When you guys tag wylted I don't see it. I am Wyited
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NFL Mafia [DP2]
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We only know of two town vanillas and an alleged hated townie. Nobody should be stating whether they have a role for really obvious reasons, unless it's to reveal some useful information or they get pressured with votes.
I think Pie sucked this game. I can see Speed being town now too, that or bussing two mafia. I definitely still have town on Earth.
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@Danielle
Roles are less fun than reads tbh.
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@badger
agree
We need to head a new direction, keeping in mind that scum are likely hiding in NFC West and AFC South.
Let's do some POE.
Eliminated:
Oromagi - Town Vanila (Note: AFC South)
Pie - Town Vanilla
In the Hunt:
1. Whiteflame - lean town. he's super hard to read. What's worth something is the fact he resisted the Oro train, and in the end never hopped on. (Note: NFC West)
2. Earth - null/lean scum. next to nothing to read off him. He comes in with an occasional question/comment but nothing of substance. Standard play for both town and scum for him as far as I can tell.
3. Badger - null. I'm not sure what to think with badger. He acts relatively townie, but his reads are almost all gut-based, and any reasoning he gives for his reads tends to piggyback off of someone else's logic. He never presents his own. This allows him to jump on lynch trains pretty easily if he were scum.
4. Greyparrot - I am actually reconsidering my original scum read on GP. Not to disclose any unnecessary information, but I've realized that his role makes a lot of sense balance-wise.
5. That2 - null/lean scum. Seems relatively townie behaviorally, but I do not have any experience with them as scum to my recollection. Their sudden vanilla claim is a point of interest. The scum team may have prompted the claim in order to stick to plan, as with 2 confirmed vanillas already, any additional vanilla claims down the road will immediately be suspect due to balancing issues. Is anyone else vanilla? (Note: AFC South)
6. SirAnon - null/lean scum. about as he has always been. He could be scum or town easily. his proactivity in "preventing a scum hammer" comes off as showy. "Hey look at me I'm a helpful townie!" (Note: NFC West)
7. Wylted (subbing in for Barney) - To be honest I'm not seeing a ton of reason for a Wylted lynch. Barney was defensive last DP but, as I've been saying, his reaction was fairly understandable and the original rationale behind his lynch was weak.
Danielle is probably right here:
They killed Pie because either (1) they are trying to frame Barney based on their OMGUS exchange; (2a) they assumed Pie had a power role and/or would be a good player to take out based on being among the most aggressive and active players DP1;
It's most likely a combination of those two factors.
Overall lean-town for now. He is providing good insights and seems genuinely interested in scumhunting. Plus Barney was on GP last DP, and as we've established, he didn't have any incentive to be doing that as scum.
8. MisterChris - town (Note: NFC West)
9. Speedrace - lean-town. Inactive mostly but that's to be expected. Hard to read as always. Like with Barney, the fact that he was on GP to the end sticks out to me as town stubbornness. You would think he would hop on a mislynch train as scum if he could.
10. Danielle - lean town. She's pretty logical with her reads, and has taken relatively pro-town stances so far. (Note: AFC South)
Conclusion:
SirAnon, That2, and Earth are by far our strongest targets this DP. All except Earth are part of the 3 player divisions (AFC South and NFC West) which likely contain a scum in each. Oro's loss means the scum in AFC South is either Danielle or That2. That2 is the strongest scum candidate of the two. Further, the presence of any additional vanillas would cause me to seriously question That2's claim, especially since the balance is already in question with just 2 confirmed and 1 claimed.
With NFC West, SirAnon is the best scum candidate.
Earth may be the final scum, outside of either division, but I can't say anything for certain.
For now, I'd like to pressure That2.
VTL That2User for claim.
SirAnon, That2, and Earth are by far our strongest targets this DP. All except Earth are part of the 3 player divisions (AFC South and NFC West) which likely contain a scum in each. Oro's loss means the scum in AFC South is either Danielle or That2. That2 is the strongest scum candidate of the two. Further, the presence of any additional vanillas would cause me to seriously question That2's claim, especially since the balance is already in question with just 2 confirmed and 1 claimed.
With NFC West, SirAnon is the best scum candidate.
Earth may be the final scum, outside of either division, but I can't say anything for certain.
