US States Mafia DP2

Author: Vader 5 years ago

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@drafterman

Have you ever heard of Mafia waiving their kill at MYLO?

Depends. I've heard of them doing it when the following DP is LYLO. If it gives them a better chance of survival, then yes. If it's for some greater plot, yes. Both aren't really the norm, and most times when they waive, it's due to inactivity, or because there's only one player left who is forced to make a gamble.

Like let's say there are four players left at the end of a DP, and one of them is scum. The following DP is going to be LYLO if there is a NK, but if the mafia chooses to leave everyone alive to increase the number of players and, possibly, boost his chance of survival, he'd leave someone alive. At that point it's still MYLO.

Idk exactly what Budda is going for, but most of the time, mafia won't waive a night kill. They can, but they usually don't

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It's almost as if mafia are incentivized to never be overtly obvious in their actions. Imagine that

Scum: Hmm. It's MYLO. A townie is one vote away from being mislynched. All I have to do is hammer and win the game. Nope! That would BE TOO OVERTLY OBVIOUS.

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ON THE OTHER HAND

VTNL at MYLO isn't a terrible idea. Let's say we used the same example I used above. If the game were at four players with one mafia, it would benefit town (unless they are certain who the mafia is) to VTNL as to help narrow down the playing field. Either the mafia NKs and the game is shrunken down to 3, or the mafia just waive and try to assert dominance with a fortnite dance

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@Vaarka

Budda claims this is a thing that is SOP and happens all the time but can't provide a single example. Now he concedes that it might have happened somewhere, at least once. The point is, he's backing off once pressured because his logic doesn't hold weight.

From an objective, town POV, it is 50/50 between me and Budda. You want to flip that coin? Go right ahead.

If we VTNL, and Mafia waves their kill, and we have no investigative results: We aren't worse off.

If we VTNL, and Mafia doesn't waive their kill, and we have no investigative results: We aren't worse off.

If we VTNL, and we get investigative results: We are better off.

So the choices are: risk the game on a coin flip - or - NL and potentially increase our position. Remember, according to Budda, Mafia has to waive their NK because of logic.

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10.03.2018 04:00PM

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10.03.2018 04:00PM

Just like your analysis on me early DP. WIFOM, i I could easily just as say

It makes total sense GP died if Drafter is scum. GP was FoS'ing me for garb reasons. But nonetheless FoS'ing me, therefore his death becomes a handy thing to point to and go

"OmG hE waS FoS'iNg BudDa ThErEfoRE BuDdA iS ScuM CauSe He Died"

Ethan was FoS'ing you, but congrats, he was almost lynched yesterday, and still looks scummy as a holdover. Why would he not stay alive if he's town? But hey, it does give some nice handy WIFOM

"DrAfTeR cAnT bE ScUm BeCaUsE He WoUlD HaVe KilLeD EtHaN"

Ur WIFOM'ing. Ur whole case is WIFOM built upon an assumed SoP that would be nonsensical for mafia to follow as illustrated.

Again, do you expect the opposing team in a competition to operate in a manner that helps you win, or them win? Pro-tip: it's the second one

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10.03.2018 04:02PM

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10.03.2018 04:02PM

It makes total sense GP died if Drafter is scum. GP was FoS'ing me for garb reasons. But nonetheless FoS'ing me, therefore his death becomes a handy thing to point to and go

"OmG hE waS FoS'iNg BudDa ThErEfoRE BuDdA iS ScuM CauSe He Died"

But... I didn't do that?

Ethan was FoS'ing you, but congrats, he was almost lynched yesterday, and still looks scummy as a holdover. Why would he not stay alive if he's town? But hey, it does give some nice handy WIFOM

"DrAfTeR cAnT bE ScUm BeCaUsE He WoUlD HaVe KilLeD EtHaN"

And I didn't do that either?

Now you're just straight making up lies.

Ur WIFOM'ing. Ur whole case is WIFOM built upon an assumed SoP that would be nonsensical for mafia to follow as illustrated.

My case is, and has always been: I'm the cop. You are guilty.

