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@Speedrace
No, you weren't putting out ideas, you put out a single, very specific idea. There was no reason to choose that specific role PM unless you were intending to push me being scum. Can't have that.
Recycled Roles Endgame! Town wins!
Posts
Total:
70
Random notes
Oromagi valued the secrecy of his role too highly. Even the most badass of roles will never win games. I have ranted on this subject previously... Roles don't win games. Lynches win games.
The popcorning out of order was frustrating. Just about everyone did this and it is very bad for a number of reasons.
Virt used the 'cop cover' concept incorrectly. Besides that I am not a huge fan of the idea in general, it has its pros and cons but I believe the pros are outweighed by the cons.
The bussing gambit here was way too risky given how far scum were from MyLo/LyLo. I think Zaradi was too desperate for "town cred" and also wrote off GP as a dead man too soon. Better play would have been to try to direct a DP 3 lynch elsewhere and allow town to lynch GP only if they are adamant about it as opposed to leading town to lynch GP.
Zaradi should have been lynched before WP based on behavior and claim analysis.
The town was overpowered. 2 scum and 9 town allows 3 mislynches but only 2 lynches were needed for scum to lose. On the other hand 3 scum would mean 2 mislynches would be allowed and 3 correct lynches needed to win. 11 player games are hard to balance. I think luna picked the right number of scum but maybe should have eased up on town PRs (disclaimer: I don't 'have access' to the doc in the OP and can't see what Zaradi or anyone who didn't claim was).
I am considering making a weekly mafia strategy thread series starting with the first four topics here (overvaluing ones role, popcorning, cop cover, and general scum play) as the first four weeks of topics.
Me in PM with lunatic DP 3:
01.31.2020 3:53PMOh I missed post 63 until now. So either the cop claim was a bus or GP is just acting incredibly scummy as town, which actually fits his town meta. Smells like a bus though given GPs fake claim and oros claim of self protection. Either way Zaradi scum af lol
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@Discipulus_Didicit
+1Zaradi should have been lynched before WP based on behavior and claim analysis.
But I knew it didn't matter anyway since Zar would just get lynched the day after
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Lunatic may have been hoping I accidentally motivate scum so they get two kills
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@Speedrace
You were acting scummy af. Your comment about drafter "not wanting you to claim" (I don't recall him actually ever saying that) and you randomly posting a koopin role (seriously why?) had me convinced you and drafter were the scum team and that you were panicking and making slips (thought drafter told you in PM not to claim then that you posted his role when you meant to post your own because you had an alignment neutral role and were therefore willing to real-claim).
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@ILikePie5
Yeah your role and mine are like vig, used responsibly they help town (even if a vig kills a townie that still sometimes helps POE) but have the potential to hurt town as well if used wrong.
What was zaradis role?
Side note: I like how everyone was totally right about the "wylted would never do that except as a scum strategy out of respect for the game" analysis. Just another example of how behavior analysis always trumps everything else.
fixd
Singularity was scum I was 100% knew it
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@Lunatic
It was def not as bastard as Speed's game, and I agree behaviour is king, which is why I probably would have lynched Zaradi after oro flipped inno.I prioritize balance to "bastarding". I think giving mafia one good fake claim isn't bastard, it's tantamount to being bastard if a town player can just say they are a character and will be automatically town confirmed too, I think giving a good fake claim or role isn't too messed up IMO. I've done it in the last like 10 games I've hosted though so at least it's been consistent lol. Peeps just gotta remember role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmations
The one scum game I played where you were mod, we weren't given fake claims, and I stopped trusting Grey's claim that you always gave fake claims when he flipped scum. I also looked through your past endgames, and didn't see fake claims mentioned in the OPs; but now I see that even though you gave mafia a cop fake claim, it isn't mentioned in the OP either. In any case I don't consider giving fake claims as bastard, I don't do it often but I've done it once for balance reasons.
Having a miller without a cop is kinda borderline. I think I may have put a mafia ninja in the game without a watcher or tracker. But what pushes it over the edge for me is that you gave mafia the cop fake claim, while having a miller.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
The town was overpowered. 2 scum and 9 town allows 3 mislynches but only 2 lynches were needed for scum to lose. On the other hand 3 scum would mean 2 mislynches would be allowed and 3 correct lynches needed to win. 11 player games are hard to balance. I think luna picked the right number of scum but maybe should have eased up on town PRs (disclaimer: I don't 'have access' to the doc in the OP and can't see what Zaradi or anyone who didn't claim was).
