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@Lunatic
@Wylted
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
See above and give thoughts
Fullmetal Alchemist Brotherhood DP1
Posts
Total:
83
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@Earth
@badger
@Polyglot
See above and give thoughts
I'd say #6 will probably be a protective role... Doctor, someone with a Vest, Jailkeep...
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@MisterChris
I agree with you on the fact there’s an investigative role out there based on my claim, unless Supa decided to be bastard. With that being said I’d suspect scum to have either a Godfather or a Lawyer on their side.
Don’t know anything about the theme so if Whiteflame or someone else with the knowledge can second it, I’d be fine with it.
At this point I still want to here from Badger and what advantage it would give us by no lynching today.
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@ILikePie5
It's just simple math.
Lynching today and getting it wrong still lands us in a MYLO next DP. That would be lynching in 8 and then 6 after we've killed one and mafia have killed one. Lose chance is 50%.
NL'ing today, lynching tomorrow is lynching in 7, then 5, the 5 is a MYLO just the same as the 6, except town's chances are better. Lose chance 42%. That is, chances we hammer wrong both days.
Taking into account also 1 in 4's versus 1 in 3's should we lynch right in the MYLO, or the same for lynching right on first lynch, I'm not doing the math now I have a headache tbh, but I think it makes even stronger mathematical argument for NL'ing today.
Roles obviously have impact, but I still think NL'ing today is preferable.
That said, again, I'm fine with not NL'ing haha. But my head hurts tonight.
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@MisterChris
Unvote
I'll keep my focus on the characters.
Though it's a bit of a spoiler, I think it's unlikely that both Ling and Greed are in this game as separate characters. There was another Greed, but if Ling is here, he's not. Edward, Alphonse, Winry, Mustang, and Scar are all about as obvious choices as it gets since they are all major characters in the series. Apart from them, I can see all of these as options, though I'd also include Alex Louis Armstrong (pretty likely), Olivier Mira Armstrong (less likely), Izumi Curtis (pretty likely), Riza Hawkeye (pretty likely), Tim Marcoh (less likely), Shou Tucker (hard to say how likely), and Solf J. Kimblee (less likely). This will add a lot to our complications.
As for eliminating some of the outliers from the list, I think it's worth recognizing that, with 8 players, not every one of the seven deadly sins will be present. I've basically eliminated Greed based on the overlap with Ling. Pride, Lust, Gluttony, and Sloth all play comparatively minor roles, so their likelihood of being here seems pretty small to me. Barry the Chopper seems pretty unlikely as well (though I think he has better odds than these sins), as does Maria Ross (hence my uncertainty regarding Pie's claim).
So if we're just focused on the likelier ones, we still have well over 8. I don't have any thoughts yet on the theme based solely on my own role and Pie's, though I think it may become more obvious as we get more claims.
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@MisterChris
some one with a vest? You mean bulletproof?
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@badger
If we were going to lynch blind that would be true. But we’re not going to do that. Process of Elimination is our best friend
Vote Count
none
Note, probably won't be active much today
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@ILikePie5
With that being said I’d suspect scum to have either a Godfather or a Lawyer on their side.
How come?
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@whiteflame
I think it's unlikely that both Ling and Greed are in this game as separate characters. There was another Greed, but if Ling is here, he's not.
Maybe if this were a larger game I could see Ling and Greed being separate and somehow interconnected role-wise but I have to agree with you in this case.
Pride, Lust, Gluttony, and Sloth all play comparatively minor roles, so their likelihood of being here seems pretty small to me.
True, Wrath/King Brad seems to be the big gun.
So if we're just focused on the likelier ones, we still have well over 8.
Yup, and honestly this still isn't the best method of narrowing it down. When creating a mafia game you pair what characters you know of with what mafia roles you know of and try to balance it all. It isn't easy and sometimes you choose weird characters to make it work. That's why I'm not terribly keen on jumping on Pie over his claim as of yet.
I think we need to create a list of PROBABLE and PLAUSIBLE candidates to be more clear.