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10.03.2018 04:05PM

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10.03.2018 04:05PM

this is fun to watch

How many people are just sitting back reading this? Doesn't seem like there's much activity from anyone else.

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10.03.2018 04:08PM

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Also, Budda says his primary mafia experience is from EM. But, with EM, the most popular set-up is Classic Mafia, which has a very firm SOP which includes:

Mafia Counter-Claiming Cop
Both cops outing reports
And everyone VTNLS!

http://epicmafiainfo.wikia.com/wiki/Setup_Strategies!

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10.03.2018 04:09PM

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@Vaarka

Ok, well, then be the change you want to see; be active. Inactivity only hurts town. What are you going to do with your vote?

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10.03.2018 04:12PM

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@drafterman

If we VTNL, and we get investigative results: We are better off.

No we are not better off. By what basis are those results going to become more trustable? Town is still left lynching between us at 50% probability.

Mafia has to waive their NK because of logic.

As I've said before, another possibility is we are both town. Mafia kills one of us, and oh shit, town lynches the other as a consequence. Town loses.

So no, town could end up screwed by VTNL'ing. Its not as cut and dry as "town will be no worse off regardless"

This kind of blatant misrepresentation and blatant lack of addressal of my points in why VTNL'ing at MYLO is nonsense, is ridiculous.

You really don't like that I ruined that gambit ahead of time huh? Starting to look like thats exactly what's going on here. Because,

Mafia has to waive their NK because of logic.

This doesn't even address why my points are incorrect. I also didn't say they "have" to. You'll note I said mafia is incentivized to kill if there is a player they deem should be eliminated. They also would kill if we're both town.

Both actions would net a benefit for mafia. However killing unless the above conditions are present, would result in a net harm by increasing baseline probabilities of lynching the other scum from 1 in 4 to 1 in 3.

So again, no, it's not as cut and dry as ur making it out to be.

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@drafterman

My case is, and has always been: I'm the cop. You are guilty.

And that we should VTNL. You say I'm guilty because of pure WIFOM.

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10.03.2018 04:13PM

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@Buddamoose

Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.

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@Buddamoose

You say I'm guilty because of pure WIFOM.

Because of my results. From my PM. That say that you're guilty.

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10.03.2018 04:19PM

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@drafterman

Except classic on EM is open set-up. And that strat is stupid because it falls to NK doc gambit often.

Tell me you understand that a game being open set-up as opposed to closed set-up, changes how a game generally operates?

Being open, you can guarantee neither cop claim will die. You can also guarantee it's an either/or, 1/2 base odds.

Neither of which can be guaranteed in a closed set-up game. Again, tell me you comprehend the difference between open set-up and closed set-up games?

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@Buddamoose

Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.

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10.03.2018 04:25PM

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@drafterman

Because of my results. From my PM. That say that you're guilty.

And those results could be flavored. Tell me, are you now going to propose flavors are out of the question? How would you know otherwise as a town cop?

Your reasons beyond that guilty for holding me as scum are WIFOM or "OmG hE HaS tHe AudAcITY tO PoInT oUT tHaT a vTnL is rubbish." How dare he use probabilities to point out that killing at MYLO generally harms mafia, and helps town.

Seriously, again, I'm competitions is the general expectation that the opposing team will intentionally act in a manner that largely benefits your team? Cause that's not how competition works, like at all.

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10.03.2018 04:27PM

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@Buddamoose

Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.

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10.03.2018 05:08PM

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@drafterman

idk really. Despite your disagreements, I get the feeling you're both town. That's why I mentioned you two being the only active ones. I was hoping someone would reply and I could talk to them.

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10.03.2018 05:26PM

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UVC

Drafterman (1/4) - Budda ← Vote here if you are dumb/scum

VTNL (1/4) - Drafterman ← Vote here if you are smart/town

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10.03.2018 05:44PM

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@Vaarka

Despite your disagreements, I get the feeling you're both town.

This is exactly what I've been trying to get him to consider. That we both, or one of us, could be flavored and we're both town. I even brought up by EthanG cause we're both now apparently scumreading him. Despite zero new information on EthanG being present from when he backed off that suspicion.

