafia, nor SK, yet they outnumber all of them. Early game it’s impossible to tell but any and all text will likely be used to distort the characterizations based on which side each survivor thinks will win the game.
#129
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@AvoidDeath
I am a survivor.

Are you new?
#130
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@drafterman
They're unlikely to stop anyone

Chances increase with Mafia Busdriver
#131
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@drafterman
An SK loses if we lynch them. That's 1-in-12.
There are two, so that's 1-in-6 of lynching an SK out right.

An SK also loses if we lynch one of their targets. Each SK has two targets. So a 1-in-6 chance of lynching one of an SK's target.
Two SK's so that's a 1-in-3 change of lynching an SK target.

Combined, that's a 1-in-2 chance of lynching either an SK or one of their targets and voiding their win-con. Which, as the mod says, eliminates their ability to kill which helps everyone in the long run.

I like this, but as a survivor, I’ll take my chances
#132
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Okay I have decided to adjust my strategy slightly in light of Mharmans answer to me. Rather than trying to not piss off the mafia or SKs I am going to follow what everyone else seems to be doing and be openly anti-SK. This is because I now know that the SK knows who their targets are, meaning they are unlikely to shoot me just for being against them and will probably instead shoot their targets (which might be me, but that is also a risk I take by not being anti-SK).

I still want to lynch today. VTNLing is, as others have said, extremely pro-SK.

I’d say Policy is an inactive, what say you?
#133
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@AvoidDeath
If you're a survivor, then you should probably VTNL, cause aiming for the SK in DP1 would backfire on you in almost all cases. I'm still suspicious of you.

If you’re a survivor you vote for anyone but yourself lmao
#134
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@ILikePie5
I’d say Policy is an inactive, what say you?

No. Lynch either someone that is suspected of being a serial killer or someone that advocates a pro-SK VTNL strategy.

Why on Earth would we random lynch in this situation?
#135
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I’ll explain my position soon. Right now I have a debate argument due in 1 hour
#136
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Yes, and was in the process of writing my response when you sent this lol.
Lol


#137
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@Discipulus_Didicit
No. Lynch either someone that is suspected of being a serial killer or someone that advocates a pro-SK VTNL strategy.
This everyone but you, me, and Drafter I think.


Why on Earth would we random lynch in this situation?

With us three eliminated we can effectively eliminate an SK killing ability.
#138
SirAnonymous
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Lynch either someone that is suspected of being a serial killer or someone that advocates a pro-SK VTNL strategy.
Oh dear. It looks like we have the "VTNL is pro-survivor" camp versus the "VTNL is pro-SK" camp. Personally, I think good arguments can be made either way, but arguing that players should be suspected based on which camp they pick is ridiculous. No one knows how this set-up will work. No one knows which strategy is best. Consequently, no one is being scummy by picking one over the other.


#139
drafterman
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@PressF4Respect
I just realized something.

“Survivors win by being alive when mafia meets their objective, town meets their objective, or all living serial killers have met their objective.”

Simply lynching SK targets isn’t going to work (at least if you guys want to win, assuming that you guys are survivors), because if any SK lives to the end and fails their objective, that means we lose too. This reduces the chances that we cripple SK without also making ourselves lose to 2/11. Coupled with the 5/6 chance of shooting ourselves (anti-SK) in the foot, it’s clear that random voting won’t work.

Again, I’m completely willing to change my mind, but as I see it right now, VTNLing is the smartest thing to do.
The problem with this is there is a 40% chance you are an SK target. Ignoring the SKs all fine and dandy if you are a survivor that isn't a target (since they have no incentive to kill you, but you have no way of knowing if that is the case.

#140
Discipulus_Didicit
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@SirAnonymous
Personally, I think good arguments can be made either way, but arguing that players should be suspected based on which camp they pick is ridiculous. No one knows how this set-up will work. No one knows which strategy is best. Consequently, no one is being scummy by picking one over the other.

I would agree in principle except that I have yet to hear any good arguments that VTNLing is pro-survivor. Press says he will give one and I trust that he will - He is not lying about having a debate argument due soon - but in the meantime how about you give your thoughts?

Also, are you claiming anti-SK survivor or just-trying-to-stay-on-everyones-good-side survivor? I was the latter for the first few pages then switched to being the former.
#141
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@ILikePie5
With us three eliminated we can effectively eliminate an SK killing ability.

