MCU Villains Mafia - DP2

Author: Speedrace

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#91
oromagi
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@ILikePie5
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Who do you want to lynch today.
We have more data from the lynch quartet than the non-lynch data.    I generally believe all the claims we've seen, in fact I'm sort of predicating our current gameplan on Press's SENSOR data so if we see any indication of falsehood there we need to start from scratch.

Bearman's roleblocker claim seems credible enough and I also generally believe CROC's claim.  Thanos is the big baddie and likely in our game but nobody has CC'd.  JOAT gives no hint of alignment but THANOS as JOAT makes sense.  Perhaps Croc is holding back a VIG option or something else but I guy Thanos & JOAT and I agree with you that he is probably of opposite alignment to the current WATCHER and RB claims. 

Worse for Croc he hammered RM, claimed TRACKER before coming clean as JOAT, tracked Warren which is as likely scum as town, and hesitated on character claim.

If Croc flips scum, I will be very interested in WP, Cookie, and Intel.  If Croc flips town, I will increase sus on Warren and on you.

So Croc is at top of list although most of my remaining uncertainty about Croc's lynch is because I have no data on you.
PressF4Respect          SENSOR                           Corvus Glaive
Bearman                        ROLEBLOCKER              Ebony Maw

Crocodile                      JOAT 1Xw, 1XRB,0XT     Thanos     
ILikePie5
#92
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Wow, I totally feel marginalised. 
#93
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@oromagi
Why would you be interested in me if Croc flips scum? By the way, I'm Killmonger.
#94
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@BearMan
Are you one-time? If you are, what made you feel so sure I was scum that you rb'd me?
#95
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@WaterPhoenix
Why would you be interested in me if Croc flips scum? By the way, I'm Killmonger.
Look at the list.  If we buy PressF's claim then there's one scum in the VTL on RM which mean there's probably one scum off that list.

If croc is guilty- then I'm going to accept Press, Pie, and Bear as very likely town as well as Warren because Croc came right at him at the top of DP2.

That leaves the last scum very likely the group of cookie, Intel, and WP.  Cookie's WATCHER claim seems reasonable and not CC'd which puts him a step above Intel and WP.  If croc flips scum, I expect one of these two to be his partner,

oromagi
X.RationalMadman     BULLETPROOF             Ultron
TOWN
(1of)
PressF4Respect          SENSOR                           Corvus Glaive
Bearman                        ROLEBLOCKER              Ebony Maw
ILikePie5
Crocodile                      JOAT 1Xw, 1XRB,0XT     Thanos     
(1of)
LittleCookie08               WATCHER                         Ego
Intelligence_06
WaterPhoenix
warren42                       SERAPH KNIGHT            Winter Soldier (Bucky Barnes)
SCUM
X:SupaDudz                  SURVIVOR                          Loki

UVC

Warren (2/5)- croc, Pie

#96
warren42
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@oromagi
If we find one scum on either list, the rest of the list still living is confirmed town.
Assuming you buy Press' claim.

Let's assume for a second he's lying about his role. He's mafia. Do you think he's honest about how many were on each side of the lynch? Since Supa flipped before he claimed, he knew Supa was mafia, so that accounts for one of the two non-town on the lynch, which means one mafia is on-lynch and one is off. (Before anyone comes at me with "Oh how do you know how many mafia there are? Ooooh caught him!" It's obvious there are two. Two made the most sense to begin with, and with Supa as 3P, if it was 3v7v1 town is at a huge disadvantage.)

Anyway. If he's mafia, saying you essentially have to comb through two nearly half and half piles to find scum sounds mighty convenient. If he said that and we lynch someone who was off the RM lynch, for example, and they turn out to be mafia, then we probably go through the entire other stack and win mafia the game.

Then again, he could have easily lied and said both or neither, which would result in some quick and easy mislynches but put him in a bad spot once we went through enough of that group to realize he's lying.

TLDR: Assume Press is scum. Would he be telling the truth about the number of scum on/off the lynch? That has benefits, but so does telling the truth. I kinda think he's telling the truth even if his claim is fake.

