Where do you see the US in a 100 years?

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Yassine
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- The US has been the major player on the global stage in the post-WWII, or even earlier. Since, few rivals came close but were never successful in overtaking it, at least economically. Namely, Germany, the Soviet Union & Japan. The Soviets were able to surpass the country militarily, & the Japanese technologically, though only by a small margin, & were not sustained for long periods of time, making the US the best all-rounder superpower in the post-WWII era in economy, military power, international politics, science & technology, industry, finance, & even in soft-power. Add to that the reign of the USD, petrodollar & big data monopoly. 

- In numbers, post-WWII US alone, counting only 1 in 16 human population, contributed over 1/4th to global economy. Its share since dropped to 1/7th global GDP today, though with just 1 in 23 global population. In industrial output, the highs were higher, at 40% global industry during the war, & the lows also lower, down to 1/10th today. The same steady decline is also seen in scientific output, from over 1/3rd of all publications 50 years to less than 1/7th today. – New raising powers, especially in Asia & the Muslim world, have been munching away at American hegemony, slowly but surely. Recently, a new rival superpower is emerging. China is overtaking the US in domains previously dominated by the States one by one. In real GDP, it's closing in to 1/5th global production, from only 1/20th post-WWII, thus already surpassing the US. In industry as well, it's no secret that China is the new factory of the world, pumping almost 3 times US production. In S&E publications, similarly, China overtook the US in 2018, with a third greater output today. In global exports, China far outstrips the US today, hogging 1/7th global market share, compared to 1/12th for the US.  – That, knowing China has 4 1/2 times the population of the US.

- Despite its successes, the American giant rests on much shaky foundations. US Healthcare spending accounts for close to half global spending. A brain MRI in Turkey costs as little as $30, in the US it's around $10,000 or more. Insurance for universal free healthcare (0 out of pocket) costs about $100 a month for a family package in the former, yet costs a leg & an arm & your soul in the latter. – Unlike in European countries & most other developing countries, infrastructure in the States is geared more towards wealthy lifestyle rather than public good. You all know what I'm talking about. – US household debt & national debt is the highest in the world. The average American enjoys $200k extra money worth of goods, services & expenditure he has never worked: $100k owed to banks in consumer debt (i.e. of future money decades worth of savings he has yet to work for), plus another $100k owed to noone (i.e. will never be asked to pay or work for), except the sheer fact of having the USD as a global reserve currency. – Over 50% of researchers/engineers in S&E in the US are foreign born immigrants, the rate goes up to 80% in more technologically geared fields, such as engineering, material science, information technology...etc. However, since 2017 more among them are increasingly choosing to go back home rather than stay in America.


- Considering all the aforementioned facts:
Do you think the US dominance in Tech, Science, Military, Industry, Finance, & Economy on global stage will persist in the near or far future?
Do you think China will fail to sustain its newly acquired predominance over the US in these various domains like its predecessors or will they actually succeed as they promised?
When do you think China will truly overtake the US & how do you imagine that would happen?
What fate do you reckon for the established pegs of US hegemony (such as USD, Petrodollar, GPS, Big Data, Military Complex, SWIFT...etc)?
When do you think the USD will be dethroned from global reserve currency? How do you imagine the fate of average Americans when that happens?
Where do you see the US in 10 years? In 25 years? In 50 years? In 100 years?
Where do you see China in 10 years? In 25 years? In 50 years? Where do you see the rest of the world in that period & beyond?
#2
Incel-chud
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TLDR?
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US doesn't dominate science, Europe does and always has, however the edge is not as severe as it once was. There is, however, a permanent fact; CERN is the pinnacle of scientific development and is in Switzerland. As for Germany and UK in particular they are powerhouses at scientific innovation and many of the best at science will move to those 3 countries (Switzerland, UK and Germany) specifically due to the fact that the research there is groundbreaking. However, in California in particular (for the US) it is definitely on par especially if we talk technological and computing science. Japan and South Korea will come to truly rival it but since Japan is specialising into robotics, Japan's edge will be in a field that the rest of the world is kind of willing to let it win at as it's already so far ahead in that. Japan vs California will become quite intense in terms of robotics rivalry as we are entering the age of robotics for sure if we talk 100 years from now. China kind of rivals it in biology but since so much of China's work is top secret for the sake of it, we can never really know.

Militaristically, I definitely think the edge will and has already reduce(d). We'd be seriously looking to Asia, not just Europe to rival that. Australia and New Zealand will be aligned with both (Asia due to proximity and Europe due to relations with the UK and Ireland).