I would prefer a politically-motivated lynch via lynching one of the people that are trying to VTNL (unless they can convince me that it is in my interest to VTNL).

If I can't get enough support from the pro-lynch squad to lynch someone in the anti-lynch squad then I would be willing to hear the arguments in favor of lynching someone else but I am unlikely to be happy with lynching at random.
#142
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@PressF4Respect
If they're the enemy then why are we not trying to lynch them? Doctors are no doubt going to heal themselves so we don't need them. Also, do we have to fill all win conditions or just one? Your other arguments are pretty strong though and at this point, I could be persuaded to either side.
#143
SirAnonymous
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@Discipulus_Didicit
PressF made this case for vtnl.
I just realized something.

“Survivors win by being alive when mafia meets their objective, town meets their objective, or all living serial killers have met their objective.”

Simply lynching SK targets isn’t going to work (at least if you guys want to win, assuming that you guys are survivors), because if any SK lives to the end and fails their objective, that means we lose too. This reduces the chances that we cripple SK without also making ourselves lose to 2/11. Coupled with the 5/6 chance of shooting ourselves (anti-SK) in the foot, it’s clear that random voting won’t work.

Again, I’m completely willing to change my mind, but as I see it right now, VTNLing is the smartest thing to do.
Personally, I'm not sure. The arguments from both sides are compelling.
Also, are you claiming anti-SK survivor or just-trying-to-stay-on-everyones-good-side survivor?
Both. I'm trying to stay on people's good sides, but I also oppose SKs. I'm just not sure whether to start trying to lynch SKs now or next DP.

#144
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@SirAnonymous
That post by PressF4 demonstrates that it is hard to joint-win with the SK due to their non-standard wincon but theath is flawed unless he is assuming a scenario where both town and mafia are eliminated because we can still joint win with one of those two factions.

#145
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theath

Should read: the math...
#146
SirAnonymous
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I'm too tired to think right now. I'll UNVOTE for the moment and think about it tomorrow.
#147
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@Discipulus_Didicit
It would be very difficult to run a classic  "DDmafia scenario simulation (TM)" because of the large number of factions and the chance of killing roles choosing the same target to kill, etc. Difficult but not impossible. I won't do it now but might later.
That would be interesting.

Consider this though... There is a 40% chance that you are on a Serial Killers kill list. If they decide who to kill off of their list randomly that is a 20% chance of you not waking up tomorrow due to an SK killing you. If you help secure a lynch lynch then there is a chance that we hit an SK and if we hit an SK then the chances of you being on an SK kill list drops to 20%.
There is a 1/6 chance of hitting an SK with a DP1 lynch. It is much more likely that we hit an SK target, someone who isn't an SK target (thus reducing the size of anti-SK coalition while doing nothing to stop SK from fulfilling their wincon), or worst of all, someone who benefits us (power roles). The potential risks that can come with a random lynch DP1 outweigh the benefits, as explained by the original argument.

There is also the chance that mafia might decide that you advocating a pro-SK VTNL makes it likely that you are an SK so they might shank you.
Possibly. But at this point, we have no idea who mafia are, let alone what they are thinking. Similarly, they are just as in-the-dark as we are about this entire situation, so they probably wouldn't jump to conclusions that quickly. Also, arguing for a DP1 VTNL is not inherently pro-SK, as demonstrated by the reasons I provided.

Right now it's 11:30pm, and I'm pretty tired, so I'll provide the rest of the argument tomorrow. GN.

#148
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@PressF4Respect
Bus drivers don't stop kills, so they are effectively useless to Survivors. Doctors have no incentive to protect anyone other than themselves, making them equally useless. A town roleblocker, while useful, only has a 36% chance of hitting an SK or Mafia, and a Mafia roleblocker only has a 40% chance of hitting an SK or town. Because of this, I don't think it's fair to compare hitting a power role to stopping an SK or SK target
#149
Speedrace
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Actually, the odds are even lower. Town has to hit the specific mafia doing the kill or the two SKs, making their odds 28%

Mafia only has to hit 2 SKs (the only scenario beneficial to survivors at least), so their odds are 20%
#150
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For anyone wanting my math

Town RB: 3 targets (killing Mafia and two SKs), 11 people to choose from (they wouldn't do themselves), 3/11 = .2727... so 27%, my bad

Mafia RB: 2 targets (only ones beneficial to survivors at least), out of 10 because they won't choose themselves or their partner, 2/10 = .2