The Biden Border Crisis

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Double_R
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I am constantly hearing this on Fox News and other right wing outlets. To me it just looks like another example of one side pointing to anything bad that’s happening while the other side controls the White House, then pretending it is not only worse than it’s ever been, but also pretending that what’s happening is entirely a direct result of the president’s actions.

Problem is every time I hear someone talk about this all they provide are anecdotes. Can someone please explain what the claim is exactly and support it? Would really appreciate the enlightenment.
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I keep hearing about how Biden completely opened up the border - even though the border has been effectively closed to non essential travel…
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Every news station even liberal ones called it a crisis.
I don't see how it is a crisis though.
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  • My understanding is that Biden essentially maintained Trump's border policy with 2 major (and popularly supported) exceptions:
    • Ended child separation policies and worked to restore hundreds of children to their parents
    • Abruptly halted work on the unnecessary and expensive border wall
  • I think Biden expected migration to decrease once potential migrants understood that Biden would not expand asylum provisions or lessen resources at intercepting illegal crossing.
    • But demand for illegal immigration is at an all time high due to the pandemic and the record high demand for labor
  • I've said many times that I think illegal immigration could be quickly and compassionately controlled by killing demand.  Arrest a few prominent employers of illegal immigrants and employers would stop taking the risk, pronto.  We know that Trump still employs some illegal immigrants for his groundskeeping crews, according to WashPo.  Put Trump in jail for a few nights and he'd do more the end illegal immigration than all the walls ever built on the Southern border.

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Nothing is a crisis to a nimby liberal until it's in their by,
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100 million dollars worth of Wall supplies rotting under the Sun. Our taxpayer money at its finest.

I wonder why the border areas shifted heavily to Trump. Don’t you?
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100 million......Peanuts.

How much did you blow, fucking about in Places like Iraq and Afghanistan?
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100 million......Peanuts.

How much did you blow, fucking about in Places like Iraq and Afghanistan?
I didn’t support the war, but go on. Trump ended those wars but go on. At least we were using the money in Afghanistan and Iraq albeit for wrong purposes. How’s that worse than just letting money rot?
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Problem is every time I hear someone talk about this all they provide are anecdotes. Can someone please explain what the claim is exactly and support it? Would really appreciate the enlightenment.
The short answer: illegal immigration is at multi decade highs largely because economic migrants have figured out how to exploit US asylum laws. Basically you are entitled to a hearing and if someone crosses the border they are typically released into the US with a court date. Problem is, those court dates take years because the system is so backlogged, and when their claim for asylum is denied as it almost always is, there isn’t really enforcement that makes them leave. The numbers have risen so much under Biden that his administration released 50,000 people without even a court date. Hard to see a scenario where these people EVER leave the US: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios.com/migrant-release-no-court-date-ice-dhs-immigration-33d258ea-2419-418d-abe8-2a8b60e3c070.html

Trump faced a similar crisis in late 2018 and early 2019, but negotiated the Remain in Mexico policy with the Mexican government. Essentially what that meant was that asylum seekers who weren’t Mexicans pleading asylum from Mexico would remain in Mexico until it was time for their hearing. Since virtually none of these people were actual political refugees or dissidents but were instead economic migrants this totally destroyed the incentive to cross the border. You can see this reflected quite clearly in the numbers. Biden ended remain in Mexico a few weeks into office. Fortunately a court has ordered him to restart it due to the negative impact his end of the policy had on border states. 

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The numbers have risen so much under Biden that his administration released 50,000 people without even a court date. Hard to see a scenario where these people EVER leave the US:
This is the only real answer I’ve gotten so far. I’ve always thought US policy of letting migrants go in the US and expecting them to return was dumb, but it’s also always been US policy to my understanding.

So is this really it? It’s Biden created crisis for maintaining longstanding US policy?
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Trump did a lot to change what he called “Catch and Release”, and Biden rolled back these policies almost immediately upon taking office: https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/biden-admin-relaunches-catch-release-181832444.html
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So is this really it? It’s Biden created crisis for maintaining longstanding US policy?
It’s about incentives and disincentives, too. Trump executed several controversial measures which disincentivized border crossing attempts. When Biden took office, he pretty much rolled back every Trump measure along with a 100 day moratorium on deportations with some exceptions. This increased incentives. Heck, just Trump being out of office increased that. Also, Biden said on the campaign trail that he was for universal healthcare even for border crossers, and the world was listening.

Another interesting aspect:  the Supreme Court reinstated Trump’s controversial “Remain in Mexico” policy by 6-3 vote. It requires non Mexican people to remain in Mexico while awaiting their court date, I believe. Funny thing is that the Biden admin didn’t seem too terribly disappointed about that.

The Biden admin seemed to have a disconnect about immigration and refugees when it came to people coming from Cuba. It tried hard to disincentivize that origin of asylum seeking, which only served to confirm suspicions that Biden’s immigration policy is highly political.

As is usually the case, righties think Biden has done too much to open the borders, while lefties think he hasn’t done enough (yet).

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When it comes to people in the country without proper documentation, the majority of them didn't cross the Mexican border at all. Most of them came to the United States legally — but then don't leave.
About 700,000 travelers to the United States overstayed their visas in fiscal 2017, the most recent year for which the Department of Homeland Security has published figures. DHS estimated that, as of Sept. 30, 2017, the end of that fiscal year, more than 600,000 of those travelers were still in the U.S.

Also, a lot come in by visa fraud like Melania's Einstein visa.
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As a welfare nation, we will never be able to afford open borders.

If you want open borders, get rid of welfare. if you want welfare for Americans, close the borders. 