I think in finance, US will always dominate because that's its 'thing' and because the world kind of lets them dominate that. The agreed 'universal currency' in discussion is the US dollar and US is just so influential internationally that their currency will always be a very important one.


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Yassine
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@Incel-chud
TLDR?
- US was the shit, but it's going to shit. It has shitload of problems & new shit in town to contend with. Considering all the aforementioned facts:
Do you think the US dominance in Tech, Science, Military, Industry, Finance, & Economy on global stage will persist in the near or far future?
Do you think China will fail to sustain its newly acquired predominance over the US in these various domains like its predecessors or will they actually succeed as they promised?
When do you think China will truly overtake the US & how do you imagine that would happen?
What fate do you reckon for the established pegs of US hegemony (such as USD, Petrodollar, GPS, Big Data, Military Complex, SWIFT...etc)?
When do you think the USD will be dethroned from global reserve currency? How do you imagine the fate of average Americans when that happens?
Where do you see the US in 10 years? In 25 years? In 50 years? In 100 years?
Where do you see China in 10 years? In 25 years? In 50 years? Where do you see the rest of the world in that period & beyond? 

#5
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@Yassine
There is a secret race between China and the United States to develop a super artificial intelligence. Whoever wins will control the world, if they can control the AI. They will be the last superpower. 

China has a slight advantage, because they don't have morals to slow them down
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@Incel-chud
Japan has already won.
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@RationalMadman
That would be a blessing if true
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Yassine
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@RationalMadman
US doesn't dominate science, Europe does and always has, however the edge is not as severe as it once was.
- This is drivel. I guess you are not familiar with the world of Science & research. Also, it's the same for Europe, +half researches are immigrants.


There is, however, a permanent fact; CERN is the pinnacle of scientific development and is in Switzerland. As for Germany and UK in particular they are powerhouses at scientific innovation and many of the best at science will move to those 3 countries (Switzerland, UK and Germany) specifically due to the fact that the research there is groundbreaking.
- Are you living in the 80s? CERN is international. You know where the best research from CERN users is published? American or Chinese journals.


However, in California in particular (for the US) it is definitely on par especially if we talk technological and computing science.
- On par, huh! Europe is a third world country compared to the US or China in Computer Science. It's not just about the number of publication, Science & Technology are largely driven by groundbreaking research & breakthroughs, which much less of that happens in Europe than in the US.


Japan and South Korea will come to truly rival it but since Japan is specialising into robotics, Japan's edge will be in a field that the rest of the world is kind of willing to let it win at as it's already so far ahead in that. Japan vs California will become quite intense in terms of robotics rivalry as we are entering the age of robotics for sure if we talk 100 years from now.
- You're truly living in the 80s. What? They taught you this back in high school? China has far surpassed Japan or the US -or as a matter of fact, the rest of the world combined- in Robotics.


China kind of rivals it in biology but since so much of China's work is top secret for the sake of it, we can never really know.
- In total scientific output, China just outstripped the EU & has already surpassed the US by a significant margin. In scientific breakthrough, the EU is lagging far behind, while the US is barely catching up now. But in virtually all technical fields, China far surpasses the US. In the field of Chemistry, for instance, China = 150k citations, US = 68k citations [2020 numbers]. In Computer Science, China = 125k publications, US = 71k publications...


Militaristically, I definitely think the edge will and has already reduce(d). We'd be seriously looking to Asia, not just Europe to rival that. Australia and New Zealand will be aligned with both (Asia due to proximity and Europe due to relations with the UK and Ireland).
- US in this?


I think in finance, US will always dominate because that's its 'thing' and because the world kind of lets them dominate that. The agreed 'universal currency' in discussion is the US dollar and US is just so influential internationally that their currency will always be a very important one.
- That's obviously nonsense. The US was successful in striking a deal with Saudis back in the 70s to establish the petrodollar, hence abolish the gold standard for a USD standard, because it was predominant. That hegemony is waning by the day, we are already seeing efforts by many countries bullied by the US, like Russia, Mexico, India, Turkey & China trying to move away from USD standard. The only reason China is not ditching the Dollar is because they are still an export-based economy, they like their stuff to be cheap so they can hog market shares. Once their economy becomes consumption-based, they will naturally & hastily ditch the Dollar. 
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Yassine
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@Incel-chud
There is a secret race between China and the United States to develop a super artificial intelligence. Whoever wins will control the world, if they can control the AI. They will be the last superpower. 
- Among other technologies mobilized by China as part of their Fourth Industrial Revolution project. Such as: 5G, Blockchain, PVs, EVs, drone tech, semiconductos, quantum computing...etc.