For now, I'd like to pressure That2.
VTL That2User for claim.
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@Danielle
@Greyparrot
@whiteflame
@Speedrace
@PREZ-HILTON
Please read above.
Official Vote Count
Whiteflame (2/6) - Wylted, That2
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris
VTL That2User for claim.
They have already claimed, so this makes no sense lol. Voting them because I think they’re the most probable scum player, rather.
I'm pretty sure my reads have been entirely my own this game. I'm also pretty damn confident in my That2User townread especially this DP. Wanting to sheep dead townies is always a huge towntell. It's pawning off responsibility on absolutely confirmed town basically. Not that it's pro-town or good play or anything obviously, but definitely town mentality.
I want to lynch Greyparrot. We definitely lynch in blues here.
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@Danielle
@That2User
@PREZ-HILTON
Alright, so a lot to unpack. Literally. I just moved all the big stuff into my house, so I'm exhausted. Still, I'll at least put in the time to make one big post before dinner and give my reads after I've had more downtime to consider.
First off, as someone who wasn't on the lynch, I think pursuing anyone on the basis that they were on the lynch alone isn't going to get us anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if some scum were on the lynch, but Pie was also on the lynch, and he was clearly town.
Second, I agree with Danielle regarding why mafia would kill Pie, though I'll add a couple of things. The question of whether Barney as scum would kill the main person who was calling him out is all WIFOM, so I'm reticent to go with the potential framing reason for why Pie was killed. Pie tends to be rather good at finding scum, especially post DP1, largely as an extension of that aggression and activity.
Third, and apparently I have to direct this at Wylted, your reasons for sussing me are all absurd. Responding to someone who makes a long post in a game they are not yet a part of (you jumped the gun and posted when you shouldn't have), a post that no one else chooses to point to or discuss at all, would have been incredibly sus because it would have been needlessly defensive. Beyond that, every single reason you listed is such a terrible basis for sussing me that I'm not surprised no one cared. GP regularly posts his full claim in his very first post in DP1. It's less common for him to keep information in reserve. He has full claimed when it was outright anti-town to full claim, and since he never even tried to suggest he had a PR, the notion that he was actively baiting an NK is just absurd. As for using big words, you know that's a baseless reason to call me out, since that's how I always post, whether I'm town or scum.
Fourth, That2User, I'm still trying to figure out why you're sussing me through all this, but deciding to claim Vanilla at the start of the DP was pretty anti-town even if it's hard to believe you'd do it as scum (strange choice for scum to claim Vanilla when we already know there were two Vanillas in this game). From what I can tell in this DP, you shifted from sussing Wylted and pursuing a full claim from him (I can't find anywhere that he posted his role, but apparently you were satisfied because... WyIted said he wouldn't claim unless he was closer to L1, I guess?) to sussing me apparently entirely on the basis that I'm pretty good at this game. Setting aside the fact that what you described (being unreadable, perceptive and effective at defending myself) are also points we can make about several other players in this game, it's an absurd reason to be pushing for a lynch, let alone for a full claim. We have a lot of behavioral information on the table, but you're still relying on preconceptions of me? I understand Wylted because he tends to tunnel based on small cues that he thinks gives someone away, even if they're absurd, but this is jut lazy.
Alright, I'm going to take a break and then give my reads after I've eaten something. And, in case it wasn't obvious, I'm not claiming with this pressure from Wylted and That2.
Do we really have absolutely no reports this DP?
VTL Greyparrot
Official Vote Count
Whiteflame (2/6) - Wylted, That2
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris
Greyparrot (1/6) - Badger
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@badger
Even Badger hates the Falcolns.
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@MisterChris
We need to head a new direction, keeping in mind that scum are likely hiding in NFC West and AFC South.
Why do you think this? Because there are 3 claims from the division?
SirAnon, That2, and Earth are by far our strongest targets this DP. All except Earth are part of the 3 player divisions (AFC South and NFC West) which likely contain a scum in each. Oro's loss means the scum in AFC South is either Danielle or That2. That2 is the strongest scum candidate of the two. Further, the presence of any additional vanillas would cause me to seriously question That2's claim, especially since the balance is already in question with just 2 confirmed and 1 claimed.
