why aren't non-gun murders wildly out of control in the usa?

Author: n8nrgmi

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Greyparrot
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@dustryder
Dystopian Democrat cities are the undisputed concentrated outliers. Crime is courted on a local level with fucked up liberal policies with no care for consequences, and certainly not on the State wide level. 

Do you live in a dystopian city run by Marxist policies? What's the climate like? I bet you are told it is just fine.

Most likely though like many fucked up social justice leftards, most likely live in a gated community ignorant of everything happening nearby.
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@dustryder
Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, and Wyoming have some of the lowest murder rates on the list and also some of the highest gun ownership rates

Delaware has the lowest gun ownership and 13th highest rate
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@Greyparrot
I was always under the impression that gun violence was more common in areas where people are more concentrated rather than where there are more Democrats. 
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@Greyparrot
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Oddly enough places with more concentrations of people also tend to be more liberal in ideology
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@bmdrocks21
Which just means that gun violence is a complicated issue that can't simply be explained by pointing at numbers and latching on random correlations (what greyparrot has done).

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@dustryder
Oddly enough places with more concentrations of people also tend to be more liberal in ideology
Sheep do tend to clump up in nature.

 and latching on random correlations (what greyparrot has done).
It's not random. That correlation has been valid for decades. If you defund the police and reward criminals, the unintended consequence is more crime and murders, regardless of how many gun-free zones you allocate. No sane person with the means would willingly choose to live outside a gated community in a Democrat dystopian city.
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@n8nrgmi
about 132M people own at least one gun, and, in 2017, the last year of data collection by Pew, about 40,000 people in US were killed by a gun. That's 0.03%; not a big number, even though it is the leading cause of death by a weapon. Further, of those 40,000, again according to Pew, 60% of those killed [24,000] were killed by their own hand; suicides.
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@Greyparrot

It's not random. That correlation has been valid for decades. If you defund the police and reward criminals, the unintended consequence is more crime and murders, regardless of how many gun-free zones you allocate. No sane person with the means would willingly choose to live outside a gated community in a Democrat dystopian city.
Oh well in that case my correlation is quite valid as well. Clearly, if you let uneducated hillbillies play with guns, the consequences are higher rates of gun violence. And before you say but local vs state..., I should remind you that local ordinances do not supersede state-level laws and most significantly, conservative policy.
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@dustryder
 I should remind you that local ordinances do not supersede state-level laws.
Neither do most state laws restrict what local cities can do to their people. Take Chaz/Chop or Floyd Square for examples on how locals can fuck it all up.

Most state laws can't stop Marxist meglomaniacs from driving a city into the gorund.

A state constitution could though.

No sane person with the means would willingly choose to live outside a gated community in a Democrat dystopian city.
Glad you agree.
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@dustryder
Which just means that gun violence is a complicated issue that can't simply be explained by pointing at numbers and latching on random correlations
Absolutely. But homicide in general is a complex issue. The presence or lack of guns doesn’t have much bearing on the homicide rate.

The original poster ended by saying “Japan has few guns and little homicide” as if that was indicative of anything at all.

There are safer countries (not necessarily just homicide-related) with more guns than them, such as Switzerland
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School shootings are one of the ugliest global occurrences. That's my two cents. I imagine you've all had this argument a thousand times and not moved an inch. 
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@bmdrocks21

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why aren't non-gun murders wildly out of control in the usa?

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also, whatever your argument is.... do you agree that non-gun murders *should* be wildly out of control if this is just a bad person problem, and not a gun problem too? 
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@n8nrgmi
do you agree that non-gun murders *should* be wildly out of control if this is just a bad person problem, and not a gun problem too? 
The Democrats don't even know what a bad person really is. They think a cosplay shaman is the worst bad guy ever since Hitler and MS-13 are basically misunderstood oppressed brown people that deserve charity instead of racial slurs like "animals"
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@bmdrocks21
also, switzerland has more gun control than we do. and, even if it didn't, it's still the exception to the rule. you can find an example or exception to fit any argument... but i cited a harvard literature review, that says the prescence of gun correlates to murder. that means that's the general rule. 
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You can tell this is a gun problem, not just a bad person problem as the gun lobby says

It's both, right? Badger actually has the right idea on it, its like a prisoners dilemma. Would there be less murders if there were zero guns, of course, without a doubt. But since they are here why would I unilaterally disarm?

Although I have looked into it though, and gun policy is surprisingly uncorrelated with homicide rates, both between states and between countries. I wouldn't go so far as to say that guns don't make it easier to kill someone but the idea that it's a "people problem" definitely has a lot of truth to it. Homicides went up 26% in 2020 and it wasnt because gun policy got looser. 
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@n8nrgmi
also, whatever your argument is.... do you agree that non-gun murders *should* be wildly out of control if this is just a bad person problem, and not a gun problem too? 

Not necessarily. Saying that bad people are the problem doesn't mean that they don't have choices in tools they use to commit crimes. Bad people are choosing to use guns to do bad things.