This was originally balanced for 13, had to cut two roles. Balancing it slightly in favor of town is always better than mafia, especially in light of the mafia win streak lately. Plus I felt like the cop claim made up for it.
I can't believe this
Meanwhile in my PM early DP 2:
01.31.2020 2:53PMI like how this DP is going. No matter who is lying I can say I called out scum DP 1. One of the perks of calling out over half the players as scum DP 1 lol.01.31.2020 2:54PMWho do you think scum is?01.31.2020 2:57PMOh I have no idea lol but let's see who I called scum DP 1... GP, oro, drafter, singu, supa... That's just off the top of my head. At least one of those has to be right, right?
For real though Zaradi was obv scum the moment WP counter-claimed him. No way WP would do that as scum.
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@Lunatic
This was originally balanced for 13, had to cut two roles. Balancing it slightly in favor of town is always better than mafia, especially in light of the mafia win streak lately. Plus I felt like the cop claim made up for it.
That's fair. Like I said 11 player game is genuinely difficult to balance and despite the balance being a bit off the actual modding was done well so no complaints here.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
thankyou
Good game guys. Sorry I wasn’t around that much. Great catch drafterman. Definitely MVP
Lol hindsight glasses are solidly glued to people's faces here.
Admittedly I think I should've waited another DP to bus grey, but I would've been fine as was if it weren't for WP's results.
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@Zaradi
Lol hindsight glasses are solidly glued to people's faces here.
Only if you think I am faking my PM (post 33).
Why kill Me NP1 if I was a used one-shot? Just due to me being confirmed town? That is a good enough reason, if that is your reason, just curious.
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@Lunatic
@Discipulus_Didicit
I think the game was slightly town-favored but not to the point of being overpowered.
Town had 1 investigative role (watcher), and 2 confirmable roles (executioner and mason).
Mafia had a roleblocker.
I did the math here: https://www.debate.org/forums/games/topic/74027/ and concluded that in a random scenario, a 11 player game with 2 scum and a town cop would result in a town win about 57% of the time.
A watcher is like a half-cop. RB in theory partially nullifies PRs. The 2 "confirmed" townies would have been priority NKs so they don't factor too much.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
You were confirmed town and I needed to be nk'ing people who I had no chance of lynching
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@Zaradi
Makes sense.
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@Bullish
Math checks out ✓
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@Bullish
In what way was the math done? How can you calculate for things like behavior?
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@Lunatic
- Full random lynch every DP.
- Town death every NP.
- 1 cop,
- Cop makes 1 investigation per night,
- Investigating mafia prompts cop to out the following DP and guarantees a mafia lynch,
- Upon lack of guilties, cop outs DP sqrt(playerCount-1),
- Inno'd players are confirmed,
- Cop and confirmed townies cannot be lynched,
- Pre-confirmed town survival rate approximated,
- If cop is about to be lynched, he outs,
- if mafia is about to be lynched, he claims cop, forcing the cop to out,
- Upon outing, cop dies,
- Confirmed townies receive priority death.
- (Note that play is not 100% optimal.)
Note line 6 would mean cop outs DP3 with 2 innos.
And line 9 means there's a chance that scum kills an inno'd town before cop outs, but this chance was approximated instead of calculated.
Behaviour is not factored.
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@Lunatic
It doesn't calculate for behavior, behavior is acknowledged to not be mathematically calculable. Good play by town will make scum more likely to be lynched and good play by scum will make town more likely to be lynched but - and this really is the important part - if whoever is playing better is more likely to win, well... that is the whole point of the game anyway.
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@Bullish
Note line 6 would mean cop outs DP3 with 2 innos.Behaviour is not factored.
Behavior is a big part of it too, also you can add almost a million different factors (Mass CC'ing Dp1 making the janitor obsolete, Virtuoso's CC, etc). impossible to math it out perfectly, but I think it favored town most by order of mislynches, since they needed four initially
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@Lunatic
I mean I completely agree, but theoretical balance is predicated on random lynches.
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@Lunatic
I loved the theme, really brought back memories.
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@drafterman
Glad you liked it, I was having lots of memories creating the game. Went through and read all of animal kingdom in the process lol behavioral analysis really isn't all that different now then it was then