I've never been fully convinced of nukes 'reliability as deterrents.
I'm not convinced that we understand how to fight a war between world powers.
I fear results 'worse than WW1, in which technology outstripped our understanding in how to fight wars.
WW1 General Parody of Zapp Brannigan
"You see, machine guns have a preset number of bullets. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they reached their limit and ran out of ammo. Lieutenant, show them the medal I won."
Nor is it certain that nukes shall 'remain the ultimate deterrent, See
Strategic Defense Initiative
Star Wars Program.
Perhaps I have not enough faith in humans,
But I've read enough history, of other countries and my own, to know that people grow hungry, ambitious that it.
Perhaps as Hitler once spoke of Germany as needing to conquer Russia for "Living Space", So now Russia and China 'both, look West for "Living Space"
The Falklands were a matter of national pride enough for Argentina to risk war with Britain, perhaps Taiwan is a matter of national pride enough for China to risk war.
Russia and China both yet hold heritage in Communism, which once boasted a dream, of The Communist International.
America's entitlement was reason enough to march East to West across America, in name of Manifest destiny.
Throughout 'history have countries expanded and desired more, colonizing other nations weaker than themselves.
Or contending with equals such as between Rome and Carthage, until Carthage was destroyed, burned and salted.
WW1 was started in no small part by treaties, nationalism, and pride.
WW2 allowed to 'be by pacifists shaken by the last war, as they spoke of peace, love, and understanding.
But it's truth I'll say, that I have little to none understanding of military matters, or other countries aspirations, of diplomacy.
Still. . .
I do not share your optimism.
Also the third world's 'potential power concerns me.