It seems based on statistical chance alone there would be higher chance of scum among us, but other than the mathematical probability I don't think the division has anything to do with theme split as far as I can tell right now. The two town vanilla justifications seem pretty different. On one hand Texans = vanilla because they are new and haven't won anything; on the other hand the Bears = vanilla despite being one of the most storied franchises in the NFL with two Superbowl appearances and one win.
I could see that2user's claim being legit vanilla based on all the teams in the AFC South being relatively vanilla, although it was anti town for him to claim that off the bat. He seemed a bit eager to go for obvious targets at the start of the day phase. I feel like scum wouldn't be so obvious and would try to let town take the lead at the start of DP2.
Still not sold on Greyparrot being town. Going after Barney seemed like a novice scum move given the OMGUS with Pie, unless it was a novice town move given the OMGUS with Pie lol. As noted I think Barney (Wylted) is likely town for aforementioned reasons. Greyparrot hasn't posted much regarding his reads and seems to be wanting to lay low and hope/wait for attention to be drawn elsewhere now that he's already claimed.
I agree with most of badger's posts, though I am not as sold as he is about Earth being town. I'm null on whiteflame, SirAnon and MisterChris.
Speed - null for now but very skeptical of him. Like I said last DP I could see Speed as scum swooping in later on in the game after laying low and being like "Hey guys I'm here, sorry I was busy before but anyways here's what we're gonna do" and then town just letting him lead their demise. He seemed interested in playing, saying he was gonna get on a laptop last DP or whatever but then hasn't posted much. He's also not really taking a position on anyone or anything so far other than potentially MC's activity level.
Wow, there was some actual activity today.
Regarding the accusations against whiteflame: Wylted's case against whiteflame is, quite frankly, the worst I've ever seen, and I've been personally targeted by some dumb ones. That2's case boils down to "He's hard to read and good at defending himself," which is true of several different players in this game. Singling out, and possibly even obsessing over, whiteflame makes no sense.
That2's claim was dumb, but I townread it. I don't see why scum would claim without pressure or why they would claim vanilla.
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@badger
I don't think Wylted is going to be mafia. I was thinking last DP that if Barney was mafia, he would have voted oro. His voting down Greyparrot till the end felt like townie stubbornness. I mean, I was also considering that he and oro might have been mafia together, but since oro flips town, I think Barney is probably town. Mafia would have been trying to stay alive there, voting the next person with a high number of votes on them, not stubbornly voting like he was.
As much as I disliked Barney's defensiveness, this argument makes sense to me.
Do we really have absolutely no reports this DP?
There are likely reports not worth reporting. For example if a cop investigated someone innocent or a watcher did not see anyone visit, there would be no reason to announce that right now and out their roles. Only if one of them or their target were under threat of being lynched would it be appropriate to reveal a report.
Given that all living players have posted I guess we can assume there are no reports worth sharing. Let's please stop trying to out the power roles for no reason. Can someone post the list of all the claims we have so far? I would do it but I have to sign off for now and honestly am a little too lazy atm but would like to see it.
Interesting. I just got a notification for a post on this thread, but when I clicked on it, the URL could not be found. I wonder if someone posted and then immediately deleted it?
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@Danielle
Forgot to add oromagi as vanilla townie.
Also Chris claimed Not Seahawks, and whiteflame claimed Seahawks.
Living:
Whiteflame NFC West Seattle Seahawks
Earth AFC East
Badger NFC North
Speedrace AFC North
Danielle AFC South
Eliminated:
Pie NFC North Chicago Bears vanilla townie
oromagi AFC South Houston Texans vanilla townie
There are likely reports not worth reporting.
If we ML here, we have potentially 3 days of LYLO. At this point, everything is worth reporting.
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@badger
And if we out power roles when they don't have useful information, mafia will kill them, reducing the information we have during those 3 days of LYLO, thereby reducing our odds of winning.
I'm not saying to outright claim, but don't be too shy about having a role. In mafia, ML maths is king. It's imperative that we retain our ML into next DP.
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@badger
How would we gain any information from that?
I'm just saying people should heavily allude to what they know. If someone got Greyparrot for innocent for example, that is information we need right now. Learning that 2 days into the DP is a terrible use of a very important DP.