I hope that made sense, I went back and tried to reword things like six times cause I feel like I'm confusing myself so I'm probably confusing y'all even more.
#97
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oromagi
X.RationalMadman     BULLETPROOF             Ultron
TOWN
(1of)
PressF4Respect          SENSOR                           Corvus Glaive
Bearman                        ROLEBLOCKER              Ebony Maw
ILikePie5
Crocodile                      JOAT 1Xw, 1XRB,0XT     Thanos     
(1of)
LittleCookie08               WATCHER                         Ego
Intelligence_06
WaterPhoenix                                                             Erik Killmonger
warren42                       SERAPH KNIGHT            Winter Soldier (Bucky Barnes)
SCUM
X:SupaDudz                  SURVIVOR                          Loki

UVC

Warren (2/5)- croc, Pie


#98
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@skittlez09
Yeah I'd also like a justification, Ego as watcher doesn't make a ton of sense to me off the top of my head. Maybe since he has so many children on so many worlds? Seems kinda like a stretch but I guess it could work...
#99
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@Crocodile
I only tracked warren, because i was suspicious of him. I didn't' roleblock because I wanted to take some precautions first.
Are you saying you can do multiple actions on the same night?
#100
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Ebony Maw as roleblocker makes sense. I buy that Bearman is telling the truth about both of those.

Only problem is that roleblocker is more often scum aligned. In this game I feel like there's a decent chance of it being a town role though, since it usually has negative utility, would probably nerf the town a bit most nights.
#101
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Wait no I was thinking of Cull Obsidian. That's who the big brute is. Let me check Ebony Maw's powers.
#102
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Meh, Ebony Maw has telekinesis and magic. Probably makes sense but not quite as confident as I was a second ago. Plus I guess blatantly claiming roleblocker is probably not something you'd do if mafia? I don' t know. Bearman is still probably town.
#103
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@warren42
ego operates and controls his own planet able to feel every living organism on it 
 
it makes sense

#104
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@warren42
If Croc is town then Cookie and Bear are scum and if Cookie and Bear are town then Croc is scum. There’s no way Speed puts two characters as town affiliated with watcher and roleblocking powers
#105
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@warren42
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If we find one scum on either list, the rest of the list still living is confirmed town.
Assuming you buy Press' claim.

Let's assume for a second he's lying about his role. He's mafia. Do you think he's honest about how many were on each side of the lynch? Since Supa flipped before he claimed, he knew Supa was mafia, so that accounts for one of the two non-town on the lynch, which means one mafia is on-lynch and one is off. (Before anyone comes at me with "Oh how do you know how many mafia there are? Ooooh caught him!" It's obvious there are two. Two made the most sense to begin with, and with Supa as 3P, if it was 3v7v1 town is at a huge disadvantage.)

Anyway. If he's mafia, saying you essentially have to comb through two nearly half and half piles to find scum sounds mighty convenient. If he said that and we lynch someone who was off the RM lynch, for example, and they turn out to be mafia, then we probably go through the entire other stack and win mafia the game.

Then again, he could have easily lied and said both or neither, which would result in some quick and easy mislynches but put him in a bad spot once we went through enough of that group to realize he's lying.

TLDR: Assume Press is scum. Would he be telling the truth about the number of scum on/off the lynch? That has benefits, but so does telling the truth. I kinda think he's telling the truth even if his claim is fake.

I hope that made sense, I went back and tried to reword things like six times cause I feel like I'm confusing myself so I'm probably confusing y'all even more.
You make sense and I have no hard evidence that makes Press's claim plausible but

  • the claim was volunteered
  • a false claim of censor would be sorely tempted to claim no scum in the lynch and watch town vtl non-voters for a DP or tow.  Claiming one on/ one off is more credible because its not really exculpating anybody (which would seem the primary reason to false claim)
  • If PRESS is scum, he's CC'd himself from making any moves or NK in an investigator rich environment.  It's a very bold move as scum with  many potential pitfalls.
Your claim feels a bit convenient- having been caught standing over the NK, you've offered a role at least as rare as Press's, a role which is conveniently always town, and conveniently your role has just been wasted and so is not testable.  If Croc is town and tracked you to Supa on the NK, that's sufficient probable cause to lynch you.

In other words, I have to believe someone and You and Croc are already less credible than Press so I'm proceeding as if Press is for real.

#106
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Ok so Croc is CCing both Cookie and BearMan with his JOAT claim (RB, Watcher, Tracker). So either Croc is town and Cookie + BearMan are scum or they both are town and Croc is scum. (Or Speed is a bastard)
I agree that I don't think it's common for a JOAT to have the same powers as roles in the game, but it's not necessarily impossible. Croc having accurate results on who I visited last night makes me want to townread him even if he could be scum I guess, and I townread Bearman, so I don't know. I'm leery but not willing to lynch just off that.

If there's a watcher you should out yourself even if you don't have results because then we would have a JOAT that has the powers of three other roles in the game. AT LEAST one of those three would have to be town since we only have two mafia, so we can conclude that the other ones wouldn't inherently be mafia because of their roles seeming to conflict with the JOAT.