China has a slight advantage, because they don't have morals to slow them down
- On that basis, the US should've been light years ahead. 
#10
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I am very familiar with science in terms of which country and corporations are best at it, but think what you want.
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Yassine
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@RationalMadman
I am very familiar with science in terms of which country and corporations are best at it, but think what you want.
- I think BS. You don't have to embarrass yourself like that. This is my world. 

#12
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I'm probably more bullish on the USA remaining dominant than most people here due to it's dominance in technology, although 100 years is such a long time that it's hard to tell. I'm a little skeptical of China becoming a super power. It's possible that they'll pull it off this time, but China has an extremely long history of being a paper tiger and they'll be facing a crippling demographic crisis in 25-30 years if they don't get their birthrate up soon. I'm mostly okay with the US losing it's super power status if it happens, with the caveat of what you're changing to is much more important than what you're changing from. But I don't think the USA has done a very good or responsible job of "leading" the world, at least not in my lifetime. It's been one embarrassment after another, few if any of which actually benefited the American people. 



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Yassine
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@thett3
I'm probably more bullish on the USA remaining dominant than most people here due to it's dominance in technology
- That's in the past. Do you have reasons why you believe this will be sustained further into the future? We can see China's power & influence rising & the US's declining day after day.


, although 100 years is such a long time that it's hard to tell. I'm a little skeptical of China becoming a super power. It's possible that they'll pull it off this time, but China has an extremely long history of being a paper tiger and they'll be facing a crippling demographic crisis in 25-30 years if they don't get their birthrate up soon.
- Even if China becomes Japan in 25 years, by then it will already be a high income country. That means double the economy of the US + EU combined. 40% of the Chinese population are still rural, the drive towards urbanization isn't stopping any time soon. On average, rural to urban migration raises income 3 folds per person. More engineers graduate in China every 4 years than all active engineers in the US. A stagnated high income China in 25 years will be to the US what the US is to Japan today, unless China somehow stops growing in the upcoming few years for whatever reason, which is highly unlikely.


I'm mostly okay with the US losing it's super power status if it happens, with the caveat of what you're changing to is much more important than what you're changing from.
- How do you imagine the US becoming without superpower status? The US will have to tread like everybody else in limited ability to create money for stimulating the economy, while having to deal with the massive dump of USD, which will exponentially increase inflation. 


But I don't think the USA has done a very good or responsible job of "leading" the world, at least not in my lifetime. It's been one embarrassment after another, few if any of which actually benefited the American people. 
- Exactly! Sadly, that's the price of the American dream. Immediate self-gratification today, but a burden to cripple the next generations. On one hand, creating the largest Ponzi scheme in existence coupled with inexhaustible source of currency at the expense of the rest of the world may generate the most successful & wealthiest human generation, but it's hopelessly unsustainable. On the other, inciting enemies across the globe & causing heavy grievances among most peoples of the world to maximize national interests & wealth may not be concerning today when the US the military power to deter any retaliations, but the next American generations will pay the brunt of their predecessor's actions. Grievances die hard. The moment the US shows signs of weakness, all the skeletons will come out of their closets.

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@Yassine
China has a slight advantage, because they don't have morals to slow them down
- On that basis, the US should've been light years ahead. 
Why don't you move to China to see if they have superior morals. 
#15
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@Yassine
I find it genuinely amusing how you start threads like this posing as some openminded, 'genuine' type and something about the way I write or whatever exposes you without me even slightly aggressing against you.

Your arrogance is not appealing to most here, some don't seem to care or notice though. It doesn't add weight to your arguments to belittle and insult the other.
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@Yassine
Western Europe has been the hub of science for a long while now. You can believe whatever you want about history or the present, you like to brag nonsense a lot on other threads so why should this be any different. China and the US are huge, Europe collectively thwarts them because it has so many nations that are brilliant at science, the most noticeable being Switzerland, Germany and UK are heavily dedicated to it. France isn't far behind, it just tries less at it.

You can believe whatever you want about it, Pick any western european nation and observe its scientific development through from the 1500s to now and you will see what I am saying, they pioneered the entire planet's science, the others caught onto their discoveries and built upon their theories. I am not sure what you are trying to say here.

There of course were Greeks but they were more math oriented than science itself due also to the technology they had available back then and that's still Europe but admittedly not western europe.