Now does that mean you should take away guns from good people (aka the overwhelming majority of legal gun owners)? Absolutely not. It means that you need to crack down on the illegal gun trade, not punish people who purchase guns legally.

According to the BJS, most guns used in crimes are obtained illegally:

An estimated 287,400 prisoners had possessed afirearm during their offense. Among these, more thanhalf (56%) had either stolen it (6%), found it at thescene of the crime (7%), or obtained it off the streetor from the underground market (43%). Most ofthe remainder (25%) had obtained it from a familymember or friend, or as a gift. Seven percent hadpurchased it under their own name from a licensedfirearm dealer.
Over half are known to have illegally obtained the gun.

7% legally purchased it from gun shops. .8% had obtained them from gun shows. And if you want to crack down on the 25% that are gifts from family, while that is a much smaller issue, that wouldn't be a big deal. 


So, why does it make sense to disarm people that want to defend themselves? You could even crackdown on gifting if you wanted, but the evidence points to the fact that people who obtain guns legally (especially those who buy for themselves) are not the people to be worried about.

also, switzerland has more gun control than we do. and, even if it didn't, it's still the exception to the rule. you can find an example or exception to fit any argument... but i cited a harvard literature review, that says the prescence of gun correlates to murder. that means that's the general rule. 

Well there are plenty of high-gun places that are among the safest in the world: Canada, the Falkland Islands, Denmark, and Switzerland. This isn't just a one-off fluke. Find out what makes them exceptional and recreate that environment here. Learn from their policies.

And your Harvard source states that the only variable that was included was gun ownership rates. So, they don't even know if x causes y or y causes x. In simple terms, countries with more crime might increase gun ownership for self-defense purposes. They said that the only factor  for controlling other variables was that all of the countries were developed.... That was it.

It was also a 21 year old study, but I'll give you some slack. In my experience gun studies haven't been big since the mid-2000s.

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@n8nrgmi
And if we break things down by ethnicity, according to Statista, Whites are the largest gun-owning group by far. https://www.statista.com/statistics/623356/gun-ownership-in-the-us-by-ethnicity/

51% live in a household with a gun and 38% personally own a gun, compared with 28% and 18% for non-Whites, respectively. So, you would expect the murder rate in White communities to be much higher, wouldn't you? 

Well, according to the FBI, 3,650 arrests were made against White people for murder in 2019. Considering that their population is 234,370,202 that means that the White murder rate is 1.557 per 100,000. So, the White murder rate is just below Belgium's and a little above France's and Romania's.

97,079,079 would then be the non-White population.  They committed 4,314 murders. That is a 4.44 murder rate per 100,000. 

Since the group with more guns commits less murder (both gross and per capita), isn't it quite clear that we should not be focusing on the tools used? Obviously other, much more important factors are at play causing this high murder rate, not guns. Whatever those are (cultural, economic, etc.) are what should be at the forefront of whatever discussion there is on gun crime.
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Just add me to the list of gun murders if your intent is to take my gun. Simple as that. No debate required. I will defend my firearms to the death.

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@sadolite
The police will just murder you as you sleep like Duncan Lemp
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@bmdrocks21
For their cowardly sake lets hope so.

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@badger
School shootings are one of the ugliest global occurrences. That's my two cents. I imagine you've all had this argument a thousand times and not moved an inch. 
Correct but no amount of gun laws can prevent them. I person who inherently is mentally unstable will do anything to cause the same harm he’s facing to others
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@sadolite
Just add me to the list of gun murders if your intent is to take my gun. Simple as that. No debate required. I will defend my firearms to the death.
We have a saying here in Texas: Come And Take It. The Mexicans failed miserably
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@ILikePie5
So did the FBI at Waco.

7 days later

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@bmdrocks21
Not necessarily. Saying that bad people are the problem doesn't mean that they don't have choices in tools they use to commit crimes. Bad people are choosing to use guns to do bad things.


incorrect. if this is a bad person problem and guns dont make the situation worse, there should be wildly out of control non-gun murder rates too. you are correct, that it's technically possible that people are just choosing to use guns, and by some coincidence, non-gun murders are normal here... but that's counterintuitive and would be a fluke of science. 

think of it with common sense. think of a buffon who is culturally trained to carry around a gun. if he gets into a fight or argument, it's obvious by common sense alone that someone is more likely to die than if he doesn't have a gun. 

And your Harvard source states that the only variable that was included was gun ownership rates. So, they don't even know if x causes y or y causes x. In simple terms, countries with more crime might increase gun ownership for self-defense purposes. They said that the only factor  for controlling other variables was that all of the countries were developed.... That was it. 

princplles of science dont just change, unless there's a reason for it. if more guns means more murder fifteen years ago, we have no reason to assume things are different. it's not just this study either, look at the opening post... police are more likely to die with gun around as are women, and so many other metrics. you and your loved ones are more likley do die if you have a gun, that sorta stuff. if there was just one study we might consider it could be flawed, the implications. but look at the totality of the science out there. 

what i have on my side of the argument is the totality of the sicnece. i also have common sense. i defy you to argue from common sense that everyone carrying around guns wouldn't cause the murder rate to sky rocket. 


