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@thett3
I kinda covered this.
1.) MPP numbers were tiny. It only hit ~10k by June, at which point crossings were already dropping.
2.) Impacts of MPP on immigrants is still going to be better than much of Latin America living conditions: so still worth the risk and unlikely to be deterrent.
3.) Even your link shows that immigration historically peaks July or prior - then falls. Claiming the fall in June is because of policy is Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.
4.) if the 64% of crossers that came in families were not deterred by family separation, it makes no sense that they happened to be deterred by MPP.
5.) MPP Didn’t apply to unaccompanied minors - but they fell in line with other groups that were in 2019.
6.) Mexican nationals are way up too in 2021 - MPP doesn’t apply to them.
7.) October 2020 border crossings were 72k. That’s the highest October numbers since at least 2013: higher than 2019. It was already showing that immigration was picking up from august 2020, even with Trump and these policies all in place.
8.) Catch and release was “shut down” in 2018. Remain in Mexico was prominent in early 2019. Trump was notoriously hostile to illegal immigration since his election. Despite this overt hostility, there was still a massive peak of illegal immigration in 2019…. It seems to indicate that the impact of policy changes and announcements are minimal.
9.) MPP announcement was followed by a peak of families crossing the border. If it’s valid to attribute the subsequent fall to MPP, it’s just as valid to attribute the rise to MPP too - for example: it meant families no longer had to worry about being deported back to their home countries and had the opposite effect.
The reality is that all these policy implementations - except for perhaps section 42 expulsions had little observable effects on crossings; and section 42 appears to have encouraged repeat offenders over time - with recidivism rising from 7% to 38% focused mainly on single adults.
There was a lull in immigration after Trump was elected - immigration then peaked in 2019, only to return back to Obama levels at the start of 2020, before dropping off the map when Covid hit in March 2020. Rates began picking up again in September 2020 - with august 2020 being higher than the august leading up to the 2019 peak.
Like I said in the remainder of my post; the data seems to clearly point away from any particular policy change being the cause. While perception could be a factor; the single biggest data point that indicates what’s going on is recidivism; which gives the impression that it’s Trumps section 42 expulsions, which Biden is maintaining, that is having the biggest policy impact.
Again, I would presume that all the right wing media telling us the border is open and everyone is being allowed in; is having some level of positive effect on immigration numbers; as is the simple concept that there were many families that didn’t cross last year due to the pandemic that are crossing now.
1.) MPP numbers were tiny. It only hit ~10k by June, at which point crossings were already dropping.
2.) Impacts of MPP on immigrants is still going to be better than much of Latin America living conditions: so still worth the risk and unlikely to be deterrent.
3.) Even your link shows that immigration historically peaks July or prior - then falls. Claiming the fall in June is because of policy is Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.
4.) if the 64% of crossers that came in families were not deterred by family separation, it makes no sense that they happened to be deterred by MPP.
5.) MPP Didn’t apply to unaccompanied minors - but they fell in line with other groups that were in 2019.
6.) Mexican nationals are way up too in 2021 - MPP doesn’t apply to them.
7.) October 2020 border crossings were 72k. That’s the highest October numbers since at least 2013: higher than 2019. It was already showing that immigration was picking up from august 2020, even with Trump and these policies all in place.
8.) Catch and release was “shut down” in 2018. Remain in Mexico was prominent in early 2019. Trump was notoriously hostile to illegal immigration since his election. Despite this overt hostility, there was still a massive peak of illegal immigration in 2019…. It seems to indicate that the impact of policy changes and announcements are minimal.
9.) MPP announcement was followed by a peak of families crossing the border. If it’s valid to attribute the subsequent fall to MPP, it’s just as valid to attribute the rise to MPP too - for example: it meant families no longer had to worry about being deported back to their home countries and had the opposite effect.
The reality is that all these policy implementations - except for perhaps section 42 expulsions had little observable effects on crossings; and section 42 appears to have encouraged repeat offenders over time - with recidivism rising from 7% to 38% focused mainly on single adults.
There was a lull in immigration after Trump was elected - immigration then peaked in 2019, only to return back to Obama levels at the start of 2020, before dropping off the map when Covid hit in March 2020. Rates began picking up again in September 2020 - with august 2020 being higher than the august leading up to the 2019 peak.
Like I said in the remainder of my post; the data seems to clearly point away from any particular policy change being the cause. While perception could be a factor; the single biggest data point that indicates what’s going on is recidivism; which gives the impression that it’s Trumps section 42 expulsions, which Biden is maintaining, that is having the biggest policy impact.
Again, I would presume that all the right wing media telling us the border is open and everyone is being allowed in; is having some level of positive effect on immigration numbers; as is the simple concept that there were many families that didn’t cross last year due to the pandemic that are crossing now.