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@whiteflame
I'm freaking tired so I'll do that tmrw
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@MisterChris
How come?
Thinking it balance wise. If Miller were to claim like me then investigative role knows his investigations will always be accurate. Plus idt I’ve ever seen a game where it was just a Miller
I haven't played in years but so far everyone is town except whiteflame who's blatant mafia.
Not sure about earth or TUF either, but I townread the rest.
Do you guys think Wylted got eaten by a crocodile or something?
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@MisterChris
I think we need to create a list of PROBABLE and PLAUSIBLE candidates to be more clear.
Trouble is that we could spin this out a lot wider if we do that. Assuming that Maria Ross is a character in this game, we could basically include any character who played a substantial role in any individual arc, which is a lot of characters for this series. I have some trouble believing that listing them all would be helpful.
Yup, and honestly this still isn't the best method of narrowing it down. When creating a mafia game you pair what characters you know of with what mafia roles you know of and try to balance it all. It isn't easy and sometimes you choose weird characters to make it work. That's why I'm not terribly keen on jumping on Pie over his claim as of yet.
I'm not keen on it, either. The character is minor, but the role and its justification make a great deal of sense. I have trouble believing that Pie would have stumbled across this as a fake claim, though if we assume that he is scum, I would be more inclined to believe that either his partner knows FMA very well or that scum was given fake claims. That being said, I think this fits so neatly that it is likely devised by Supa, and I'm more inclined at the moment to believe that he's town.
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@Wylted
VTL Wylted for activity
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@ILikePie5
Thinking it balance wise. If Miller were to claim like me then investigative role knows his investigations will always be accurate. Plus idt I’ve ever seen a game where it was just a Miller
Maybe. the investigative role could be nerfed as well.
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@badger
I haven't played in years but so far everyone is town except whiteflame who's blatant mafia.
can you elaborate on this??
VTL Wylted.
#2 most active forum member... hasn't even posted here.
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@MisterChris
I haven't played in years but so far everyone is town except whiteflame who's blatant mafia.can you elaborate on this??
Honestly just assumed this was a sarcastic statement, given that he didn't VTL me.
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@MisterChris
He just reads funny tbh. I take funny sort of reads usually, I'm more used to playing without themes. A good read is always the first posts of a person, I find. I think mafia feel a pressure there, actually I'd bet most first posts that are all caps are actually made by mafia, as if bursting up through that pressure. It's those sort of artistic renderings I go in for, ya know, haha. That's a lot of the fun of it for me. But he does read funny. And then a first post about feeling the heat, and a Freudian slip in it maybe, "head," lol. I mean...
I'm not sure honestly, but he reads funny. There's too much in every post, too much for our benefit supposedly. "I'll hold off on judgement," "I'm more inclined to believe," "I have trouble believing" - all of these too, it just feels like he's playing games around actually having townie feelings, being in the dark as a townie would. It just reads funny. I don't have so much to say it besides that for now.
For a townie read, just for another idea of it, I like Polyglot's opening, that "Hello citizens of Amestris!" bit of a roleplay fun sort of thing going on there, falling right into his character and then the game, no pressure. Maybe that's a premature read too, but I like it.
I don't expect anyone to bandwagon any of that honestly, and I'm happy to read more anyway, but that's what you're getting from me lol.
That's also such a funky reaction tbh.
Vote Count
Wylted [1/5] iLikePie5
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@Vader
I'm on Wylted
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@badger
Didn't notice that slip - wrote that first post out on my phone, must've mistyped. Honestly, this isn't the first time I've been called out for behavior like this, though if you ask others who have played with me, this is pretty common practice for me, especially in games where I know a good deal about the central theme.
As for thinking that your statement was sarcastic, off-handedly mentioning that you think someone is mafia without any explanation didn't seem like a serious charge from where I was sitting. Clearly, I was incorrect in that assessment.
Vote Count
Wylted [2/5] iLikePie5, MisterChris