You simply cannot have both.
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Every woman can remain in America as long as they declare pregnancy. 
thett3
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I don’t have words for how much I hate birthright citizenship. Just pure stolen citizenship 
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What other sustainable nations do this?
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Uh, not to put a point on it, but wasn't it the British who claimed the sun never set on their empire? Stand down.
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When you consider the logistics of the operation, the Brit Empire whilst it lasted, was a pretty amazing achievement.

I'm not sure that you can prefix the US's endeavours in Iraq and Afghanistan with the word amazing.

And let's not even go to Vietnam or Korea.

Stand down.
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the Brit Empire whilst it lasted, was a pretty amazing achievement.
I'll acknowledge that all day long.
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As I understand, MPP started in early 2019; and while there’s no detailed data on exactly how many were - it seems sound 70,000 people were moved to Mexico out of 300,000 who applied for affirmative or defensive asylum.

CBP data indicates that in CY2019, ~790k people were apprehended crossing the border. (850 in FY2019), 

Data also indicates the average daily ice/CBP custody population was around 50k by the end of 2019 with an average stay of 34.3 days. Meaning around 600k went through detention facilities.

Ice removed 267,000 people in 2019. This includes border removals (but not title 42 removals - which only started early 2020)

So, out of 790k people crossing the border, 70k went to Mexico, 50k are held in detention centres - at most 267k of the detained were sent home (probably much less - as this number includes deportations from those already in the US) leaving around 400,000 illegal immigrants in the system not in detention. The numbers I’ve found for releases from ice detention on bond, or recognizance - rather than released across the border was around 263k. 


This is to say that suggestion that MPP or ending “catch and release” (2017/2018) had a huge impact doesn’t seem to match the data; there’s possibly some movement, but for 800k people, a few tens of thousands here and there isn’t going to make much of a dent.

A big factor in 2020 - was Trumps section 42 expulsions - where individuals can basically be driven back across the border and dropped off - and the pandemic, which dropped everything through the floor - and illegal immigration has been picking up since Augusta last year.

In 2021. There are slightly fewer families and more unaccompanied kids than in 2019; but the big difference is single adults; which are way way up. In 2019 recidivism in crossing was at around 7%, and is currently around 38% recently. While it’s unclear the previous rates for previous months; this appears a pretty significant factor in the volume current number of crossings - single adults crossing multiple times because section 42 gives no appreciable repercussions for multiple crossing attempts. With crossings beginning to rise before any policy was actually changed.


The claim that various policies is deterring people from crossing doesn’t seem to really compute. If family separation didn’t significantly reduce family crossings  - it’s hard to believe that processing a fraction of asylum claims in Mexico, or only releasing a huge fraction of asylum claims on bond instead of a slightly huger fraction would move the needle by much.

Poor conditions, violence, in various Latin American countries are producing a supply of people willing to risk the trek to the border; the risk of getting to and crossing the border with the potential of being caught is only going to deter people if the worst case result of making the trip is worse than what would happen if they stay. 

The only thing Trump has done that could have impacted this decision was family separation: and if that didn’t move the needle: I’m sure as sh*t that the possibility that they’d be deported to Mexico isn’t going to either. You may find that just being a New Democratic president who isn’t a colossal d**k hole is going to boost the numbers just by traffickers being able to claim immigrants will be welcomed in open arms.  Hell, all these news reports from right wing news and social media saying that the border is now completely open, that all these illegal immigrants are being let in unchallenged, and everyone’s being welcomed in with open arms, and will be granted welfare is probably more to blame than any individual change of policy. Hondurans watching Tucker Carlson screeds on Facebook about how nothing is being done are probably thinking that now is a pretty good time to make the crossing after all.

In terms of level of crisis; rightly or wrongly. Biden is still keeping title 42 expulsions, which means the bulk of those being picked up are being sent right back: while this doesn’t address the surge of numbers, or the fact that resources are still being stretched - it does mean that the overall impact is not as bad as 2019; as only 500k immigrants so far have made it through: which that could for sure increase; the apocalyptic hand waving is mostly overstated as a result.


The only thing that is going to help fix the southern border issues is when Latin American countries are as stable as Canada. Full stop.

Anything short of that, resources/policy allocated to other goals are largely pointless bandaids. 

$100m dollars of wall supplies whether left on the ground, or assembled into a fence is really just a waste of money either way; because it’s not dealing with the pressure that is driving people here in the first place.


Don’t get me wrong: I don’t think Biden is handling the surge of immigrants as well as he should be; there should be more resources dedicated, more negotiation with Latin American countries, etc; but I don’t think the narrative that change policy is playing a significant role in the surge doesn’t seem to match reality.



















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This is to say that suggestion that MPP or ending “catch and release” (2017/2018) had a huge impact doesn’t seem to match the data; there’s possibly some movement, but for 800k people, a few tens of thousands here and there isn’t going to make much of a dent.
You can see an incredibly clear impact of all the Trump policies that were slowly rolled out in 2019 in the numbers, as well as the massive spike that began immediately upon Biden winning. MPP was conceived in early 2019 but it was not fully implemented at that point, it was slowly rolled out to other sectors. It made a gigantic difference and pretty much ended the crisis of people hopping the border to make false asylum claims and then disappear. 
 
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There's also over 100,000 illegal aliens in Canada right now; which if Canada had the same population as US it would be equivalent to over 1 million illegals.

The idea that "fixing other countries" will stop people from 3rd world nations from taking advantage of welfare nations with open borders is pure fantasy.
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Another really weird thing about Canada is more people oppose illegal immigration than the USA when polled...

They also have a LOT stricter laws. It's not as easy to qualify for asylum and they deport around 12,000 a year.
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We need to give more money to Latin American countries. Especially El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. Only way to stop illegal immigration 

#MoreMoneyToCartels