#17
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Rome 2.0

#18
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Or we’re underwater like Al Gore predicted we would be. Couple decades late but who’s counting?

#19
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Looking at large trading blocs roughly by continent, overall I see North America declined, Europe declined, Africa and Asia increased. In terms of influence.  
#20
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On the North American tectonic plate, I guess, 100 years amounts to not huge tectonic movements.

However, we can technically see the uS on other plates if invasions occur.
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@Reece101
Weird prediction other than Asia.
#22
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Great answer.

You beat me to it.
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@RationalMadman
Wait until 400 years into the future (give or take 100), an African trade union will be leading the world.
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@Reece101
Africa, in general, just doesn't seem to want to compete on that level or dominate the world. The more competitive people within Africa emigrate or if it's financial victory they want, they remain and stay wealthy and powerful.

I don't see it happening ever, no matter how the future plays out. Even South America is more likely to reach that stage and currently they're lagging quite a bit.
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@RationalMadman
Dominating the world is too strong a phrase for a interconnected global economic community. From what I think,  Africa is a steady/fast growing continent when it comes to organisation, economics, population.
 

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@Reece101
Are you suggesting that the ones already ahead of it aren't progressing themselves?
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@RationalMadman
No, I’m saying Africa has a lot of potential in becoming a very influential trading bloc although prosperity is rising everywhere for the most part. 
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@Incel-chud
Why don't you move to China to see if they have superior morals. 
- Who says I haven't. What's your answer then, where do you see the US in 100 years? The world?

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Yassine
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@RationalMadman
I find it genuinely amusing how you start threads like this posing as some openminded, 'genuine' type and something about the way I write or whatever exposes you without me even slightly aggressing against you.
- Ahem! Last time I checked it said DEBATEart.com on the link bar. I'm openminded to arguments, not feelings. f you have good arguments, no one is stopping you. If you don't, have the decency to admit it.


Your arrogance is not appealing to most here, some don't seem to care or notice though. It doesn't add weight to your arguments to belittle and insult the other.
- Dude, throughout this whole thread you've been spouting your bullshit presenting your wishful feelings as fact. Enough nonsense.


Western Europe has been the hub of science for a long while now.
- Not for a while, no. Though, a close second after the US, now pushed back to third with the rise of China in 2015-2016. In 2019 numbers (knowing that China since grew even larger), the scientific output of China (citable) = 505k, of the US = 492k, of the Europe = 639k. However, in the top 1% most-highly-cited publications, China leads for the first time at 8.4k, the US then came in second at 7.9k, while Europe lagged at 7.3k. The ratios are skewed further towards China & the US the higher the citations. 


You can believe whatever you want about history or the present, you like to brag nonsense a lot on other threads so why should this be any different.
- You can't believe whatever you want buddy! You either know or you don't. Clearly you don't, since you're literally making shit up.


China and the US are huge, Europe collectively thwarts them because it has so many nations that are brilliant at science,
- Most best scientists & universities are in the US & China, Europe lags quite behind.  


the most noticeable being Switzerland, Germany and UK are heavily dedicated to it. France isn't far behind, it just tries less at it.
- Aren't you tired of bullshitting? Your feelings =/= reality! The UK & Germany do indeed have remarkable output, since 3/4th of the former's researchers in S&E are foreign & half of the latter's. – Let's see... countries with more scientific output than Switzerland: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, UK, & US. – In technical sciences & engineering (i.e. non-social & health related "sciences") Western countries generally hugely underperform compared to others, knowing that half to 3/4th researchers in these countries are themselves immigrants (the rate is 56% in Switzerland overall & 72% in non-social fields). In Computer Science, for instance, Switzerland (80% international researchers) gained 4.5k citations in 2020, compared to 8.5k citations by Saudi Arabia & 6.2k citations by Pakistan, despite the fact that the western country has an overall larger scientific output.