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10.03.2018 05:45PM

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10.03.2018 05:45PM

Budda: "You really tryna say there would be two cops in an 8 player game? Highly unlikely." Post #9

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10.03.2018 05:52PM

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10.03.2018 05:52PM

Budda: I've been trying to say that me and drafterman are both town!

Also Budda: Help me lynch Drafterman!

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Honestly, if ur gonna keep bringing up that same point Drafter. There's not much point to continuing to argue with you.

Obviously players never research game theory and SoP on DDO is gospel and always right, and following SoP totally makes someone town, even despite both you and GP VTNL'ing last game, which is still the general SoP here last i checked as VTNL's still seem to happen more often than D1 lynches.

On another note, its important to examine Drafters analysis here. Note that in his recap/analysis of my actions DP1 he points out

"he didn't vote Ethan to be lynched until later in the DP."

This implying that me voting him at that point was scummy because pressuring him earlier would have been too easy.

But this just belies an astounding lack of awareness of his own behavior. He didnt advocate for Ethan's lynch until later in the DP if he even did, cause I don't remember him doing so.

Instead he pressured Ethan early on during RVS. Unvoted when he claimed, then revoted, shortly after Pie and I did upon Pie pointing out Ethan called someone town and scum in the same post. Even then, that was just for a roleclaim.

This is shallow vote analysis that is totally unaware of his own behavior that makes him scummy for the same reason, as well as trying to pre-empt this proceeding point. That his pressure on EthanG during RVS, his backing off of that sus and revoting Pie for disgenuine reasons. Then re-SR'ing Ethan this DP despite there being no new present information to change his final disposition, all illistrates that he is scummy AF.

One common trope of the RVS is that scum players will vote for each other or otherwise start their distancing early. For some time, this was a commonly applied tell.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Random_Vote

What Drafter did with Pie also looks a hell of alot like a flashwagon.

Flashwagons are commonly held to be more likely scum-motivated, as many votes in succession can indicate carelessness or coordination.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=VCA

His VCA is weak AF

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10.03.2018 05:58PM

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@drafterman

Budda: I've been trying to say that me and drafterman are both town!

Its not my fault you are acting scummy AF and disgenuinely shading and/or blatantly lying about things.

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10.03.2018 06:00PM

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@Buddamoose

Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.

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10.03.2018 06:03PM

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10.03.2018 06:03PM

For the town, this should be the clincher right here:

Vaarka: Despite your disagreements, I get the feeling you're both (Budda and Drafter) town.

Budda: This is exactly what I've been trying to get him to consider

At this time, Budda is voting me because he believes I'm scum.

Yet, when Vaarka Town Reads the both of us, Budda jumps in, agreeing with him!

Budda is both voting me because he thinks I'm scum and agreeing with Vaarka's assessment that I'm town!

It can't be both. Not only can it not be both, but Budda's response couldn't have come from a Townie. If you're a townie. And you think someone is scum. And you're trying to get that scum lynched. And someone comes along that town reads that target, you try and convince them that their read is wrong and to join your lynch.

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10.03.2018 06:03PM

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@drafterman

"You really tryna say there would be two cops in an 8 player game? Highly unlikely

Yes, and as highly unlikely as that may be. It may still be a possibility. This possibility along with other points refutes the silly notion that VTNL'ing couldn't ever possibly backfire on town, now wouldn't it?

Again, its not my fault you are disgenuinely shading and/or blatantly lying in your recounts of events/analysis. That's your own doing. I was willing to entertain we both may be town because you were still coming across towny. You aren't anymore, now there are behavioral tells to back up that you are scum.

Please oh paragon on sensibility, please do tell us more about how opposing teams are incentivized to operate in a manner that benefits the other side, and how closed set-up games don't at all differ from open set-up games.

I'm all ears for some more of this A++ analysis of yours 😂😂

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@Buddamoose

Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.

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10.03.2018 06:06PM

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10.03.2018 06:06PM

Theory crafting means shit if you can't back it up with actual examples.