13 Reasons Why Mafia DP4

Author: ILikePie5

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BearMan (1/7) - Warren
warren42
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VTL Press

If there's a miller without a cop this is bastard modding.
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@oromagi
Unvote

Oro, are you the cop? I can't decipher your riddle.
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@warren42
agreed, which is why I like press's claim
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The objective of the cryptic claim is to lock my claim early with sufficient coding so that the claim is not revealed until I want it revealed but also make it so specific that it could not possibly be any other claim than the one I make.

Q:what do you get when you cross

an abominable snowman
+
lemon candy
+
a circus buffoon
?

YETI
+
DROP
+
CLOWN
=
YETIDROPCLOWN crossed (anagrammed)=

I, Tyler Down, COP

DP1=COPPED SupaDudz = innocent!
DP2=COPPED Speedrace=innocent!
DP3=COPPED Warren42=action failed (dudz claims RB)

I suppose I might be flavored but based on gameplay I am trusting these results
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@oromagi
Ok good.

I trust Press' claim assuming I trust yours. At this point it's either you/press as scum or you're both clear, leaning toward the latter.

Your crumb is pretty complicated and I doubt anyone would've ever gotten it but whatever.

Can you give your reasoning?
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Oromagi                                    COP                  Tyler Down
X: WaterPhoenix                      BLEEDER      WInston Williams
X: User_2006                            TRACKER            Tony Padilla 
X: Crocodile                               DOCTOR          Ani Achola                
X:
SimplyBeOurselves          MESSENGER  Dr. Robert Ellman
TOWN
SupaDudz                                DRUNK               Zach Dempsey
 Speedrace                              VISITOR   
PressF4Respect                   MILLER            Alex Standall
Warren                                    VIRGIN             Charlie_St._George

LittleCookie                          VANILLA           Amara Achola
BearMan                                 WATCHERX2  Justin_Foley

SCUM
X. RationalMadman                WATCHER X2(CC)   Tony Padilla (CC)
                                                         VANILLA  (CC)         Jessica Davis (CC)
                                                           MESSENGER (CC)   Dr. Robert Ellman (CC)
                                                       ?ACTRESS?


I consider Speed, Supa nearly confirmed.  I like Press and Warren's claim because Press came out early and both made claims that increase TOWN desire to kill.

  I don't like Cookie's claim because that character is barely barely in the season while all other claims are basically in every episode.  VANILLA should be a safe claim but everybody else has a power role so a little sus there as well. 

I don't like BearMan's claim for multiple reasons

  • missed counterclaim
  • claims watched Croc DP2 and saw Supa visit before Croc's NK- which seems to be a ploy to throw sus at Supa.  If Supa is scum RB, not likely also NK.
  • claims X2 when nobody else has limited powers.  Why a X2 Watcher but not an X2 Tracker? 
    • this follows RM's X2 claim and seems to be a ploy to increase cred ("see, there was an X2!")
  • Watcher and Tracker and COP seems like too many  info roles
  • claims only one watch out of 3 opportunities- seems too conservative
None of that is a slam dunk but I like BearMan's claims the least

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@warren42
Your crumb is pretty complicated and I doubt anyone would've ever gotten it but whatever.

they are supposed to be too complicated to figure out but Ive gotten several complaints that I make them too easy and risk giving away PRs
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@oromagi
Reason you didn't add, BearMan claimed 2x Watcher. That itself gives more proud that RM is tailor, but what are the chances that he actually claims 2x Watcher JUST like Bear? The fact that they both said 2x sounds planned to me

Also, I'm Clay Jensen, my justification is that "I visit a lot of places," not very good
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Miller could still be a fake claim as far as I'm concerned

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1. Speedrace (copped innocent)
2. PressF4Respect (miller)
3. SupaDudz (copped innocent)
4. Oromagi (cop)
5. BearMan
6. Warren
7. LittleCookie

Which means that if we assume press is innocent, this game is solved. We lynch within the last 3 on the list (who have not been cleared). Supa blocks one of the living two. Any luck and Supa blocks the NK and Oro cops one of us to completely lock the game.
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From my POV cookie looks a little bit bad because everyone else has a role of sorts and he's claimed vanilla.
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@Speedrace
who have you VISITORed?
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@Speedrace
why wait so long to character claim when no scum was likely to claim the main character of the show?
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@oromagi
Visited press, then Ratman, then press, didn't think about people not claiming the main character
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Let's consider theme:

If RM is really Jessica Davis than scum with Justin Foley makes some sense since they were a couple.

But if Justin is scum, Clay makes a pretty solid scum partner too- they're practically brothers.

VISITOR is not a bad claim for a GODFATHER and we should expect that scum are just as high powered as town.

Does anybody have any theme/split theories?

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@warren42
I say Bear, no way RatMan fake claims 2x watcher and there's a literal 2x watcher, and then Bear watches the same person Rat fake watched
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@oromagi
I dunno, I'd think godfather might claim vanilla not a role where they have to move each night and could be caught not doing that, yknow?

As far as theme I don't have any ideas
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Actually here's the thing. We lynch me today.

It will prevent all lethal actions tonight. I'm in the pool of non-town folks. Though I think me dying isn't good since I'm town, I think it's probably the optimal play from an outside POV.
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@warren42
I’ve thought about it but if our reads are wrong it’s deadly.  What does town think?
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@Vader
Supa-

Still waiting for your NP2 claim
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@oromagi
Bare minimum I should be the last person you check and we lynch me if it's not LYLO
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@oromagi
He already made the NP2 claim last DP because RM claimed to watch Croc
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@Speedrace
post #?
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@oromagi

Doubly suspicious that bear watched the same person as RM

VTL Bear
ILikePie5
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Vote Count:

BearMan (1/4) - Speed

Vader
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@oromagi
Yes I did. I claimed this in DP2
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I said I visited Croc in NP2.

NP1- RM
NP2- Croc
NP3- Oromagi
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@Speedrace
I watched Croc because I was suspicious. In DP 2 I voted to lynch RM first, and successfully got people to lynch in DP 3. I didn't need to reveal my power role in order to lynch. 
oromagi
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I'd like to hear others talk about theme but I'm about 85% sold on Bearman

VTL BearMan