You can believe whatever you want about it, Pick any western european nation and observe its scientific development through from the 1500s to now and you will see what I am saying, they pioneered the entire planet's science, the others caught onto their discoveries and built upon their theories. I am not sure what you are trying to say here.
- That's a European revisionist fantasy & has no ground in reality. Science was pioneered by Muslims, which the Europeans learned & credited it to themselves later on. It was Muslims who refuted Greek Natural Philosophy, in favor of more abduction & experimentation. From Ibn Haytham’s (d. 1040) first refutation of Ptolemy & al-Ghazali's (d. 1111) refutation of Aristotle, & their introduction of the scientific method, the Tanthir theory (by al-Ghazali) & the empirical method (by Ibn Haytham) to the subsequent celestial models proposed by dozens of great Muslim astronomers across five centuries that Ali Qushji (d. 1474) comes to finalize the models of his predecessors Bitruji (d. 1204) and Tusi (d. 1274) and Ibn Satir (d. 1375) and his own master Ulugh Bey (d. 1449) to propose a new paradigm of astronomical study of celestial motion devoid of philosophical implications. Qushji, pioneer of the great Samarkand Observatory, was invited to Istanbul by Mehmet the Conqueror to teach astronomy in Ayasofya, where set up a new observatory. His evidence for the rotation of the Earth appears a century later in Copernicus’ publications, along with the mathematical models, the astronomical tools, the terminology & even the diagrams & sketches -often in exact replication- found in Qushji's works. In fact, starting in the 15th century, Arabic chairs were set up across Europe to systematically acquire & study Arab sciences. In Oxford's Arabic chair, where people like Newton studied, 15,000 Arabic manuscripts were collected. Centuries before Newton, Biruni (d. 1048) had already established that gravitation is inversely proportional to altitude, Abu Barakat (d. 1166) had already proven that force is proportional to acceleration, and Ibn Baja (d. 1138) had already shown that for every action there is an opposite reaction...etc. There are over 120,000 such manuscripts across European historic higher institutions & libraries today, which they seized from Muslim lands, studied and appropriated, then shelved and denied. – This whole sickness of Eurocentrism, aka Euro-insecuritism, started in the 19th century to rewrite Europe's history, make it into revolutions & miracles, & remove any part any other civilization played in their success.


There of course were Greeks but they were more math oriented than science itself due also to the technology they had available back then and that's still Europe but admittedly not western europe.
- Greeks did not have much maths either, they had Natural Philosophy. Euclidean geometry is a compendium of Egyptian/Babylonian mathematics, compiled in Egypt & an Egyptian Greek. Also, Western Europe pre-1500s was a wasteland of ignorance, & one of the most backwards & poor regions in the world then. 


Weird prediction other than Asia.
- Do you any objective criteria as why that is wrong?


Africa, in general, just doesn't seem to want to compete on that level or dominate the world. The more competitive people within Africa emigrate or if it's financial victory they want, they remain and stay wealthy and powerful.
- In a few decades, Black Africa will have 5 times the population of the entire West, the ratio was reverse a century ago. Western bullying & exploitation of African countries will increasingly become unattainable, which means more chances to develop. We are already seeing this in countries where China is more present, such as in Kenya, Rwanda & Ethiopia, boasting some of the highest growth rates in the world recently (+10%). China is outsourcing production for its domestic consumption to Southeast Asia & mainly to Africa, just like the US outsourced its industry to China. What makes you believe that Africa will not develop?


I don't see it happening ever, no matter how the future plays out. Even South America is more likely to reach that stage and currently they're lagging quite a bit.
- Do you have any actual reasons to say this or are you just going by your "gut" (aka racist) feelings? We know from history, when Europe was in the pit back when the largest library had few hundred volumes, the Mali Empire, on the African side, spanned millions of km2 across 400 cities; the Sankore University of Timbuktu. hosted 25 thousand students from around the world, and a collection of one million books. King Keita II commissioned the building of 2000 ships to cross the Atlantic Ocean and explore the New World (2 centuries before Columbus); and King Mansa Musa is hailed as the richest man in recorded history. Civilizations rise & fall.

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Yassine
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@Reece101
Looking at large trading blocs roughly by continent, overall I see North America declined, Europe declined, Africa and Asia increased. In terms of influence.  
- This is already ongoing. Where do you see the US in 2050 & in 2100?
 

Wait until 400 years into the future (give or take 100), an African trade union will be leading the world.
- Why not 100 years or less? Africa's current average income is around $5k, which is about Europe's average post-WWII, & China's income 20 years ago. It will also have the largest & youngest population of any region or race by the end of the century.


Dominating the world is too strong a phrase for a interconnected global economic community. From what I think,  Africa is a steady/fast growing continent when it comes to organisation, economics, population.
- At least you're much better informed than some delusional people here, are you American? It is as you said, many parts of the continent are growing at fast paces. People forget that China was a lot poorer than Africa in the 1960s, in fact it had one of lowest incomes in the world. Today, China is outsourcing into Africa, which is a great opportunity for the continent, the same way the US's outsourcing into China was. 


No, I’m saying Africa has a lot of potential in becoming a very influential trading bloc although prosperity is rising everywhere for the most part. 
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