There is also the case against Croc. Hammering RM. Not posting justification until asked. Weak role justification 

Is it just because he hammered RM? Why is hammering him scummy when you advocated for his lynch the entire day then said "he deserved it" even after the lynch? You're scumreading croc for doing what you wanted other players to do?
#107
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Wow, I totally feel marginalised. 
I'd advise helping us try to solve the game and interacting with other players. You said "hey guys I'm town" and we all proceeded with our play of the game because of course everyone is going to claim to be town that's how the game works. Especially on the second day, that post might as well have not happened.

Do you have any results that point to anyone being mafia? For example, if you're a cop, do you have a guilty? If you are an oracle, did you ask the moderator a question that's worth sharing the answer to?

If you don't have results that are incriminating someone don't share them, but if you think it's helpful, go ahead.

Otherwise, do you have questions for anyone? Who do you think is most suspicious? Who do you believe is town?
#108
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@skittlez09
Ok yeah that makes sense
#109
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@ILikePie5
I agree that this is probably the case but I don't think we should rule out the world they're all town or that croc and one of the others are town.

Ask yourself this. Croc claimed between the two of them, right? That means if we assume either croc is scum or the other two are scum together, SOMEBODY knowingly quasi-counterclaimed town as scum. That seems pretty bold to me.
#110
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@oromagi
I'll address the part about me being tracked to the death after I make sure of your thoughts on this but you're saying you think that (assuming Press is mafia) he's telling the truth about how many were on each side of the lynch?
#111
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@warren42
f there's a watcher you should out yourself even if you don't have results because then we would have a JOAT that has the powers of three other roles in the game. AT LEAST one of those three would have to be town since we only have two mafia, so we can conclude that the other ones wouldn't inherently be mafia because of their roles seeming to conflict with the JOAT.
cookie has already claimed WATCHER.  You were just talking to him about it.
#112
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@warren42
Ask yourself this. Croc claimed between the two of them, right? That means if we assume either croc is scum or the other two are scum together, SOMEBODY knowingly quasi-counterclaimed town as scum. That seems pretty bold to me.
Right now from my POV the lynch is between you and Croc. Croc’s death has the ability to clear both Cookie and BearMan or implicate them. If BM and Cookie are both scum then noobiness Can explain the boldness.

Right now assuming there are 2 mafia and no more TPs, it’s 7-2. We can mislynch two more times if we have to. If however there are 3 scum then tomorrow it’s LYLO if we mislynch here
#113
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@oromagi
Shit I meant tracker.
#114
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@ILikePie5
No way we have 3 scum
#115
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@warren42
you're saying you think that (assuming Press is mafia) he's telling the truth about how many were on each side of the lynch?
If we stipulate that Press is mafia then speculating over whether or not he's telling the truth about SENSOR is a waste of time.  Mafia always know how many mafia are in the lynch pile.  But if scum is going to boldly claim SENSOR why fake results that essentially keep everybody on the table (you and your scum partner included)? Better to fake a claim that doesn't include any scum.  As a scum move its not impossible but highly improbable and we're looking for probable scenarios here.
#116
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*left, I should say, we technically have three with Supa
#117
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@oromagi
Ok

As far as my claim, yes, it's convenient if I'm scum. But here's the thing.
  • I'm not a ninja, as I was tracked N1
  • My claim means that if it's true, I won't be "moving" for the rest of the game
  • Therefore what you said about Press (below) is also true about me moving forward.
      If PRESS is scum, he's CC'd himself from making any moves or NK in an investigator rich environment.  It's a very bold move as scum with  many potential pitfalls.
  • If you believe I'm scum then croc is town and vice versa. You can scumread us independently of one another, but should not think we're scum together. In what world do I allow my less experienced scum mate to claim a pseudo-guilty on me in the first night without a VERY clear and VERY high payoff. Like the only way that makes any sense is if it literally is game over in the world where I'm lynched. Doesn't make sense.

#118
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It is also possible that croc and I are both town, but you don't seem like you'd even entertain that world
#119
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@warren42
  • If you believe I'm scum then croc is town and vice versa. You can scumread us independently of one another, but should not think we're scum together. In what world do I allow my less experienced scum mate to claim a pseudo-guilty on me in the first night without a VERY clear and VERY high payoff. Like the only way that makes any sense is if it literally is game over in the world where I'm lynched. Doesn't make sense.

    • I can see why you'd want to project this equation but I don't think there's much value to eliminating possibilities based on a presumed base competence in either scum or town.  If croc is scum I think it improves your cred but does not exculpate.  I do consider it possible that you are both town but improbable.
    #120
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    @oromagi
    Alright well maybe you'll believe me in Endgame (I capitalized cause of Avengers, get it? Wait, why are you all booing me? That was funny!) but I would never let that happen if we were scum together.