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@n8nrgmi
We need another Timothy McVeigh to take the pressure off gun owners.
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@FLRW
You have a great sense of humour tbh. 
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@n8nrgmi
incorrect. if this is a bad person problem and guns dont make the situation worse, there should be wildly out of control non-gun murder rates too. you are correct, that it's technically possible that people are just choosing to use guns, and by some coincidence, non-gun murders are normal here... but that's counterintuitive and would be a fluke of science. 
I'm not saying that it is a good thing that bad people have guns. If bad people didn't have guns, that would be optimal. But that doesn't mean that taking away guns from responsible, good people is optimal. Clearly, the best option is to give good people a means to defend themselves (especially smaller and weaker people who otherwise couldn't. Hence the name of an old Wild West revolver being the "great equalizer".)

princplles of science dont just change, unless there's a reason for it. if more guns means more murder fifteen years ago, we have no reason to assume things are different. it's not just this study either, look at the opening post... police are more likely to die with gun around as are women, and so many other metrics. you and your loved ones are more likley do die if you have a gun, that sorta stuff. if there was just one study we might consider it could be flawed, the implications. but look at the totality of the science out there. 

what i have on my side of the argument is the totality of the sicnece. i also have common sense. i defy you to argue from common sense that everyone carrying around guns wouldn't cause the murder rate to sky rocket. 

It is not very scientific though. " Blumstein & Wallman (2006) conclude that a complex interaction between "prisons, drugs, guns, policing, economics," and "demography, including abortion" is the best explanation for the crime drop in the United States". From the 1960s to the 1990s, just about all Wealthy Western nations experienced a rise in crime and then a decrease and nobody knows why the heck that even happened. So, to just pretend that prevalence of guns is the only thing, or even the main thing, driving homicides is naive at best.

That study points to half a dozen different factors impacting crime rates. Are guns to some degree related? Perhaps, as they theorize. But do police prevalence, demographics, poverty, and plenty of other things? Yes, to a much larger degree.

I pointed out that the largest gun-owning group, Whites, have a tiny homicide rate, less than many wealthy European countries. So, I don't understand why you are so dead set on blaming guns when clearly other factors are much more important to address. Our homicide rate is incredibly skewed by other demographics that own less guns and it would be disingenuous for you to ignore that. If poverty is causing that disparity, do what you can to alleviate poverty. If culture is the cause, do what you can about that. But don't pretend that a tool is the cause of our problems.

And if you want a "common sense argument", how about this: if you know that there is a high likelihood that someone is armed and could kill you, are you more likely or less likely to pick a fight with them or try to mug them? Probably lower because you don't want to die. But if they are very likely unarmed because of a gun ban, you would feel less apprehension about insulting, robbing, or punching them?
Therefore, the common sense is: "an armed society is a polite society". By "common sense" (aka a quite worthless waste of time based on reasoning that likely doesn't apply to the real world), other types of crimes would be lower because of the prevalence of guns among regular citizens.

(Just like how other countries having nukes decreases the likelihood of you using a nuke.)
n8nrgmi
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The belief that more guns lead to fewer crimes is founded on the idea that guns are dangerous when bad guys have them, so we should get more guns into the hands of good guys. Yet Cook, the Duke economist, says this good guy/bad guy dichotomy is a false and dangerous one. Even upstanding American citizens are only human—they can “lose their temper, or exercise poor judgment, or misinterpret a situation, or have a few drinks,” he explains, and if they're carrying guns when they do, bad things can ensue. In 2013 in Ionia, Mich., a road rage incident led two drivers—both concealed carry permit holders—to get out of their cars, take out their guns and kill each other.

As I drove from Scottsboro to Atlanta to catch my flight home, I kept turning over what I had seen and learned. Although we do not yet know exactly how guns affect us, the notion that more guns lead to less crime is almost certainly incorrect. The research on guns is not uniform, and we could certainly use more of it. But when all but a few studies point in the same direction, we can feel confident that the arrow is aiming at the truth—which is, in this case, that guns do not inhibit crime and violence but instead make it worse.

The popular gun-advocacy bumper sticker says that “guns don't kill people, people kill people”—and it is, in fact, true. People, all of us, lead complicated lives, misinterpret situations, get angry, make mistakes. And when a mistake involves pulling a trigger, the damage can't be undone. Unlike my Glock-aided attack on the zombie at the gun range, life is not target practice.

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@bmdrocks21
More Blacks died from "mass" school shootings than whites, but the media won't teach that to the "highly -educated" Democrats.
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@Greyparrot
More Blacks died from "mass" school shootings than whites
SAY HIS NAME....

George Kirby